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  • #149,021
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:07pm Mar 28, 2017 1:07pm
I we have set the low on USD then we can go sideways or down on EURUSD. I think down it is and then start a long time of choppy behaviour.
  • #149,022
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:10pm Mar 28, 2017 1:10pm
Quoting sisse
Great day for trading after superb numbers from the US ignite Equities across the wold. When markets move with macro numbers instead of Tweets, populist and nationalist blah blah , things go a lot smoother not only for trading but for the real economy ....Sadly don't think it will last for much longer as politicians (and the populist/nationalistic ones) are aligning to keep us busy for the foreseeable future .... In any case, all markets moving in synch until tomorrow Brexit noise and then for the Q close flows. sisse {quote} @goosebone...
sorry for the length
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  • #149,023
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:16pm Mar 28, 2017 1:16pm
closed both eur/usd short and usd/jpy long trades +85 and +50 pips done for the next monthly target.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #149,024
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:18pm Mar 28, 2017 1:18pm
Sisse,

Nothing has changed. US data still strong and rate hikes coming w possibly an extra one. Brexit on its way.

OUTLOOK IS SELL ST, MT and LT
I ignorantly want to say a Long at .081x or my number (.0808) that seems to always show support or resistance. I may be ignorant here.

I took a short from .086x and am trailing tightly looking to take profit at .080x area. Looks like it hit so I'm flat now.

I think we could have already set a W low this week and my gut still says .097x on the radar. Probably just showed my ignorance here.
  • #149,025
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:18pm Mar 28, 2017 1:18pm
Bravo PriceAction1.
  • #149,026
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:20pm Mar 28, 2017 1:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its not as if a rate raise is a surprise. so suppose they dont because of the political events atm.. trump, France, GB. un-stable markets are also a threat the FED acknowledges. just a thought to push back on the herd mentality {image}
in it now 1.0816/1.0791
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,027
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:21pm Mar 28, 2017 1:21pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} We are in a uptrend. With a sell outlook. We have tested top and fading so a trade from 1.0860 to 1.08 is reasonable. Nothing has actually changed economical. But political we has a spike on the health care failure fr Trump. He is loosing face for now and market is nervous about he's ability to make the Tax cuts come true. So I go for a short here. It should be possible to lock in BE atleast at support. It is early and no confirmation for the short but 1.08 is the support.
Taking out 50% now at 1.08 and leave SL at the highs. ( 1.0920 ) So BE is locked in.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #149,028
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:22pm Mar 28, 2017 1:22pm
this one.
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don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #149,029
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:24pm Mar 28, 2017 1:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} that 0816 mark to me is important.. probably even more so with the month roll. anyway it may be a supportive area now..
this one. month/week close Friday
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #149,030
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:27pm Mar 28, 2017 1:27pm
Quoting priceaction1
closed both eur/usd short and usd/jpy long trades +85 and +50 pips done for the next monthly target.
Closed 1 position to manage the account balance rest will run until nice buy zone ..
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,031
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:28pm Mar 28, 2017 1:28pm
gap is filed, now can we test 1.0970 area before month close? I am side line with short bias on eur/usd.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #149,032
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:31pm Mar 28, 2017 1:31pm
Quoting sisse
What about now taking longs 1.084x -> 1.980x ? or should we sevenfold the bet and this time take shorts instead 1.086x -> 1.080x [check]? ... has anything changed or not really?
Quoting sisse
...So one more time no longs and this time taking shorts.... ok lets see. We'll discuss later

@Earleone Very well done. 1.080x cleared....getting an entry on the way up or the way down...i think is clear at least in theory ...

...so just for the sake of the argument we keep going for a bit longer. Now for the 8th time:

Now that we got a pullback to 1.080x, should we aim to load shorts lets say 1.085x -> 1.073x? or double up and trade 1.08x -> 1.093x?

@goosebone We are we rolling for the Q close?

A. 1.083x
B. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but above the 1.09x handle
C. 1.076x
D. Impossible to pinpoint exactly but below the 1.06x handle
E. No fck clue.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #149,033
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:32pm Mar 28, 2017 1:32pm
Quoting goosebone
Anyone got a quarterly eu chart to post? Or a link to where I can see one? My platform won't do it or I don't know how to change settings to make it work. Guess I could get the crayons out.
This is the quarters with their mids. If you have Metatrader, the indicator that does this is here:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...43#post9716643
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  • #149,034
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:34pm Mar 28, 2017 1:34pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} @Earleone Very well done. 1.080x cleared....getting an entry on the way up or the way down...i think is clear at least in theory ... ...so just for the sake of the argument we keep going for a bit longer. Now for the 8th time: Now that we got a pullback to 1.080x, should we aim to load shorts lets say 1.085x -> 1.073x? or double up and trade 1.08x -> 1.093x? @goosebone We are we rolling for the Q close? A. 1.083x B. Impossible to...
I will go with "B"
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #149,035
  • Edited 1:46pm Mar 28, 2017 1:35pm | Edited 1:46pm
Quoting chester123
Im trying to identify some pure PA signal for ST swing down (MT extension). Here is a try. However, still Im not sure how to perfectly use the sisses technical analysis he provided us some time ago. Any comments appreciated. P.S.: @Phram0r as you also looking for the same to take the start of the swing rather than the extension up. You think this is the signal? Or better to wait for some news flow to jump in with momentum? {image} here is my history - see the chart - I was stopped out so lookinf to load more 4 postions for another 4 profits on ST....
This is the signal, the risk/stop is the new extension high

I've taken the live trade, as for the expirment, the live trade was lower than the initial early bird...but close enough to still make the hypothesis valid (that you can reduce risk)

We've (with sisse) dissected the trade down exactly....extension, to rejection. Just like the iterations we went through last time where sisse broke it down candle to candle....bearish outlook, trade the extension failure. This is a picture perfect signal.....the highs were extended, but failed to close the old range....now we have an extension with an engulfing rejection.

Final GDP needs to be cleared for Thursday....so unless it's a horrible undershoot, I think the high is set.
  • #149,036
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:36pm Mar 28, 2017 1:36pm
D or 1.063x
Re-Incarnated
  • #149,037
  • Edited 2:07pm Mar 28, 2017 1:38pm | Edited 2:07pm
I would say .083x.

I am biased Short. But, as Earlone has been looking at Shorts like me. I'm not taking any for now until I see a .097x or until this week closes the books as we have lots of US data still and though it is good we still have this strong retrace.

What I think you are trying to point out sisse (may be wrong) is the trees from the forest. 5 times Earlone went against this short term swing up/retrace and still is looking for a short because it has to work this time. But, does it? I think it's the forest from the trees issue. Or maybe I am lost in the damn woods again. Wouldnt surprise me.
  • #149,038
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:38pm Mar 28, 2017 1:38pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} @Earleone Very well done. 1.080x cleared....getting an entry on the way up or the way down...i think is clear at least in theory ... ...so just for the sake of the argument we keep going for a bit longer. Now for the 8th time: Now that we got a pullback to 1.080x, should we aim to load shorts lets say 1.085x -> 1.073x? or double up and trade 1.08x -> 1.093x? ... sisse
Thank you,

For the sake of the argument again I will choose shorts 1.085x -> 1.073x
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #149,039
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:42pm Mar 28, 2017 1:42pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} sorry for the length {image}
AGREED 100%
  • #149,040
  • Mar 28, 2017 1:43pm Mar 28, 2017 1:43pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} This is the signal, the risk/stop is the new extension high I've taken the live trade, as for the expirment, the live trade was lower than the initial...but close enough to still make the hypothesis valid (that you can reduce risk) We've (with sisse) dissected the trade down exactly....extension, to rejection. Just like the iterations we went through last time where sisse broke it down candle to candle....bearish outlook, trade the extension failure.
great we on the same page again. but have you taken the trade?

yesterday D1 close was neutral, today may be the signal but we have not closed yet even though seems unlikely for the bulls to fight it back on the closing range.

but in any case: I have not loded for those ST positions as I thought its wise to wait for the close (= clear confirmation of a failed break on extreme). even though one may think its looking too late we still in cheap seats! it seems late only when one is too close to the market.
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