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  • #148,961
  • Mar 27, 2017 4:34am Mar 27, 2017 4:34am
Quoting gatorinla
highest week close since 1.03xx.. dog pissing on tree theory has 1.1087 in sight. that would be a break of 1.0829. it either will or will not. that break would have many looking for 1.13xx.. so on that break,, 1.13xx may be a target.... but the better entry may be a retrace before, at 1.058x/ till near 1.03xx low.. w/o breaking said low. 1.1087 is not necessarily a bullish place. it may be a bearish place, b4 a new LL.. but it may be better short after 1.13xx {image}
week since opened with a gap higher. the month is days from closing. i suspect closing it above 1.0816 on the higher leg is not bearish..if one subtracts about 25 pips from it on a close may also be not bearish, but it may be less bullish than above 1.0816.. the next month bar hurdle may be 1.115, its near 25 pis above 1.1087. so it may be a decent R area.. or even minamal norm before a new drop.. that norm area could be 600 pips wide. a good rule of caution is to b.e. and take whats given..

if one is playing off a week.. that R at 1116 may be a good area to watch. because the week may want .058x before an atempt at 1.13xx. 1.13 rise would not affect the months 1.1116/1.1714 norm before drop setup. it would just look like chop..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,962
  • Mar 27, 2017 6:40am Mar 27, 2017 6:40am
I had to look at the cod data. Herd is net long now . Maybe I just look for reason to stay in .
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,963
  • Mar 27, 2017 7:01am Mar 27, 2017 7:01am
A relatively calm European session.

--> EZ keep printing very strong numbers and a positive trend in macro numbers is starting to form. US political flop on Friday weighting heavier across Equities where more and more investors are starting to realise that the honeymoon is over and the collage of nationalist and populist campaign promises are going to have a hard time to translate in actual reality.

--> Eyes on NY, expecting a very strong counteraction talk from Trump and Co in the upcoming sessions from the political front via taxes and more carrots for the big C's.

--> Given his track record and now that we have a clearer measure on how to gauge Trump political noise, we are officially entering in 'tweet mode trading' from the US side till further macro data after the Quarterly close.

On the Euro, a soft session after the opining range sitting @1.087x as expected for NY. Important updates coming in the Euro* that has nothing in play for the rest of the Q while all eyes Dollar in the next few days as discussed we have setting the low of the year in play with the Q.

sisse

Quoting Earleone
{quote} I need to save some bullets now. I guess we will get the gap closed and it will test again up against the 1.0870 . So for now I will not add. Will prefer to see a close below 1.078x on daily before adding as it looks now. ( If I was flat i would have been taking the short directly )
Quoting sisse
{quote} Ok so now on the 5th chance in a row you stay sideline fine ... no shorts no longs for you....no worries about being right or wrong for now ...so for the sake of the argument lets ask this time @chester123 to take the other side and take a long 1.082x -> 1.090x? We'll discuss later. sisse
@Earleone

1.087x cleared. Now we have 4 of the 5th last bet cleared so I ask you again right before NY. For the 6th time in row:

Now that we have finally cleared 1.087x should you short on the rejection of 1.087x ? or shall we add and sixfold up the bet from 1.087xx to 1.093x?

Quoting Pharm0r
I'll take the short for the sake of the argument
For the sake of the argument let me ask you something from a different angle. Why don't we instead of trying to pinpoint a short at the highs on the way up, can you using your own TA levels tell us what would be the level (according to your charts and TA) do you think/guess in which a break/close down in the future will give you a good place to short on the way down ....

Doesn't matter if its exact or not. It can be 1 tick down from the current highs or 500 ticks down. Point is to pinpoint/explore 2 different scenarios, one a blind entry (the one you just called) and another which will be a 'lagging' entry....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,964
  • Mar 27, 2017 7:08am Mar 27, 2017 7:08am
Quoting sisse
Q. sisse {quote} {quote} @Earleone 1.087x cleared. Now we have 4 of the 5th last bet cleared so I ask you again right before NY. For the 6th time in row: Now that we have finally cleared 1.087x should you short on the rejection of 1.087x ? or shall we add and sixfold up the bet from 1.087xx to 1.093x? {quote} For the sake of the argument let me ask you something from a different angle. Why don't we instead of trying to pinpoint a short at the highs on the way up can you using your own TA levels...
I currently will need to see a close below the 1.0830 on 4H or higher to consider adding short. If we get a close above 1.0870 on the roll today I will consider going flat until I see some clear down movement.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,965
  • Mar 27, 2017 7:14am Mar 27, 2017 7:14am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I currently will need to see a close below the 1.0830 on 4H or higher to consider adding short. If we get a close above 1.0870 on the roll today I will consider going flat until I see some clear down movement.
One more time no longs for you ...we'll discuss later but just a quick note of the last chances to go long since the FED that we have discussed live. Just to check back in your charts if something trigger ('dont get too close to the market to chart fit these calls...): @1.063x, @1.071x, @ 1.071x, @1.076x, @1,079x, @1.087x....

Obviously you missed the train up thats not the point ...the idea is for you to check how it was/is unfolding from a price based perspective ....

I hope it helps...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,966
  • Mar 27, 2017 7:40am Mar 27, 2017 7:40am
Quoting sisse
{quote} One more time no longs for you ...we'll discuss later but just a quick note of the last chances to go long since the FED that we have discussed live. Just to check back in your charts if something trigger ('dont get too close to the market to chart fit these calls...): @1.063x, @1.071x, @ 1.071x, @1.076x, @1,079x, @1.087x.... Obviously you missed the train up thats not the point ...the idea is for you to check how it was/is unfolding from a price based perspective .... I hope it helps... sisse

Yes I see this levels quite clear now ( Looking weekly charts that I add as a overlay to daily here attached ) . But to buy in a short term sell outlook did not seem like a good alternative to me. ( It had been the right choice ) In Neutral FA outlook short term I would possible have done. TA and FA has not lined up after that . I am waiting now for that to happen . Perhaps a kneejerk to the upside.
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  • #148,967
  • Mar 27, 2017 8:05am Mar 27, 2017 8:05am
Quoting sisse
A relatively calm European session. -->For the sake of the argument let me ask you something from a different angle. Why don't we instead of trying to pinpoint a short at the highs on the way up, can you using your own TA levels tell us what would be the level (according to your charts and TA) do you think/guess in which a break/close down in the future will give you a good place to short on the way down .... Doesn't matter if its exact or not. It can be 1 tick down from the current highs or 500 ticks down. Point is to pinpoint/explore 2 different...
Chester and I have already decided to catch it on the way down

But- you actually bring to light a small experiment I am doing myself. A blind early bird entry vs a lagged entry. It seems to me= that the entries will actually be the same or close....but that the blind entry will experience draw down while the lagger wont. This of course would mean the early bird entry has not only the draw down risk, but added risk if wrong, where as the lagger entry would only carry the risk of being wrong.

That being said- I'd prefer to see this high extended [check] and rejected [in play]. If that is the case- then my hypothesis would be correct, the lagger entry would be the same as the early bird. For me, a close below 1.0872 would be considered a rejection.
  • #148,968
  • Mar 27, 2017 8:15am Mar 27, 2017 8:15am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} It seems to me= that the entries will actually be the same or close....but that the blind entry will experience draw down while the lagger wont. This of course would mean the early bird entry has not only the draw down risk, but added risk if wrong, where as the lagger entry would only carry the risk of being wrong. ...
Ok ...only one tip to explore on that concept: Is their any difference in both options when you are fading a pullback/retrace and when you are fading an extension/continuation?

----o----



@goosebone to wrap up for good an older but more relevant than ever conversation. Where are we rolling today?

a. No fck clue
b. 1.093x
c. 1.087x
d. [your level]

sisse

@hoom to wrap up for good an older but more relevant than ever conversation. Do we have the high of the Q/M / W / Day already before NY?

a. Yes +/- 20 ticks rom the current highs (1.090x)
b. No, not all
c. No fck clue

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,969
  • Mar 27, 2017 8:17am Mar 27, 2017 8:17am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Chester and I have already decided to catch it on the way down But- you actually bring to light a small experiment I am doing myself. A blind early bird entry vs a lagged entry. It seems to me= that the entries will actually be the same or close....but that the blind entry will experience draw down while the lagger wont. This of course would mean the early bird entry has not only the draw down risk, but added risk if wrong, where as the lagger entry would only carry the risk of being wrong. That being said- I'd prefer to...
Absolutely agree with the middle section. I see it the very same way. One just must accept that the later entry comes with a proper stop/risk and must not be afraid of missing it. We´ll see. In any case this extension happening right now is pretty strong
  • #148,970
  • Mar 27, 2017 8:17am Mar 27, 2017 8:17am
What with all the rumours from ECB lately , last I checked when this kind of headlines starts popping up then something real is coming so it wont shock the

markets ! well it's a theory also with the flop in the US from Trump inability to keep his promises, with that being in play some large hands sought it comings

miles away !! when facts starts being checked then we shall see reversal of current flows ...

I scaled in short 1X @1.0901 , in the middle of nowhere at the moment but for the sake of the levels in play is a good value for now.

will add on the way down if it allows in the first place .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,971
  • Mar 27, 2017 8:20am Mar 27, 2017 8:20am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Ok ...only one tip to explore on that concept: Is their any difference in both options when you are fading a pullback/retrace and when you are fading an extension/continuation? ----o---- @goosebone to wrap up for good an older but more relevant than ever conversation. Where are we rolling today? a. No fck clue b. 1.093x c. 1.087x d. [your level] sisse @hoom to wrap up for good an older but more relevant than ever conversation. Do we have the...
I am going with a.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,972
  • Mar 27, 2017 8:25am Mar 27, 2017 8:25am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Ok ...only one tip to explore on that concept: Is their any difference in both options when you are fading a pullback/retrace and when you are fading an extension/continuation? ----o---- @goosebone to wrap up for good an older but more relevant than ever conversation. Where are we rolling today? a. No fck clue b. 1.093x c. 1.087x d. [your level] sisse @hoom to wrap up for good an older but more relevant than ever conversation. Do we have the...
So I go for B,B.

On the question: I think there is not! Only on the timeframe I guess.... because in this case we are fadeing a ST extension from a ST range and also fading a MT pullback/retrace.
  • #148,973
  • Mar 27, 2017 8:34am Mar 27, 2017 8:34am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Ok ...only one tip to explore on that concept: Is their any difference in both options when you are fading a pullback/retrace and when you are fading an extension/continuation? ----o---- @goosebone to wrap up for good an older but more relevant than ever conversation. Where are we rolling today? a. No fck clue b. 1.093x c. 1.087x d. [your level] sisse @hoom to wrap up for good an older but more relevant than ever conversation. Do we have the...
d. 1.088x but you can round that to c. if no dick rule warrants. Point is over previous 1.087 high but not to 1.093x (yet)
  • #148,974
  • Mar 27, 2017 8:36am Mar 27, 2017 8:36am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Ok ...only one tip to explore on that concept: Is their any difference in both options when you are fading a pullback/retrace and when you are fading an extension/continuation? ----o---- @goosebone to wrap up for good an older but more relevant than ever conversation. Where are we rolling today? a. No fck clue b. 1.093x c. 1.087x d. [your level] sisse @hoom to wrap up for good an older but more relevant than ever conversation. Do we have the...
Not aimed at me, but my choices would be C, then A.
  • #148,975
  • Mar 27, 2017 8:39am Mar 27, 2017 8:39am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Ok ...only one tip to explore on that concept: Is their any difference in both options when you are fading a pullback/retrace and when you are fading an extension/continuation? ----o---- @goosebone to wrap up for good an older but more relevant than ever conversation. Where are we rolling today? a. No fck clue b. 1.093x c. 1.087x d. [your level] sisse @hoom to wrap up for good an older but more relevant than ever conversation. Do we have the...
My thoughts on the difference would be a better stop. Lagger entry gives you the last extension high as the stop- whereas an early bird stop would either be open, or a "best guess" and thus more likely to be wrong.

Quoting chester123
{quote} Absolutely agree with the middle section. I see it the very same way. One just must accept that the later entry comes with a proper stop/risk and must not be afraid of missing it. Well see. In any case this extension happening right now is pretty strong
You and I seem to be on the same page lately...
  • #148,976
  • Mar 27, 2017 8:53am Mar 27, 2017 8:53am
Makes sense to look at the monthly chart in this area. 1.087x up to 1.098x is a price range littered with monthly rejections back to April 2015. (I believe theres a 4 letter f word to describe levels like that) Seems likely to me price gets a bit deeper into that range before rejecting it if that rejection is coming. Month close is short out now but still time to print a longer wick up into that zone. 940? 970? Don't know. But I won't guess. I'll try to find the lagging entry on the daily like others here are planning. Close under 825 would look good for that. 870 on the week. But that's not what I'm thinking. Gut feeling maybe. Tough part is deciding which gut feelings are caused by intuition and which are caused by last night's intake of 23 year Cuban sugar cane.
  • #148,977
  • Mar 27, 2017 9:30am Mar 27, 2017 9:30am
a gap and a full extenstion is enough for all soft and some large hands to get spanked ...that in my books is one trigger .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,978
  • Mar 27, 2017 9:45am Mar 27, 2017 9:45am
Quoting hoom
a gap and a full extenstion is enough for all soft and some large hands to get spanked ...that in my books is one trigger .
What's a full extension? More than a tick over the high? How do you decide when it's full? Is it a retrace back under 870 in this case?
  • #148,979
  • Mar 27, 2017 9:56am Mar 27, 2017 9:56am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} What's a full extension? More than a tick over the high? How do you decide when it's full? Is it a retrace back under 870 in this case?
a full extension is the break of the last swing high/low in this case 1.087x - 1.033x , the immediate level of interest after 1.087x is 1.098x . the usual pattern in

overshoots is 40/60 pips for exemple that's what I call full extension in the case of euro move.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,980
  • Mar 27, 2017 10:03am Mar 27, 2017 10:03am
Quoting hoom
{quote} a full extension is the break of the last swing high/low in this case 1.087x - 1.033x , the immediate level of interest after 1.087x is 1.098x . the usual pattern in overshoots is 40/60 pips for exemple that's what I call full extension in the case of euro move.
as we know a break is when a close above 1.087x happens , the bigger the timeframe the better ...so what makes me or anyone believe that this move would be just

a wick on [D]/W/M/Q , we have defined outlook , FA is not inline with the move or at least to some extent and TA we have bunch of lines , triggers etc... so wouldn't

a break invalidate all of it . My 2 cents that's how you anticipate that a move is an extension or not.
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