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Wolfe Waves - Get in the Zone

  • #441
  • Mar 19, 2017 8:28am Mar 19, 2017 8:28am
Quoting CrocodileRex
If using 30 pips as a stoploss, then this previous wolfe wave might as well ended up a breakeven also because price never reached there, not to mention the EPA. If i based my stoploss of this chart at the 2 fibo line there, it would be around 30 to 37pips depend on whether you entered on 1.27 or 1.41. That is why i am currently starting to feel a little headache about position management. Should i use larger stops? Or lesser stops and quickly get out of the position? Keep in mind that wolfe wave is basically an anti trend thing. We are selling at...
Separate waves, this is the first wave.

If you zoom out you can see that the most recent important S/R is right at the ABCD completion level. The only problem I see here is the round number so you know there should be supply heading towards 140. Turns out there was and price bounce 30 pips back down. Scaling in early with smaller positions lessens the total risk, plus if price reverses early you wont miss the bounce. Excellent symmetry length and time too.

Also, the TMS angulator shows all time frames are either down or moving sideways, so really shorting here is not going against the general trends.
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #442
  • Edited 8:46am Mar 19, 2017 8:32am | Edited 8:46am
Quoting parviz1953
{quote} hi expo : there is another very important factor in detection of ww by this indicator , and that is the setting of ExtDepth input ,here i will show two picture of the same pair and time frame ,one with ExtDepth set to 6 and the other to 12 , as you noticed the 6 one detect earlier CWW:{image}{image} OH by the way ,images are from the newest version that i am still working on it , it is supposed to detect other harmonics ,in addition to WW
That makes good sense. I'm always fiddling with extdepth on my zig zag to try and get the legs to fit the wave I'm analyzing
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #443
  • Mar 19, 2017 8:44am Mar 19, 2017 8:44am
Quoting RobinHoodPLT
Hey Kurt, Great thread you started here! I'm still trying to catch up with older posts, but I wanted to know if if your intent is to keep this discussion specific to forex instruments only? Right now 100% of my focus is day trading the ES on a very short time frame. I mostly just trade the first two hours of the session primarily off a 1min chart. But I do keep an eye out on wolf waves and really like that pattern. If I were to start all over again, I think I would have initially focused my energy on swing trading higher time frames first then working...
Thanks RH.

WW theory works on all time frame and all instruments. Feel free to post any instrument you are trading. Bill Wolfe didn't trade forex he traded securities, indexes, etc. Volume spikes around reversals were an important part of his analysis, unfortunately in forex we don't have access to true volume.

The 9.3% is how much my Demo account has gained since I started it 8 days ago. I'm not trading anyone else's money although I did have someone message me and offer me a chance to trade a PAMM account for a new brokerage provided my tracked trading live explorer met their specifications. If you click on the link it will take you to my profile and at the bottom has all of the particulars of the trade explorer. In the settings a trader can have the explorer show at the bottom of their posts as mine does. I use it as a tool to monitor my risk management and also to show that the system works. Obviously, you don't have the same emotions as real money but it's still a great way to test new systems. I would encourage everyone to demo test WWs first until you have proven to yourself that you can execute the strategy successfully.

Look forward to your posts and best of trading to you

-Kurt
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #444
  • Edited 10:25am Mar 19, 2017 8:51am | Edited 10:25am
Dear expo:
This is another example of the difference between 6 and 12 setting on same pair and same TF . Is this what you were asking , and looking for..?
the smallest the ExtDepth the more recent waves are shown , though less than 3 is not working reliably.

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  • #445
  • Mar 19, 2017 8:53am Mar 19, 2017 8:53am
Looking forward to a good week everyone. Time for a little snooze.

Trade safe and remember.....MAP IT OUT!
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #446
  • Mar 19, 2017 9:21am Mar 19, 2017 9:21am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} Well according to WW theory the actual wave would have been complete long before where the indicator shows point D. That's why I asked in my previous post how the indicator decides that the wave is complete because in this example the D point doesn't remotely line up with the sweet zone theory
would you please elaborate more on sweet zone theory , what is it exactly , and do you think it should be implemented in this indicator for better identification of a profitable CWW ? do you mean that if D finish in this zone then that is a reliable WW ?
  • #447
  • Edited 1:03pm Mar 19, 2017 11:21am | Edited 1:03pm
Quoting parviz1953
Hi : On the bases of the WW criteria this example is a bad failure ...? Am i wrong? {image}

Hi Dude,

as very often, a trend continuation wolfe wave will form just after the neck line break of an head and shoulder..., so yes this a failed wolfe wave but what a wonderful head and shoulders, that is why a wolf wave as a trend continuation pattern would have been worth the risk, because of a failed head and shoulders.

Risk vs reward is the key among consistancy.

It is also my preferred wolf wave because it lines up with the corrective wave of elliot wave theory (ABC) that is a trend continuation pattern ready to ride the next impulsive wave, be it the 3rd or the 5th wave.

I am sure Expo33 will be very interested, it is a nice filter instead of some creepy indicators.
Attached Images
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #448
  • Edited 1:12pm Mar 19, 2017 11:29am | Edited 1:12pm
Quoting Expo33
{quote} Hello Niaz, welcome to forex factory. Thanks for using the template and for clearly marking everything out. It helps me a lot as my eyes are very sensitive. I never want to dissuade someone from taking or not taking a trade as I certainly don't have all the answers but there are a couple of things I see with this trade that may present a problem. First off, when I mapped this out it shows that XB is actually a bit less than parallel, so structurally this wave isn't technically valid. Not a deal breaker but certainly something to be aware...

Hi Expo33 and all,

the first problem on the wolf waves is the fractal off it, when unfolding in another and another and another and also the counter trend nature of it, in a strong trend you will have a lot of wolfe waves anticipation that you will trade but are just an ABC trend continuation pattern (ABC being 123 or XAB by expo33) and I do mean a lot, so beware the drawdown therefore money / risk management.

For ABC patterns just look at elliot waves theory.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #449
  • Mar 19, 2017 11:34am Mar 19, 2017 11:34am
Quoting frx_trader
What do you think? NZDCAD weekly. AB=CD. AC = BD. Expecting retracement .9475 ( 50%) to .9545 (76%). {image}

That is a nice Gartley pattern but definitively not a Wolfe wave.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #450
  • Mar 19, 2017 11:41am Mar 19, 2017 11:41am
Quoting parviz1953
{quote} would you please elaborate more on sweet zone theory , what is it exactly , and do you think it should be implemented in this indicator for better identification of a profitable CWW ? do you mean that if D finish in this zone then that is a reliable WW ?

Hi Parviz,

the D on your screenshot was way too far, it should have been close to the 1-3 trend line and not much more than a AB=CD pattern, like a "zone" your D point was a what, like 500% expansion and 800% extension ? where is the AB=CD in this ?

The key on this pattern is symmetry on the XY basis.

Thanks for posting anyway.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #451
  • Mar 19, 2017 12:37pm Mar 19, 2017 12:37pm
Also I wanted to contribute to the great work of Expo33 by adding this elliot wave formation that is a wolf wave reversal pattern being a 5th elliot wave (ending diagonal), confluence is the key to filter out bad trades.
Attached Image
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #452
  • Edited 1:28pm Mar 19, 2017 1:17pm | Edited 1:28pm
Quoting LDFX
{quote} Hi Parviz, the D on your screenshot was way too far, it should have been close to the 1-3 trend line and not much more than a AB=CD pattern, like a "zone" your D point was a what, like 500% expansion and 800% extension ? where is the AB=CD in this ? The key on this pattern is symmetry on the XY basis. Thanks for posting anyway.
Thanks for your responce:
You know what is my problem dude, I want to code it ,so what i need are exact figures , like when we say AB=CD,+/- of how much is acceptable..?
for example give me a percentage.(like AB/CD ratio should be between 90% to 110% )
And from your other message , what do you mean exactly by "confluence"...?
  • #453
  • Edited 1:59pm Mar 19, 2017 1:43pm | Edited 1:59pm
, if you thin
Quoting parviz1953
{quote} Thanks for your responce: You know what is my problem dude, I want to code it ,so what i need are exact figures , like when we say AB=CD,+/- of how much is acceptable..? for example give me a percentage.(like AB/CD ratio should be between 90% to 110% ) And from your other message , what do you mean exactly by "confluence"...?

I do not think it is possible to code it.

What I meant by confluence is a meeting of two pattern at least.

Coding will never get you ahead of hard work, it you think a machine can do it better than you.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #454
  • Mar 19, 2017 4:19pm Mar 19, 2017 4:19pm
I could also contribute some thoughts to this interesting thread (once again thanks to Expo for initiating). I would echo the thoughts of LDFX in that it would be extremely difficult to code this sort of thing and, more importantly, that confluence is the key. The attached chart should help to explain the confluence effect and why the market turned where it did on Friday afternoon. There is no substitute for hard work and looking for likely Support and Resistance including, but not limited to, prior highs and lows, trend and channel lines, signal bar highs and lows, measured move targets, previous day OHLC etc. A Wolfe Wave is a reversal pattern and will only ever take place at support or resistance so trying to identify these areas is the key. So what can we identify from the H4 chart attached?
1) A channel line from 8 Dec through Feb 2 and extended to the right (I tend to think that tails on top / bottom of bars represent slight over-extension when testing a level so I look for a likely place for the line to pass through in real time. Here, we have the benefit of hindsight).
2) Sunday 5th Feb produced a bear signal bar (circled) whose low had not yet been tested and was , therefore, a magnet.
3) Late Feb into early March produced a trading range and double bottom bull flag pattern which afforded a measured move target as shown by the red bars so was another magnet.
4) The yellow bars represent a leg 1 = leg 2 measured move. It is possible to get a better approximation than the move shown by looking at where the likely start and end of the first leg really were. For instance, I would surmise that the first leg started with a test of the March 3 signal bar high and finished on the channel line just under the yellow bar at around 10700, but again that is easy to say with the benefit of hindsight - at any rate, another magnet was in the same general area.
So we have 4 resistance points clustered in the same area and that confluence of resistance led to a reversal and maybe the start of the Wolfe Wave playing out.
An obvious downside target where support may kick in is the signal bar high on Mar 15th @ around 10640.
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  • #455
  • Mar 19, 2017 4:32pm Mar 19, 2017 4:32pm
Quoting parviz1953
{quote} would you please elaborate more on sweet zone theory , what is it exactly , and do you think it should be implemented in this indicator for better identification of a profitable CWW ? do you mean that if D finish in this zone then that is a reliable WW ?
The first post discusses it in length. Post 2 and 3 examples with further discussion
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #456
  • Mar 19, 2017 4:39pm Mar 19, 2017 4:39pm
Quoting parviz1953
Dear expo: This is another example of the difference between 6 and 12 setting on same pair and same TF . Is this what you were asking , and looking for..? the smallest the ExtDepth the more recent waves are shown , though less than 3 is not working reliably. {image}{image}
For me the extdepth setting isn't the issue. My issue is I have the wave mapped out before it completes and already have my entry strategy in place so I already know the wave is there in the first place. Still, it's a good tool and would save time for anyone who wants to study the waves after they've completed.

For others, they may find it useful if they are struggling to find or see the wave on their own. Also, many traders like to enter the trade after the wave has completed and reversed so that would still be helpful to them as well.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #457
  • Edited 9:13pm Mar 19, 2017 4:45pm | Edited 9:13pm
Back in front of the screen. Time to get a fresh look at the charts and see what's developing for the week ahead.

By the way, some good discussions, much appreciated.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #458
  • Mar 19, 2017 9:50pm Mar 19, 2017 9:50pm
Taking a shot with WTI CRUDE OIL

Confluence factors:

1) Previous S/R
2) Gann angle support
3) AB=CD and 200FIB lines up well with this area

Notes: Not my usual move but this time I waited for a TDI cross before entry. A move back up here is also the BC leg of a larger wave so I will be watching closely for an early exit if needed

WTI CRUDE OIL 30MIN PWW
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #459
  • Mar 19, 2017 10:57pm Mar 19, 2017 10:57pm
Quoting parviz1953
{quote} would you please elaborate more on sweet zone theory , what is it exactly , and do you think it should be implemented in this indicator for better identification of a profitable CWW ? do you mean that if D finish in this zone then that is a reliable WW ?
Hi,

Could you pls. make change to your indicator, it will delete all objects when WW was not found.

Pls. do not let it delete all objects, it will affect other indicators and manual marks...

Thanks!
No one wants to be defeated~
  • #460
  • Mar 19, 2017 11:39pm Mar 19, 2017 11:39pm
Quoting jonirrenicus
{quote} Hi, Could you pls. make change to your indicator, it will delete all objects when WW was not found. Pls. do not let it delete all objects, it will affect other indicators and manual marks... Thanks!
I noticed that too, I thought I was hallucinating. I was positive I put a trend line on my chart but it disappeared.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
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