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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #27,141
  • Mar 21, 2017 10:15pm Mar 21, 2017 10:15pm
I have a noob question.

Do you guys consider the cost of trading (spread & commission) especially when trading intraday?

For instance, you will not take the trade if the main swing is too small compare to your spread and commission.

if the main swing is 30pips, my average profit pips is only around 7-10pips. With spread of 1.5pips, that's 15-20% of cost. Do you guys see this as an issue?
  • #27,142
  • Mar 22, 2017 2:09am Mar 22, 2017 2:09am
Quoting lithium1
I have a noob question. Do you guys consider the cost of trading (spread & commission) especially when trading intraday? For instance, you will not take the trade if the main swing is too small compare to your spread and commission. if the main swing is 30pips, my average profit pips is only around 7-10pips. With spread of 1.5pips, that's 15-20% of cost. Do you guys see this as an issue?
If your average profit is 7-10 pips imho you have to consider to found lower spread and commission broker, or may be try to trade major pair only with lower spread/com.
As i'm trading m1-m5 i will not trade for more than 1pip all include for this average pips profit.
There is no way to happiness , happiness is the way.
  • #27,143
  • Mar 22, 2017 2:39am Mar 22, 2017 2:39am
I think so too. 1pip spread, only ECN brokers then.
  • #27,144
  • Mar 22, 2017 2:49am Mar 22, 2017 2:49am
Quoting lithium1
I think so too. 1pip spread, only ECN brokers then.
yes and no ! there is a well know MM in London regulate with 0.5 to 1 on majors all include for example but of course lot of ECN regulate as well
There is no way to happiness , happiness is the way.
  • #27,145
  • Mar 22, 2017 3:09am Mar 22, 2017 3:09am
EU m5 may be a risky trade even with tight SL, expectation is still a NSH, will move quickly to be if i have this opportunity !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.JPG Size: 270 KB
There is no way to happiness , happiness is the way.
  • #27,146
  • Mar 22, 2017 3:28am Mar 22, 2017 3:28am
Quoting lithium1
I have a noob question. Do you guys consider the cost of trading (spread & commission) especially when trading intraday? For instance, you will not take the trade if the main swing is too small compare to your spread and commission. if the main swing is 30pips, my average profit pips is only around 7-10pips. With spread of 1.5pips, that's 15-20% of cost. Do you guys see this as an issue?
I did consider it when I was trading spot fx and it was one of the reasons I switched to futures. I didn't mind the 1 or 2 pip spread but I hated when that spread widened and I got taken out at BE+2 and then see PA hit my TP.

Quoting lithium1
I think so too. 1pip spread, only ECN brokers then.
My broker was also a "ECN" broker and the spread was pretty wild at times so I wouldn't trust that a spot fx broker is a true ECN no matter what they say or how well regulated they are.

I don't want to push people to quit spot fx or to switch to futures but IMO the only downside to futures is the bigger capital (and margin) requirements but for that price you get no spread and no price fluctuations between different brokers because the price is the same for everyone.
  • #27,147
  • Mar 22, 2017 4:07am Mar 22, 2017 4:07am
Thanks for the feedback guys. I guess the best way is to trade higher time frame or bigger swing. And lower timeframe only when volatility is high.
  • #27,148
  • Mar 22, 2017 4:32am Mar 22, 2017 4:32am
Quoting Maule
{quote} EJ 4Hr Trade. Update#3 Short term Order Flow in line with long term Order Flow. Price now up +21 pips in my favor. {image}
EJ 4Hr Trade. Update#4
SL hit for -142 pips
Lesson Learned. When the area of interest is approached with strength, don't enter.
the 61.8% was approached with bearish strength. But the greed in me took over and I entered Long anyway.
Still learning. Next Trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Play the hand you were dealt.
  • #27,149
  • Mar 22, 2017 4:48am Mar 22, 2017 4:48am
Quoting Maule
{quote} USDCAD 4Hr Trade. Update#1 Price just moving sideways at entry point. Up coming news in 2 hours. "Core Retail Sales". The Major Players are on the sidelines till that comes out I guess... I'm off to the day job. Stops in Place. Letting it run. {image}
USDCAD 4Hr Trade. Update#2
Price Corrcting deeper. Adjusted TP to the 127%.
will look for another entry at better price and RR.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-03-22 (4).png Size: 84 KB
Play the hand you were dealt.
  • #27,150
  • Mar 22, 2017 4:52am Mar 22, 2017 4:52am
Quoting Maule
{quote} GN 4Hr Trade. Update#4 1st Trade up +58pips. 2nd Trade up +150 pips. Not moving SL to BE. Lets see what happens. {image}
GN 4Hr Trade. Update#5
Price getting closer to targets.
Still not adjusting SL. (breathe price, breathe)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-03-22 (5).png Size: 87 KB
Play the hand you were dealt.
  • #27,151
  • Mar 22, 2017 5:29am Mar 22, 2017 5:29am
UJ.. expectation met perfectly.. and also my trade..
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  • #27,152
  • Mar 22, 2017 5:50am Mar 22, 2017 5:50am
Quoting sdatta
UJ.. expectation met perfectly.. and also my trade.. {image}
Nicely done bro!
  • #27,153
  • Mar 22, 2017 6:48am Mar 22, 2017 6:48am
Quoting Maule
{quote} EJ 4Hr Trade. Update#4 SL hit for -142 pips Lesson Learned. When the area of interest is approached with strength, don't enter. the 61.8% was approached with bearish strength. But the greed in me took over and I entered Long anyway. Still learning. Next Trade. {image}
well, like i said in comment before, when market makes those 1/1 harmonic moves it's best to take account on those as market could go and test 61.8% of the total ABCD move. sorry for repeating this again. but, the trade was valid, so no hard feelings on that loss. just move on to the next trade.
  • #27,154
  • Mar 22, 2017 7:07am Mar 22, 2017 7:07am
Quoting crixus
{quote} This is a phenomenon you can see easily after the fact. Very difficult to exploit at the right edge of the chart. Remember that with any charting technique, theres a human tendency to look at the chart and only see cases where the rule holds. We ignore the multitude of cases where the rule doesnt hold. As a result, you might judge that those events are more frequent and possible than others. You give greater credence to this information and tend to overestimate the probability and likelihood of similar things happening in the future.
i wanted to answer to you yesterday but the web page wasn't loading and then i had to leave.

when it comes to harmonic moves, there is only one way to see them, which is after they complete, or as you put it - after the fact. But once they complete, then it is up to you what to do with that information. As i was saying yesterday, market was making harmonic moves to the upside, which in a bear market as we were, we should expect market to move south. here is my chart from yesterday again:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 06-17 (233 Tick) 2017_03_21_trade 21_03_2017.png Size: 149 KB


Knowing this, I still entered a long trade, trading the short term order flow (pink lines) as i saw good momentum at those pink swings. and market gave me more than 20 pips, but then suddenly came with intensive strength at took me out at BE. it just barely tested the supply zone and then headed south as expected. but i couldn't do anything of going short as i had to run home at that time....
  • #27,155
  • Mar 22, 2017 7:12am Mar 22, 2017 7:12am
here is how market behaved in my eyes:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 06-17 (233 Tick) 2017_03_21_chart 1.png Size: 104 KB


eventhough it was a major move which, to anyone not used to see this kind of information it might simply look like just a random move south, there is yet harmonic order there, again.
  • #27,156
  • Mar 22, 2017 7:20am Mar 22, 2017 7:20am
last night trade:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 06-17 (233 Tick) 2017_03_22_trade 2.png Size: 122 KB
  • #27,157
  • Mar 22, 2017 7:27am Mar 22, 2017 7:27am
before entering the market, everyone should ask himself a few questions:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 06-17 (233 Tick) 2017_03_22_analysis.png Size: 139 KB
  • #27,158
  • Mar 22, 2017 7:51am Mar 22, 2017 7:51am
ok, here is my trading plan for today (my battle field). since market made another harmonic moves ABCD to the downside, then I'd like to wait for market test that 61.8% of the moves as shown in the chart below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 06-17 (233 Tick) 2017_03_22_trade plan.png Size: 180 KB
  • #27,159
  • Mar 22, 2017 8:02am Mar 22, 2017 8:02am
Quoting Ockham
EU m5 may be a risky trade even with tight SL, expectation is still a NSH, will move quickly to be if i have this opportunity ! {image}
Hi Ockham. Just wondering, did you consider this trade risky due to the NSL on the short term order flow, or did you count this as a re-rest of the range? I was thinking a quick short against the long term order flow, but wasn't game enough to take anything.
  • #27,160
  • Mar 22, 2017 8:24am Mar 22, 2017 8:24am
Quoting ujku80
ok, here is my trading plan for today (my battle field). since market made another harmonic moves ABCD to the downside, then I'd like to wait for market test that 61.8% of the moves as shown in the chart below. {image}
Had the same levels on my chart and had the same intention to find a good rotation to the downside within the 61.8 and 78.6 retracement zone of the larger 1 to 1 pattern. However the risk will be too big for my account and therefore, will probably be just watching the action.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 06-17 (233 Tick) 2017_03_22 9.10pm.png Size: 95 KB
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