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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #4,001
  • Mar 30, 2017 5:06am Mar 30, 2017 5:06am
And also note that F was inside period of E: this is a new attempted break above. In case of failure upside, natural direction is the opposite side of F period, down to the open level 2428. In case of success we have Tokyo high 2450 and then if accepted above it, we eventually have the major composite poc at 2481.
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  • #4,002
  • Mar 30, 2017 6:01am Mar 30, 2017 6:01am
Quoting Lock
{quote} It could: taken out. Now let's see if Tokyo poor high is possible too at 2450.
Eventually taken out.
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  • #4,003
  • Mar 30, 2017 6:02am Mar 30, 2017 6:02am
24595 is yesterday GB unchanged level. (yesterday GB last price before preUS open)
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  • #4,004
  • Mar 30, 2017 6:04am Mar 30, 2017 6:04am
2476, as written previously is the high of yesterday GB range.
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  • #4,005
  • Mar 30, 2017 6:07am Mar 30, 2017 6:07am
Note that 2476 is also the low of the GB gap downside. 2481, major composite poc and our final possible destination for current GB session is inside this gap.
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  • #4,006
  • Mar 30, 2017 6:15am Mar 30, 2017 6:15am
17/03/30 THURSDAY 13:15+1GMT
EARLY AFTERNOON REPORT

Because we are close to preUS open, let's start to think about yesterday US sessions ranges. The overall US action occurred from 2397 to 24623. Pit session range is 2397-24465. It will be important to consider the preUS open in relation to pit high at 24465 and preUS high at 24623.
An open above this levels could provide a new pit gap upside for upcoming pit session (open 15:30+1GMT) And this could let the market skip a new test of the lower major half backs (24063 and 23975). This could happen if we will open with a new gap upside (above 24465) and if this new possible gap will not be retraced quickly (let's say in the 3 first periods of pit session, but it is only a relative number)

If the pit session will open gapping higher from yesterday pit high (above 24465) then we could seriously start to think to a correction of Tuesday anomalies left during pit session liquidation and, eventually, if we will see continuation upside, we could also aim at the Tuesday pit session poor high at 2556 and the preUS poor high just above it at 2563. Obviously it is a big run but consider that the Tuesday move downside was very emotional and all the anomalies it left above are a clear sign of weak participation, meaning that all that impressive move downside was probably leaded by weak hands and not strong ones.

If instead pit open will open below 24465, meaning inside yesterday pit range, we will expect initial acceptation of yesterday values and then eventually tests above and/or below the yesterday range limits. In this case a new test of the lower major references (24063 and 23975) will be not impossible.
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  • #4,007
  • Mar 30, 2017 8:55am Mar 30, 2017 8:55am
So pit session gapped higher from yesterday pit high at 24465 and for now it skipped a possible test downside to the lower major half backs. Instead, as normal, the new gap upside is currently supporting the action upside. Current pit high went up exactly to major ref 2524 (upper pit weekly bracke half back) slightly below the upper GB weekly bracket half back at 2526 (an other major reference).

As written in the previous report, if the gap will not be retraced quickly we could aim at 2556 Tuesday pit poor high and 2563 Tuesday preUS poor high.

In any case do not underestimate the attraction power of the composite poc at 2481 in case of lack of continuation upside.
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  • #4,008
  • Mar 30, 2017 9:03am Mar 30, 2017 9:03am
An other important reference in this zone is the always working 1.25122 (inside weekly balance high made during 20.11.16). Acceptation above it is needed in order to possibly imagin continuation upside.
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  • #4,009
  • Mar 30, 2017 10:07am Mar 30, 2017 10:07am
Quoting Lock
... In any case do not underestimate the attraction power of the composite poc at 2481 in case of lack of continuation upside.
And here we are...
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  • #4,010
  • Mar 30, 2017 11:37am Mar 30, 2017 11:37am
Hi Lock, your opinion is always valued by me. I see the 1.24 support holding well today as well. We also saw USD/JPY not being able to hold above 111.50 (bullish bias). As such, I'm inclined to believe the cable has what it takes to extend to 1.26 and attempt towards 1.32 again. What do you think?

I'm not saying we're getting to 1.32, but I think we will find ourselves in 1.26 space again and gunning for 1.32. What do you think?
  • #4,011
  • Edited 1:49pm Mar 30, 2017 1:38pm | Edited 1:49pm
Quoting KovanTrader
Hi Lock, your opinion is always valued by me. I see the 1.24 support holding well today as well. We also saw USD/JPY not being able to hold above 111.50 (bullish bias). As such, I'm inclined to believe the cable has what it takes to extend to 1.26 and attempt towards 1.32 again. What do you think? I'm not saying we're getting to 1.32, but I think we will find ourselves in 1.26 space again and gunning for 1.32. What do you think?
Hi KovanTrader, thank you for your appreciations. Btw other traders' opinions are important for me too.

I, as a day trader, generally tend to consider any market a piece at a time. If I was an investor I would make other considerations or analisys. Obviously I'm aware of the general environment and I always give importance to major timeframes action, meaning that I study and evaluate the possible undergoing trend or balance.

Having said this we currently are in a full balance environment, in what I considered one of the most uncertain market of the last years. I saw no participation at all of major timeframes bigger than short term, at least in the last months starting with the last major brexit break. So in such an environment I noticed that generally the trends last for 3, 4 max 10 days, then they revert. And this confirms the absence of major operators who jenerally stay involved in a market for at least some weaks or some months if investors. As a conclusion right now I've no idea whatsoever of what this market could provide us in the next days. I only see that we left downside a very poor structure and that at the same time the upwards situation is equally full of weaknesses.

Best L.
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  • #4,012
  • Mar 30, 2017 1:41pm Mar 30, 2017 1:41pm
Quoting Lock
....In any case do not underestimate the attraction power of the composite poc at 2481 in case of lack of continuation upside.
I hope anyone who's following this thread will appreciate the importance of market generated information. Price action remained glued here at 2481 for the last 3 hours and more. Now volume is needed to evade this level as it attracts price. And I see no volume at all nor I see any sort of partecipation but weaker hands clustering in balance.
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  • #4,013
  • Mar 30, 2017 1:45pm Mar 30, 2017 1:45pm
Today pit session simply liquidated part of overnight inventories clearly too long after the rally made during preUS and left above, during this liquidation, a weak period C high at previous half back 2508, an other weak period high at 2500 round (again when it happened if was half back level).
Furthermore it made a poor low cluster at 24705. It could take out the poor low, but the risk of a retracement going down is high, considering the composite poc at 2481 and the 2 weak levels left above. Also the new gap upside is still in place supporting the entire session.

The notable fact of today is the rejection (too exact in my opinion but it could happen) of the 2524 level (half back of the upper pit weekly bracket)
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  • #4,014
  • Mar 30, 2017 1:52pm Mar 30, 2017 1:52pm
Olso I think that today acttion has been influenced heavily by USDX rally.
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  • #4,015
  • Mar 30, 2017 4:03pm Mar 30, 2017 4:03pm
Quoting Lock
Olso I think that today acttion has been influenced heavily by USDX rally.
pls can you give any other book on market profile apart from the one given
  • #4,016
  • Mar 30, 2017 7:55pm Mar 30, 2017 7:55pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} Hi KovanTrader, thank you for your appreciations. Btw other traders' opinions are important for me too. I, as a day trader, generally tend to consider any market a piece at a time. If I was an investor I would make other considerations or analisys. Obviously I'm aware of the general environment and I always give importance to major timeframes action, meaning that I study and evaluate the possible undergoing trend or balance. Having said this we currently are in a full balance environment, in what I considered one of the most uncertain market...
Aligned with you as well. I'm a day trader too, I rarely hold positions for more than a week or even 3 days. I think we are in an environment where things move too quickly. For instance, I was long from 1.07xx on EUR/USD. It hit around 1.09, wished I took profit then-I took profit around 1.08xx. If I didn't, I would be looking at a big red right now.

So yeah, the market moves very rapidly in both directions now. As I am typing this, cable has collasped back to 1.248X from flirting with 1.25 lol. Cheers to all.
  • #4,017
  • Mar 31, 2017 4:30am Mar 31, 2017 4:30am
E inside D and rejection at yesterday GB spike base 24432. If the rejection at this level is confirmed we could rally from here. The problem is that for now we have only weak money involved and we are clustering at open price 2459.
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  • #4,018
  • Mar 31, 2017 4:32am Mar 31, 2017 4:32am
Quoting adetola99
{quote} pls can you give any other book on market profile apart from the one given
Remember me the one I give you the first time please. Best L.
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  • #4,019
  • Mar 31, 2017 4:43am Mar 31, 2017 4:43am
Quoting KovanTrader
{quote} Aligned with you as well. I'm a day trader too, I rarely hold positions for more than a week or even 3 days. I think we are in an environment where things move too quickly. For instance, I was long from 1.07xx on EUR/USD. It hit around 1.09, wished I took profit then-I took profit around 1.08xx. If I didn't, I would be looking at a big red right now. So yeah, the market moves very rapidly in both directions now. As I am typing this, cable has collasped back to 1.248X from flirting with 1.25 lol. Cheers to all.
Technically anyone is a day trader because anyone enter a market during a particular day. The difference between timeframes is how do you enter a market and the size of your entry, plus how you are going to hold your position. A day timeframe properly is a trader who enter a market during day, generally making more than one position (but it could also be zero positions for some time) and then he went flat at market close.
A short term is a trader who place his position during a particular day and then holds that position for more than one day, generally ranging from 3-4 days to a "maximum" of 10 days. Mid terms could instead enter a market and hold positions for weeks or months while finally investors could be involved in a market even for years. Also mid terms and investors, because of their size, generally split positions in order to have a mid entry level instead of a single shot. Generally there is not enough liquidity to let them place their position in one single shot nor they generally tend to be heroes placing their position at an exact particular level. A splitted position allows them to be more cautious.

I made this recap because I consider extremely important to understand where and when market participants could anter or esc a market and how they do this. So if you hold a position for more than one day you are at least a short term trader and my suggestion to short term traders his to alignthemselves to what a short term behaviour generally is. Meaning enter when they generally enter and esc when they generally esc.

The market generated information I try to provide here are probably more usefull for day timeframes who tend, as said, to be flat at market close. Best L.
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  • #4,020
  • Mar 31, 2017 4:49am Mar 31, 2017 4:49am
Quoting Lock
E inside D and rejection at yesterday GB spike base 24432. If the rejection at this level is confirmed we could rally from here. The problem is that for now we have only weak money involved and we are clustering at open price 2459.
It failed once the attempted break above E balance and as normal here we are at the opposite side of that little balance, meaning E period low. Will it test again the yesterday spike base?
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