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The Really Useless Thread

  • #149,201
  • Mar 31, 2017 1:42pm Mar 31, 2017 1:42pm
This one was difficult.
Ta
Q bullish, , M bullish, Weekly extreme bullish with the bullish engulfing. So I guess that Technically put me in the very bullish end.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #149,202
  • Mar 31, 2017 1:46pm Mar 31, 2017 1:46pm
Looks bearish for me. Not holding the breakout level after having defended it the last month.
I would expect a visit to the low of the range.
  • #149,203
  • Mar 31, 2017 1:48pm Mar 31, 2017 1:48pm
Quoting janpec1000
GJ watching for possible clearout and squeeze play. 250 needs to give for directional play for longs, played front side of move yesterday from 700 but got BE on retrace. If 138 gives away this could get very heavy, nothing else to track for invalidation. {image}
250 eventually gave up, but that was far from being naked....141.0X still valid after 4 clearouts, thats record for any 2017 play so far that i am aware. Looking for directional play towards 141 next week.
1,263X tracking for GU semi symetrical.

EDIT: in regards to dollar discussions and weekly close, from action, the first take to trade clearout was 900-880 close as one to go with, weekly close is backside of move but has much lower RR.
  • #149,204
  • Edited 2:42pm Mar 31, 2017 1:48pm | Edited 2:42pm
Quoting sisse
Shy board ...
Ok thanks all...

Now and here some will struggle can you define the current range in play (not a single candle but the proper range). Please use Q/M and W at minimum. Don't go below that because we are defining a mid term outlook and play as in the UBS report.

Why you are doing this?

The beauty of Dollar is that is not tradable alone (well you could in illiquid futures or CFD but thats not why this instrument is important).

Being in synch with Dollar in the mid (and short term) will make your life a LOT EASIER and it will put you miles away from the crowds. Dollar is the king in the Fx board and having a clear picture both TA and FA is indispensable for consistent swing trading

Ok so lets go. So if anybody want to plot a Q or M(or W) with the = current range just 3 lines Top/ Bottom and Flip (or a mid or whatever you want to split when one side is stronger that the other in that range)

++++Demystifying institutional analysis - Thinking by Yourself ++++



V. Bullish

sisse

Earleone

ptoftangency


Bullish

@UBS (Slightly bullish oversold till end of April)

goosebone

gazpacho

chino

ashenv


Neutral

@Pharm0r

IMARICH1

suntan

Fadhl

primejarvis


Bearish

felixjabreu

ktoTam

Paintomaker


V. Bearish

gatorinla


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,205
  • Mar 31, 2017 1:56pm Mar 31, 2017 1:56pm
Here is my Week look
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2017-03-31 at 1.55.13 p.m..png Size: 48 KB
  • #149,206
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:02pm Mar 31, 2017 2:02pm
On mobile cannot post any chart ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,207
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:03pm Mar 31, 2017 2:03pm
Can't post a chart but it would be from M (103.81 to 98.67 with FLIP @101.6X)
  • #149,208
  • Edited 2:26pm Mar 31, 2017 2:10pm | Edited 2:26pm
Monthly chart


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 25 KB


Top: 103.82
Flip: 101.44 (Edited, was 100.51 before. I think bears will be well while there is not a close above this month open)
Bottom: 95.89
  • #149,209
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:14pm Mar 31, 2017 2:14pm
Quoting chino
Here is my Week look {image}
No you are too close to the market for what we are trading to do.

Its good you post this because some people have ask 'how do you define a range' (even if its the wrong one). A couple of hints that may trigger some !!!:

1. You need to zoom out and try to find a proper wave / range ...yours is not really a proper range..
2. As you can see your range is pretty much one candle in December. Can you tell what happened in those days?(highlight recommend this concept to dig deeper*) Sure FED hikes. Can you mark March hikes ...can you find anything interesting or telling in all that?

@Paintomaker

Ok a bit weird lines placement but thats a more appropriate current range...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,210
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:15pm Mar 31, 2017 2:15pm
Here is my view for range.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDXWeekly.png Size: 43 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #149,211
  • Edited 2:33pm Mar 31, 2017 2:18pm | Edited 2:33pm
Attachment g.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXYM.png Size: 26 KB
  • #149,212
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:18pm Mar 31, 2017 2:18pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #149,213
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:19pm Mar 31, 2017 2:19pm
Quoting goosebone
{image}
Agreed! Almost exactly my view

I prefer flip @ 100 but we're arguing 50 cents
  • #149,214
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:23pm Mar 31, 2017 2:23pm
Quoting sisse
Shy board ...Spring Friday afternoon in Europe, working hours in the US ...but still a key day to track in the markets... as I always said...when these boards are extremely quiete and empty is usually when the most important days to track are happening .... In any case, lets leave it open a bit longer to see if others catch up So far, Q/M close single bar Question 2: Bullish @UBS (Slightly bullish oversold till end of April) goosebone gazpacho...

A
  • #149,215
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:28pm Mar 31, 2017 2:28pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #149,216
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:29pm Mar 31, 2017 2:29pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Agreed! Almost exactly my view I prefer flip @ 100 but we're arguing 50 cents
I was torn between what i got and 96. Looked good too. I always have to stop myself from putting like 6 flips on these things and missing the point altogether.
  • #149,217
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:30pm Mar 31, 2017 2:30pm
Quoting sisse
While we wait for Commodities to close, lets continue the key Dollar discussion. {quote} {quote} {quote} @mayafx @goosebone Ok so we are going to get and extension (TBC in a couple of hours) before going to direction, maps and outlooks and etc. Lets open the following discussion title: ++++Demystifying institutional analysis - Thinking by Yourself ++++ The objective is to show you how to start thinking and analysing FX markets by yourself and make...
depends where it close above 100.1x seems bulish to me
  • #149,218
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:31pm Mar 31, 2017 2:31pm
I liked your range chart goosebone; but, I thought range was for the Q using M or W. This is why I picked a smaller range of 500 pips for the Q. You might be right if we are to look father out.
  • #149,219
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:33pm Mar 31, 2017 2:33pm
Quoting Earleone
Here is my view for range. {image}
Agree with Earleone (just my top is around 105).
  • #149,220
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:33pm Mar 31, 2017 2:33pm
Quoting Earleone
Here is my view for range. {image}
@Earleone

I strongly disagree. How can the top of the current range in play be outside of the current range?

@suntan, goosebone, Pharm0r ...both look rational options...

Before I give you mine, if we are talking about a mid term leg, macro direction its given by the long term.

Can anybody show in a chart what is the last 2 long term swings. The last one and the current.


For those confuse about the terminology (you can use whatever is the way you use as its irrelevant). For the sake of the argument we are going to use sisse terms:

-> A swing: is price range that is composed by many legs (waves) it can be a continuation/extension swing or a retrace/pullback swing.
-> A wave (or leg) is the ebb and flow that are inside of a swing until is completed.

sisse

PS: US equities closing next
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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