The Really Useless Thread

Right, but you wouldn't want to take that carry trade at the bottom of the range, but it might look pretty good MT or LT if you got in at the top of the range.

More awesome pages in this thread yet again.

Agree, if it range long enough it becomes a little bit money just from the carry too

Better fade the handles at current ranges then jumping in at the middle of nowhere as I did today.

Dollar : Employment (super checked +++), Inflation (checked ++, on track towards +++ via full employment & DJT), Rates in full motion : Super strong buy

Euro* : Employment (recovering/checked +/++), Inflation (+, recovering/mixed data), QE (tapered from next month onwards, ending in December), Rates (no offical discussion) : Stuck in Soft Sell/Neutral because of the political risk otherwise it will be a soft buy (but not a buy because of the soft inflation)

Ok thanks.

We mostly agree in Dollar because right now should be 100% clear for all.

Dollar:
=> Employment = full employment (technically not interested in the political blah blah we are talking economics)

=> Inflation = on target. A small minority concern about being too high.

=> Rates = 3 hikes in place with big divergences in rates with the majors. At least 3 solid rates this year. First time FED recognised that down the road (mid/long term) the hikes will accelerate (as it's normal at the end of the rates cycle).

This is strong Dollar.

Keep in mind i am Not including risk neither factors that affect inflation (Trump fiscal blow out) or exogenous anti free market and capital flows issues (protectionism, border taxes, war, etc).

Leave those out of the equation for now. Let's focus on the core of the core.

Before we do the same for Euro* i want to make the key point here.

-> lets go back to the distant past for a minute.

Assume we are in 2007 before Lehman and financial crisis with rates at the highs of the cycle. You don't know a global meltdown is coming. All booming all roses.

- the outlook back then:

Employment = full employment
Inflation = a bit on the higher end with symptoms of overheating.
Rates = ok but concerns that another round of hikes may affect businesses

-> You manage a 50bill fund and received an 'anonymous' tip from from a very good friend in Lehman itselves saying hey hoom, pharma, etc " mate this ship is sinking next year. We are going under, subpime, etc etc etc etc...Time to sell the heck out of it before is too late".

-> now your expectations has changed. You don't know for a fact if your fiend tip will ever pan out but you know this a serious and pretty solid option. What would you do?

A. Sell the heck out of it starting as early as the next open. Dump
B. Push markets as high as possible to start dumping softly on each rally on the sectors with more potential impact (e.g banks, etc). Pump and dump.
C. Stop buying or revaluate your portfolio until you get further data.
D. Ignore all until and if ever happens. Buy in a bull market as usual. You will deal with the storm later. Ride the pig until exhaust itself.

Choose one. Remember that the decision you make will affect the next alternatives....

sisse

I'm just as confused about it all as well. The only thing that makes sense to me is that rates were confirmed and priced in. Their is some expectation that FED may do 4 hikes this yr and that expectation will be the one to send EU to finish MT leg.

However, sisse mention Gold is now in BUY Outlook which has or had a correlation to EU* but that had to do w Risk. There is still Risk in the air w BREXIT AND BOE.

But, I would lIke to understand this move. I did anticipate a zig zag move up but only due to believing those on wrong side of market had to adjust. Now, with sisse's reasons...clueless.

I'm late but it might be useful.
Category
US
EURO*
Assessment
Macro-Economy



Inflation (2%)
Close to 2%
Still lagging, but improving
Dollar ++
Employment
Almost full employment (strong NFP, Unemployment Rate= 4.7%)
Improving in the Unemployment Rate=9.4% (2015)
Rate=8.9% (2016)
Dollar ++
GDP
2.6% (2015)
1.9% (2016)
1.9% (2015)
1.9% (2016)
Neutral
Monetary Policy
Rate
So far 3 hikes and 2-3 other expected
0.75%-1%
0 hike
0.00%
Dollar +++
OUTLOOK
BUY
NEUTRAL
EUR/USD: SELL

I will choose B

With 50 Bill. No doubt
Alternative B. Push markets as high as possible to start dumping softly on each rally on the sectors with more potential impact (e.g banks, etc). Pump and dump.

1B

b

I would go with B. Thats what big boys are supposed to do.

Will go with Earleone ... B

I would say watch the big short movie
B.

Ok clearly B seems the obvious option but what if i tell you receive this tip exactly on the close the day before the collapse or 3 years before the collapse.

Wouid that affect your decision?.

What i am trying to trigger is how to bridge expectations with trading and reality.

So let me ask you a second question.

Let's go back to the past again.

You manage the same fund. You receive a call from somebody very close to Yellen herself back in august 2016 ':Hey earlone, imarich, etc. Hey mate I am going to hike in December and March guarantee you can ignore the noise until then'.

A. Start selling euro next day like crazy. Dump
B. Try to push as high as possible without getting noticed and selling softly. Pump and dump.
C. Revaluate your dollar Holdings until further data confirm the tip.
D. Ignore all until the fact and actual rates come.

sisse

Don't get me wrong i know you may not doing on purposes but our are helping spread 'fake'' news feeding the pig.

Noise come from the same source every other week misquoting old conversations from gossip and interviews...

sisse

C

c

I will expect that I was not the only fund manager was getting the information. I know the direction middle and long term and expect it is a tip I can thrust. Tricky. I try to be honest. I think I will go for B again with that big fund to create liquidity. So answer is:

B. Try to push as high as possible without getting noticed and selling softly. Pump and dump.

Same as Earlone! B

B.

B. pump and dump