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  • #148,721
  • Mar 20, 2017 10:39am Mar 20, 2017 10:39am
sisse, actually on gold im not sure. I played the flow down but did not jump the gun on FED up. And Im not sure what ST outlook we have. I think you did not change it officially but pointed that gold is now gonna be in ST chop and mostly price driven by inflation and not rates. So that hints on neutral outlook, no?

Here are some screenshots. I agree we gonna set the Q1 swing low but from the price now I still think the downside in the ST range is open.

Or in other words TA is poining to setting a new swng high on M1 (see chart) and that would put us into the ST chop. So TA I think its pointing to ST chop.

Of course, FA prevails, but as I said not sure on that status.
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  • #148,722
  • Mar 20, 2017 11:52am Mar 20, 2017 11:52am
Looks like USD Bulls finally start to load up. Will follow the close today. close above friday closing on daily will be nice. even eyeballing to get up to or above the fib 38.2 last swing.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,723
  • Mar 20, 2017 12:44pm Mar 20, 2017 12:44pm
Quoting sisse
A rather negative weekend for the Global Economy from the G20. The world is advancing at the very fast pace to protectionism and destroying the core of the international trade structures. --> I am starting to get very negative in the mid and long term outlook in the global economy. US is playing with fire and it will get burnt [and badly]if it cross the line. UK looks set to jump into the abyss in this front, large emerging economies including China are on the brink to enter in full protectionism mode too in reaction, leaving the EU as last major...
B here, and tracking closely.
  • #148,724
  • Mar 20, 2017 2:15pm Mar 20, 2017 2:15pm
Quoting chester123
.... So TA I think its pointing to ST chop. Of course, FA prevails, but as I said not sure on that status. {image} {image} {image}
IMO, your ST range is way off mark. You are out of synch with that map.

@Earleone

IMO, your MT range is way off mark. You are out of synch with that map.


Quoting sisse
.... For the sake of the argument and just to show you something. I will take the exact opposite side of you right now. Long 1.071x targeting 1.079x and 1.087x. Stop below the last break in your tiny chart. We'll talk later and see if markets give us a nice live opp to discuss later... sisse
Quoting Earleone
Looks like USD Bulls finally start to load up. Will follow the close today. close above friday closing on daily will be nice. even eyeballing to get up to or above the fib 38.2 last swing. {image}
I am going to be a pain in the ass @Earleone... just for the sake of the last conversation....

I will double up and take the exact opposite side in the Euro right now. Long 1.071x targeting 1.083x with stop below the last break in your tiny chart...would you hesitate this time on the short side? or you will pull the trigger short on the roll?

We'll talk later and see if markets give us a nice live opp to discuss later

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,725
  • Edited 3:38pm Mar 20, 2017 3:02pm | Edited 3:38pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} IMO, your ST range is way off mark. You are out of synch with that map. @Earleone IMO, your MT range is way off mark. You are out of synch with that map. {quote} {quote} I am going to be a pain in the ass @Earleone... just for the sake of the last conversation.... I will double up and take the exact opposite side in the Euro right now. Long 1.071x targeting 1.083x with stop below the last break in your tiny chart...would you hesitate this time on the short side? or you will pull...

It is interesting. I see your 1.0710 level as strong in Euro now on intraday chart . But with the confluence in USDx and roll above 100.12 I add following short with 3 targets :

1.076X TP1 1.071x TP2 1.067X TP3 1.061X SL 1.08x
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,726
  • Mar 20, 2017 4:00pm Mar 20, 2017 4:00pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} It is interesting. I see your 1.0710 level as strong in Euro now on intraday chart . But with the confluence in USDx and roll above 100.12 I add following short with 3 targets : 1.076X TP1 1.071x TP2 1.067X TP3 1.061X SL 1.08x
+50 ticks target is way too small and too close to the market. In my books, close to untradable gambling / or scared money in most cases ...not what I want to highlight here.

Let me rephrase it. Which one will be touch first 1.071x or 1.076x?...or even better bullish, bearish or neutral close today?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,727
  • Mar 20, 2017 4:08pm Mar 20, 2017 4:08pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} +50 ticks target is way too small and too close to the market. In my books, close to untradable gambling / or scared money in most cases ...not what I want to highlight here. Let me rephrase it. Which one will be touch first 1.071x or 1.076x?...or even better bullish, bearish or neutral close today? sisse
I think 1.071x will be touched before 1.076x
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,728
  • Mar 20, 2017 4:08pm Mar 20, 2017 4:08pm
Ok, im gonna remake the gold charts.

In any case: on E/U today - still waiting for the test of the main resistance around 1.081x
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  • #148,729
  • Edited 6:56pm Mar 20, 2017 6:18pm | Edited 6:56pm
Quoting chester123
Ok, im gonna remake the gold charts. In any case: on E/U today - still waiting for the test of the main resistance around 1.081x {image} {image} {image}
Nice charts. I'll be waiting for that two tone blue 'extended resistance area' in the first one to watch for smaller tf levels (to be broken) like the ones you got in the last chart.
Nothing for me to act on here to there since i have a strict policy to pull one hair out every time my stops are hit and I'm almost bald.
  • #148,730
  • Mar 20, 2017 7:34pm Mar 20, 2017 7:34pm
Chester 123, Your post about Gold...No values are seen on last two graphs.

Sisse, any mid term outlook about usdmxn...Lastly You mentioned future is dark for emerging markets. I do not ask usdtry which is more unpredictable, also because of politics is very busy in figting mode..everyday a new event...referendum in april 2017 hard to see what it will cause.
A few sentences appriciated.
  • #148,731
  • Mar 21, 2017 3:18am Mar 21, 2017 3:18am
...and I will take that in the Euro. Clearing first target from the FED hikes flow on the test 1.079x. Only extension left open without much expectations and forced micromanaging from NY onwards.

Eyes on Sterling* with inflation overshooting above targets as it will trigger a major early alerts for RMT for the BOE right after Art 50 is announced...

sisse

Quoting sisse
For the sake of the argument and just to show you something. I will take the exact opposite side of you right now. Long 1.071x targeting 1.079x and 1.087x. Stop below the last break in your tiny chart. We'll talk later and see if markets give us a nice live opp to discuss later... sisse
Quoting sisse
{
I am going to be a pain in the ass @Earleone.....

I will double up and take the exact opposite side in the Euro right now. Long 1.071x targeting 1.083x with stop below the last break in your tiny chart...would you hesitate this time on the short side? or you will pull the trigger short on the roll?
@Earleone anything useful so far in this conversation?

How about right now...and for the 3er time I ask you the same. Would you short now on test 1.080x? or shall we add and triple up 1.080x to 1.093x?

We'll discuss later in detail but the point is to trigger the discussion live so its more useful ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,732
  • Mar 21, 2017 3:41am Mar 21, 2017 3:41am
Quoting sisse
...a... sisse {quote} {quote} @Earleone anything useful so far in this conversation? How about right now...and for the 3er time I ask you the same. Would you short now on test 1.080x? or shall we add and triple up 1.080x to 1.093x? We'll discuss later in detail but the point is to trigger the discussion live so its more useful .... sisse
Yes It is useful. I think that you changed to neutral short term in practice when the famous 1.0610 was taken out witch was the very good choice to do.
From my map we are two levels or handles above that now at the visit 1.08 level ( I had 1.079x and 1.067x ) and I will say that we are on extreme here at 1.08 + it gives a much better R:R so I will add here with stop above my last level that is the 1.087X level. Still I see that I take the trades going in the door not out so it is something I think about .
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,733
  • Mar 21, 2017 4:03am Mar 21, 2017 4:03am
Again you are going short. Ok fine. Lets see how it goes...we'll discuss later.

Quoting Earleone
...I think that you changed to neutral short term in practice when the famous 1.0610 was taken out witch was the very good choice to do. ... .
I haven't changed anything yet. We are both in same FA outlooks mid and short term and in the same range/map TAwise in both.

The only thing that was triggered it was the reverso play from the FED flow which is/was a A MAJOR report: 1. Ended the start of the normalisation process (trade the facts trigger) and 2. Unlocked 3 further hikes this year.

Here is a quick reminder or where we are. The answer is in here.

-> This is the flow we build before the FED:

Quoting sisse
On the bottom we have a clear consensus around 1.049x although we have one as low as 1.039x....
On the top we have a relative wide range. The average is at 1.076x [I strongly disagree]. In my books the top comes @1.087x.
On the flip. This is all over the place. .. but strangely or not averaging all calls we get around 1.061x s.... [Flip comes at 1.057x for today in my case].
-> This is my post right before the FED:

Quoting sisse
Here we go for the FED. Expecting inline with expectations in all fronts. ...

On the TA expecting 1.087x to be finally decided today one way or the other. Bulls come with the upper hand with plenty of air at these levels. Wide zigzag in play for 1.063x to the v. highs of the 1.08xx handle with a softer FED in inflation and outlooks triggering a quick leg in Dollar just below 100.xx to mark the low of the year
-> Here is the post right after the FED:

Quoting sisse
Hikes, Hawkish on the headline. Inline. Stage 1 [and 2 now] cleared. sisse
Quoting sisse
Everybody back on the table trading time....watch-out Dollar moves to start right now till the close. sisse
I hope it helps ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,734
  • Mar 21, 2017 4:59am Mar 21, 2017 4:59am
[quote=sisse;9689266]...and I will take that in the Euro. Clearing first target from the FED hikes flow on the test 1.079x. Only extension left open without much expectations and forced micromanaging from NY onwards. Eyes on Sterling* with inflation overshooting above targets as it will trigger a major early alerts for RMT for the BOE right after Art 50 is announced... sisse {quote}

I am still holding EURO longs at least until 1.0820- 1.0850 area .
Also, got in on GBP today , nice to see you agree with what i see in my charts .

Good luck all !
On Euro - be patient with your shorts people, no point jumping in so early , you will get plenty of opportunities to short. I don't understand why people are so eager to short this thing as it continues to move up.
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  • #148,735
  • Mar 21, 2017 5:24am Mar 21, 2017 5:24am
Important updates from Sterling* triggering RMT for the mid term via inflation. Things could get even very dangerous if we overshoot during the spring as we will be setting for a double and painful whammy (slow down in the economy with inflation).

-> All outlooks in Sterling long, mid and short term re confirmed in Solid Neutral until Art 50 is out of the picture.

Top of the range unlocked @ > 1.30xx but bottom is naked @ 1.21xx via risk. BOE has the key for both. Very wide range in play for the rest of the year with very wide volatility in play so if you don't know exactly how to handle it, be extremely cautious with stops as the r:r will be very poor not by the reward side but by the risk side....

sisse

Quoting Bud Foxx
.a....e patient with your shorts people, no point jumping in so early , you will get plenty of opportunities to short. I don't understand why people are so eager to short this thing as it continues to move up. {image}
We haven't really move at all yet. We are stuck in the 3er narrower Q compression range since the Euro was introduced. We are trading air and chop between 1.06x and 1.08x. I think the guys are referring and aiming for the mid term swing not the current leg from the FED flow ....

In any case, well done with those longs....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,736
  • Mar 21, 2017 5:24am Mar 21, 2017 5:24am
Hi Sisse,

I have one question regarding the conversation you are having with earleone.
Normally when we are in sell outlook we should trade from the inside to the outside, so in this case it should be from the flip and in the direction of the outlook.
But at this case considering the ZAG leg we are trading from the outside to the inside.
Is it because we where already above the flip before entering the FOMC that you knew that chances where big we would visit the extreme around 1.087x in case we would have a inline FOMC?

What would have been the scenario according to you if NFP on 10 march wouldn't have taken us above the flip and we would have had the same market reaction on FOMC, only this time we would have entered the FOMC event while EURUSD would be below the flip?

Would it be likely that price didn't break above the flip in that case?
  • #148,737
  • Mar 21, 2017 5:58am Mar 21, 2017 5:58am
Watch-out Dollar ticking below 100.xx right before NY wakes up.

Tracking extremely closely the FX board now ....

sisse

Quoting Sitting duck
Normally when we are in sell outlook we should trade from the inside to the outside, so in this case it should be from the flip and in the direction of the outlook.
Yes.

Quote
But at this case considering the ZAG leg we are trading form the outside to the inside. Is because we where already above the flip before the FOMC that you knew that chances where big we would visit the extreme around 1.087x ....

Yes we trade from the outside / in with cheaper tickets the closer to the extreme and the most expensive at the other extreme side.

You are assuming there was a short or (mid) term swing in play when it wasn't. We are trading a simple news flow from the FED hike inside of the exactly same mid and short term range.

I know where are you coming from, because it seem a rather large range but you are forgetting one key variable: VOLATILITY. A few weeks ago (check back posts) we called and discussed way in advance that we were going to have an increase in volatility in the very short term till the FED March is played out.

...TA wise we don't need to visit 1.087x area any longer since last Friday. It's still unlocked intraday but the FED flow will be pretty much digested on a tick to the 1.080x handle ....

The current leg is neither a short or mid term swing in my books. Its just a simple flow but given the wide range it seems bigger (and very tradable as you well know) in scope than it actually is. Only a double hike or a major hawkish FED would have triggered a swing. Everything else including inline (as we got) was a normal news flow exactly as forecasted before the FED.

In simple words, if you are talking about short and mid term: Same levels, same maps, same outlooks.... same all.

I hope it helps.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,738
  • Mar 21, 2017 6:30am Mar 21, 2017 6:30am
Quoting sisse
{quote} IMO, your ST range is way off mark. You are out of synch with that map. @Earleone IMO, your MT range is way off mark. You are out of synch with that map. {quote} {quote} I am going to be a pain in the ass @Earleone... just for the sake of the last conversation.... I will double up and take the exact opposite side in the Euro right now. Long 1.071x targeting 1.083x with stop below the last break in your tiny chart...would you hesitate this time on the short side? or you will pull...
"mission accomplished," our idiot "reality tv star" fulfilled my expectations.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,739
  • Mar 21, 2017 6:32am Mar 21, 2017 6:32am
Quoting DexterMorgan
Ok, I'll take 3D, just for fun. Daily close above 1.08. {image}
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And there we are. Took a few hundred pips profit, letting the rest run for (hopefully) something spectacular. If not, no problem.
  • #148,740
  • Mar 21, 2017 6:36am Mar 21, 2017 6:36am
eu wise.. no change for me. a test and probably breach of 1.0828 high.. with the 1.1087 attraction.. but its probably a zig zag path.. meaning after breach, it may drop back to 1.05xx before 1.13xx.. if so, then it rises. bullish pattern would be higher, and target would be 1.13xx.. posting on the fly.. scroll down on my name. the setup is/was posted. usdx probably needs a sub 100.. those were posted also weeks ago. the pair rarely dont reach its norms such as the missed 1.2xx
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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