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The Really Useless Thread

  • #149,061
  • Mar 28, 2017 4:52pm Mar 28, 2017 4:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} week since opened with a gap higher. the month is days from closing. i suspect closing it above 1.0816 on the higher leg is not bearish..if one subtracts about 25 pips from it on a close may also be not bearish, but it may be less bullish than above 1.0816.. the next month bar hurdle may be 1.115, its near 25 pis above 1.1087. so it may be a decent R area.. or even minamal norm before a new drop.. that norm area could be 600 pips wide. a good rule of caution is to b.e. and take whats given.. if one is playing off a week.. that R at...
the day did close below 1.0816.. but it may not mean much to the month.. so far since this little drop,, 1.0816 is the high atm.. but it may mean little in the big picture.
caution to bears if it starts closing above 1.0816
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,062
  • Mar 28, 2017 4:59pm Mar 28, 2017 4:59pm
...for the record a formality really. Article 50 letter signed. Brexit chapter 2 core moves triggered.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,063
  • Mar 28, 2017 5:01pm Mar 28, 2017 5:01pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} This is the quarters with their mids. If you have Metatrader, the indicator that does this is here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...43#post9716643 {image}
Awesome. Thanks for this
  • #149,064
  • Edited 5:14pm Mar 28, 2017 5:02pm | Edited 5:14pm
First quick update to wrap up (kick start I would rather say) this very long chapter thats is starting:

-> Confirming long term outlook in UK Equities in strong sell.
-> Setting mid term outlook in UK Equities in sell.
-> Changing short term outlook in UK Equities from neutral to soft sell.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,065
  • Mar 28, 2017 5:03pm Mar 28, 2017 5:03pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} What are you aiming for? Short term swing? mid term swing? Are we trading Q/M? at these levels and time? Are you eyeballing a Brexit reaction in the short term? Even if we assume this is a daily signal. What makes you think is invalid? or what would make you think is invalid? Give you a hint to explore. We have done it couple of times already. Remember we discussed some random entry triggers in some iteration (19 and some other). Assume mid or short term swing (doesn't matter) and now that you are 'assuming' a play with today close: 1. Plot...
well, I remember the itineration very well. showing that the PA trigger is the earliest one and the one most simply accesable if one knows what is looking for.

so let me try this: we are aiming for next ST swing down

look at first chart, I think thats all clear.

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now look at the other chart.

How could you know that your 2/2 PA signal was NOT a retrace which would later turn into a run up into extreme suggested by me on chart???

And when we get similar signal on recent leg (move to extreme) how can we know its not just a retrace before another extension???

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P.S.: I know this was also discussed in the itinerations. Will go through it again. But if you have any comment which has not been mentioned on this, pls share
  • #149,066
  • Mar 28, 2017 5:04pm Mar 28, 2017 5:04pm
Second round of updates from the Brexit front:

-> Confirming short and mid term outlook in Sterling* in strong neutral in a wide range.
-> Changing long term outlook in Sterling* from neutral to sell.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,067
  • Mar 28, 2017 5:07pm Mar 28, 2017 5:07pm
Third round of updates from the Brexit front:

-> Changing mid and long term outlook in Euro* from sell to neutral.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,068
  • Mar 28, 2017 5:13pm Mar 28, 2017 5:13pm
Fourth round of updates from the Brexit front:

-> Changing long term outlook in EZ equities from neutral to buy

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,069
  • Mar 28, 2017 5:17pm Mar 28, 2017 5:17pm
Quoting sisse
Third round of updates from the Brexit front: -> Changing mid and long term outlook in Euro* from sell to neutral. sisse
Folks notice that the outlook is about Euro* not EURUSD .

I was waiting for this one , updates to Euro matrix
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #149,070
  • Mar 28, 2017 5:19pm Mar 28, 2017 5:19pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} Folks notice that the outlook is about Euro* not EURUSD . I was waiting for this one , updates to Euro matrix
Quoting hoom
What with all the rumours from ECB lately , last I checked when this kind of headlines starts popping up then something real is coming so it wont shock the markets !....
and by the way Sisse , does that confirm that there is some truth to the rumours/headlines from ECB members lately ?
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #149,071
  • Mar 28, 2017 5:30pm Mar 28, 2017 5:30pm
plus even if we today closed below the yellow area like we did in february (see my last chart) it does not mean the microswing up is over. so what was so different in february

Im on my way to madness
  • #149,072
  • Mar 28, 2017 5:30pm Mar 28, 2017 5:30pm
For those interested in more details. There is very extensive backpost on the expected flows and dominos from the Brexit front.

--> In a nutshell, depending in how big is the damage (ranging from leaving common market and all or just a soft exit) the impact will range between mild negative to major blow and collapse in the real economy.

--> There is nearly zero to none chances (as for the information we have today) of any positive outcome in the UK economy until 2020 and prolly beyond.

--> Financial sector is deep in the way out already but will leave in mass if negotiations imply losing all market access. Nearly 45% of the UK GDP that depends directly/indirectly to the European market is in play in the negotiations.

--> What is guarantee all the industries, services (especially in finance) that depend exclusively on the EU access will be gone that why this will have a positive impact in EZ/EU equities as there is a very large pie for grabbing that need to relocate business. Germany, Ireland, Netherlands and France are aligning to have a great boost.

--> On the the uncertainty side, Sterling* will be held on check via inflation and only a major blow out on risk or a confirmation that the UK will be completely isolated from world trade will send Sterling as low as nearly parity (yes parity) 1.06x that just got fundamentally unlocked for the long term today.

--> Main flow to track trading wise in this Brexit chapter 2 is shifting from Sterling* to Equities and depending on how negotiations pan out (especially after France election are cleared) the transition to a big blow in the real economy later.

--> From tomorrow onwards, the UK will have 12240 directives to regulate, and in 2 years will be officially the develop country with less access to world markets with WTO standards with almost all major economies except some micro insignificant Commonwealth countries .. on top of a team of populist, nationalist dinosaurs managing economic policy and with the UK in a brink of disintegrating with Scotland and N.Ireland knocking the exit door ....

A rather very gloomy outlook ... with plenty of trading opportunities to benefit in the process.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,073
  • Mar 28, 2017 5:42pm Mar 28, 2017 5:42pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} {quote} and by the way Sisse , does that confirm that there is some truth to the rumours/headlines from ECB members lately ?
Euro* updates from the Euro side alone will come after French elections or a bit before if the difference is so overwhelming clear (so far is clear but not in clear enough in the first round) that we can mark the elections as just uneventful [check].

We will need to deal with this current status quo till then.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,074
  • Mar 28, 2017 6:13pm Mar 28, 2017 6:13pm
not sold the upmove has ended eu wise. just depends on 0816 to me..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,075
  • Mar 28, 2017 6:18pm Mar 28, 2017 6:18pm
still have a pending gbp buy at 2259 from weeks back.. stop just under 2240..just in case
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,076
  • Mar 28, 2017 6:33pm Mar 28, 2017 6:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
still have a pending gbp buy at 2259 from weeks back.. stop just under 2240..just in case {image}
With Brexit news this week simply being that article 50 is signed, so no news, and the record number of shorts to be squeezed, ST substantial lift in GBP could be possible.

http://news.forexlive.com/!/video-ho...le-50-20170326
  • #149,077
  • Mar 28, 2017 7:00pm Mar 28, 2017 7:00pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Im still not sure which boat to use to fish for this fish. But last time sisse was looking on D1. On W1 we may miss the cheap tickets zone I guess. {image}
Perhaps you're over analyzing it. We've got a solid plan
  • #149,078
  • Mar 28, 2017 7:11pm Mar 28, 2017 7:11pm
Quoting sisse
For those interested in more details. There is very extensive backpost on the expected flows and dominos from the Brexit front. --> In a nutshell, depending in how big is the damage (ranging from leaving common market and all or just a soft exit) the impact will range between mild negative to major blow and collapse in the real economy. --> There is nearly zero to none chances (as for the information we have today) of any positive outcome in the UK economy until 2020 and prolly beyond. --> Financial sector is deep in the way out already but will...
very good post.
thanks sisse.
/r
  • #149,079
  • Mar 28, 2017 8:47pm Mar 28, 2017 8:47pm
Quoting cashfactor
{quote} With Brexit news this week simply being that article 50 is signed, so no news, and the record number of shorts to be squeezed, ST substantial lift in GBP could be possible. http://news.forexlive.com/!/video-ho...le-50-20170326
i didnt base it on anything much except where the news release was.. a week ago, i placed the long. in the view the news release level is a support of some type. and many times it will test it..before continuing. if wrong i will get stopped out with a small loss or my entry will not be triggered
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,080
  • Mar 28, 2017 9:16pm Mar 28, 2017 9:16pm
I think I went from IMARICH1 to IMABASTARD w sisse. Anyways, he ignored my post to either not embarrass me or just moving on to other things.

I wanted to post a live trade. It's opposite of Outlook. But its apart of the retrace. I could be absolutley wrong but I want to know why.

Why on how far this retrace is supposed to go? Why .0870, .090x or .093x. Why not .097x or .107x

What should we be doing on this retrace? Play the retrace long? How far is a normal retrace and how far is a normal extension?

I played the longs up to .082x and got stopped out at .078x; then, re entered a Short at .086x to .0808.

Now, I am Long from .0805 to .0830, .093x and .097x

is this a ridiculous trade? Should I be called IMABASTARD?
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