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The Really Useless Thread

  • #149,161
  • Mar 31, 2017 2:57am Mar 31, 2017 2:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Flynn looking for a immunity deal. Stay tuned. Jarred K is too pretty for prison... but, no pun intended.. Butt it's on him
Is that the narrative today? What happened to the dozens of others regarding Russia that fizzled out? A very partisan wild goose chase, imho, and reason 10-011 to spurn the mass media.

ClinicalEx;9710862]"Relative divergence in spreads with Europe starting to put treasuries/dollar on the front foot after the buy the fact move/tightening: 0.50/0.60 is capped on benchmark bunds while 2.2/2.3 is supported on treasuries. DXY and Fiber moving into S/R. DXY at 98.5 is the level to track in my book as the week progresses (MISS) [Massive consumer confidence print ended rally before we could get there] . Overshooting where we are on the pair, perhaps on bad news/prints, making a bull trap above 1.0867 looks like a no-brainer entry. (CHECK) [But we didn't even roll above; we basically faded the level with the aid of the consumer print] Oil in the midst of a long-term bottoming, chopping around 48, (TENTATIVE CHECK) [43.5 is locked; and the range is capped between 47/48 & 55, with the latter needing to go before confirming a long term bottom] but supply wars might make things really messy; but not break 43.5 messy. I believe there will be a strong economic upturn in the US, mainly from tax reform and deregulation, but also an upturn in Europe that will keep prices buoyed aside from the strictly technical rejection at post-recession support. Support is only threatened by major political/economic risk or intense battles from producers flooding the market."

Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Don't forget about DXY. We breached 99.6 over the last couple of days which may end this ST swing rather quickly on the way back. The close proximity of that level makes things kinda dicey if we're trying to do a laggard entry.
Was ineffectual. An effortless trade on the back of the consumer print & Brexit flows. Well done Chester!
  • #149,162
  • Mar 31, 2017 5:16am Mar 31, 2017 5:16am
As expected Draghi was right all along from the last conference. Confirming that was mainly 'fake' gossips from the same sources (fck bastards they should be jailed with all those other that spread BS in the political front too) about ECB the last few weeks....

Inflation undershooting with confirmed numbers as ECB forecasted and expected last meeting....

Watch-out the soft floor in the Euro (1.064x) for NY open as we may end up with a WTF moment this week. More importantly and for those trading Equities we are set to complete the leg in European Equities DAX ATH to end the Q at the very highs. Inflation will be more than enough push (guarantee free money till mid summer) to trigger a strong rally.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,163
  • Mar 31, 2017 5:34am Mar 31, 2017 5:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} +0723 in the next 1h 20 min could help (11:30 central) .. atm 0680 level
or not
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,164
  • Mar 31, 2017 5:40am Mar 31, 2017 5:40am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} or not
DAX (European Equities) will trigger the move not the Euro alone. Europe is in full control of this one till the European close...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,165
  • Mar 31, 2017 6:04am Mar 31, 2017 6:04am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Is that the narrative today? What happened to the dozens of others regarding Russia that fizzled out? A very partisan wild goose chase, imho, and reason 10-011 to spurn the mass media. ClinicalEx;9710862]"Relative divergence in spreads with Europe starting to put treasuries/dollar on the front foot after the buy the fact move/tightening: 0.50/0.60 is capped on benchmark bunds while 2.2/2.3 is supported on treasuries. DXY and Fiber moving into S/R. DXY at 98.5 is the level to track in my book as the week progresses (MISS) [Massive consumer...
change the channel to a less pro russian station is my advice. things that have happened the last 30 yrs are well documented. if you have a news source trying to change those, a light should go off in your head. for instance on july 20 1969, man walked on the moon. if your presidential candidate is quoting the news source that said it didnt happen (alex Jones). your presidential candidate is choosing a suspect news source. if your president is choosing to believe news taken directly from the Sputnik news. over his own intelligence agencies, you got a problem. if you go down the list from secretary of state to commerce. you got a russian problem. sure its political, especially to independents like myself. being political dont make it wrong. it's so political some in GOP are starting to join in. Late for sure, but nevertheless joining in. i dont expect the last hardcore trump nation to join in..saying "it's political" is just a generic cover answer, to the inability to explain one's candidate.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,166
  • Mar 31, 2017 6:35am Mar 31, 2017 6:35am
That was it for the European morning. Tracking extremely closely DAX 12280 for ATH and the ext 12575.xx (as usual in ATH and ATL only soft magic lines at these levels) as only key level to track across the majors.

On the Euro a dull European session chopping around all day long around 1.068x.

Highlight come from ECB and inflation numbers that will unlock the move in European Equities (EZ equities) and carry Euro* as collateral. Tracking 1.073x till Europe goes home to see if markets play ball this week and trigger a WTF leg...

Not much to see or do here but same levels, same trades, same all.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,167
  • Mar 31, 2017 6:36am Mar 31, 2017 6:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} +0723 in the next 1h 20 min could help (11:30 central) .. atm 0680 level
12 h had no effect. next one in 5h. if above 0723, increases chance of week above 0816.. not a done deal.. q1 next month close.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,168
  • Edited 6:55am Mar 31, 2017 6:44am | Edited 6:55am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yeah maybe. ollie was a guy who took orders. Ollie said something like "if the president wanted me to stand on my head, i would". ( i watched in live in early 1987. at the palm bay hotel and yacht club. overlooking key biscayne, where sometimes out the window bails were floating on the water.) ) in 1 Making illegal deals with Iran for arms and allowing drugs coming to U.S. was bad. (helped crack cocaine epidemic in 80ties). This Russian thing if true is worse than that. Ollie following orders had a mystique about it. Ollie got a show because...
Right. I guess Poindexter is a better comparison. I agree that whole event was nothing compared to this. Good thing its only acts of treason on the table and not using your govt email on the wrong server which to many is a reason to bring back public hanging, let alone a clear dealbreaker for the presidency. Those who knee-jerk rush to the defense of these guys in public without even one scrap from the investigative committees out yet show their colors and it becomes clear who has the partisan motive then. If once they have held months of endless, countless hearings and hours/days of testimony are given for a net yield of absolutely nothing but they still want more probing, then I'll agree with some here and call it a "partisan wild goose chase". We have very recent examples to compare so we'll know what that looks like when we see it. Til then I wait for law enforcement and congressional committees to do their job.

We still get some of those 'square grouper' down here btw. I never got one yet. But then I wouldn't tell you if I did.
  • #149,169
  • Mar 31, 2017 6:56am Mar 31, 2017 6:56am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Right. I guess Poindexter is a better comparison. I agree that whole event was nothing compared to this. Good thing its only acts of treason on the table and not using your govt email on the wrong server which to many is a reason to bring back public hanging, let alone a clear dealbreaker for the presidency. Those who knee-jerk rush to the defense of these guys in public without even one scrap from the investigative committees out yet show their colors and it becomes clear who has the partisan motive then. If once they have held months of...
i forgot about that. i get a chance to fly to kw now and again. but so far haven't done it. we get invites to fly there for dinner. it just dont seem right to go there, then turn around w/o some toes in the sand.

poindexter served some time. if u remember barry seal, came from my neck of the woods.. he was sacrificed with a big story
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,170
  • Mar 31, 2017 7:31am Mar 31, 2017 7:31am
  • #149,171
  • Mar 31, 2017 7:33am Mar 31, 2017 7:33am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Not talking about trading anything here (@Gator have good tips there) I am just walking you through some very basic concepts in price. Don't make the mistake to think I am giving you signals or a system. I am just giving you some core concepts that I think are indispensable and useful for swing trading. h. Here is the final one right on time for the roll. As you prolly knew I was walking you though the last 3 months of trading in 10 charts... {image} Q6: From a strictly PRICE simple candle perspective (what we have been doing the last 45...
Just re-reading some back posts and reviewing the 'after the fact'.
There is massive lesson here for me when you compare the chart from the post above to the chart as of today.

Chart from post;
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 127 KB


Current chart;
Attached Image
  • #149,172
  • Mar 31, 2017 7:44am Mar 31, 2017 7:44am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i forgot about that. i get a chance to fly to kw now and again. but so far haven't done it. we get invites to fly there for dinner. it just dont seem right to go there, then turn around w/o some toes in the sand. poindexter served some time. if u remember barry seal, came from my neck of the woods.. he was sacrificed with a big story
Yeah he was from Red Stick, LA
Check PM.
  • #149,173
  • Mar 31, 2017 8:01am Mar 31, 2017 8:01am
Sisse wrote this on 21 March 2017 referring to the close on 17 March 2017; ...TA wise we don't need to visit 1.087x area any longer since last Friday. It's still unlocked intraday but the FED flow will be pretty much digested on a tick to the 1.080x handle ....

What I'm trying to understand is why was the FED flow digested on a tick about 1.08?
It was spot on with hindsight but what told you this before the fact?

1. Was it a test of the Feb highs with no reason for an extension?
2. But then the extension happened due to politics in America?
3. Without the healthcare bill issues and a gap at the open 1.082x would have marked the high?
  • #149,174
  • Mar 31, 2017 8:08am Mar 31, 2017 8:08am
Sisse
I'm a little confused about tracking 1.073x Does this mean that as long as 1.073x holds it's very much likely that we have a wtf move below 1.064x? Because to me it seems more likely that of we break the daily range to the upside we would be set to roll around 1.073x
  • #149,175
  • Edited 8:51am Mar 31, 2017 8:28am | Edited 8:51am
1.073x was last break lower on the Q chart. Also on W. A Q/W close around there makes sense to me for those reasons. Testing it from below around the close. Would make this week's candle an extension of last week rather than a break (for now). Doesn't mean it will happen that way or if it does, a change in direction is implied. Just one to track. Thats my take from a strictly TA perspective.
  • #149,176
  • Mar 31, 2017 8:51am Mar 31, 2017 8:51am
Opening range not completed yet in NY but a quick heads up DAX triggering imminent break up alerts for the Q close and mid term moves. In the very short term DAX is taking 1288x, it will carry the Euro no problem at all if we blow up the top in European Equities....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,177
  • Mar 31, 2017 9:04am Mar 31, 2017 9:04am
Quoting sisse
Opening range not completed yet in NY but a quick heads up DAX triggering imminent break up alerts for the Q close and mid term moves. In the very short term DAX is taking 1288x, it will carry the Euro no problem at all if we blow up the top in European Equities.... sisse
I can't handle the suspense...pay day ?!!
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #149,178
  • Mar 31, 2017 9:10am Mar 31, 2017 9:10am
Quoting hoom
{quote} I can't handle the suspense...pay day ?!!
...and btw the way Sisse , I need an adress to send packs and packs of beer !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #149,179
  • Mar 31, 2017 9:55am Mar 31, 2017 9:55am
I have two level for Q closing one 1.063x and the other one 1.073x ... We are in the middle so for me no suspense at all ... If Breached on the upper level will start trailing and if closes below will let it continue to run ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,180
  • Mar 31, 2017 11:08am Mar 31, 2017 11:08am
...and Europe going home with the first round of closes. Euro struggling a lot at these levels and we couldn't reach 1.073x with Europe ...all eyes on Dollar for the close as its the one in play for the Q close in the FX board....for the rest of the day there is 'nobody' holding 1.068x any longer so any soft wind ...

A quick wrap up on European Equities:

-> EZ Equities found very strong foot this Quarter. Good numbers all over the place and we have shift from settling the bottom in the economy to start picking up in its own right. Feels and looks similar enviroment than the US economy +/- 3/4 years ago when its start picking up after the financial crisis.

-> Also on the political risk front which has been permanently holding back markets since the debt crisis is starting to settle down. So far, Austria, Netherlands has avoid going to the populist/extreme right front but we still have key French elections to [check].

-> Now more than ever if we clear French election we are on the verge of a strong rally and a mini golden age especially feed by the US and UK going for protectionism, populist and nationalistic policies that will leave a huge vacuum on international trade and markets...

-> The ugly duckling market wise is the UK, that decided to isolate (still negotiations to come) and leave a huge pie (financial services, trade and all related industries and sectors that depended on the common market) for grabbing. So far UK macro numbers has hold steady until Art 50 but at huge and expensive mid term toll of inflation and lower real wages all triggered with the annihilation of Sterling.

-> European Equities (DAX and to lesser extend CAC as reference) closing very bullish triggering an interested map in the mid and long term after ECB takes out the training wheels later on the year. UK equities, starting to look rather tired and with lots of uncertainty ahead. They keep holding primarily via US and European equities pushing high in the short term while numbers are starting to flattening via inflation. Outlook recap for the Q close:

-> Long term outlook in EZ equities buy
-> Mid term outlook in EZ equities in soft buy till French election are cleared at least
-> Short term outlook in EZ equities in neutral till French election are cleared at least

-> Long term outlook in UK equities strong sell will be adjusted depending on negotiations.
-> Mid term outlook in UK equities in sell will be adjusted depending on negotiations
-> Short term outlook in UK equities in soft sell until BOE reconfirms rates via inflation

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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