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  • #148,921
  • Mar 25, 2017 6:06am Mar 25, 2017 6:06am
not sure how it will affect usd. We may be getting some new leadership in the u.s. in the next yearish or less. all roads lead to Rome, i mean Russia & Cypress. if they follow the money. many in the cabinet may get the grand prize of free room and board and all the sex they desire. Putin is busy killing witnesses and Trump didn't mention wall this week.

Things must be getting close. this congressman gives a wierd conference,,, listen closely.. he said "he briefed the speaker this morning" at 00:50/00:51. in the later talks this mention of Paul Ryan is omitted. many contradictions in this one conference. just listen investigating Russia or not.. nothing but nervous contradiction. granted this guy was involved in a congressional investigation. then ran to trump in person to disclose info.
Inserted Video


add the paragraph above to the current statement, Nunes has changed his story now. Its out there for people who want to know. Fox is not a good source if you want to see it unfiltered. the new statement contradicts this video. one should use their own judgment. this congressman was on trump's transition team

the show is on the ground. if you look out the window. many out there are trying to board up the window including Fox News. Take a peek, a nor'easter is a brewing


trump transition team ordered to preserve electronic communications. the leak is they are scrubbing phones after the order.

too much to mention in a post.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,922
  • Edited 8:19am Mar 25, 2017 7:48am | Edited 8:19am
Quoting gatorinla
highest week close since 1.03xx.. dog pissing on tree theory has 1.1087 in sight. that would be a break of 1.0829. it either will or will not. that break would have many looking for 1.13xx.. so on that break,, 1.13xx may be a target.... but the better entry may be a retrace before, at 1.058x/ till near 1.03xx low.. w/o breaking said low. 1.1087 is not necessarily a bullish place. it may be a bearish place, b4 a new LL.. but it may be better short after 1.13xx {image}
what about short @1.0970 area on monthly base, It look like a magnet for a sharp spike up to that level after 1.0870 area.
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don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #148,923
  • Edited 9:14am Mar 25, 2017 7:56am | Edited 9:14am
Failure of healthcare bill is not just about perceived weakness in the White House when it comes to upcoming efforts in passing tax reform. Budget needs to be revenue neutral to fend off deficit spending arguments from both sides. No Trump care means another $1 trillion to work into that equation. They'll need to draw up new cuts in spending or new tax revenue into that budget to reconcile the trillion that Trump care doesnt take care of now. So the failure on this one raised the bar on the big one that markets are watching. Dominos. Not that it can't or won't be done. Just that it will now be a rockier road than anticipated by the White House and by markets not only due to nebulous sentiment and opinion factors but because of the new math.
  • #148,924
  • Mar 25, 2017 9:38am Mar 25, 2017 9:38am
Quoting priceaction1
{quote} what about short @1.0970 area on monthly base, It look like a magnet for a sharp spike up to that level after 1.0870 area. {image}
i wish i could say with 100% certainty.. if we could, neither of us would be posting here. i have 1.1087 but i could be wrong totally. getting to 1.0970 still is above 1.0829. it makes 1.1087 more likely if 1.0829 would give.. and if/or when it does.. pa has a path to 1.13xx, but between the 1.0829 break and 1.13xx, i would suspect once more to 1.058x but above 1.03ss current low. b4 the actual move to 1.3xx.. bearish wise.. 1.1087 is enough to cause a drop on the weekly up to the high at 1.17.. month wise.. 1.2xxx is still missed. so i do think 1.1087 is a minimal rise.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,925
  • Mar 25, 2017 2:49pm Mar 25, 2017 2:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
not sure how it will affect usd. We may be getting some new leadership in the u.s. in the next yearish or less. all roads lead to Rome, i mean Russia & Cypress. if they follow the money. many in the cabinet may get the grand prize of free room and board and all the sex they desire. Putin is busy killing witnesses and Trump didn't mention wall this week. Things must be getting close. this congressman gives a wierd conference,,, listen closely.. he said "he briefed the speaker this morning" at 00:50/00:51. in the later talks this mention of Paul Ryan...
Oh yes the era when everyone can sink anyone into pile of shit just with throwing some quick accusations. This is more like conspirancy theory of conspirancy theorizm, looking at Russian roulette shots on low information basis. Not that i care about this administration at all...but eh.
Talks to Russian - works for Putin
Being nervois about investigation - works for Putin
Piece in Syria - works for Putin.
If there ever was a perfect equation for pattern overfitting i just found one. Writting it on drawing table asap. There is significant difference between having factual grounding to something that masses dont see, and doing pattern overfitting. Trump would aprove such overfitting with his muslim ban order.
  • #148,926
  • Mar 25, 2017 4:08pm Mar 25, 2017 4:08pm
Deciding it's a for real tip of the iceberg situation and any minute axe will fall, or deciding it's all conspiracy crap and nothing but partisan bluster, are both impatient and loaded angles from which to approach it. Indicates a desired outcome either side. In good time we will all have enough to base an opinion or even take action on. Even after the chips fall, the furthest extremes of those who had a desired outcome will insist they got it (both sides) even if staring at a mountain of evidence to the contrary.
I'm fine waiting til those chips fall where they may.
2017 has been my own personal Year of Wrong (that one's not on the Chinese calendar so don't bother looking it up on your placemat). And I'm really starting to find it cathartic. To be so damn wrong you stop guessing what's going to happen altogether is about as 'be here now' zen style as I ever got anyway.
I can highly recommend it. Try wrong, really big time wrong, and set yourself free.
  • #148,927
  • Mar 25, 2017 7:12pm Mar 25, 2017 7:12pm
what about sh this soon
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  • #148,928
  • Edited 6:39am Mar 26, 2017 5:54am | Edited 6:39am
Quoting goosebone
2017 has been my own personal Year of Wrong (that one's not on the Chinese calendar so don't bother looking it up on your placemat). And I'm really starting to find it cathartic. To be so damn wrong you stop guessing what's going to happen altogether is about as 'be here now' zen style as I ever got anyway. I can highly recommend it. Try wrong, really big time wrong, and set yourself free.
I was reading the Gourmet trader PDF again this weekend make more and more sense the more times I go over it. IMO been difficult weeks. Weekly candles has formed strong red candles during the weeks ( except last week ) before turning again spiking up ending with green weekly. Has made it easy ( for me ) to get socked in bearish currently countertrend with the sell outlook. Four green nice candles looking weekly .

Post a daily chart with weekly candles overlay that maybe more clear show what I has been seeing ( and also what I has not been seeing)

Also I will advice to take a look at the monthly candle that is forming. It is very interesting looking the range there now and will be very interesting to see the close that will be the same as for the weekly this coming week.

We are in the area of less probabilities.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,929
  • Mar 26, 2017 6:33am Mar 26, 2017 6:33am
Reading some articles and try to understand Fundamental background over the week end. What you guys think about this statement.

"All in all, Barclays now forecasts EURUSD to depreciate to 1.06 by Q3 17, reaching a bottom in Q4 17 at 1.03, and rebounding to 1.05 by Q1 18."
80% effort, 20% luck
  • #148,930
  • Mar 26, 2017 6:51am Mar 26, 2017 6:51am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I was reading the Gourmet trader PDF again this weekend make more and more sense the more times I go over it. IMO been difficult weeks. Weekly candles has formed strong red candles during the weeks ( except last week ) before turning again spiking up ending with green weekly. Has made it easy ( for me ) to get socked in bearish currently countertrend with the sell outlook. Four green nice candles looking weekly . Post a daily chart with weekly candles overlay that maybe more clear show what I has been seeing ( and also what I has...
i suppose the problem of that is the lag of that line..., the move could already be 200 pips in before it changes... then sensibly you would have to wait for a pullback that fits your entry to get in...but what if that pullback doesn't come... imo its better to use something that does not lag, for example fibs, i enter on levels once new high/low... i can try 4/5 times with 10-20 pip stops... i only need one to work and catch the top/bottom and im good for a decent runner of probably higher than 200... (yes most will say you get burned picking tops and bottoms, most do, but once mastered its very useful (thanks Pharm0r ))

of course all trading preference, hope i haven't interrupted any discussion in here, but i pop my head in regularly to see what is going on...
  • #148,931
  • Mar 26, 2017 6:56am Mar 26, 2017 6:56am
Quoting Don96
{quote} i suppose the problem of that is the lag of that line..., the move could already be 200 pips in before it changes... then sensibly you would have to wait for a pullback that fits your entry to get in...but what if that pullback doesn't come... imo its better to use something that does not lag, for example fibs, i enter on levels once new high/low... i can try 4/5 times with 10-20 pip stops... i only need one to work and catch the top/bottom and im good for a decent runner of probably higher than 200... (yes most will say you get burned picking...
Whatever fib, MA, magic line , indicator, you name it tried for shorts would have failed this far to establish a good short position ( I dont think about scalping or scalp entry's ) during the 4 last weeks.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,932
  • Mar 26, 2017 7:02am Mar 26, 2017 7:02am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Whatever fib, MA, magic line , indicator you name it tried for shorts would have failed this far to establish a good short position ( I dont think about scalping ) during the 4 last weeks.
depends on your TP and SL i guess.. i have had successful shorts. but what about if you got in long on each pullback also... you dont have to only short the market, and long at the double bottom for instance (i got in a little higher as that was the level my fib entry showed)

but yes i see your point, more long opportunities than short, i just feel for me, it is best to get in on the upper 20 pip zone of a 200 pip move than the upper 100 pips after i have waited for confirmation if that makes sense...
  • #148,933
  • Mar 26, 2017 7:10am Mar 26, 2017 7:10am
Quoting Don96
{quote} depends on your TP and SL i guess.. i have had successful shorts. but what about if you got in long on each pullback also... you dont have to only short the market, and long at the double bottom for instance (i got in a little higher as that was the level my fib entry showed) but yes i see your point, more long opportunities than short, i just feel for me, it is best to get in on the upper 20 pip zone of a 200 pip move than the upper 100 pips after i have waited for confirmation if that makes sense...
For intraday trading , yes. But we are trading the long term not scalping / daytrading. And it is just not possible to establish a short position that is not a scalp when price goes up . If trying enough it will however be correct at some point when the trend turns. If you had been only scalping long during this period I think you would have gaining more pips then scalping short.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,934
  • Edited 7:45am Mar 26, 2017 7:15am | Edited 7:45am
Quoting KOS-fx
Reading some articles and try to understand Fundamental background over the week end. What you guys think about this statement. "All in all, Barclays now forecasts EURUSD to depreciate to 1.06 by Q3 17, reaching a bottom in Q4 17 at 1.03, and rebounding to 1.05 by Q1 18."
I think they are wrong to depreciate to 1.06 by Q3 17?? Thats almost no move til end of Q3 or what?

I think the base line scenarion is one more ST down/MT extension to around 1,017 via recent FA ST/MT status which was in length discussed by sisse few pages back. I expect it to be super fast once it starts.

In late Q2/Q3 we will most likely to move to MT neutral on E/U to build MT bottom and Q4 onwards will be MT buy on EU - so the Y1 cadle can partly be a hammer. Of course, hard to say now its possible to see just a few steps forward. Hard to predict Q4 and onwards with this political uncertainty all around.

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On ST we in choose your posion but still no signal. I still have those ST positions from previous 2 visits of choose your posion area with stops above extreme and 3 profits taken. Its pain this ST range but will load again if we get a PA sell signal.

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As far as PA signal the W1 closed in resistance area so the extension is still wide open. I think next week is gonna decide because:

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So Friday may have been early hint of weakness. Well watch the D1 closes in next days - we either get signal of bulls capitulating without the extension or we should make the extension to 1,087 on intra-week and that should form just an extensio of the resistance zone and close down as a falling star on W1 close.

Have a great weekend everyone
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  • #148,935
  • Mar 26, 2017 7:19am Mar 26, 2017 7:19am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} For intraday trading , yes. But we are trading the long term not scalping / daytrading. And it is just not possible to establish a short position that is not a scalp when price goes up . If trying enough it will however be correct at some point when the trend turns. If you had been only scalping long during this period I think you would have gaining more pips then scalping short.
i see, i consider a scalp taking profit intra day for no more than 10 pips... however i am talking about the pullbacks on the swing highs and lows... there was only this week just gone where for me, there was not a significant pullback, but there was also not a significant rise.. i expect price to drop from here and i was short late friday but closed out for the weekend.

i see the maps played here are very large swings in which case yes most people here i suppose wont trade pullbacks

*each pullback is 100 pips, the whole move is 330 pips, there are 3 pullbacks in 4 weeks = money to be made overall yes you are right, more to be made long this past month
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  • #148,936
  • Edited 2:33pm Mar 26, 2017 7:31am | Edited 2:33pm
If eu is in the neighborhood then, a stop at 1.061 around June 13/14 wouldn't surprise too much.

But I'm looking at the levels much like Chester has it there. I have a small short entry based on no break of 830 (no swing high here) and if stopped will try a larger one after seeing reaction to 870. I might not share the 1.017 target but I share the general path and timing of it.

Edit: that'll get stopped on the open if not right after.
  • #148,937
  • Mar 26, 2017 2:17pm Mar 26, 2017 2:17pm
Just fyi guys...

If history repeats itself, expect a move towards 1.0890ish before a move to sub-parity. Seems like a likely scenario if Le Pen wins the French elections, not sure geopolitical risk alone will send us to sub parity.
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  • #148,938
  • Mar 26, 2017 2:34pm Mar 26, 2017 2:34pm
Quoting kins98
Just fyi guys... If history repeats itself, expect a move towards 1.0890ish before a move to sub-parity. Seems like a likely scenario if Le Pen wins the French elections, not sure geopolitical risk alone will send us to sub parity. {image}
that S-H-S is most likely just a TA trap for soft retail of course not being paranoid and saying someone set it but why not to use the momentum of latecoming longers we will see
  • #148,939
  • Mar 26, 2017 2:51pm Mar 26, 2017 2:51pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} that S-H-S is most likely just a TA trap for soft retail of course not being paranoid and saying someone set it but why not to use the momentum of latecoming longers we will see
yep I agree - quite like the idea of longs until 1.085+ (there's good support at 1.087x) and then flipping short from there as a) a tech play and b) a risk-pricing play in case of a Len Pen victory .. Intra-EU yield spreads show that virtually no risk premium is priced into fixed income for a Le Pen victory so if the unlikely does happen and the persistent theme of populism pops up in France, you are playing the correct trade, esp from a risk:reward perspective
  • #148,940
  • Mar 26, 2017 3:03pm Mar 26, 2017 3:03pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I was reading the Gourmet trader PDF again this weekend make more and more sense the more times I go over it. IMO been difficult weeks. Weekly candles has formed strong red candles during the weeks ( except last week ) before turning again spiking up ending with green weekly. Has made it easy ( for me ) to get socked in bearish currently countertrend with the sell outlook. Four green nice candles looking weekly . Post a daily chart with weekly candles overlay that maybe more clear show what I has been seeing ( and also what I has...
I like that view thru the overlay. Like forest over trees. Good visualization.
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