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  • #148,941
  • Mar 26, 2017 1:10pm Mar 26, 2017 1:10pm
EURUSD gap up at the opening. Currently 1.0840
  • #148,942
  • Mar 26, 2017 1:26pm Mar 26, 2017 1:26pm
Quoting suntan
EURUSD gap up at the opening. Currently 1.0840
sisse saw it coming. Wish I did. would have closed up shop Friday.
  • #148,943
  • Mar 26, 2017 2:07pm Mar 26, 2017 2:07pm
Quoting sisse
Yawn..... Uneventful show as expected. ...And we are rolling in a irrelevant close in the Euro. Expecting a weekend gap for the open [check]... Good weekend all. sisse
1.083x and highs tested in the open as widely anticipate ....expecting more than a few questions from some on this one....

Quoting sisse
{quote} @Earleone is going to walk us though the roll today anything useful so far in this conversation (i know we failed by a couple of ticks to clear 1.083x)? What you make for today close ....and for the 4th time I ask you the same. Would you short now on the close after the failure to take the highs? or shall we add and fourfold up from 1.079x to 1.087x? ... sisse
@Earleone 1.083x cleared ... For the 5th time in a week: Now that we have finally tested highs should you short on the rejection of highs ? or shall we add and fivefold up the bet from 1.082xx to 1.093x?

We'll discuss later...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,944
  • Mar 26, 2017 2:12pm Mar 26, 2017 2:12pm
well, if I were earleone I would short on the rejection of course. just needs to wait for the signal of failed break. adding longs is suicide on upper extreme of ST range in FA ST sell.

also may be different as Im waiting to add to the ST swing. you guys seem more like playing the flow up

P.S.: sorry earleone for spoiler may be all wrong of course
  • #148,945
  • Mar 26, 2017 2:19pm Mar 26, 2017 2:19pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} 1.083x and highs tested in the open as widely anticipate ....expecting more than a few questions from some on this one.... {quote} @Earleone 1.083x cleared ... For the 5th time in a week: Now that we have finally tested highs should you short on the rejection of highs ? or shall we add and fivefold up the bet from 1.082xx to 1.093x? We'll discuss later... sisse
I need to save some bullets now. I guess we will get the gap closed and it will test again up against the 1.0870 . So for now I will not add. Will prefer to see a close below 1.078x on daily before adding as it looks now.

( If I was flat i would have been taking the short directly )
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,946
  • Mar 26, 2017 2:32pm Mar 26, 2017 2:32pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I need to save some bullets now. I guess we will get the gap closed and it will test again up against the 1.0870 . So for now I will not add. Will prefer to see a close below 1.078x on daily before adding as it looks now. ( If I was flat i would have been taking the short directly )
Ok so now on the 5th chance in a row you stay sideline fine ... no shorts no longs for you....no worries about being right or wrong for now ...so for the sake of the argument lets ask this time @chester123 to take the other side and take a long 1.082x -> 1.090x?

We'll discuss later.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,947
  • Mar 26, 2017 2:39pm Mar 26, 2017 2:39pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Ok so now on the 5th chance in a row you stay sideline fine ... no shorts no longs for you....no worries about being right or wrong for now ...so for the sake of the argument lets ask this time @chester123 to take the other side and take a long 1.082x -> 1.090x? We'll discuss later. sisse
Ok, lets says im long. There may still be some arguments like continuation of friday flow for a deep extension of the ST range or something. Do not think would go for this flow in real

For now good night from Prague
  • #148,948
  • Mar 26, 2017 2:46pm Mar 26, 2017 2:46pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Oh yes the era when everyone can sink anyone into pile of shit just with throwing some quick accusations. This is more like conspirancy theory of conspirancy theorizm, looking at Russian roulette shots on low information basis. Not that i care about this administration at all...but eh. Talks to Russian - works for Putin Being nervois about investigation - works for Putin Piece in Syria - works for Putin. If there ever was a perfect equation for pattern overfitting i just found one. Writting it on drawing table asap. There is significant...
nothing is quick from me, so w/o going further. lets see how it plays. its a best seller, from the orgies, money laundering and esponiage. the real conspiracy comes dirctly from his mouth. the art of changing history that i personally witnesed. When some news outlets who totally ignore what they know not to be true. Sure it has conpiracy written on it. just maybe not the one u assert too. I do expect to be the odd man out. People like me. who dont follow crowds, are usually the first loaded in the boxcar.
history will write itself. some people have to stand up and make sure its written correctly. his view or politics has nothing to do with the fake news he asserts as truth.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,949
  • Mar 26, 2017 2:59pm Mar 26, 2017 2:59pm
Quoting chester123
{quote}For now good night from Prague
In the top 3 most beautiful places I've had the good fortune to visit. Dobrou noc.
  • #148,950
  • Mar 26, 2017 3:02pm Mar 26, 2017 3:02pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Ok, lets says im long. There may still be some arguments like continuation of friday flow for a deep extension of the ST range or something. Do not think would go for this flow in real For now good night from Prague
With this conversation I am forcing (for the first time in ever I think in the thread) to track to the micro detail 'the trees' of this leg not necessarily to make him take live positions in each one but trying to highlight how close some of the posters (not only earlone but some others) are to the market that are unable to pinpoint clearly the actual trade entry they are planning neither grasp how a normal flow unfolds live from a strictly price action point of view ...

I am not saying or aiming for anything new that we have already discussed in detail many times before in the TA discussions about basic price analysis.

The only difference is that I am asking him (him or anyone interested on their own) to make decision live on spot when it's happening instead of me posting nice ex-post chart when all is already unfolded with all the TA and etc annotations perfectly clear...

...In any case, so @chester123 'chickened out' in longs and decide to stay out and not take the other side ...so let the market talk before we continue...let's see how it goes.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,951
  • Edited 3:32pm Mar 26, 2017 3:17pm | Edited 3:32pm
Hi sisse, here I'm for buying. A gap through resistance is a buy signal in classical ta, so here we can make a good RR trade.

Buy 1.083
SL 1.080
Target 1.090x

Thank you for your posts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #148,952
  • Mar 26, 2017 3:53pm Mar 26, 2017 3:53pm
I'll take the short for the sake of the argument
  • #148,953
  • Mar 26, 2017 4:27pm Mar 26, 2017 4:27pm
We are supposed to load in calm waters and we are just breaking out with a W gap, so my opinion is no shorts. I would have picked sideline like chester, I've missed the train to the upside, let's accept it and let the pig exhaust itself now.
  • #148,954
  • Mar 26, 2017 4:34pm Mar 26, 2017 4:34pm
Quoting Replicant
We are supposed to load in calm waters and we are just breaking out with a W gap, so my opinion is no shorts. I would have picked sideline like chester, I've missed the train to the upside, let's accept it and let the pig exhaust itself now.
Yup. My little canary died in the mine. I'm sitting on my hands to see this week play with 870(+).
  • #148,955
  • Mar 26, 2017 6:50pm Mar 26, 2017 6:50pm
Yes, I am also going long here, Live with stops some 60 pips below, more than i normally like...

The reason is the gap up and more important is the short term bullish price action.
  • #148,956
  • Mar 26, 2017 11:54pm Mar 26, 2017 11:54pm
Quoting sisse
...and I will take that in the Euro. Clearing first target from the FED hikes flow on the test 1.079x. Only extension left open without much expectations and forced micromanaging from NY onwards....
...and I will take that in the Euro clearing final target crumbs below 1.087x for the european opening. Very well done all from 1.063x on the FED and some from even the 1.05xx handle. Here flat as pancake in the Euro for the second time this year.

More importantly Euro entering in 'Choose your poison time' for the mid term and short term. Putting Euro back in the centre of the workspace after a rather bumpy and choppy start of the year. Actively looking for positions ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,957
  • Mar 27, 2017 12:23am Mar 27, 2017 12:23am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and I will take that in the Euro clearing final target crumbs below 1.087x for the european opening. Very well done all from 1.063x on the FED and some from even the 1.05xx handle. Here flat as pancake in the Euro for the second time this year. More importantly Euro entering in 'Choose your poison time' for the mid term and short term. Putting Euro back in the centre of the workspace after a rather bumpy and choppy start of the year. Actively looking for positions .... sisse
Should fail rejection at this level i see not big hurdels till mid term flip.

Personally planning to add some positions and glad i didn't took new ones past week.

Have one position open from past highs (stops paid), missed the long. Overall far from perfection but still a good position management lesson learning in progress!
  • #148,958
  • Mar 27, 2017 12:52am Mar 27, 2017 12:52am
Relative divergence in spreads with Europe starting to put treasuries/dollar on the front foot after the buy the fact move/tightening: 0.50/0.60 is capped on benchmark bunds while 2.2/2.3 is supported on treasuries.

DXY and Fiber moving into S/R. DXY at 98.5 is the level to track in my book as the week progresses. Overshooting where we are on the pair, perhaps on bad news/prints, making a bull trap above 1.0867 looks like a no-brainer entry.

Oil in the midst of a long-term bottoming, chopping around 48, but supply wars might make things really messy; but not break 43.5 messy. I believe there will be a strong economic upturn in the US, mainly from tax reform and deregulation, but also an upturn in Europe that will keep prices buoyed aside from the strictly technical rejection at post-recession support. Support is only threatened by major political/economic risk or intense battles from producers flooding the market.
  • #148,959
  • Mar 27, 2017 1:12am Mar 27, 2017 1:12am
we have 1.087x touched, so far no action
  • #148,960
  • Mar 27, 2017 1:22am Mar 27, 2017 1:22am
Quoting EVolta
we have 1.087x touched, so far no action
That is the worrying part...
More likely a choppy zone, either further north or a sudden surge south.
I agree with ClinicalEx on his view that this might be a bull trap level.

Although fundamental side, its still EUR weak and USD strong, but this movement...
Its so.... beyond understanding...
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