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Pivot Trading

  • #8,001
  • Mar 20, 2017 11:22am Mar 20, 2017 11:22am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Roszey It creates a bias.To me it also is a major R/S.By London Open you can see if daily bias is bullish or bearish by which way Daily open price moves from. Example so far AC is bullish but does not mean it can't turn around when more liquidity enter the market. Asia session for most part is continuation from previous week day momentum.It seldom deviates from this.The reason again is liquidity.It takes great deal of money turning the pair opposite direction from establish trend for that LO and NY needs to get involve. Hope this answered...
Thanks alot Davit.
I use it the for scalping as well. during London sessions
Le$$ I$ More
  • #8,002
  • Mar 20, 2017 12:12pm Mar 20, 2017 12:12pm
funny day up 500 down 800 then up 300 down 400
just waiting while my equity fluctuates
Lets see if that firecracker ass Lowe won't inflame Aussie anymore.What a ass keeps verbally pushing the Aussie up while economy is in shits and unemployment increasing.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,003
  • Mar 20, 2017 12:14pm Mar 20, 2017 12:14pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} thank you If you have no AC positions I suggest shorting this now and build positions.This has minimum 200pips south potential although I think it may go lot lower.
Iron ore is also down today, thanks for the heads up
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #8,004
  • Edited 12:32pm Mar 20, 2017 12:21pm | Edited 12:32pm
Quoting lordgbengs
{quote} Iron ore is also down today, thanks for the heads up
Aussie pairs are stuburn.I certainly learned great deal last 2 months.Made too many mistakes on the Aussie rather underestimated how important carry trade is for big players.
MM loaded up on the Aussie and only reason why its not clasping now but for everything nothing stays same too long.
Market is also unique situation with Trump as president there is obvious nervousness and unpredictable sentiment prevailing hence Aussie is perceived stable investment specially that jack ass Lowe won't shut up how great Australia is doing despite of contrary data.
I have no option now then wait.

“It’s likely that the RBA will leave interest rates unchanged at least for the next six months,” wrote National Australia Bank‘s Economist Ivan Colhoun. However, Colhoun thinks the RBA’s economic assessment is too sunny, writing:
NAB’s forecasts for economic growth in 2018 are weaker than those of the RBA, largely because we expect a drag from lower commodity prices and a downturn in the housing construction cycle. This could see the RBA again considering a further cut to interest rates late this year.
Capital Economics’ Paul Dales agrees:
Our view remains that GDP growth will be closer to 2.0% this year than 3.0%, that growth will fall short of 3.0% next year too and that underlying inflation will stay further below 2.0% for longer. What’s more, a fading of interest in Australian property from China, tighter lending conditions and higher mortgage rates will probably mean that the housing market cools before long.
This explains while we are sticking to our forecast that the RBA will cut rates to 1.0% this year despite Lowe’s suggestions to the contrary.
So it will all be about China and iron ore prices. The Aussie dollar has risen 5.7% against the greenback this year. The iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) has risen 8.4%, mostly on Aussie strength.
http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/...tic-on-growth/
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,005
  • Mar 20, 2017 12:52pm Mar 20, 2017 12:52pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Aussie pairs are stuburn.I certainly learned great deal last 2 months.Made too many mistakes on the Aussie rather underestimated how important carry trade is for big players. MM loaded up on the Aussie and only reason why its not clasping now but for everything nothing stays same too long. Market is also unique situation with Trump as president there is obvious nervousness and unpredictable sentiment prevailing hence Aussie is perceived stable investment specially that jack ass Lowe won't shut up how great Australia is doing despite of contrary...
Thanks for this, to technically corroborate your views. If you look at the charts (weekly) iron ore and AUDUSD hasn't been making new highs since Feb 2017 which to me signifies a potential weakness and baring any new information to further support the bullish momentum, i will defer to an evolving bearishness on the AUD. I may be wrong but I got my risk under control

Cheers
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #8,006
  • Mar 20, 2017 2:56pm Mar 20, 2017 2:56pm
Had a read through the previous mp statement
According to Lowe everything is great.
This is what your against. Regarding employment the forward indicators were looking good then.
Perhaps he will outline concerns and threats to the Aus
Doesnt help that the Fed are now less hawkish and Poloz is dovish. Although if the US shale producers join forces with Opec regarding prices the CAD will go through the roof.
Then in Europe there is Brexit and a French election which does not help matters
That leaves the Yen and Kiwi. One is a safe haven and the other is neutral.
GL
  • #8,007
  • Mar 20, 2017 5:03pm Mar 20, 2017 5:03pm
I would stick with Lowe for now, he is the influencer.
  • #8,008
  • Mar 20, 2017 5:19pm Mar 20, 2017 5:19pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Aussie pairs are stuburn.I certainly learned great deal last 2 months.Made too many mistakes on the Aussie rather underestimated how important carry trade is for big players. MM loaded up on the Aussie and only reason why its not clasping now but for everything nothing stays same too long. Market is also unique situation with Trump as president there is obvious nervousness and unpredictable sentiment prevailing hence Aussie is perceived stable investment specially that jack ass Lowe won't shut up how great Australia is doing despite of contrary...

There has been publicity in the last couple of weeks in Oz re. concern about foreign investors buying a lot of Sydney and Melbourne property for investments, then leaving properties unoccupied, thus pushing up property prices and rental prices, due to lack of available properties on market. Some recent stats suggest foreign investors are responsible for appx. 10% of transactions in Syd. and Melbourne. In most of Oz, the property market has stagnated for quite some time, Melbourne and Sydney have rocketed, causing an overall imbalance, which is difficult to control via conventional methods ie. interest rates. The Feds are now looking at implementing increased stamp duty for foreign investors on purchases. Two major banks have raised rates independent of Fed this last week. They have made a bigger increase on rates for properties owned by investors, which they also did at their last rate increase. This is punitive to investors, as some local councils, especially Queensland, where I unfortunately have a couple of investment properties, have also targeted investors by charging them more for local council services than they charge owner occupiers. The cumulative impact of government and banks targeting investors, along with property devaluations in Queensland due to previous mining downturn, is hurting the property market, as I know from personal experience. So to sum it up, there are chaotic forces influencing property in Oz, and the media and Government focus too much on Syd and Melbourne, and by creating policy to deal with the "boom in property prices" based on these two areas alone, they are causing major problems elsewhere. So all another factor to consider in the complex equation of where the economy in OZ is headed. More than the bumbling fools in the Government can handle. Watching A/C as well, no entry yet, D/T on Daily chart set up.
  • #8,009
  • Mar 20, 2017 5:26pm Mar 20, 2017 5:26pm
Australia is doing the best of the OECD partners.
  • #8,010
  • Mar 20, 2017 5:30pm Mar 20, 2017 5:30pm
Quoting Davit
could anyone post crude oil chart with my template?Like to see the pivot levels on it. thank you

Another view for you Bud. Brent Crude 4HR and Daily. Pivot line in interesting zone. Just below R38, which is Border between two ranging areas.
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  • #8,011
  • Mar 20, 2017 9:13pm Mar 20, 2017 9:13pm
Steel Prices Stable Amid Optimism Over China’s Property Sector
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Leia Toovey
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March 20, 2017 - 15:23 GMT
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Chinese steel prices may have edged down on Monday, but the commodity remains supported near recent highs due to investors’ bullish expectations on growth in China’s property sector.
Concerns that China’s moves to cool its red-hot property sector would dent steel demand have been a bit of a dark cloud hanging over the market in recent months, but these concerns were abated last week after China reported a surge in property sales in the first two months of the year. The surge in sales also suggested that China’s policies are becoming ineffective at cooling property prices and that growth may continue despite the government’s attempts to rein it in.
Meanwhile, China is pointing out that the fight against excess steel capacity should be undertaken globally, and that China should not bear all of the burden. “China should not be singled out in a fight against excess steel capacity that requires stronger global cooperation”, Wang Shouwen, a vice commerce minister, said on Saturday according to Reuters. China has recognized the seriousness of overcapacity problems in some industries and has been trying to deal with the issue, while some other countries have been “just talking and watching”, Wang added.
China has pledged to cut steel overcapacity by 50 million metric tons this year, on top of the 65 million tons cut in 2016. However; Greenpeace has pointed out that most of the cuts in 2016 were from already idled plants. China’s steel exports took a big hit in 2016 as countries implemented protectionist measures. China has denied that it unfairly boosts its domestic steel producers.
On Monday, the most-active rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 0.2% to reach 3,581 yuan ($519) a ton. Last Wednesday, it reached a three-year high of 3,692 yuan.
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  • #8,012
  • Edited 10:12pm Mar 20, 2017 9:21pm | Edited 10:12pm
A few pips banked on E/A applying Daily Open levels with Pivot points. Sometimes D/O reverses S/T during slow ranging such as Asian session
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  • #8,013
  • Mar 20, 2017 9:32pm Mar 20, 2017 9:32pm
A/U news done and dusted. P/A testing for a drop down to next level.
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  • #8,014
  • Edited Mar 21, 2017 6:16am Mar 20, 2017 10:06pm | Edited Mar 21, 2017 6:16am
anyone realize this ADR that we are used show strange calculation?

USDCAD show ADR percentage 95.6 % in that picture
But if i do calculation it must be 70/72*100% = 97.22%

AUDCAD show ADR percentage 94.2 % in that picture
But if i do calculation it must be 52/61*100% = 85.24% (big gap)

EURAUD show ADR percentage 86.0 % in that picture
But if i do calculation it must be 88/101*100% = 87.13%

AUDNZD show ADR percentage 77.3 % in that picture
But if i do calculation it must be 41/56*100% = 73.21%

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I know one thing, that I know nothing - Socrates
  • #8,015
  • Edited 11:14pm Mar 20, 2017 11:02pm | Edited 11:14pm
Quoting Tamarind77
anyone realize this ADR that we are used show strange calculation? or i wrong calculate this? USDCAD show ADR percentage 95.6 % in that picture But if i do calculation it must be 70/72*100% = 97.22% AUDCAD show ADR percentage 94.2 % in that picture But if i do calculation it must be 52/61*100% = 85.24% (big gap) EURAUD show ADR percentage 86.0 % in that picture But if i do calculation it must be 88/101*100% = 87.13% AUDNZD show ADR percentage 77.3 % in that picture But if i do calculation it must be 41/56*100% = 73.21% {image}
I just want to know how you calculate it.
Just for clarification it does not calculate from NY close my indicator.I think it calculates from 12am EST like now 5 min ego.
I wished I could put that input in the indicator when I want it to start the day but don't know how and I am not a programmer.Its not the ideal ADR indicator if someone has one that input can be controlled that would be ideal.
What I suggest to do is start the calculation manually from my indicator NY close.Like in the picture
ADR shows 4 from 12am but in actuality its 31 since market opens from 5pm. Its probably easy fix if Voti or someone else simply changes the input to start from 5pm instead of 12am
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,016
  • Mar 20, 2017 11:22pm Mar 20, 2017 11:22pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I just want to know how you calculate it. Just for clarification it does not calculate from NY close my indicator.I think it calculates from 12am EST like now 5 min ego. I wished I could put that input in the indicator when I want it to start the day but don't know how and I am not a programmer.Its not the ideal ADR indicator if someone has one that input can be controlled that would be ideal. What I suggest to do is start the calculation manually from my indicator NY close.Like in the picture {image}
Hi Davit,
This is how i calculate it, using current today range divide by average 20 days range.

Example:
AUDCAD ADR_v2 indicator says percentage 94.2 %in that picture
But if i do calculation: that current range is 52, if divide by 61 (average 20 days), it must be 85.24
Difference is almost 10%.

That picture is taken from OANDA GMT-5.

And this is new example from AUDCAD for now. Taken from OANDA.
ADR_v2 indicator says 5.2% but if i do calculation it must be 5.0%.
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I know one thing, that I know nothing - Socrates
  • #8,017
  • Mar 20, 2017 11:27pm Mar 20, 2017 11:27pm
Quoting Tamarind77
{quote} Hi Davit, This is how i calculate it, using current today range divide by average 20 days range. Example: AUDCAD ADR_v2 indicator says percentage 94.2 %in that picture But if i do calculation: that current range is 52, if divide by 61 (average 20 days), it must be 85.24 Difference is almost 10%. That picture is taken from OANDA GMT-5. And this is new example from AUDCAD for now. Taken from OANDA. ADR_v2 indicator says 5.2% but if i do calculation it must be 5.0%. {image}
its not perfect for sure.Indi needs to be fixed.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,018
  • Mar 20, 2017 11:35pm Mar 20, 2017 11:35pm
In considering the stance of monetary policy, members noted that recent data had continued to support a more positive outlook for growth of Australia's major trading partners than had been apparent a few quarters earlier. A number of indicators, including growth in global industrial production, global trade volumes and business sentiment, had improved. Recent data had also confirmed the pick-up in global inflation. Financial market data suggested that the probability of the Federal Reserve increasing the federal funds rate at the March meeting had increased markedly and there was no longer an expectation of further monetary easing in other major economies. At the same time, however, there continued to be significant uncertainty about policy in China and the United States and the implications for global growth and trade after 2017.

"Momentum in the labour market remained difficult to assess, but it was clear that spare capacity remained and there continued to be significant differences in labour market outcomes across the country. Domestic wage pressures remained subdued and household income growth had been low, which, if it were to persist, would have implications for consumption growth and the risks posed by the level of household debt. Spare capacity was expected to decline slowly as momentum in the economy built; wage growth and underlying inflation were expected to rise, but only gradually.
Recent data continued to suggest that there had been a build-up of risks associated with the housing market. In some markets, conditions had been strong and prices were rising briskly, although in other markets prices were declining. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments was scheduled to come on stream over the next few years. Growth in rents had been the slowest for two decades. Borrowing for housing by investors had picked up over recent months and growth in household debt had been faster than that in household income. Supervisory measures had contributed to some strengthening of lending standards".

Sounds like mix bag basically optimistic if mining and commodity prices continue to increase...however lots of uncertainty and difficult to predict job growth "labor"
To me its bearish outlook.
If you think otherwise I am all ears.Like to hear traders from Australia that actually live there.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,019
  • Mar 20, 2017 11:37pm Mar 20, 2017 11:37pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} There has been publicity in the last couple of weeks in Oz re. concern about foreign investors buying a lot of Sydney and Melbourne property for investments, then leaving properties unoccupied, thus pushing up property prices and rental prices, due to lack of available properties on market. Some recent stats suggest foreign investors are responsible for appx. 10% of transactions in Syd. and Melbourne. In most of Oz, the property market has stagnated for quite some time, Melbourne and Sydney have rocketed, causing an overall imbalance, which...
Thanks for your valuable feedback
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,020
  • Mar 21, 2017 2:02am Mar 21, 2017 2:02am
Quoting Davit
....Like to hear traders from Australia that actually live there.
Personally, I'm seeing a lot more people working casual or part time jobs to make ends meet. There doesn't seem to be much in the way of full time work going at the moment. Seems to be a transition into automation where they can in places like the mines, and many big employers in my state seem to be turning to importing their product if they were manufacturing. Perhaps white collar workplaces are different.
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