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The Really Useless Thread

  • #148,761
  • Mar 21, 2017 12:08pm Mar 21, 2017 12:08pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} Just for the sake of the exemple , we have discussed this before in this thread , positions management on a mid term swing ....it's 3 positions for exemple , TP1 100 pips TP2 200 pips TP3 300 pips all hit , so why aim for the full swing or nothing .
The full swing is lower in the 1.03xx for the mid term on my charts, tp1 was 1.04xx, tp2 was based of the break of the short term swing for momentum into the mid term swing etc etc - looking at weekly here

ST swing is 1.08-1.04

I do see what you're getting at- and again, I judged the outcome of FOMC incorrectly. It also look like I may have had a short term entry, and thought it was adequate for a mid term swing. For a while there all seemed to be going well
  • #148,762
  • Mar 21, 2017 12:09pm Mar 21, 2017 12:09pm
Quoting sisse
....and I will take that in GOLD for the European close. Clearing first main target with the test 1242.xx. Clean and simple ride so far. Well done all holding longs from 1200.xx and even below. @chester123 you saw the play from 1196.xx miles ahead of time ....you traded the micro leg for positioning and not the actual swing !!!... watch out your trading is not getting blurred because of new TA in 'research mode'... In any case, Europe going home with decent sessions across the board and with all...
yes yes, i know, i have to put that TA in sync with the ST/MT/LT maps and FA direction. working on it.
  • #148,763
  • Mar 21, 2017 12:10pm Mar 21, 2017 12:10pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I can reenter without the risk, essentially turned into a scratch trade, covered all costs involved plus a few bucks. Better than getting stopped out on a new high for a loss I didn't expect a 200 pip immediate rally on confirmed hike and bullish outlook for Dollar, with EU in shambles. Fuck me right?
Did better than me. Little bird told me to add in the middle at the 6 handle (little bird's name is dumbass). Would have been be for me too since tp1 was hit already without that greedy move. You took a swing and lost nothing. Now maybe you get the entry you want we'll see.

Eyeing 1.0796 for the close for micro level clue here. Daily close ought to be pretty bully since 765/38 looks a bit out of reach.
  • #148,764
  • Mar 21, 2017 12:13pm Mar 21, 2017 12:13pm
We'll if nothing else, I added a boat load of patience to my toolbox- for free
  • #148,765
  • Mar 21, 2017 12:18pm Mar 21, 2017 12:18pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} The full swing is lower in the 1.03xx for the mid term on my charts, tp1 was 1.04xx, tp2 was based of the break of the short term swing for momentum into the mid term swing etc etc - looking at weekly here ST swing is 1.08-1.04 I do see what you're getting at- and again, I judged the outcome of FOMC incorrectly. It also look like I may have had a short term entry, and thought it was adequate for a mid term swing. For a while there all seemed to be going well
Looking at chester's charts- it does seem that is the case. The time held is the loss here, not the pips. 300 pips has been my normal take on these swings, and kind of my "benchmark".

I still hold that 200 pip rally and not breaking the short term range after confirmed hikes is kind of lame.
  • #148,766
  • Mar 21, 2017 12:19pm Mar 21, 2017 12:19pm
Sisse and people

I would appreciate your thoughts about US Equity markets.
I have shorted NASDAQ today as it reached Yearly R1 and failed . The rally has been super extended and the index should finally begin to decent as it digests the Rate Hikes .(hopefully)
We had a very nice outside bearish engulfing candle on the daily.
It looks real possible for a nice healthy 10-15% correction of the uptrend that is long overdue (straight down until Yearly pivot! )

Anyone agree?

here is the chart:

and all my current positions : (Getting ready to close some of Euro I cant take it anymore ))) )

P.S This has been an amazing quarter for me but its all on paper.. I need to materialize the profits ..getting so hard to sit on them like this
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  • #148,767
  • Mar 21, 2017 12:28pm Mar 21, 2017 12:28pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} The full swing is lower in the 1.03xx for the mid term on my charts, tp1 was 1.04xx, tp2 was based of the break of the short term swing for momentum into the mid term swing etc etc - looking at weekly here ST swing is 1.08-1.04 I do see what you're getting at- and again, I judged the outcome of FOMC incorrectly
not only you , almost everyone and by that I mean even big speculators like major banks were betting on a break below 1.050x after 1.082x rejection .
but at least if one is to play it safe , I learned that first thing is to pay for my stops by doing partial profit whatever are my convictions of the swing in play and aiming for +400 pips as first target to book profits is certainly a miscalculation in terms of money management put aside TA and FA . no one can explain the exact reaction but one can manage his positions

For those who don't know what am talking about refer to this link
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...9&d=1480940586
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,768
  • Mar 21, 2017 12:31pm Mar 21, 2017 12:31pm
Quoting Bud Foxx
Sisse and people I would appreciate your thoughts about US Equity markets. I have shorted NASDAQ today as it reached Yearly R1 and failed . The rally has been super extended and the index should finally begin to decent as it digests the Rate Hikes .(hopefully) We had a very nice outside bearish engulfing candle on the daily. It looks real possible for a nice healthy 10-15% correction of the uptrend that is long overdue (straight down until Yearly pivot! ) Anyone agree? here is the chart: and all my current positions : (Getting ready to close some...
looking at 2378/till 2401 entry. nahh i will not play..i do expect 2309 or less after 2378/2401 as long as that high remains.. but not trading it.. it would make sense for s/p to drop according to yen..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,769
  • Mar 21, 2017 12:36pm Mar 21, 2017 12:36pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} not only you , almost everyone and by that I mean even big speculators like major banks were betting on a break below 1.050x after 1.082x rejection . but at least if one is to play it safe , I learned that first thing is to pay for my stops by doing partial profit whatever are my convictions of the swing in play and aiming for +400 pips as first target to book profits is certainly a miscalculation in terms of money management put aside TA and FA . no one can explain the exact reaction but one can manage his positions For those who don't...
i think its very hard to drop eu w/o a meaningful attempt at 1.1087 on the smaller weekly chart. once or if that new high above 0829 happens.. between 0829 and 1.13xx .. i anticipated drop may take it back to 1.05xx/.03xx w/o a new low, b4 it reaches for 1.13xx. or even 1.2470. usd 97.xx 96.xx or more is normal.. as is 1.1087 or 1.2.. making a new high 1.0829,, adds a target at 1.13.. with norm being at 1.1087. it should break 1.0829..
up, down, then up again..b4 down deep
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,770
  • Mar 21, 2017 12:44pm Mar 21, 2017 12:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i think its very hard to drop eu w/o a meaningful attempt at 1.1087 on the smaller weekly chart. once or if that new high above 0829 happens.. between 0829 and 1.13xx .. a anticipated drop may take it back to 1.05xx/.03xx w/o a new low, b4 it reaches for 1.13xx. or even 1.2470. usd 97.xx 96.xx or more is normal.. as is 1.1087 or 1.2
historically , it took EU +-143 monthly bars to crack 1.17x - 1.05x range to parity , now is +-113 bars and FA is against upside , I still have 1.097x as very big level between parity and your 1.2x target .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,771
  • Mar 21, 2017 1:53pm Mar 21, 2017 1:53pm
Quoting pips2504
..., the worst case scenarios for a messy divorce with the EU is priced in ...
Not by million miles. We changed Sterling to neutral back in December via inflation kicking in. Today we went over the BOE target triggering RMT.

Brexit is a gamble with a empty plan so far. Expecting no less than a -15% contraction in the economy with a 'soft brexit' and no less than a -30% correction in Equities with a hard brexit / isolated England.

Markets can't digest anything yet because nobody (including the government has announced anything neither the 2 years negotiations has even started..... Check bacposts on Brexit for the 3 stages forecasted before the vote:

Stage 1 shorter term till Art 50 mainly Sterling annihilation [check] ...
Stage 2 inflation kicking heavy with Real wages affecting the poorest.Art 50 until negotiations are clearer. Impact shifting from Sterling to Equities.
Stage 3 depending on the negotiations and how bad is the damage (leaving custom union and common market is caput) impact moving from Equities to the real economy...

We won't trade the impact until very late this year and I can bet you T. May might not even be PM by then. Plus for Stage 3, The UK disintegrating with Trump protectionism on top of Brexit could set us for a massacre in the UK for 2019/onwards....

Basically we are just trading the simple RMT that got in standby because of the vote. No more no less.

sisse

--------@-------


@pharm0r and @goosebone

I think you are showing publicly how good traders you are becoming. Instead of the usual dick swing 'I was only right' you sat on your trades with a solid plan.

As I always say, in my case i get more impress when a trader show discipline, patience and a consistent analysis rather than a quick 5minute winner., Thumbs up despite the result. You will get pay in the long run.

The only 'weak' thing i can read from your latest comments is that you need to improve in your position management skills (one of the hardest things in trading).

Machine gun approach is always bad but a static approach is also wrong. Swinging doesn't mean sit and forget. Markets are dynamic. My 2 cents, you may want o dig deeper in to position management ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,772
  • Mar 21, 2017 2:45pm Mar 21, 2017 2:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} example of instead of continuing long, on the little rise. it retreated the 50%. allowing a entry 0601 or less entry. then it continued long.. larger tf ...near 0828 a possible short, if one thinks the high would hold. i think its still aimed to 108x. but now on the day, it needs to break 0828.. and if not it will drop.. or even if it does break that high, a better long may be waiting after 0828 break on a retrace. toward 0340 low.. usually 1.0584/1.0340 is the place.. i left out shorting to 0584 for a reason. i don't know if or when it...
i am not advocating a short here at current levels.. but if one wanted to have a small Risk amount comparable to reward. it would be worth considering a short. because this is the place bulls need to overcome. its black or white.. either they do or dont. and it may take multiple tries. i am still long for 1087.. here is where i may regret not taking the money.. but my goal is larger and my risk is green now..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,773
  • Edited 3:01pm Mar 21, 2017 2:51pm | Edited 3:01pm
Just one guy's read. He sees break of 200 on the spread as a significant indicator for eu bulls.
Correlation charts like this are pretty maliable of course. Easy to use when you got facts or alternative facts you want to convey. Just thought it was an interesting view.



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  • #148,774
  • Mar 21, 2017 2:59pm Mar 21, 2017 2:59pm
JPY (XJPY) slipping on last extension bellow lows, longed 111.64 in case if clearout is in play, SL 600.
  • #148,775
  • Mar 21, 2017 3:02pm Mar 21, 2017 3:02pm
Quoting goosebone
Just one guy's read. He sees break of 200 on the spread as a significant indicator for eu bulls. {image}
EURCHF also for first time setting structural play for short term bottom with extension play, structurally atm i think we are up to get some further upside, probably all the way until election play.
  • #148,776
  • Mar 21, 2017 4:14pm Mar 21, 2017 4:14pm
Very good day for trading across most markets.

Highlight of the day from equities particularly US equities triggering a very decent profit taking. Trump, Brexit, Hikes, RMT, Russia all at the same time was too heavy to keep pushing on air, We finally set the high and low of the Quarter.

Expecting a plethora of nationalistic noise from talking heads and politicians from the US, UK and France in the upcoming days offering more details and less wishful thinking and blah blah in the economic front before we get some more fuel to continue.

On the FX board, Dollar closing below 100.xx and finally entering in key area. We are set for triggering 'choose your poison time' in Dollar as early as NY tomorrow ...until then ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,777
  • Mar 21, 2017 4:19pm Mar 21, 2017 4:19pm
Quoting sisse
Very good day for trading across most markets. Highlight of the day from equities particularly US equities triggering a very decent profit taking. Trump, Brexit, Hikes, RMT, Russia all at the same time was too heavy to keep pushing on air, We finally set the high and low of the Quarter. Expecting a plethora of nationalistic noise from talking heads and politicians from the US, UK and France in the upcoming days offering more details and less wishful thinking and blah blah in the economic front before we get some more fuel to continue. On the FX...
quick question , is the roll bullish , bearish or neutral in euro ? I say slightly bearish although the candle is screaming bullish , I know I seem confused !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,778
  • Mar 21, 2017 4:28pm Mar 21, 2017 4:28pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} quick question , is the roll bullish , bearish or neutral in euro ? I say slightly bearish although the candle is screaming bullish , I know I seem confused !
Irrelevant daily roll ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,779
  • Mar 21, 2017 4:35pm Mar 21, 2017 4:35pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} quick question , is the roll bullish , bearish or neutral in euro ? I say slightly bearish although the candle is screaming bullish , I know I seem confused !
Quoting sisse
{quote} Irrelevant daily roll ... sisse
Correct me if I'm wrong, for the ST map- if we extend the highs but dont close above the high set on 2/2 then bearish

If we close the high set on 2/2 bullish- with the high set on 12/8/16 next up to bat
  • #148,780
  • Mar 21, 2017 4:46pm Mar 21, 2017 4:46pm
Going by mofu rules, if we make a higher high, based on the path from 1.03403 to 1.08288 that will open up a trip back to 1.05854 and a target to 1.1320. 1.0859 is where that higher high would often be marked at...which is (of course) right below the upper mofu 1.08664.

Unfortunately that higher high would still be in the norm path I originally traded which shoots for 0.9894. So there's probably some wtf and some big question marks in my future if/when we make a higher high and go back to 1.0585. Being we are bearish outlook- I'll have to stick with 0.9894 until that changes.

The map should make sense for those that trade mofu (red bear, blue bull). In this case- one will have to invalidate the other.................
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