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The Really Useless Thread

  • #149,121
  • Mar 30, 2017 5:32am Mar 30, 2017 5:32am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} We are we rolling for the Q close? A. 1.083x B. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but above the 1.09x handle C. 1.076x D. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but below the 1.06x handle E. No fck clue. sisse
Hi Sisse, very much interested to know what is your take to this?
  • #149,122
  • Mar 30, 2017 7:16am Mar 30, 2017 7:16am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i opted for caution.. it to me seems 0699 ish has decent st odds now.. after 0829 was broken, 0585 should be a norm retrace before 1.13.. i assumed 1087 or 11xx is still going to happen, but my timing didnt work out so far.. with decent odds still for 1087 11xx.. waiting for 0585 may be the best way to play it now.... so i could wait for now for 0699 or 0585.. either way i wouldn't touch it myself here with a fresh trade, long or short.
i may take a micro pop short.. between 0758/73 and target 0699 minus a few pips for spread..0r 0701..looks plausible with a risk of 10 or less pips.. 0758 probably normal, but i may wait for 0765 and stop above 0773. atm 073x
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,123
  • Mar 30, 2017 7:22am Mar 30, 2017 7:22am
An uneventful European session across the board. Eyes on US reports to close the Quarter.

Expecting inline numbers although some revisions in collateral and correlated numbers has been revised upwards. Only a major revision upwards will trigger something else....

Quoting kins98
UBS FX sell-side research for /dx tech and macro - personally in agreement with this {image}
I strongly disagree with that view both TA and FA at least with the current data and current levels.

Actually lets open an open discussion that I think it is very relevant for the latest discussion and also we'll open a 'crowd' decision to make a call on this one and then give the [check] to the report or [failure]...

We'll open the call with the Q close for now just some pre scanning Questions:

Q1. Here is a very zoom in chart of Dollar with some FED hikes marks. What do you guys think about the current levels (still a couple of days for Q/M close). Do we have a break or extension of lows? ... don't add anything else to the charts or questions for now. Just strictly price wise ignoring if its bullish/bearish or what is the map and outlooks.

sisse

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXQ1.png Size: 251 KB


PS:@gatorinla It's pretty much a 'done deal' if it just by inertia .... we are going to set the low of the week right after the open ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,124
  • Mar 30, 2017 7:32am Mar 30, 2017 7:32am
Quoting sisse
An uneventful European session across the board. Eyes on US reports to close the Quarter. Expecting inline numbers although some revisions in collateral and correlated numbers has been revised upwards. Only a major revision upwards will trigger something else.... {quote} I strongly disagree with that view both TA and FA at least with the current data and current levels. Actually lets open an open discussion that I think it is very relevant for the latest discussion and also we'll open a 'crowd' decision to make a call on this one and then give the...
Extension of swing low printed already with this month's candle. Not enough time or news to extend it further or break. So neither further extension of lows or break by close.
  • #149,125
  • Mar 30, 2017 7:32am Mar 30, 2017 7:32am
Inline / slightly better final reading ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,126
  • Mar 30, 2017 7:42am Mar 30, 2017 7:42am
*pop*
  • #149,127
  • Mar 30, 2017 7:43am Mar 30, 2017 7:43am
Quoting sisse
An uneventful European session across the board. Eyes on US reports to close the Quarter. Expecting inline numbers although some revisions in collateral and correlated numbers has been revised upwards. Only a major revision upwards will trigger something else.... {quote} I strongly disagree with that view both TA and FA at least with the current data and current levels. Actually lets open an open discussion that I think it is very relevant for the latest discussion and also we'll open a 'crowd' decision to make a call on this one and then give the...
It s an extension no break per yet
  • #149,128
  • Mar 30, 2017 7:46am Mar 30, 2017 7:46am
Quoting goosebone
*pop*
Final chance to change your view. Now with all on the table:

@goosebone Where are we rolling for the Q close?

A. 1.083x
B. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but above the 1.09x handle
C. 1.073x
D. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but below the 1.07x handle
E. No fck clue.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,129
  • Edited 8:01am Mar 30, 2017 7:50am | Edited 8:01am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Final chance to change your view. Now with all on the table: @goosebone Where are we rolling for the Q close? A. 1.083x B. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but above the 1.09x handle C. 1.073x D. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but below the 1.07x handle E. No fck clue. sisse
No thanks. While I can see a likely extension of low at 719 my guess is no break and back to 720/30 for the close. I hope I'm wrong but that's what I got. C is for confidence ☺(or Confused we will see)
  • #149,130
  • Mar 30, 2017 7:57am Mar 30, 2017 7:57am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Final chance to change your view. Now with all on the table: @goosebone Where are we rolling for the Q close? A. 1.083x B. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but above the 1.09x handle C. 1.073x D. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but below the 1.07x handle E. No fck clue. sisse

change from A to C most likely which is quarterly resistance from last year
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 50 KB
  • #149,131
  • Mar 30, 2017 8:07am Mar 30, 2017 8:07am
Currently we have extension of the low, but one single tweet could break it. I've strong feeling of the later.
  • #149,132
  • Mar 30, 2017 8:39am Mar 30, 2017 8:39am
I still go for A
  • #149,133
  • Mar 30, 2017 9:13am Mar 30, 2017 9:13am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I dont know. I think you may be reading a little into it. Or at least i thought the point was to mention there is more FA than just hike probability charts and to point out one part of that. Or even to say it's not all about the FED. But I didn't see a directional call for EU in that post. No change in outlook for the pair, outlook is sell. I too had 830 for Q close until 797 was broken. Since then it's looking 730 to me. But i agree its definitely possible to see 830+. Bears are not out of the woods just yet. Maybe in a few hours they will...
yes, totally agree, that post was not a directional post at all. But reading the conversation last days is the opinion I have regarding how a quaterly close can be affected by expectation in the future. The exhaustion leg is a short term trade, something large speculators may not care about.
  • #149,134
  • Mar 30, 2017 9:18am Mar 30, 2017 9:18am
Quoting Paintomaker
{quote} yes, totally agree, that post was not a directional post at all. But reading the conversation last days is the opinion I have regarding how a quaterly close can be affected by expectation in the future. The exhaustion leg is a short term trade, something large speculators may not care about.
I see what you mean. Plenty of time to get back to 830 that's for sure. Will be an interesting close.
  • #149,135
  • Mar 30, 2017 10:11am Mar 30, 2017 10:11am
It looks like just an extension of Lows on Dollar.

I picked .083x originally and it looks as if I am wrong. Not changing it now because I need to own it. .073x looks like the right answer.
  • #149,136
  • Mar 30, 2017 10:37am Mar 30, 2017 10:37am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Final chance to change your view. Now with all on the table: @goosebone Where are we rolling for the Q close? A. 1.083x B. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but above the 1.09x handle C. 1.073x D. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but below the 1.07x handle E. No fck clue. sisse
C
  • #149,137
  • Mar 30, 2017 11:17am Mar 30, 2017 11:17am
Quoting sisse
An uneventful European session across the board. Eyes on US reports to close the Quarter. Expecting inline numbers although some revisions in collateral and correlated numbers has been revised upwards. Only a major revision upwards will trigger something else.... {quote} I strongly disagree with that view both TA and FA at least with the current data and current levels. Actually lets open an open discussion that I think it is very relevant for the latest discussion and also we'll open a 'crowd' decision to make a call on this one and then give the...
Just purely looking at the chart, this is how I see it:
H&S pattern had developed on the daily TF - institutions pushed /dx below the neckline in order to initiate retail dollar shorts and remove some long $ positioning. Extension of the lows and we'll see a quarterly close ABOVE the previous late 2015 range on your chart. Therefore, from a purely price action point of view, the dollar continues to be bullish.

I initially agreed with the UBS view because US10Y yields were looking v heavy indeed and thus, interest rate differentials would push appreciation in favour of XXX in XXX/USD (all other factors equal of course). Just opened the chart and yields are now up 1.2% on the day and have retraced all of yesterday's move. They are effectively moving sideways, there are no significant flows at play. Got my eyes too focused on the trees and need to view the forest as a whole.

I really appreciate your processes and insight; you've enabled me to take a completely different look at the markets.
  • #149,138
  • Edited 12:16pm Mar 30, 2017 11:54am | Edited 12:16pm
*pop*

Tp1 here at 690. Replacing my original slightly smaller one at 640. Leaves a tad less on the table but stops paid is a good feeling.
  • #149,139
  • Mar 30, 2017 12:09pm Mar 30, 2017 12:09pm
....and I will take that in the Euro. Clearing first target in the short term swing on the test of 1.069x. Well done all riding it from the 1.080x handle, especially those from 1.087x (I know a few here..2 thumbs up...if you didn't get the AHA this time ....never .... you owe me a few beers).

Not expecting much more for the day ...we pretty much have set low and highs of the Q/M/W and D ...

sisse

Quoting sisse
{quote} ... Has anything changed? @Earleone ...just for the sake of the argument and since last question wasn't triggered, we keep going for a bit longer. Now for the 9th time: Should we take shorts 1.079x -> 1.069x [check] -> 1.054x ? or double up and trade 1.079xx -> 1.087x -> 1.098x? ...
@Earleone .....1.069x tested. Now for the 10th and final time in the last 10 consecutive days. Should you add shorts 1.073x -> that final 1.054x target? => or what if I triple you up and trade 1.068x -> 1.077x till NFP? ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,140
  • Mar 30, 2017 12:18pm Mar 30, 2017 12:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i may take a micro pop short.. between 0758/73 and target 0699 minus a few pips for spread..0r 0701..looks plausible with a risk of 10 or less pips.. 0758 probably normal, but i may wait for 0765 and stop above 0773. atm 073x
canceled.. never hit entry
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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