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  • #149,221
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:33pm Mar 31, 2017 2:33pm
Sorry, this genius scheduled a Friday after lunch meeting...

DXY Q Range:
Top = 104
Flip = 100
Bottom = 96

Q2: Q close is bullish above 100.
  • #149,222
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:45pm Mar 31, 2017 2:45pm
In colored boxes.

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  • #149,223
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:46pm Mar 31, 2017 2:46pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Ok thanks all... Now and here some will struggle can you define the current range in play (not a single candle but the proper range). Please use Q/M and W at minimum. Don't go below that because we are defining a mid term outlook and play as in the UBS report. Why you are doing this? The beauty of Dollar is that is not tradable alone (well you could in illiquid futures or CFD but thats not why this instrument is important). Being in synch with Dollar in the mid (and short term) will make your life a LOT EASIER and it will put you miles away...
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  • #149,224
  • Edited 2:56pm Mar 31, 2017 2:46pm | Edited 2:56pm
So 2 is the last one and 3 is the current.
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  • #149,225
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:50pm Mar 31, 2017 2:50pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} @Earleone I strongly disagree. How can the top of the current range in play be outside of the current range?
I use harmonic to measure last wave ( that was to above the extreme ) with the next possible high ( A way of drawing a channel ) . It is possible it is outside of the current range. But so was the last wave that actually became that wide. But it is possible better to mark my top as a extreme and put the top at fib 138.2 extension ( 103.5 ). So updated here.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #149,226
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:57pm Mar 31, 2017 2:57pm
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  • #149,227
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:57pm Mar 31, 2017 2:57pm
Third round of closes but rather irrelevant this Q. US equities and Treasuries closing at irrelevant levels with nothing in play.

After the initial knee jerk reaction Trump rally is over. Markets starting to demand a bit more from Trump on the economic front especially since the last flop in the political front.

Super strong numbers keep pouring in the US and markets will happily extend the grace period as much as possible for tax cuts and free money from the Administration. If its not cut for the biggest C's, it will be via infrastructure and fiscal blow out (basically crowding out environmental and public money to big and polluting industries) and if everything fail we still have war and conflict to push oil and defence. ...so way too many options still in the table with good numbers ....

Wrapping up no updates in outlooks, all the same and nothing worth mentioning TA wise. Expecting chop and grinding higher in a very bumpy moves until further data from the political and public money front ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,228
  • Mar 31, 2017 3:25pm Mar 31, 2017 3:25pm
Tried to stuff the Euro's entire history into 3 candles but I was afraid tradingview platform would catch fire so here's the yearly. Flip is kind of interesting if you like the one I got there.
Bullish.
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  • #149,229
  • Mar 31, 2017 3:36pm Mar 31, 2017 3:36pm
bit late to the party, roughly the same here goose..
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  • #149,230
  • Edited 4:55pm Mar 31, 2017 4:20pm | Edited 4:55pm
Looking at it that far back and seeing the LT flip at 92 - I can see why you would consider this very bullish. The bounce off the low from May, 2016 was authoritative and here we've just now closed above the mid-term flip (100).

(edit) If the DXY had closed @ or above 101.50 - then it would be above the flip ST, MT and LT. I guess we're just shy of full alignment: ST (Neutral), MT (Bullish), LT (Bullish).
  • #149,231
  • Mar 31, 2017 5:15pm Mar 31, 2017 5:15pm
Final closes in the FX board Dollar holding 100.xx as widely expected since the FED, Sterling couldn't take 1.255x but sitting in imminent break up alerts in the short term to the test to top of the range. Irrelevant close in JPY and AUD but for 2nd consecutive quarter a very bearish close in CAD. The moment Dollar finds a top CAD is set for a major long/mid term swing ....thats for later in the year..

...and we are rolling in the Euro as expected since Europe went home air below 1.068x but we didn't have time to even test 1.064x. Here a flawless an in perfect synch 'Midas Touch' weeks in the pair.

An irrelevant Q close in the Euro (long term), a _____ (I leave this open for the thread to give the final verdict as I know a lot of people has been tracking this one) close in the mid term, and very slightly bullish daily close in the short term.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,232
  • Mar 31, 2017 5:40pm Mar 31, 2017 5:40pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...he terminology (you can use whatever is the way you use as its irrelevant). For the sake of the argument we are going to use sisse terms: -> A swing: is price range that is composed by many legs (waves) it can be a continuation/extension swing or a retrace/pullback swing. -> A wave (or leg) is the ebb and flow that are inside of a swing until is completed. sisse PS: US equities closing next
Quoting PAStalker
bit late to the party, roughly the same here goose.. {image}
@PAStalker Spot on.

Thats exactly the long term view that I was looking for.

I added some quick notes highlighting the last 2 long term swings (trend and the current pullback) and the mark of inner waves forming the swing....

-> A swing: is price range that is composed by many legs (waves) it can be a continuation/extension swing or a retrace/pullback swing.
-> A wave (or leg) is the ebb and flow that are inside of a swing until is completed.

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I leave this open for the weekend as there is plenty to digest and for those who haven't had any AHA moments yet ...this maybe be one of the last chances ....

++++Demystifying institutional analysis - Thinking by Yourself ++++



V. Bullish

sisse

Earleone

ptoftangency


Bullish

@UBS (Slightly bullish oversold till end of April)

goosebone

gazpacho

chino

ashenv


Neutral

@Pharm0r

IMARICH1

suntan

Fadhl

primejarvis


Bearish

felixjabreu

ktoTam

Paintomaker


V. Bearish

gatorinla


Q3: Now putting in context direction with the current leg I ask the same question this time to actually define the TA view. I the current leg are we going:

a. UP to complete a pullback
b. DOWN we already completed the pullback
c. NEUTRAL we are stating a consolidation at the top before the long term, swing down with the trend starts.
d. None of the above / I am lost...

sisse

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,233
  • Edited Apr 1, 2017 1:58pm Mar 31, 2017 5:51pm | Edited Apr 1, 2017 1:58pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} No you are too close to the market for what we are trading to do. Its good you post this because some people have ask 'how do you define a range' (even if its the wrong one). A couple of hints that may trigger some !!!: 1. You need to zoom out and try to find a proper wave / range ...yours is not really a proper range.. 2. As you can see your range is pretty much one candle in December. Can you tell what happened in those days?(highlight recommend this concept to dig deeper*) Sure FED hikes. Can you mark March hikes ...can you find anything...
Well this is a quick glance
about buttom and top im using the context where you say "
max level that you know you will 100% WRONG -----> A key support you expect on this side ---> FLIP (What is the level that will balance to one side or the other ---> A key resistance you expect on this side ---> the max target you can see in the swing "
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Q3: Now putting in context direction with the current leg I ask the same question this time to actually define the TA view. I the current leg are we going:

a. UP to complete a pullback

- i also wanted to share my Monthly MAP

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might have same mistake like the first post on week but will wait
  • #149,234
  • Edited 6:46pm Mar 31, 2017 5:53pm | Edited 6:46pm
A lot to absorb. Good weekend all. This thread continues to be far and away the best thing going on the ff network. Big thanks to all participating.
  • #149,235
  • Mar 31, 2017 5:56pm Mar 31, 2017 5:56pm
Quoting PAStalker
bit late to the party, roughly the same here goose.. {image}
I'm afraid the only 'AHA moment' I'm having is that we are pretty much at the same level as 17 years ago! Spooky
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #149,236
  • Mar 31, 2017 6:29pm Mar 31, 2017 6:29pm
Thanks to everyone for this virtual but amazing journey!
I choose
c. NEUTRAL we are stating a consolidation at the top before the long term, swing down with the trend starts.

I would change my neutral to Very bearich. Too late!
  • #149,237
  • Edited 6:57pm Mar 31, 2017 6:39pm | Edited 6:57pm
Q3. A - UP to complete a pullback (maybe to 106 or 110 level, then it gets more complicated)

This exercise is making me sit here and remember what it was like back in those days of the last swing highs in 2001. 2001 was a trifecta of terrorism, ff rate cuts and dot-com pullback all in confluence... Politically there are some similarities comparing now to those times. This time it's a different setup, though, with those flat 5yrs of no ff rate changes between 2008/2016 looking so unnatural and the gulf between real ff rate and equities price being historically large. I don't know enough to piece together how this can be normalized (without great pain) and how that might look in reference to the next year or two in the USD...

(I've bookmarked so many great discussions this month including this one.. thanks!)
  • #149,238
  • Mar 31, 2017 7:58pm Mar 31, 2017 7:58pm
I want to go with neutral to bullish. But to be put in a single category ill go with bullish.
  • #149,239
  • Mar 31, 2017 11:48pm Mar 31, 2017 11:48pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} @PAStalker Spot on. Thats exactly the long term view that I was looking for. I added some quick notes highlighting the last 2 long term swings (trend and the current pullback) and the mark of inner waves forming the swing.... -> A swing: is price range that is composed by many legs (waves) it can be a continuation/extension swing or a retrace/pullback swing. -> A wave (or leg) is the ebb and flow that are inside of a swing until is completed. {image} I leave this open for the weekend...
A

So long as we are referencing long term.
  • #149,240
  • Edited 8:37am Apr 1, 2017 8:22am | Edited 8:37am
A. Up to complete the pullback
I think rate hike expectations should carry dollar higher for a time. When normalisation feels "normal" to markets, perhaps after regime change at the FED and 2017 hikes are fact not rumor, maybe that will complete the pullback. It's not black and white to me looking at the chart but I think that's where it's at.

Might be wrong, might be obvious, but I think in the same way FA is hardly relevant when you zoom to tiny time frames (5 minute, 1 hour, etc) TA becomes much less relevant when you zoom out to much much larger ones (1 year, even larger). The levels are relevant for finding support/resistance but it seems harder to use those the same way one might on the weekly for instance to dig into and chart the buying and selling forces that are currently driving direction. Maybe i just dont read it as well. But there seems to be a more balanced view (only speaking for me of course, not in general) where TA is in focus and FA is in focus at the same time when I use the weekly/monthly with an occasional glance at the daily when looking for entry exit, and now an occaisional glance at the quarterly for general trend. I spent a lot of time and a bazillion trades watching ticks on an hourly chart before I started reading this thread and this way is much more comfortable and so far more profitable for me. Plenty of folks putting their kids through college trading smaller time frames so I don't mean to say there's a right or wrong way. Not in the least. Just mean I'm starting to figure out where im most at home with it.
Anyway blah, blah, blah A.

And to fill in the mid term Eur/Usd blank Sisse left a few posts back I'd give it bearish/extrm bearish.
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