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  • #148,641
  • Mar 16, 2017 2:24pm Mar 16, 2017 2:24pm
Ok mostly B again and some C.

Don't want to extend this much longer but third question.

What about i I tell you the exact same last scenario but instead of a insider tip from a friend. You actually get the.same information forecast but from analyzing macro trends and tracking the FED.

Would you change your decision? Or you will choose the same...we'll continue later...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,642
  • Mar 16, 2017 2:27pm Mar 16, 2017 2:27pm
Keeping it same no changes
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,643
  • Mar 16, 2017 2:29pm Mar 16, 2017 2:29pm
I see your point. It would be B in both cases also if your "tip" was merely your forecasting/expectations from 8/16. Hence, the big hands were done with this move 2 weeks before the actual fact.

I need to get the 'hoping' out of my trading b/c this is pretty clear and I think I knew it all along, but didn't act...
  • #148,644
  • Mar 16, 2017 2:30pm Mar 16, 2017 2:30pm
Managing 50 bill I can mostly participate to move the market inside handles short term with some help from news etc. So no change.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,645
  • Mar 16, 2017 2:33pm Mar 16, 2017 2:33pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Don't get me wrong i know you may not doing on purposes but our are helping spread 'fake'' news feeding the pig. Noise come from the same source every other week misquoting old conversations from gossip and interviews... sisse
if this kind of headlines/tweets/rumours keep popping up at such timings , I should consider the manipulation factor from the sources in question !

Quoting sisse
Ok mostly B again and some C. Don't want to extend this much longer but third question. What about i I tell you the exact same last scenario but instead of a insider tip from a friend. You actually get the.same information forecast but from analyzing macro trends and tracking the FED. Would you change your decision? Or you will choose the same...we'll continue later... sisse
choose the same !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,646
  • Mar 16, 2017 2:35pm Mar 16, 2017 2:35pm
I would keep my original choice: B.
  • #148,647
  • Mar 16, 2017 2:39pm Mar 16, 2017 2:39pm
choose the same...

1,063X long hit the target at 1,076 and reverso shorts are in play.
Wise decisions are based on lies we living..
  • #148,648
  • Edited 3:13pm Mar 16, 2017 2:44pm | Edited 3:13pm
Quoting sisse
[...] So let me ask you a second question. Let's go back to the past again. You manage the same fund. You receive a call from somebody very close to Yellen herself Draghi himself back in august 2016 mars 2017':Hey earlone, imarich, etc. Hey mate I am going to hike in December and March 2018 guarantee you can ignore the noise until then'. [...]
Quoting sisse
What about i I tell you the exact same last scenario but instead of a insider tip from a friend. You actually get the.same information forecast but from analyzing macro trends and tracking the FED ECB.
answer "C. Revaluate your dollar euro Holdings until further data confirm the tip" and that will be then the explanation for the choppy ride in Euro these last few weeks ?

edit : just trying to outsmart the game
  • #148,649
  • Mar 16, 2017 2:44pm Mar 16, 2017 2:44pm
...And 1.076x tested in a simple ride so far. . Well done all longs from hikes but 2 thumbs up for those from 1.057x and some a bit lower.

For those that chose the reverso in the iteration and going in live on the close. GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,650
  • Mar 16, 2017 2:57pm Mar 16, 2017 2:57pm
I would also opt for B in all occasions if i would know that there is still enough time left to clear my positions.
  • #148,651
  • Mar 16, 2017 3:01pm Mar 16, 2017 3:01pm
I might reevaluate because I don't know how the other big players will behave unless I touch base with them with my virtual 50B
  • #148,652
  • Mar 16, 2017 3:08pm Mar 16, 2017 3:08pm
based solely on my analisys I would be more conservative, C and C
  • #148,653
  • Mar 16, 2017 3:23pm Mar 16, 2017 3:23pm
B across the board here.

That being said, are these 3 bullish candles and example of what is happening here? Hikes are known to be inbound, so push up as far as possible to pump and dump

Don't forget- we need to analyze EURO*....we did dollar, you said we'd come back for Euro.

also bookmarking this

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} would like to discuss how you came up with the coorelation break and normalisation finalization via FED/GOLD/Doller after the roll
  • #148,654
  • Mar 16, 2017 3:37pm Mar 16, 2017 3:37pm
I was actually thinking about opt B and then switch to A.
  • #148,655
  • Mar 16, 2017 3:56pm Mar 16, 2017 3:56pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} You are probably too early on this one, i dont see it on macro. Besides if your gona short spiky move make sure you have capitulation, look inside those candles, we had it on previous move where you are asuming that current action is replicating, right now we dont have capitulation we are still in consolidated retrace leg mode. Besides that the whole current "bear move" was in Asia. I would much rather take the other side of the trade in this case if it sets up some more for countinuation move. 780 and upwards then thinking about shorts....
Clean action no need of explanation, 744 marked the move for countinuation, small short term macro had no room for shorting on this one, engulfing candle tells no tales. 780 there lets see, for large macro shorts this needs to get extended and parabolic, NY close and PA not there, lets see London or NY tomorrow.

This was pretty good example of why NOT to look on single candle engulfing/close/whatnot as market direction, strict decision on entry perhaps yes, but other than that not, market moves in phases which needs break downs of moves/candles.
  • #148,656
  • Mar 16, 2017 4:23pm Mar 16, 2017 4:23pm
B for all 3!

I took the Long from .0638 and am trailing it tight just in case we get a run up to .087x. Doubt my stop will make it but I have a ticket for it.

I am in the iteration to Short on Reversal play but I am seeing that .087x as a logical area to reverse opposed to .076x. However, .076x is a good spot to get a better ticket for the Short.
  • #148,657
  • Mar 16, 2017 4:38pm Mar 16, 2017 4:38pm
Not sure if anyone remains interested in this iteration, but I got an alert today re: SNAP falling under $20. Looks like the market has spoken on where they see its value (see Twitter). I didn't trade it, but if you were long from under $22 from early March - it looks pretty grim.

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  • #148,658
  • Mar 16, 2017 4:48pm Mar 16, 2017 4:48pm
Quoting sisse
Ok thanks. We mostly agree in Dollar because right now should be 100% clear for all. Dollar: => Employment = full employment (technically not interested in the political blah blah we are talking economics) => Inflation = on target. A small minority concern about being too high. => Rates = 3 hikes in place with big divergences in rates with the majors. At least 3 solid rates this year. First time FED recognised that down the road (mid/long term) the hikes will accelerate (as it's normal at the end of the rates cycle). This is strong Dollar. Keep...
Hi Sisse,
I find this discussion useful as compare to EUR/USD thread.
I know its a bit late for my reply here.

USD: strong buy (inflation, full employment, rate hikes, etc)
Euro: soft sell or neutral (ECB policy, macro numbers on the recent data, elections on the run)

My selection will be B for this one.
Hopefully I can learn something here.
  • #148,659
  • Mar 16, 2017 4:52pm Mar 16, 2017 4:52pm
Quoting sisse
Ok clearly B seems the obvious option but what if i tell you receive this tip exactly on the close the day before the collapse or 3 years before the collapse. Wouid that affect your decision?. What i am trying to trigger is how to bridge expectations with trading and reality. So let me ask you a second question. Let's go back to the past again. You manage the same fund. You receive a call from somebody very close to Yellen herself back in august 2016 ':Hey earlone, imarich, etc. Hey mate I am going to hike in December and March guarantee you can...

If the one calling is Yellen, her economic stand is usually quite defensive as compare to Bernanke,
I'll take B for this one, assuming that I'm the only fund manager who receive this tips.
  • #148,660
  • Mar 16, 2017 5:00pm Mar 16, 2017 5:00pm
Quoting sisse
Ok mostly B again and some C. Don't want to extend this much longer but third question. What about i I tell you the exact same last scenario but instead of a insider tip from a friend. You actually get the.same information forecast but from analyzing macro trends and tracking the FED. Would you change your decision? Or you will choose the same...we'll continue later... sisse
Selection B as well.
If that's the case. the EUR/USD pair is still a "sell-on" rally.
The current pump is the doing of market mover to pump it high before the next dump?
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