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Pivot Trading

  • #8,141
  • Mar 24, 2017 9:08am Mar 24, 2017 9:08am
Quoting Davit
The real reason I focus so much on trading psychology because it effects everything.Your self image effects the outcome of trade and how you manage the trade and how you deal with adversary.Psycho cybernetics deals with self image.Every successful person has a positive self image and this is critical.Trading is self discovery.Your demons inside creep up when you least expect.When trade goes bad you remember your wife or friend telling you " you are wasting time trading because nobody makes money on it" and you start getting discouraged and to prove...
I agree, i find it easier to have a winning trade with a demo account than with a live account where real money is involve and emotions gets in the way of a possible good trade.
If you do not risk it, you cant make it, you cant risk nothing for somethin
  • #8,142
  • Mar 24, 2017 10:27am Mar 24, 2017 10:27am
Quoting AgaJo
{quote} I agree, i find it easier to have a winning trade with a demo account than with a live account where real money is involve and emotions gets in the way of a possible good trade.
Agreed, but this is why we drop lot sizes down until you stop thinking it, then gradually increase over time
  • #8,143
  • Mar 24, 2017 11:30am Mar 24, 2017 11:30am
Quoting Davit
Here is the dilemma about trends. Just when does one consider previous trend broken and you are in new trend? EA for example.Are we in new uptrend? or correction from Bear trend. In my opinion its a new uptrend....but this is a tricky fine line to define It is said they institutional traders define trend based on 200 MA above uptrend below downtrend.Based on this its still bear trend below 4370 MA however to me this is rather extreme conservative view price hit 3620 and since then climbed over 500pips !! do you see the issue?
My 2c. Trend depends upon tf. I see bull as series of HH's & HL's, while bear as series of LL's & LH's. (HH = higher H; HL = higher L; LL = lower L, LH = lower H)

So on EA:
- D/W it's still bear as there's 1.4722ish H to be broken first.
- hourlies: seems like an uptrend since 22.2. yet we are still bellow 1.43 (1.2. H) & generally bumping into previous range providing resistance (better seen on daily). Breaking that & making it support would be bullish..but failing there is bull trap..

and h1 (and lower) seems overextended up. Might be just my impression..but anyway don't to 1.387 there's still room for HL, thus plenty of support should the bulls need some rest. Unless EA breaks that low with style.

My current view.. Might change, market is the boss here.

Actually thanks for that, it made my zoom out them charts & look into it from both perspectives! Doh! "shoulda know this!"
Markets wispers, just tune in.
  • #8,144
  • Mar 24, 2017 11:46am Mar 24, 2017 11:46am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Since you here I like to answer your observations In simply terms my focus is on swings. Yes things can get out of hand and that's why everyone should have cut out point when you say-"Its not working" and I am out. This is basic and I insist people define their SL whatever it suits them. Some pairs my SL is 500pips and some just 200pips and all has to do my position size...
Fair enough, my post wasn't an attack on a method nor was it an attack against you. You seem to have it sorted out enough. It was just a friendly reminder to those less experienced who seemed to forget (or didn't know) market is the boss & can do whatever, howerever "unlikely" it is.. & rather expected UC (and other pairs) to turn.."just because" Davit's system says there's higher chance of it.. Or rather they interpreted it that way.. And so they felt like adding shorts while market rallied higher without showing any real weakness. (at that time)

Maybe I should mind my own business.
Markets wispers, just tune in.
  • #8,145
  • Mar 24, 2017 11:49am Mar 24, 2017 11:49am
Managing my trade EURCAD a bit in minus.
My older me would already close it on R38 or minor loss/break even if R38 missed.

But I do now practice patience here. PA + TDI suggesting reversal now.
Sell limits placed in case it is retested within a next hour or so. If it drops already now, I would cancel them...

Anything can happen, if does shoot higher above R100 ? I will be ready to watch PA after...
Then well R161 is my stop-loss and I am ready to accept the loss. What really helps me here is my updated pipsometer. The max. loss would be 1250 pips.

Hmm before I wrote this post the picture has changed and I took it after. Seems no way orders to be filled now, but that's fine.

My other trades are a bit "boring to manage" as all of them are in green...
Thanks Davit I feel I'm getting better with each every new trade. Still building confidence so I can trade an account with true money...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #8,146
  • Mar 24, 2017 12:29pm Mar 24, 2017 12:29pm
Quoting plukin
{quote} Fair enough, my post wasn't an attack on a method nor was it an attack against you. You seem to have it sorted out enough. It was just a friendly reminder to those less experienced who seemed to forget (or didn't know) market is the boss & can do whatever, howerever "unlikely" it is.. & rather expected UC (and other pairs) to turn.."just because" Davit's system says there's higher chance of it.. Or rather they interpreted it that way.. And so they felt like adding shorts while market rallied higher without showing any real weakness. (at...
I did not perceive it as an attack.You brought out observations which I agree and answered.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,147
  • Mar 24, 2017 12:34pm Mar 24, 2017 12:34pm
Quoting voty
Managing my trade EURCAD a bit in minus. My older me would already close it on R38 or minor loss/break even if R38 missed. But I do now practice patience here. PA + TDI suggesting reversal now. Sell limits placed in case it is retested within a next hour or so. If it drops already now, I would cancel them... Anything can happen, if does shoot higher above R100 ? I will be ready to watch PA after... Then well R161 is my stop-loss and I am ready to accept the loss. What really helps me here is my updated pipsometer. The max. loss would be 1250 pips....
Hi Voty
When I trade I try not taking positions which might become in conflict.
Example I am long on EA and I won't short EC why? Because both are commodity pairs and have high correlations.In fact this is kind of hedging.
I don't know what you got going but throwing this out there in case you missed it.
Warm regards Continue sharpening your trading.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,148
  • Mar 24, 2017 1:05pm Mar 24, 2017 1:05pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Voty When I trade I try not taking positions which might become in conflict. Example I am long on EA and I won't short EC why? Because both are commodity pairs and have high correlations.In fact this is kind of hedging. I don't know what you got going but throwing this out there in case you missed it. Warm regards Continue sharpening your trading.
Hi Davit, I understand what you mean. But what I found to work best for me is to not think about fundamentals or news too much.
The more I think, the worse my predictions seems to be. Like priced in already before the news, only red numbers and pair in rally 500+ pips etc...

The more simply I look on the trades the better I seem to have decisions and success.
As most of my trades are on daily/H4, I don't even care about the news. Those are another distractions which work against me.
Except NFP, Trump for president or Brexit types of news, those I don't take lightly, sometimes...

This is why I do love your system really much. Simple rules with no messy indicators.
buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #8,149
  • Mar 24, 2017 2:35pm Mar 24, 2017 2:35pm
Banking some profits as floating over +2000 pips all together.

Took +300 on Gold two orders, +200 running. That thing really tried my nerves, three times rejection around 1249 / R78 - and my original target.
Now seems breaking through right when I closed ? I thought that was patience to wait three times...
As I am usually bad in taking profits, there is one order left with target 1279. Not really realistic when looking on pivots, but on weekly picture not unreal.

AUD/CAD taking +160, leaving one order running for 200 atm.

AUD/USD taking half +500, leaving five orders for +500.

EUR/GBP closed +150.

GBP/JPY +225 now, getting ready to close it before week end.

USD/CAD -128 now.

AUD/NZD +135 now, not touching yet.

EUR/CAD -300 now, no action for now.
buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #8,150
  • Mar 24, 2017 3:07pm Mar 24, 2017 3:07pm
EUR/USD short opened. In the zone and PA on R61.
Plus again two sell limit orders with 2 pips difference (just for me to know I have two). One was filled, the other not, oh my god.
This is the magic of pivots and my special skill to mess up with the orders.

Normally I would place much more here as this might be a new swing starting. But I don't really like to short here. The reason is the "annoying white box".
The box is coming from weekly. If this "zone" gets broken to the upside, no way I want to be short. Even if the trade goes my way, I will not add any more positions.
I would rather sit and wait for PA around 1.06-1.065 and go long from there and just wait for $$$ if 1.08 breaks and EU will shoot higher...

edit: just grammar mistakes.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #8,151
  • Mar 24, 2017 3:24pm Mar 24, 2017 3:24pm
Ok, that was it for the week. I'm a bit tired as I never had 8 positions watching at a same time. But in a good way. I really do have passion for trading but hard to find enough time.
It's just this week I could watch constantly the screen with no distractions, even I'm full time working So I took it as every opportunity the life gives...

Happy weekend and green pips to all!
buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #8,152
  • Mar 24, 2017 3:55pm Mar 24, 2017 3:55pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} that's lot of lines
Yes it was!, was up 900 pips at one stage, but got taken out for about 200 while I was asleep. Still a profit though, so I'm not upset. Closed all my remaining trades this morning for another 1k pips. Totaling about 1300 this week, not to shabby for the month seeing I was away for most of it.
  • #8,153
  • Mar 24, 2017 4:11pm Mar 24, 2017 4:11pm
Good weekend to all.
  • #8,154
  • Mar 26, 2017 1:02pm Mar 26, 2017 1:02pm
Last week results. Still have open trades some on manageable DD.

These trades were the trades I did not pay attention to fundamentals and went completely off of pivots.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Invest in Life
  • #8,155
  • Mar 27, 2017 1:48am Mar 27, 2017 1:48am
Late entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,156
  • Mar 27, 2017 2:43am Mar 27, 2017 2:43am
Good Morning guys
Week starting with a nice bang on my direction. EA still going up AC AN going down.
UJ going down...
EA hitting 61R at 4339 would be sweet. There is some strength returning on the Euro.Interesting week
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,157
  • Mar 27, 2017 2:45am Mar 27, 2017 2:45am
Quoting RisingSun
Late entry. {image}
Nice to have a Trader from Japan.welcome
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,158
  • Edited 3:14am Mar 27, 2017 2:50am | Edited 3:14am
Looks like Health care failure is setting a negative sentiment on USD cross the field specially on the Yen. This could be just the beginning of the turbulent Trump presidency.
Feds most likely will scale back their aggressive hasty expansionism.

We may see weakness on AUD with Tropical Cyclone Debbie approaching.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,159
  • Mar 27, 2017 2:59am Mar 27, 2017 2:59am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Nice to have a Trader from Japan.welcome
Thank you Davit.
  • #8,160
  • Mar 27, 2017 4:32am Mar 27, 2017 4:32am
Wednesday is a big day for UK. Brexit and article 50. Until wednesday we can find short opportunities from the GBP's weekly resistences i guess.
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