The Really Useless Thread

Have to unfollow Trump on Twitter ... Not a single tweet without two words "FAKE NEWS" ...

Warning, long post:

Here we go with the protectionism bit: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g2...-idUSKBN16P0FN

This may happen, but only in part b/c I don't think the US Congress will play ball.

Having watched US politics for going on 25 years now - I really doubt that we're going to see the protectionism that Trump has campaigned on. He (and mostly Congress) certainly will be able to reduce corporate taxes, reduce taxes on the wealthy, slash gov't programs, deregulate (environmental rules/financial rules/etc), effectively turn back gov't sponsored healthcare and redirect a massive chunk of gov't spending toward the military (all of these things are 'Republican' in some respect for good or for bad). This he can and will do b/c it's inline with what Republicans in Congress want. They'll all take credit for it and publicly grab ass for awhile to show their Republican "unity".

However, when it comes to contentious issues like protectionism... Trump really has few allies in Congress with which to do battle. With his public popularity questionable already he won't really have a big hand to play when he asks to overturn a 60+ year status quo of mostly open trade. There are a lot of powerful interests that are strongly opposed to turning open trade policy on its head and in many ways it's oddly un-Republican (when considering the last 80+ years) to even consider a sweeping protectionist measure for real (outside of some targeted tariffs in ag and a few metals/commodities). Heck, even to this day in US public school macro economics class in 11th-12th grade - the curriculum stresses the primacy of competitive advantage and isolates free trade as one of the principal goals of capitalism and an ideal means to increase economic growth.

Apart from a renegotiation of NAFTA, the already dead TPP - is there real Congressional (or big money) support behind a major trade policy 180 or a broad set of tariffs? Not seeing it here... seems a mixed bag for even the major players that would stand to benefit. I can't see how Trump has any angle on fighting that battle. I suspect Congress tables, guts or suspends debate on any major protectionist legislation coming from the White House.

****

On another point, here's a notable quote from the press release, "We reaffirm our previous exchange rate commitments, including that we will refrain from competitive devaluations and we will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes," the G20 said.

Oh and say goodbye to any semblance of official US participation in environmental initiatives for the next 4 years at least... sigh...

http://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/...7-2-narratives

Pretty much agree. In my opinion for DJT, if you can't tweet it, it might as well not exist. This factor makes TPP and NAFTA the only international trade issues to take on. ("Phytosanitary regulations in the US-AUSTRALIAN Free Trade Agreement run contrary to a robust AMERICA FIRST agenda and will be revisited in the coming months! Don't believe the failing mainstream media!" just doesn't have the same sweet tweet meat on the bone to rile up base support compared to firing off a few quick and tasty NAFTA quips). TPP is checked off the list but there's enough Republican farmers and retail exporters in deep red states for whom NAFTA is anything but a dirty word to put that "renegotiation " through the grinder. It will be interesting to see what it looks like on the other side. G-20 is a show of course, maybe more like a dress rehearsal. White House played their role without forgetting any of their lines. Let's see how it goes on opening night when at least some of the critics are Iowa congressmen.

Wow, they should have titled that piece 'Quantum Physics Hijacks FED Reaction". I think this falls in line with Sisse's comments on normalization and the reduced impact of RMT going forward.

Right? The future determines the past. Heavy, bro.

Yeh the number of breads have been pretty much speficied for long time, and the ingredients to make them aswell, plenty of bread already baked. If markets get to have chance to chew on something for long time and performance of asset aligns to it, its safe to asume someone has done some baking. So unless they go and hire Gordon Ramsay its safe to asume that there shouldnt be major turnover upwards.

I studied Elliott Wave Theory heavily over the past year.
My plan is 1% a day for 90 days...Im 30% in and cant wait to claim success

Divergence Theme Questioned

http://www.marctomarket.com/2017/03/...uestioned.html

A rather negative weekend for the Global Economy from the G20. The world is advancing at the very fast pace to protectionism and destroying the core of the international trade structures.

--> I am starting to get very negative in the mid and long term outlook in the global economy. US is playing with fire and it will get burnt [and badly]if it cross the line. UK looks set to jump into the abyss in this front, large emerging economies including China are on the brink to enter in full protectionism mode too in reaction, leaving the EU as last major player to put a buffer a sanity against this backwards and medieval ideas of protectionism but with elections still to clear.

--> Markets especially the most greedy myopic hands are getting distracted on short term crumbs at the current levels while major and very destructive forces in the mid and long term are taking over. We are going to get a major sweep on outlook changes in Equities earlier than most anticipated.

Short term, Gold with a very solid move (well done all here ... @chester ? simple ride isn't it), Dollar inches away to complete the test under 100.xx (it failed by crumbs on the European opening) but it looks a matter of 'minutes' rather than weeks. This is the only one to track in FX since the FED as setting Dollar low of this year in the spring is in play.

On the rest of the board, all markets behaving...

sisse

======== --- =========

A quick update in the iterations to clear most pending conversations. SNAP second trade. All stopped out. For those who trade it live, a decent trade but the home run didn't pan out.

b. Buy LMT 10% below @$22.x[check] targeting TP1 (22%) => $26.9x => TP2 (34%) $29.4x STP 5% below[check]

IMARICH1

Pharm0r

hoom

Pixie666

cashfactor

eborn

Replican

Vorex

Grinsakh

Earleone

Well done all holding longs 1.057x. Second target clear @ 1.076x.

Short @ 1.060x [check] -> TP1 1.046x -> TP2 1.035x -> STP 1.071x [check] ---> Min r:r 1 : 1.5

For longs. A simple range we have a clearer entries and targets averages:

Longs @ 1.057x [check] -> TP1 1.067x [check]-> TP2 1.076x [check] -> STP 1.047x --> Min r:r 1 : 1

...and finally for the last iteration. Nobody took the direct long but the simple hikes news flow ride cleared on the test 1.076x.

+++ Final extra iteration for the FED ++++

"Mirror and Shadows. Playing with the big boys"

5A. Direct Long 1.063x[check] -> TP1 1.076x [check] --> STP 1.058x -> +/-R:R 1:3

5C. ZigZag Long 1.063x [check]-> TP1 1.076x[check] -> STP 1.058x -> REVERSO 1.076x [in play] -> TP2 1.049x -> STP2 1.081x Min +/-R:R 1:6

gazpacho

Xemat

chronical

IMARICH1

mayafx

ptoftangency

priceaction1

kayaker

nutts

A quick Q only for those that took the zigzag:

Q2: Now that you have the news, A LOT more data and information on whats gong on and price is already at 1.076x. How would you manage the 'zag' of the move:

a. 'Getting scary bulls are too strong Euro, I will clear all shorts and load a small longs to 1.087x'
b. 'Nothing to see here. Sitting tight @1.076x on the same levels and letting markets pan out'
c. 'I prefer to clear all for a scratch trade and reload shorts higher once we test the 1.08xx handle'

If you don't reply it's assume you stay put.

sisse

for me
B.
as it looks like rejection on D1 if NY open does not break the highs i m in.

If i would have been in the zig zag i would go for option C.
It looks like there is a lot more liquidity to be found around that level + there is a speech from yellen on Thursday which gives us 3 days time to test those levels.

b

C for me

c

B would usually be answer.

But, I think C is correct. I believe .087x is a better spot to go short since Dollar is still looking for a bottom.

agree, above .087x is sitting duck area.

B

Dull sessions, uneventful opening range. We have a very light calendar for a few weeks with soft French noise on the background (still a few weeks to get in centre stage). Only Brexit hiccups left this month on the formality of announcing Art 50 and jumping into isolation mode discussions that will last for the rest of the year and beyond.

We are aligning for setting 2017 yearly highs and lows across main markets, including Dollar, Oil, Gold, US and UK Equities among the main ones with the Quarterly close.

sisse

On the iteration...thanks table closed. kayaker & priceaction1, gazpacho.... out... GL all remaining ones, especially those trading live....

+++ Update 2 Final extra iteration for the FED ++++

"Mirror and Shadows. Playing with the big boys"

5C. ZigZag Long 1.063x [check]-> TP1 1.076x[check] -> STP 1.058x -> REVERSO 1.076x [in play] -> TP2 1.049x -> STP2 1.081x Min +/-R:R 1:6

Xemat

chronical

IMARICH1

mayafx

ptoftangency

nutts

c. 'I prefer to clear all for a scratch trade and reload shorts higher once we test the 1.08xx handle'