Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Good Day

Hope everyone is doing well.

Here are the charts.

I just closed two shorts on USDJPY does anyone know what just happened --- I did not expect the sharp move down just now.

Made a lot of pips but can see no fundamental reason for it.

Was it the NY futures open in NY --9:30 EST ??

Update--- Thank you keepcalmfx for your reply. I think it was a combo of unemployment numbers and the consumer comfort but had to wait for the volume to come in and take EU up and UJ down. volume = NY open... something that Benj has spoken about often. must pay attention to stay in the right direction.

Hi Iamsovereign, maybe it is due to the consumer comfort? OR maybe there was a Trump Tweet that we are not aware off?
The only event in the calendar which was negative for the dollar was Unemployment Claims, which was below expectation, but that news came out before the drop, maybe an after effect?

Stock market opens now in the next 10 min if I have it correct?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-in-five-weeks

Consumer Comfort in U.S. Decreases for First Time in Five Weeks

‎30‎ ‎March‎ ‎2017‎ ‎03‎:‎45‎ ‎PM
Americans confidence dropped for the first time in five weeks as households became less upbeat about the state of their finances amid a decline in stock prices, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index figures showed Thursday.

Key Points

Weekly comfort measure fell to a five-week low of 49.7 in period ended March 26 from 51.3; it was the biggest decrease since mid-September
Personal finances gauge dropped to 57.4, also the weakest in five weeks, from 59.2
Buying-climate measure decreased 2 points, the most since August, to 44.5
Sentiment about national economy eased to 47.1, weakest in a month, from 48.1

Big Picture

The drop in sentiment, which included setbacks among middle- and higher-income earners, represents a break in post-election U.S. enthusiasm and coincides with declines in stock prices, as the S&P 500 Index had its biggest weekly drop since November. Confidence broke along partisan and gender lines, with both gaps widening. Sentiment among households in the South was also near a decade high. Household spending that builds off the recent gains in optimism would help drive the economy.

The Details

All income brackets of Americans earning at least $40,000 were less optimistic last week, including a six-week low among those who earn $75,000 to $100,000
Confidence fell in three of four regions, while it rose in the South to the highest level since the week ended April 1, 2007
Sentiment of Republicans exceeded that of Democrats by the most since March 2009
Women were more pessimistic last week, while sentiment among men rose to the highest level since May 2007

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...arket-overview

Dollar Shrugs off News on Trump's Infrastructure Spending, Euro Soft after German CPI

Dollar trades mixed today in spite of news about US President Donald Trump's infrastructure spending. US Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao said the Trump would unveil a USD 1T infrastructure plan over ten years, later this year. But no detail was provided. Chao said that the plan would cover "more than transportation infrastructure, it will include energy, water and potentially broadband and veterans hospitals as well." However, the news is shrugged off by investors as they remain skeptical on Trump's ability push through his economic policies.
Released from US, initial jobless claims dropped 3k to 258k in the week ended March 25, above expectation of 245k. The four week moving average rose from 246.5k to 254.25k. Continuing claims rose 65k to 2.05m in the week ended March 18. Q4 GDP growth was revised up to 2.1% annualized, above expectation of 2.0%. GDP price index was also revised up to 2.1%. From Canada, IPPI rose 0.1% mom in February, RMPI rose 1.2% mom.

Euro stays soft on weak German CPI
Euro has been under some pressure as markets reassess the possibility of early stimulus exit by the central bank. And the common currency stays soft after mixed data. In particular, German CPI rose 0.2% mom, 1.6% yoy in March, slowed from 0.6% mom and 2.2% in February, and missed expectation of 0.4% mom, 1.8% yoy. Eurozone business climate was unchanged at 0.82 in March versus expectation of 0.87. Economic confidence dropped to 107.9 versus expectation of 108.3. Industrial confidence dropped to 1.2 versus expectation of 1.4. Services confidence dropped to 12.7 versus expectation of 14.0. Consumer confidence was finalized at -5. Also from Europe, Swiss KOF leading indicator rose to 107.6 in March.

ECB Nowotny: strategy for 2017 largely set
A Reuters report quoted unnamed source saying yesterday that the markets have over-interpreted ECB's message in the March meeting. Today, ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said together that "the strategy for 2017 has largely been set and from my point of view there is no reason to depart from this." Also, another governing council member Klass Knot said that "only if the economy does even better than we now expect in our estimates could we consider bringing the tapering forward." Regarding ending asset purchase before rate hike, Knot said that "this sequence makes sense, the forward guidance makes sense and I don't see a need to revisit that now."

EC Tusk to UK: We already miss you
European Council President Donald Tusk expressed his emotion on receiving the Brexit trigger letter from UK. Tusk said that there is "no reason to pretend that this is a happy day, neither in Brussels, nor in London." And, "what can I add to this? We already miss you." However, French President Francoise Hollande told May in a phone call that he opposed to negotiating the trade deal together with withdrawal from EU. A statement from Hollande's lyse office said that "The president indicated that the talks must at first be about the terms of withdrawal, dealing especially with citizens' rights and obligations resulting from the commitments made by the United Kingdom. On the basis of the progress made, we could open discussions on the framework of future relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union." German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed similar view yesterday.
UK prime minister Theresa May said in the Brexit letter than "we are leaving the European Union, but we are not leaving Europe - and we want to remain committed partners and allies to our friends across the continent."Brexit secretary David Davis said that UK will publish details on converting EU laws into UK laws to pave the way for a smooth transition and avoid any legal black holes. Davis said that "converting EU law into U.K. law, and ending the supremacy of lawmakers in Brussels, is an important step in giving businesses, workers and consumers the certainty they need."

BoJ Iwata: No need to buy US treasuries
In Japan, BoJ Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata said that there is no need to buy US treasuries as sufficient monetary easing could be done by JGB purchases. He told parliament that "we can achieve our 2 percent inflation target and seek an eventual exit from our quantitative easing program without buying U.S. Treasury debt." And he warned that "buying U.S. Treasury debt unnecessarily would be interpreted as currency intervention."

http://www.zerohedge.com/

China's President To Meet Trump Next Week; Putin "Ready" For Meeting In Finland

Confirming recurring rumors from the past month, overnight both China's Foreign Ministry and the White House confirmed that China's president Xi Jinping will meet with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago in Florida on April 6-7. It will be Xi's first meeting with Trump, a little over a month after Trump used the same venue to meet with Japan's PM Abe, and comes at a time when the two sides face pressing issues, ranging from North Korea and the South China Sea to trade disputes.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang, who made the announcement at a daily news briefing on Thursday, did not give any more details of the meeting agenda, but spoke of the need to see the big picture while fostering mutual interests in trade relations.
"The market dictates that interests between our two countries are structured so that you will always have me and I will always have you," Lu said.
"Both sides should work together to make the cake of mutual interest bigger and not simply seek fairer distribution," he said in response to a question about trade frictions.
Beijing had previously said that preparatory work for the meeting was underway. But it had not yet confirmed the trip, despite western media reports on a scheduled meeting and an announcement by the Finnish government that Xi would make a brief stop in Finland on April 5.
The summit follows a series of other recent U.S.-China meetings and conversations aimed at mending ties after strong criticism of China by Trump during his election campaign. Rex Tillerson ended a trip to Asia this month in Beijing, agreeing to work together with China on North Korea and stressing Trump's desire to enhance understanding.
Among the most pressing recent issues, China has been irritated at being repeatedly told by Washington to rein in North Korea's nuclear and missile programs and by the U.S. decision to base an advanced missile defense system in South Korea. Beijing also remains suspicious of U.S. intentions towards self-ruled Taiwan, which China claims as its own.
Of course, trade will be a dominant topic: Trump has repeatedly accused China of unfair trade policies, criticized its island-building in the strategic South China Sea, and accused it of doing too little to constrain North Korea, although with the "Goldman" block silencing Peter Navarro in recent months, Trump has significantly moderated his tone.
* * *
Meanwhile, setting the stage for a just as critical summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that he was ready to meet U.S. president Donald Trump at an Arctic summit in Finland. According to Reuters, the Russian president made this remark responding to his Finnish counterpart, who said he would be happy to receive Russian and U.S. presidents in Finland.
I believe Finland suits this purpose well, and Helsinki is a very convenient platform to organize an event like this, Putin said, when asked if he thought a meeting between him and Trump was possible in Finland. However, he added that the event should be well prepared by both sides.
If this happens, we and I personally would be glad to take part in such an event. If not, the meeting [with Trump] could take place in the framework of the G20 summit [set to take place in July], Putin concluded.
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto said earlier that his country would certainly be very happy to have the opportunity to hold such a summit.
The summit is set to take place at Finlandia Hall in Helsinki on September 18-20, 2017, according to the events official website.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...e-polls-17-sad

An Angry Freedom Caucus Responds To Trump's 2018 Threat

After Trump drew 'first blood' this morning with a tweet threatening to fight Freedom Caucus members in the 2018 mid-term elections, a pair of House representatives have fired back with aggressive tweets of their own implying that Trump's healthcare plan was evidence that he had "succumb to the D.C. Establishment."
"It didn't take long for the swamp to drain @realDonaldTrump. No shame, Mr. President. Almost everyone succumbs to the D.C. Establishment."

".@realDonaldTrump it's a swamp not a hot tub. We both came here to drain it. #SwampCare polls 17%. Sad!"

Ohio Representative Jim Jordan, the former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, also defended conservative lawmakers earlier today on Fox News. Per The Hill:
"The Freedom Caucus is trying to change Washington, this bill keeps Washington the same, plain and simple," Jordan said Thursday on Fox News' "America's Newsroom."

"We appreciate the president, we are trying to help the president. But the fact is, you have to look at the legislation. It doesn't do what we told the voters we were going to do, and the American people understand that. That's why only 17 percent of the population supports this legislation."

Jordan wouldn't comment on the threat regarding the 2018 midterms, instead characterizing the scuttled healthcare vote as just a "postponement" and arguing that Republicans will succeed if they deliver on their promises to voters.

"Lets forget the blame and what may happen in the future, lets just do what we said. That's what the Freedom Caucus and what Republicans are committed to," he said.
Of course these latest tweets come after Trump took to twitter earlier this morning, saying "The Freedom Caucus will hurt the entire Republican agenda if they don't get on the team, & fast. We must fight them, & Dems, in 2018!"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...us-debt-growth

CBO Warns Of Fiscal Catastrophe As A Result Of Exponential Debt Growth In The U.S.

In a just released report from the CBO looking at the long-term US budget outlook, the budget office forecasts that both government debt and deficits are expected to soar in the coming 30 years, with debt/GDP expected to hit 150% by 2047 if the current government spending picture remains unchanged.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...forecast_0.jpg
The CBO's revision from the last, 2016 projection, shows a marked deterioration in both total debt and budget deficits, with the former increasing by 5% to 146%, while the latter rising by almost 1% from 8.8% of GDP to 9.6% by 2017.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...O%20comp_0.jpg
According to the CBO, "at 77 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), federal debt held by the public is now at its highest level since shortly after World War II. If current laws generally remained unchanged, the Congressional Budget Office projects, growing budget deficits would boost that debt sharply over the next 30 years; it would reach 150 percent of GDP in 2047."
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In addition to the booming debts, the office expects the deficit to more than triple from the projected 2.9% of GDP in 2017 to 9.8% in 2047. The deficit at the end of fiscal year 2016 stood at $587 billion.
A comaprison of government spending and revenues in 2017 vs 2047 shows the following picture:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0deficit_0.jpg
The CBO also mentions rising rates as another key reason for the increasing debt burden. The Federal Reserve has kept rates low since the financial crisis but is on track to gradually hike rates in the coming year.
On the growth side, the CBO expects 2% or less GDP growth over the next three decades, far below the number proposed by the Trump administration.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...th%20CBO_0.jpg
The budget office breaks down the primary causes of projected growth in US spending as follows: not surprisingly, it is all about unsustainable social security and health care program outlays.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...spending_0.jpg

The CBO's troubling conclusion:
Greater Chance of a Fiscal Crisis. A large and continuously growing federal debt would increase the chance of a fiscal crisis in the United States. Specifically, investors might become less willing to finance federal borrowing unless they were compensated with high returns. If so, interest rates on federal debt would rise abruptly, dramatically increasing the cost of government borrowing. That increase would reduce the market value of outstanding government securities, and investors could lose money. The resulting losses for mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, banks, and other holders of government debt might be large enough to cause some financial institutions to fail, creating a fiscal crisis. An additional result would be a higher cost for private-sector borrowing because uncertainty about the governments responses could reduce confidence in the viability of private-sector enterprises.

It is impossible for anyone to accurately predict whether or when such a fiscal crisis might occur in the United States. In particular, the debt-to-GDP ratio has no identifiable tipping point to indicate that a crisis is likely or imminent. All else being equal, however, the larger a governments debt, the greater the risk of a fiscal crisis.

The likelihood of such a crisis also depends on conditions in the economy. If investors expect continued growth, they are generally less concerned about the governments debt burden. Conversely, substantial debt can reinforce more generalized concern about an economy. Thus, fiscal crises around the world often have begun during recessions and, in turn, have exacerbated them.

If a fiscal crisis occurred in the United States, policymakers would have only limitedand unattractiveoptions for responding. The government would need to undertake some combination of three approaches: restructure the debt (that is, seek to modify the contractual terms of existing obligations), use monetary policy to raise inflation above expectations, or adopt large and abrupt spending cuts or tax increases.

Then again, as the past 8 years have shown, only debt cures more debt, so expect nothing to change.
Also, we find it just a little confusing why the CBO never warned of an imminent "fiscal crisis" over the past 8 years when total US debt doubled, increasing by $10 trillion under the previous administration.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...to-the-upside/

Are we On the Verge of a Market Explosion to the Upside?

Tomorrow we end the first quarter of 2017. Politics on a global scale are the driving force. The failure of Trump and reform movements in Europe are the catalyst to send the stock market to record highs once again as people lose confidence in government completely and we then turn to just look how to park money. We cross that line moving beyond the point of no return where money pours into equities, not because of earnings, but because capital is fleeing from government and banks and it just needs a place to park. As we move forward, we will look at good stocks to park money to survive the political chaos on the horizon.

The historical high in the PE Ratio was in 2009 at the bottom of the crash NOT THE HIGH! When you reach a point that you no longer trust banks, the currency, or government, where does big money go? Individuals can buy gold, but you cannot keep it in a safe deposit box in a bank if the banks can be seized. Big money parks in blue chips and tangible assets like real estate (if out of the path of war). The 2009 peak in the PE Ratio reflects that moment of a complete collapse in confidence. This is the key point we must understand. So, while I am focusing on politics, that is the fuel to ignite the collapse in public confidence. Nobody can stop this not Trump, not Le Pen, or any other reactionary politician. We have crossed the point of no return because nobody is talking about restructuring the entire monetary system and debt system. That will not take place UNTIL we crash and burn. Nobody changes anything until they have to.

We can technically see that the Dow has broken-out on the Quarterly level. Support lies at the 19,230 level. The only way to make a serious correction requires the Dow to break the 17,000 area on a closing basis. Closing the quarter above 19,230 keeps the market positive from a broader perspective.

Keep in mind that Trump WILL FAIL! This much is inevitable. The trend is against him and you cannot fight the trend. People had such high hopes for Obama that he would live up to his promises and we would really see Change We Can Believe In. When everything he did was the same as Bush, that destroyed the confidence in the two-party system and set the stage for Trump as our computer was forecasting. He became effectively a third-party candidate with the Republican Party. Now, when he fails to reverse the global trend, where will people turn? Once you raise the hopes for change and Trump cannot deliver, all bets are off moving forward. That is when the stock market starts to rise for reasons that will confuse most. This is not the Trump Rally but the collapse in public confidence rally.
This is the Year from Political Hell on a global scale. This is all about capital flows and Trump is dead wrong on trade, the dollar, and whatever he does with the taxes, he better do it fast, for when the politics shifts again, they will only rise because governments; federal, state, and local, are broke and that will not change. Political change is sweeping Europe, Australia, and even in Asia.

This is the collapse in confidence in government and Trump cannot reverse that trend. In fact, Trump has raised hopes among the silent majority that things will change. His failure, especially on trade, will then sour the confidence in government completely, exactly as Obama. This is when civil unrest becomes really dangerous. The same is true in Europe. The loss of the extreme right in the Netherlands has only emboldened Brussels assuming this is just a short-lived populist movement that will die out. This defeats any possible reform movement and ensures we will crash and burn starting in 2018.

At the end of the day, the next level of resistance is still in the 23000 level. After that, we cross the threshold into a Phase Transition. That is when everything begins to get truly confusing and crazy. This years WEC in Hong Kong, I will focus on how to trade a vertical market.

good read
but the problem is not "Trump", the problem is the Deep State (owned by superrich establishment) opposing Trump.
I am not a Trump fan, but putting blame on him for failing to fix in 6 weeks what others caused in many many years is a bit too easy, in my opinion.
He makes the perfect blame guy, I give you that. They ridiculed him worldwide, for a good reason and what you actualy see on the markets is the real power in action. That's not Trump, he is just the Casper they chose to put in position for taking the blame and talk shit. If the real power opposes him, he can't do anything.

The giant bubble and the orchestrated crash that we will see sooner or later, is not done for money.
And when it's done they will present us "a solution".
This time it's about their second asset: "people". (they don't call us "humans", basicly we are cattle, and there's too many of us)
This time it is about restructuring the world, social structures, getting rid of cash money full controle over food, water, people, everything....
And Trump is the perfect guy to put the blame on.

We must stop believing that Governments rule the world.
Governments don't rule the world, the Bilderberg Group owns it, and their banks rule it.
And we let them. And that is the real problem.


"We are grateful to the Washington Post, the New York Times, Time Magazine, and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost 40 years.
It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world, if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years.
But the world is now more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The super-national sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries."
- David Rockefeller

I liked the article but do not agree with the premise that Trump is the problem, As Teek so eloquently pointed out. But I am a Trump fan for its the first time that I hear nationalism with no apologies. And America first with no regrets. I am not going to go with the so called globalist agenda and I personally think that the whole world is slowly waking up to the fact. And I see mass push back in all countries. this is bad and this is good..... we have gone so far off the edge that there will be much pain to get back on track.

Hello Everyone

I left my home at near 6 AM Eastern Standard Time and was not able to post here all day even though I did a number of FX trades using my Tablet Samsung Tab A

First let me answer the question. When we have RISK OFF and money FLOWS into the Dow or the SPX500 then money PARKED in USD/JPY leaves that pair and it goes higher as in 112.000

So.... When we have RISK ON and money FLOWS to safety some money FLOWS back to USD/JPY and it heads to 110.000

Now on another SUBJECT !!! EUR/USD ... When We have RISK OFF then US DOLLARS are purchased in order to buy US Equities so if EUR/USD goes down more US Dollars are used and Euro's are sold and also the more US Dollars bought the More that US Dollars Index goes up. KeepCalmfx when you get up in the morning can you confirm my comments. I am very tired and need confirmation if I have explained it as I always do.

5 Minute Chart from Finviz on EUR/USD

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=m5

5 Minute Chart from Finviz on US Dollar Index

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

5 Minute Chart from Finviz on 10 Year US Bonds

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5

NOTE: As US 10 Year US Bonds GO DOWN IN PRICE the YIELDS go up .... So ... when money FLOWS from US Bonds they then ROTATE into Equities and I was not able to follow today what ALL the FED speakers had to say.

Gold also SOLD off so money flowed elsewhere, Do not be SURPRISED that EUR/USD, as I had stated before that the Trend is DOWN !!!

Does anyone have any questions ? Please post them and KeepCalmfx and myself will try to answer them.

Of course our friend and expert technician can offer his views on CORRELATION and MONEY FLOW. Also Teek had been warning on the EUR/USD to be careful trading EUR/USD.

I am finally off to bed...


Benjaminis

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/30/cor...ks-soar-crash/

Last Two Times After Our Dear Government Reported Data Like This, Stocks Crashed


by Wolf Richter • Mar 30, 2017 • 10 Comments


Wall Street claims surge in stocks is based on rising corporate earnings.
So, let’s see. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis released its third estimate of fourth quarter 2016 GDP and corporate profits today. This second revision of its first estimate of January 27 contains more data and is considered a more accurate approximation of what happened in the vast, devilishly hard-to-quantify US economy.


In terms of GDP, the fourth quarter was revised up slightly, but there were adjustments for prior quarters, and overall GDP growth for the year 2016 remained at a miserably low 1.6%. We’ve come to call this the “stall speed.” It’s difficult for the US economy to stay aloft at this slow speed. As Q4 gutted any hopes for a strong finish, GDP growth in 2016 matched the worst year since the Great Recession.


And corporate profits, despite a stock market that has been surging for years, are even worse. A lot worse. They’ve declined for years. In fact, they declined for years during the prior two stock market bubbles, the dotcom bubble and the pre-Financial-Crisis bubble. Both ended in crashes.

However, Wall Street remains assiduously silent on this.

The BEA offers various measures of corporate profits, slicing and dicing them in different ways. One of them is its headline number: “Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.”

It estimates “profits from current production,” based on profits before taxes, not adjusted for inflation, but with adjustments for inventory valuation (IVA) and capital consumption (CCAdj).These adjustments convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation of fixed assets (as they appear on tax returns) to the current-cost economic measures used in GDP calculations.

It’s a broad measure, taking into account profits by all corporations, not just the S&P 500 companies. This measure is reflected in the first chart below. Later, we’ll get into after-tax measures without those adjustments. They look even worse.



In Q4, profits rose to $2.15 trillion seasonally adjusted annual rate. That’s what the annual profit would be after four quarters at this rate. But profits in the prior three quarters were lower. And so Q4 brought the year total to $2.085 trillion. This was down from 2015, and it was down from 2014, and it was up only 2.6% from 2013, not adjusted for inflation.

This 20-year chart shows that measure. Note that the profits are not adjusted for inflation, and there was a lot of inflation over those 20 years:
http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/upl...x-with-adj.png
Things get even more interesting when we look at after-tax profits on a quarterly basis. The chart below shows two measures:

1. Dark blue line: Corporate Profits after tax without adjustments for inventory valuation and capital consumption (so without IVA & CCAdj).
2. Light blue line: Corporate Profits after tax with adjustments for inventory valuation and capital consumption (so with IVA & CCAdj).

Q4 profits, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, but not adjusted for inflation, were back where they’d been in Q1 2012:
http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/upl...-after-tax.png
By this measure, corporate profits have been in a volatile five-year stagnation. However, during that time – since Q1 2012 – the S&P 500 index has soared 70%.

It’s hard to blame oil: The price didn’t start collapsing until the fall of 2014. Earnings didn’t get hit until 2015. By mid-2016, oil was recovering. These dynamics have influenced the V-shaped drop and rise in 2015 and 2016. But the stagnation in the two prior years occurred when WTI was trading above $100 and occasionally above $110 a barrel!

The chart also shows that there were two prior multi-year periods of profit stagnation and even decline while the stock market experienced a massive run-up: from 1996 through 2000, leading to the dotcom crash; and from 2005 through 2008, which ended in the Financial Crisis.

This peculiar phenomenon – soaring stock prices during years of flat or declining profits – is now repeating itself. The end point of the prior two episodes was a lot of bloodletting in the markets that then refocused companies – the survivors – on what they needed to do to make money. For a little while at least, it focused executives on productive activities, rather than on financial engineering, M&A, and similar lofty projects. And it showed in their profits.

But that’s not happening now. Instead, executives are chasing after deals and paying record premiums to acquire other companies. And even data-provider Dealogic blamed stock market “exuberance” for driving merger valuations and premiums that have “soared to the highest level on record.” Read…. Why Does Pre-Collapse Year 2007 Keep Popping Up in M&A?






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Comments From Benjaminis: Good Evening...

Good morning.

Please allow me to put in a very personal post.
(this is -personal-, I had to get this off my chest. Please take it with a grain of salt.. or two...or three...)

I made up my mind on posting in the EUR/USD forums at FF and I stop wasting my time and energy there.
When I came to FF, I thought it might add to my value, but boy was I wrong.
I found myself wasting my time and my energy on discussing with very negative people (not all of them) who on their part invest a lot of their time and energy to be good "Nay sayers" and point fingers on anyone who "is wrong" or opposes their opinion. Shortsighted stubbern people do this all day, every day.
I personaly don't mind some "heat", in fact I am very used to it.
The life of a technical analyst consists of: - got it right > nobody say a word VS. got it wrong > take the blame
I am very used to that, and especialy as an analyst AND trader I am very aware of the reality in trading.
See, yesterday I had it wrong, on an intraday base. I bought price, very small positions, over multiple pairs, and looking at it on an intraday level I was "wrong". The market (price) pulled more down than I thought it would do.
So, there were some wild discussions on this in the EUR/USD forum since yesterday, and I did my very best on explaining my thoughts behind these entries and positions. And as usual I took a lot of shit on this, from the same kind of people who refuse to accept any other opinion but their own.
This morning I logged in late, just in time to watch the London open, made up my mind on these longterm entries and I closed the positions. And again I took some shit for being smart enough to see my "wrong" and close out (which is a good thing to do in reality)
I zipped down the timeframes and saw a good scalping opportunity for a quick 12 pips on the M15. I took this opportunity, put large size on it and scalped 12 pips with two positions and snatched some good profit on these, in/out/done, scalping back the loss of the two tiny long positions from yesterday and closed out breakeven on the EU. Again I took some shit, and it's really stupid apeshit this time.
I know that at least one of these people, if not more, did take my entries yesterday and their feelings might be hurt because of the losses. But is this "my fault"? Did I click the buttons for them? Did I ask them to take my entries? Do I make decisions for other people? Am I responsible for their actions?
No, I am not!
And if your feelings get hurt by losing trades: you trade too big of a size! Trade smaller and you will sleep better and don't feel the need to blame others.
That's reality, my friends!

Reading back, I can see three posts in which I explained my thinking, the tiny size positioning, my RR on them, and I pointed out multiple times that it's not an intraday thing. I also mentioned multiple times that I did hedge part of the risk that I took on these (laughably small) positions.
All these were yesterday.
This morning I made up my mind, closed out, scalped back the loss on size, and now I can do the weekend thing. I made a mistake and I corrected it, so what?
This is what I do, and I'd never ask anyone to follow my entries. In fact this is the reason why I never give signals or entries, not even on the professional analyst side of the world. I am not a signal service.
But I think I talked enough about this, and for sure I wasted enough time with people who don't just throw their negative shit on me when I am "wrong" (which btw, is a very realistic and very good 40% "wrong" to 60% "right" ratio over many years in business).
Not enough for these kind of people with their hate, nope, in the meantime they started to throw insults on me, calling me funny names and go 100% forumtroll shitmode on me.
And at this point, I made up my mind and decided to not post there anymore because I will not make this my everyday reality.
It simply does not add to my value, there is nothing for me to learn and improve on wasting my time with negative people who insist to play blamegames and refuse to understand the reality in trading. And btw, this is the reason why so many succesful traders in our business never go public and share their thoughts. It's not that they don't like to talk about what we love to do 5 days a week, it's because they don't want to waste their time making them a target for some of the worst trolls I have seen in all my years. I made this mistake. I correct this mistake, period.

Haters keep hating, it's their job, so I let them do their job.
I rather do my job, which is making money, helping people, and I strive to learn and improve and develop as an analyst, as a trader, and as a human being, every day.
I dare to always learn and improve and I dare to learn from the best, open minded and open hearted realistic people. These are the ones I like to discuss with, because this is what adds to my personal value in terms of knowledge. Discussing with trolls and haters only takes away valuable time.
As a trader I must say: "buy the bottom, don't discuss with it". Bit harsh, I admit, but... reality


@subscribers and friends:
Sorry folks, I know that some of you guys and girls are following my posts, and I want to say thank you for the nice words and kindness that you people gave me, I highly appreciate this because I am human after all. I have to deal with losses and wins and everything that goes with it just like anyone else, and believe you me it is not easy to look at other peoples money going down on multiple fronts when you are responsible for it. Much harder even to look on your own mulah fading away. But some days, this is reality. And reality wants to be accepted and dealt with accordingly, in a patient confident and realistic manner. This is how winning is done, in the long run, but you people already know this.
so, to my subscribers and friends: Thank you

I also thank to whatever gods may be who told me reality, patience, and a very conservative Risk- and Moneymanagement many years ago.
And I want to thank all the people who put their trust in me, our ROI is very healthy and we are going strong, and I keep it this way


@BenjaminIs, KeepCalmFX and the other nice people in here:
Thank you for allowing me to post this here. I had to get this off my chest and I wanted to post it here because -troll free- and my friends do read this thread, so they will know what I had to say about this "forum war fiasco" that I put an end on it by simply staying away from this negativity infested EUR/USD forum.
This thread is a place where I feel very welcome, people here are very kind, I am always treated with respect wether I am "right" or "wrong", and I appreciate that. So I will for sure continue to do what I do in here, I enjoy it very much.
And did I mention: I love it with passion
Thank you


what is reality in trading?
- Trading is taking calculated risk on potential return. Do this well and you wont need to worry about "right or wrong" anymore.

cheers, Teek

Hello Teek

I just woke up and read your very personal post. I have great affection and respect for you. One day I will share some common experiences about what happened in the infamous EUR/USD thread. In the meantime to continue with my thoughts I started this post by using the word affection before respect and I will explain.

You are a good decent man that is strong willed and caring and giving. In our upside down world the haters and the NMA (Negative Mental Attitude} people have taken over for awhile. Victims and I have no disrespect for real victims of course, however those people that are small minded and argumentative play the VICTIM CARD so that they do not need to accept responsibility for their mistakes.

I am very happy that we met and hopefully one day we will meet in person.

Thank you and keep the faith and do what you love to do with a great passion.


Benjamin

Thank you, so much

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...und-in-america

THIS IS REALITY VS PERCEPTION - Benjaminis

The Ticking Time Bomb That Will Wipe Out Virtually Every Pension Fund In America
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...icons/user.gif By Michael Snyder, on March 30th, 2017



http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...in-460x310.jpgAre millions of Americans about to see the big, juicy pensions that they were counting on to fund their golden years go up in flames in the biggest financial disaster in U.S. history? When Bloomberg published an editorial entitled “Pension Crisis Too Big for Markets to Ignore“, it simply confirmed what a lot of people already knew to be true. Pension funds all over America are woefully underfunded, and they have been pouring mind boggling amounts of money into very risky investments such as Internet stocks and commercial mortgages. Just like with subprime mortgages in 2008, this is a crisis that everyone can see coming well in advance, and yet nothing is being done about it.


On a day to day basis, Americans generally don’t think very much about pensions. Most of those that have been promised pensions simply have faith that they will be there when they need them.

Unfortunately, the truth is that pension plans all over the country are severely underfunded, and this has already resulted in local fiascos such as the one that we just witnessed in Dallas.

But what happened in Dallas is just the very small tip of a very large iceberg. According to Bloomberg, unfunded pension obligations on a national basis “have risen to $1.9 trillion from $292 billion since 2007″…

As was the case with the subprime crisis, the writing appears to be on the wall. And yet calamity has yet to strike. How so? Call it the triumvirate of conspirators – the actuaries, accountants and their accomplices in office. Throw in the law of big numbers, very big numbers, and you get to a disaster in a seemingly permanent state of making. Unfunded pension obligations have risen to $1.9 trillion from $292 billion since 2007.

And of course that $1.9 trillion number is not actually the real number.

That same Bloomberg article goes on to admit that if honest math was being used that the real number would actually be closer to 6 trillion dollars…

So why not just flip the switch and require truth and honesty in public pension math? Too many cities and potentially states would buckle under the weight of more realistic assumed rates of return. By some estimates, unfunded liabilities would triple to upwards of $6 trillion if the prevailing yields on Treasuries were used. That would translate into much steeper funding requirements at a time when budgets are already severely constrained. Pockets of the country would face essential public service budgets being slashed to dangerous levels.


So where are all of these pensions eventually going to come up with 6 trillion dollars?

That is a very good question.

Ultimately, even if financial conditions stay as stable as they are right now, a whole lot of people are not going to get the money that they were promised.

But things will get really “interesting” if we see a major downturn in the financial markets. According to Dave Kranzler, if the stock market were to fall by 10 percent or more and stay there for a number of months, that “would cause every single public pension fund to blow up”. And Kranzler is also deeply concerned about the tremendous amount of exposure that these pension funds have to commercial mortgages…

Circling back to the mall/REIT ticking time-bomb, while the Fed can keep the stock market propped up as means of preventing an immediate nuclear melt-down in U.S. pensions (all of which are substantially “maxed-out” in their mandated equities allocation), the collapse of commercial mortgage-back securities (CMBS) will have the affect of launching a nuclear sub-missile directly into the side of the U.S. financial system.


The commercial mortgage market is about $3 trillion, of which about $1 trillion has been packaged into asset-backed securities and stuffed into yield-starved pension funds. Without a doubt, the same degree of fraud of has been used to concoct the various tranches in these CMBS trusts that was employed during the mid-2000’s mortgage/housing bubble, with full cooperation of the ratings agencies then and now. Just like in 2008, with the derivatives that have been layered into the mix, the embedded leverage in the commercial mortgage/CMBS/REIT model is the financial equivalent of the Fukushima nuclear power plant collapse.



I have previously talked about the ongoing retail apocalypse in the United States which threatens to make so many of these commercial mortgage securities go bad. It is being projected that somewhere around 3,500 stores will close in the months ahead, and this is going to absolutely devastate mall owners. In turn, it is inevitable that a lot of their debts will start to go bad, and pension funds will be hit extremely hard by this.


But the coming stock market crash is going to hit pension funds even harder. Stocks are ridiculously overvalued right now, and if they simply return to “normal valuations”, pension funds are going to lose trillions of dollars.

We are talking about a financial tsunami that will be absolutely unprecedented in our history, and yet investors continue to act like the party can last forever.

In fact, we just learned that margin debt on Wall Street has just hit another brand new record high…

The latest data from the New York Stock Exchange show margin debt, or cash borrowed to buy shares, hit a record $528.2 billion in February, up from its prior high of $513.3 billion in January.

Of course my regular readers already know that margin debt also shot up to dramatic peaks just before the last two stock market crashes as well…


Prior periods when margin debt hit records occurred around stock market peaks, including 2000 when the dot-com stock boom went bust, and 2007 when stocks began to crater amid early signs of trouble in the housing market ahead of the 2008 financial crisis.


Margin debt jumped 22% from the end of 1999 before peaking in March 2000 at $278.5 billion, the same month stocks peaked. In 2007, margin debt shot up to $381.4 billion in July, three months before stocks topped.


We are perfectly primed for the greatest financial disaster in American history, and yet very few people are sounding the alarm.
This massive financial bubble is a ticking time bomb, and when it finally goes off it is going to wipe out virtually every pension fund in the United States.

https://www.forexfactory.com//dsms0m...ing-caring.png

March 30th, 2017 | Tags: Commercial Mortgages, Mortgages, Pension, Pension Crisis, Pension Crisis 2017, Pension Fund, Pension Funds, Pensions, Pensions Underfunded, Pensios Underfunded, Retirement, Risky Investments | Category: Financial Markets, The Economy, The Next Great Depression

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...cle-of-change/


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You said China will become the financial capital of the world after 2032. That means the US must decline. At the same time, you have been consistent in forecasting a bull market in the U.S. share market when everyone else keeps calling for a crash. Are the two connected in some way?

Thank you

HS

ANSWER: Yes, these two events are interlocked. All markets function very distinctly. They move like a pendulum. The famous one in the United Nations building with the classic physics experiment, Foucault’s pendulum, is propelled by the rotation of the earth itself. While it had long been known that the Earth rotates, the introduction of the Foucault pendulum back in 1851 was the first visual proof of the rotation of the Earth in an extraordinary easy-to-see experiment. The pendulum remains in a constant oscillation relative to the universe. As the earth rotates, we can see that it does so around the constant path of the pendulum swing.
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....rs-300x262.jpgThis applies to market behavior as well. There is a constant oscillation to everything we call our Benchmarks. They remain constant within the universe and everything else rotates around them. The energy that maintains the cycle is the constant oscillation between two extremes. The further it swings in one direction, the greater the energy moves in the opposite direction.

This is the very essence of how everything moves. This is the creation of energy to keep things going from the instant of creation also known as big bang. Personally, I do not believe in just a simple big bang. I believe after big bang; the expansion will stop and then reverse and move back toward the point of origin. Then it will explode outward once again. I do not believe it was a one-time event since energy can neither be created nor destroyed – only transformed between states.
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeco...False-Move.jpg
Now apply this to markets. The real energy within a market is always to trap the majority, for then they lose money and it forces them to cover their position. If 90% of the people are long, then any news can set off the collapse. If you scare the majority, there will be no bid when you try to sell, which results in a flash crash. Likewise, this current rally in the Dow from 2009 has been the most bearish in history. The majority of analysts still keep calling for an inevitable crash.

Retail participation still remains near historic lows. You cannot get a crash of major consequence as long as the bulk of the people are not invested in the market. Here you see how the market ALWAYS makes a false move just before it makes the real move in the direction of the underlying trend. At each correction, the emotions run high and people ALWAYS expect whatever trend is in motion will remain in motion. Hence, shorts build up and then they are compelled to cover and that gets the rally moving.
http://armstrongeconomics-wp.s3.amaz...-1790-1923.jpg
Markets are fractal. So whatever you see on only level of time, must exist on all levels of time or else it is not real. The Dow made a Yearly FALSE MOVE on a number of occasions. For example, the high of 1916 dropped from 8500 to 6590 and established the low in 1917. It then swung to the upside, reached new highs at 11960 in 1919, and then on the panic back down.

The Dow made its intraday high in 1889, which was followed by a one year panic into 1890. It then swung back to the highest yearly closing in 1892 with the famous Panic of 1893 immediately thereafter.

A similar pattern unfolded with a high in 1872, a panic penetrating the previous year’s low in 1873, and then a dramatic swing to new high the next year in 1874.

These are just a few examples.
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws....es-300x223.jpg
The goldbugs simply hate me even saying that gold can still move below $1,000. They approach everything only in a linear concept – it must only move up and never down. This is how they lose money consistently. The extreme ones are married to this idea that gold will rise in an apocalyptic fashion when everything else turns to dust. There is always a FALSE move before the true direction. A move for gold below $1,000 will create the energy needed to send it soaring past the $2300 level which is the 1980 high adjusted for inflation. This is what our Reversal System is all about. It is to define that point of no return where we can differentiate between a false move and a real breakout.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...my-600x425.jpg
Now, because everything is fractal, and we have been able to identify the existence of constant Benchmarks in everything, it becomes possible to observe the rotation of capital around the world which is behind the rise and fall of every civilization since the dawn of the human race. In 1990, China was just 5% of world GDP. Now in 2015 it has risen to 15%. The United States is the world’s largest national economy in nominal terms representing 24.5% of nominal global GDP.
https://armstrongmedia.s3.amazonaws..../03/marx-4.jpgWe first must send the share markets up dramatically. This will be the FALSE MOVE that makes everyone see that the USA is the only game in town. That will be the extreme point, reaching the maximum swing and then its own weight will cause it to move back in the opposite direction. Just as the British Empire rapidly collapsed following World War I handing that title of Financial Capital of the World to the USA, we will see the same take place as that title moves to China. One of the critical factors that will kill the US economy will be taxes and overregulation – both the socialist’s dreams come true. What broke the back of China and Russia in 1989, was this same failure of Marxist philosophies that call for total central planning by government. It is merely the West’s turn to now collapse because of the same philosophy of Karl Marx.


Only a fool believes in the fairy-tales of happily ever after. There is a cycle to everything. The Pension Crisis Report went into detail. Men mature slower than women, so historically the man was always much older than his wife. Hollywood sold lust as love at first sight and as the age difference collapsed, divorce reached cyclical highs. As they say, a girl becomes a woman at 23 but a boy does not become a man until 40. Women married boys but expected them to be men. Today, much of the youth reject marriage and having children. The demographics and changing life styles are undermining the entire idea of pension systems. This is a crash that will also propel the shift. Interestingly enough, in the former communist regions, people never trusted government so they expected nothing in return by tyranny. In the West, society still believes in government and the dream that they will be there. When government falls, Western society will not be as self-sufficient as they were in China. Socialism replaced the family structure in the West so children did not save to take care of their parents – that was government’s job. We face a lot of real social problems moving into 2032. That’s what our WEC conferences are all about.


Categories: Understanding Cycles
Tags: Big Bang, China, cycles, markets
« Why Science Fails to Understand Cycles – They Lack the Connections

Great job you are doing here on this thread Mr BenjaminIS and the rest.its your trading EDGE that keeps the profits running .I have LEARN alot on this thrread.thanks

http://economicprism.com/failure-to-launch/#more-5442

← March to Default

Failure to Launch

Posted on March 31, 2017 by MN Gordon

http://economicprism.com/wp-content/...Earthquake.pngThe future is here and it’s not all it was cracked up to be. For example, one of the great disappointments of the 21st century, thus far, is the lack of flying cars. Wasn’t this supposed to be the signature achievement of Tomorrowland?


The frustration was aptly expressed by PayPal cofounder and early Facebook investor Peter Thiel when he said, “We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.” Of course, the 140 character reference is in regard to Twitter and its 140 character limit per tweet.


Indeed, Twitter is a second-rate alternative to flying cars. What’s more, it has the ill-effect of reducing people’s brains to mashed potatoes. In place of well-reasoned and thoughtful discourse, Twitter promotes inane statements from Congressional representatives and even the President.


But all is not lost. For the flying car will soon be a reality. The IFO – or Identified Flying Object – is a proposed two seat concept drone that looks like a UFO.

Not only does it fly. It’s safe too. According to its specifications, if the eight battery powered electric rotary engines run out of juice, the cockpit detaches and a parachute releases and safely guides the passengers to the ground.

From what we gather, the IFO concept isn’t all that novel. Backyard enthusiasts have been developing and test piloting these contraptions for years. We suppose these experimental flights are uninsured.

What’s the point?

Financial Psychopaths
The point is, soon you’ll be able to have your cake and eat it too. Specifically, you’ll be able to rifle off 140 character tweets from the comfort of your flying car. Does it get any better than that?


Naturally, it depends who you ask. Tweets from flying cars are not for everyone. For instance, one fellow may prefer a jumbo cola and a hot dog at a Major League Baseball game. Another may favor reading a Dickens novel from a mountain cabin in the woods.

It comes down to choices and individual preferences. Yet in today’s world, constructed through financial engineering, certain choices and individual preferences are grossly penalized. Specifically, hard work, diligent saving, and paying one’s way are virtues that are punished with exacting deception.

The crafty wizards at the Federal Reserve have contrived a world of declining interest rates for over 35-years. Presently, savers get next to nothing on their capital. Leverage addicted madmen, on the other hand, get rich.


In particular, financial psychopaths have been able to borrow gobs of money, plow it into assets – like stocks, bonds, and real estate – and then refinance every several years at lower and lower rates. Plus, if that wasn’t good enough, they could count on the Fed to induce perpetually higher asset prices to bail them out if they got into a pinch.


Failure to Launch
Since December 15, roughly three and a half months ago, the Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds rate two times, by 25 basis points per rate increase. The last time the Fed increased the federal funds rate by this amount was over a decade ago. What do credit markets make of it?


If you can believe it, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury note has not gone up over this period. Rather, it’s gone down. From 2.58 percent on December 15 to 2.42 percent as of market close on Thursday.


What’s going on? Is the Fed yet again manning the monetary controls without a clue? Are the stagnant yields a sign that, once again, and despite many attempts following the Great Recession, the economy has had yet another failure to launch?


No doubt, time will tell. However, at the moment, the commercial credit market has offered several utterances on the matter. Here we’ll turn to The Telegraph for explanation:
“One key measure of US corporate borrowing is falling at the fastest rate since the onset of the Lehman Brothers crisis. Money supply growth in the US has also slowed markedly. These monetary and credit signals tend to be leading indicators for the real economy.


“Data from the US Federal Reserve shows that the $2 trillion market for commercial and industrial loans peaked in December. The sector has weakened abruptly as lenders tighten credit, especially for non-residential property. Over the last three months it has dropped at a rate of 5.4pc on annual basis, a pace of decline not seen since December 2008.



“The deterioration in the broader $9 trillion market for loans and leases has been less dramatic but it too is shrinking, falling at a 1.6pc rate on a three-month basis. ‘Corporate lending has ground to a halt and I am staggered that the Fed is raising rates. They have made a very big mistake,’ said Patrick Perret-Green from AdMacro.”


Certainly, the Fed always makes big mistakes. The long and short of it is fixing the price of credit via a central planning authority is a fool’s game. For whatever reason, Yellen and her cohorts are compelled to go after it with gusto – even as they further distort the world into absurdity.



Their plan, you see, is to fix their mistakes with even bigger mistakes. When the credit market cracks in earnest, they’ll follow it up with something especially foolish.

Sincerely,
MN Gordon
for Economic Prism

Return from Failure to Launch to Economic Prism

[quote=BenjaminIs;9724873]{quote} Hello Everyone I left my home at near 6 AM Eastern Standard Time and was not able to post here all day even though I did a number of FX trades using my Tablet Samsung Tab A First let me answer the question. When we have RISK OFF and money FLOWS into the Dow or the SPX500 then money PARKED in USD/JPY leaves that pair and it goes higher as in 112.000 So....

Greetings Mr Benjamin and all,

Should it not be the other way round, i.e When we have RISK OFF, money flows into safety net such as Gold or low/no risk position such as treasury bonds in tandem with UJ meaning USD/JPY should head lower.

When we have RISK ON and money FLOWS to safety some money FLOWS back to USD/JPY and it heads to 110.000

While RISK ON, money flows into high yielding stocks, likes of DOW, SPX500 and UJ goes higher


Now on another SUBJECT !!! EUR/USD ... When We have RISK OFF then US DOLLARS are purchased in order to buy US Equities so if EUR/USD goes down more US Dollars are used and Euro's are sold and also the more US Dollars bought the More that US Dollars Index goes up. KeepCalmfx when you get up in the morning can you confirm my comments. I am very tired and need confirm

I got here before KeepCalmfx and I thought I should add my 2cents Rest well!!