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AUD/USD

  • #101,081
  • Mar 20, 2017 8:34pm Mar 20, 2017 8:34pm
RBA has to talk down housing market before they can drop interest rates. If they don't the East Coast bubble will get worse.
  • #101,082
  • Mar 20, 2017 8:39pm Mar 20, 2017 8:39pm
I'm going to close my trade for now and observe.
  • #101,083
  • Mar 20, 2017 8:54pm Mar 20, 2017 8:54pm
Very true gents.

Also note that weak employment is a massieve problem and also the price of Iron Ore is sometihng to monitor.

Iron Ore
Change: -0.57% (-3.7pts) during the current or most recent trading day
  • #101,084
  • Mar 20, 2017 9:13pm Mar 20, 2017 9:13pm
Quoting jpcashflow
Very true gents. Also note that weak employment is a massieve problem and also the price of Iron Ore is sometihng to monitor. Iron Ore Change: -0.57% (-3.7pts) during the current or most recent trading day

Steel Prices Stable Amid Optimism Over China’s Property Sector
By
Leia Toovey
-
March 20, 2017 - 15:23 GMT
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Chinese steel prices may have edged down on Monday, but the commodity remains supported near recent highs due to investors’ bullish expectations on growth in China’s property sector.
Concerns that China’s moves to cool its red-hot property sector would dent steel demand have been a bit of a dark cloud hanging over the market in recent months, but these concerns were abated last week after China reported a surge in property sales in the first two months of the year. The surge in sales also suggested that China’s policies are becoming ineffective at cooling property prices and that growth may continue despite the government’s attempts to rein it in.
Meanwhile, China is pointing out that the fight against excess steel capacity should be undertaken globally, and that China should not bear all of the burden. “China should not be singled out in a fight against excess steel capacity that requires stronger global cooperation”, Wang Shouwen, a vice commerce minister, said on Saturday according to Reuters. China has recognized the seriousness of overcapacity problems in some industries and has been trying to deal with the issue, while some other countries have been “just talking and watching”, Wang added.
China has pledged to cut steel overcapacity by 50 million metric tons this year, on top of the 65 million tons cut in 2016. However; Greenpeace has pointed out that most of the cuts in 2016 were from already idled plants. China’s steel exports took a big hit in 2016 as countries implemented protectionist measures. China has denied that it unfairly boosts its domestic steel producers.
On Monday, the most-active rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 0.2% to reach 3,581 yuan ($519) a ton. Last Wednesday, it reached a three-year high of 3,692 yuan.
Attached Image
  • #101,085
  • Mar 20, 2017 11:02pm Mar 20, 2017 11:02pm
https://www.screencast.com/t/HKVt1nJvRt the daily triangle is still valid so expect it to test the bottom n break the low before it turn up
STAY HUNGRY STAY FOOLISH
  • #101,086
  • Mar 21, 2017 1:34am Mar 21, 2017 1:34am
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} so far it's defying gravity the 3rd touch don't mean much 7740 will be tested and if broken a new big push higher will follow next. iron ore and gold in bull mode it don't help much the trip north is still intact imo.
That;s okay, banked 30 pips. Will keep an eye on it though
  • #101,087
  • Mar 21, 2017 3:32am Mar 21, 2017 3:32am
Non Commercial position is at high water level and is positively related with AUDUSD.
When managed money and leveraged fund shift to other currencies, Aussie Dollar may drop.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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craftsman
  • #101,088
  • Mar 21, 2017 4:54am Mar 21, 2017 4:54am
Quoting craftsman44
Non Commercial position is at high water level and is positively related with AUDUSD. When managed money and leveraged fund shift to other currencies, Aussie Dollar may drop. {image} craftsman
Where you get those charts mate?
  • #101,089
  • Mar 21, 2017 5:40am Mar 21, 2017 5:40am
Quoting redalert
{quote} Where you get those charts mate?
It's charted by Reuters Eikon terminal, data source from CFTC.

CFTC compile and publish these data every Friday, can be downloaded from their website.
Instrument Code-232741

Weekly: http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmesof.htm
Historical: http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/Co...ssed/index.htm


craftsman
  • #101,090
  • Mar 21, 2017 10:33am Mar 21, 2017 10:33am
Got another 30 off the TL
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  • #101,091
  • Mar 21, 2017 12:37pm Mar 21, 2017 12:37pm
İT is getting good for a SHORT sell..TARGET 0.75XX
  • #101,092
  • Mar 21, 2017 12:57pm Mar 21, 2017 12:57pm
AUDUSD is more likely to go up. All TF trends show powerfull UPTREND. First target could be 1.8000.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Think like an investor, Act as a speculator. Ferid H.
  • #101,093
  • Mar 21, 2017 9:05pm Mar 21, 2017 9:05pm
Quoting Noors
Been waiting for this 3rd touch for a while now... lets see how it goes. I want to see a decent drop {image}
90pip drop is a fair decent one, got 60 out of it in total
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  • #101,094
  • Mar 22, 2017 8:22pm Mar 22, 2017 8:22pm
RBA ASIC and APRA are now getting their hands dirty about this housing bubble in Sydney and Melbourne.

Of course they cant put interest rates up because the other remaining cities are suffering.

They cant put rates down because of the housing boom.

They now are trying to restrict property investment.

It all spells of a disaster in the making and when govt bodies intervene it will certainly end in tears as bandaid repairs never work.
The seriousness of this isnt jawboning we have heard for so long but now they have a taskforce to implement these measures.

26 consecutive years of growth (I have doubts about ABS stats) maybe a political scoring point but in reality people haven't experienced the bad times hence they seem to think the good times never end. Thats one reason why property prices and infact the cost of living is so high in Australia.

When it does it happens suddenly.

Former PM Keating once this is recession we had to have .
Be prepared for a similar speech.
  • #101,095
  • Mar 22, 2017 11:41pm Mar 22, 2017 11:41pm
Quoting lasty
RBA ASIC and APRA are now getting their hands dirty about this housing bubble in Sydney and Melbourne. Of course they cant put interest rates up because the other remaining cities are suffering. They cant put rates down because of the housing boom. They now are trying to restrict property investment. It all spells of a disaster in the making and when govt bodies intervene it will certainly end in tears as bandaid repairs never work. The seriousness of this isnt jawboning we have heard for so long but now they have a taskforce to implement these...
interesting commentary.
looking for a spot to short the aussie
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #101,096
  • Mar 23, 2017 1:20am Mar 23, 2017 1:20am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} interesting commentary. looking for a spot to short the aussie
Short anytime, set SL at 0.776.

It has hit 0.774 twelve times since Jan 2016 and hasnt broken. If that doesnt tell you something nothing will. Just watch iron ore, +$100/ton and this will make the aud break the 0.774 resistance.
  • #101,097
  • Mar 23, 2017 2:01am Mar 23, 2017 2:01am
C level held well. Collected some from there. Watching the 7653 area. If we break below that we could be seeing 7590
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  • #101,098
  • Mar 23, 2017 2:38am Mar 23, 2017 2:38am
Quoting Noors
C level held well. Collected some from there. Watching the 7653 area. If we break below that we could be seeing 7590 {image}
https://www.screencast.com/t/o3tCQp1rZ lookslike breaking out of consolidation 747 is what i wait now
STAY HUNGRY STAY FOOLISH
  • #101,099
  • Mar 23, 2017 3:30am Mar 23, 2017 3:30am
Quoting redalert
{quote} Short anytime, set SL at 0.776. It has hit 0.774 twelve times since Jan 2016 and hasnt broken. If that doesnt tell you something nothing will. Just watch iron ore, +$100/ton and this will make the aud break the 0.774 resistance.
I am short on AUD by going long on GBPAUD. If that makes sense.
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #101,100
  • Mar 23, 2017 2:44pm Mar 23, 2017 2:44pm
watching 76xx for a bounce
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 27 KB
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