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  • #148,581
  • Mar 16, 2017 2:52am Mar 16, 2017 2:52am
The capitulation play which sisse is being saying from a long I think is in play now ...
Just waiting one more confirmation ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,582
  • Mar 16, 2017 3:21am Mar 16, 2017 3:21am
Dutch election cleared. That is 1/2 [check] of the 1 and 1/2 things we needed to clear on European elections till the summer.

-> From a market perspective is positive news for Equities and Euro via risk. From a political side, its just sad that a neonazi party get such a large support in one of the most socially advanced and open democratic societies in the world ....France next for a chance to get the 'all clear' or not from EZ risk.

-> Uneventful BOJ and BOE coming which is expected to be also a uneventful meeting since macro numbers are holding and inflation didn't spike out of the forecast in the last few numbers ...keep the status quo especially with Art 50 later this month seems to be the no brainer for today.

-> On the rest of the board, European equities in happy mode with lots of good news coming from all fronts while Euro trading air at these levels and waiting for Dollar to keep ruling the FX board. NY in the first REAL session post hikes and early stages on the Economy finally having to learn how walk without the training wheels after a rather long (too long) time with artificial support.

Expecting continuation of the current flows with NY with a stop over for the BOE in the FX board.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,583
  • Mar 16, 2017 3:32am Mar 16, 2017 3:32am
Now it seems market has taken the hike as a dovish hike = C scenario.

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I think the FED flow should send us to top (minimum) triggering for the 3rd time choose your poison ST. But in any case. Im kind of loosing faith in the ST leg down/mid term exhaustion even though the outlooks remain the same. Because timewise its now (days) or never in my view.

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Anyways, will trade according to the map until the outlooks actually change.

P.S.: tracking BoE today to potentially fade the extreme top of the extension on FTSE. WeŽll see.
  • #148,584
  • Edited 4:36am Mar 16, 2017 3:55am | Edited 4:36am
Engulfing at possible top H4. Lets see how it close. But looks nice together with the golden zone in USDx index.

Edit: (after close of 4 H candle) It closed engulfing. I am starting to add shorts now .
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,585
  • Mar 16, 2017 4:39am Mar 16, 2017 4:39am
lets see close of the weekly
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  • #148,586
  • Mar 16, 2017 5:21am Mar 16, 2017 5:21am
Quoting Earleone
Engulfing at possible top H4. Lets see how it close. But looks nice together with the golden zone in USDx index. Edit: (after close of 4 H candle) It closed engulfing. I am starting to add shorts now . {image}
I don't really do that in a live trade but you seem a bit of chasing the move and in revenge mode. You might be breaking every single step on a clear path for proper consistent trading. Don't get me wrong but having read your previous post this trade doesn't seem to match your trade patterns (and I don't mean this specific trade itself) so just a quick ? are you sure if that was your plan originally?

5D. ZigZag Short 1.063x [check] -> TP1 1.049x -> STP 1.069x [check] -> REVERSO 1.049x -> TP2 1.07 -> STP2 1.044x Min +/-R:R 1:6

ashenv

Earleone

Grinsakh


For the sake of the argument and just to show you something. I will take the exact opposite side of you right now. Long 1.071x targeting 1.079x and 1.087x. Stop below the last break in your tiny chart.

We'll talk later and see if markets give us a nice live opp to discuss later...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,587
  • Mar 16, 2017 5:25am Mar 16, 2017 5:25am
@sisse this is interesting http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08gy87s
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #148,588
  • Mar 16, 2017 5:43am Mar 16, 2017 5:43am
Quote from above broadcast so I can involve the Yanks
'a pole dancer from florida with 5 mortgages ensures Goldman Sachs can make massive gains through speculation but the government is to blame for allowing this to happen in the first place'
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #148,589
  • Mar 16, 2017 5:43am Mar 16, 2017 5:43am
Ok sisse is heading to Vienna this afternoon so we have some time till the BOE to discuss and wrap up all the pending discussion from yesterday FED and beyond.

So lets start first with the check after the fact. We are here:

+++ Iteration for the FED (update 1) ++++

"Mirrors and Shadows. Playing with the big boys"


Q1: In no more than 1 line What are market expectation for today? ...not yours, not mine, the general ones. No levels no TA here ...

1A. Hikes (workingforex, Earleone, mayafx, Rundoslav, change, ashenv,primejarvis, Pixie666) [check]

>>>>-----------------------<<<<


Q2: If those are the expectations what will be the real outcome for "inline with expectations", "overshoot" and "undershoot". Choose only your personal bias (doesn't mean you need to be right or wrong). Its just your personal perception with the information you got.

2A. Inline = Hike 0.25 with an upbeat tone on the economy and with inflation inline. (primejarvis, ashenv, Fadhl, Pharm0r, workingforex, aldahman, change, Earleone,gazpacho, mayafx, mayafx, IMARICH1, Xemat )[check]

Q3: What would you expect the flow to be according to those expectations and outcomes. No TA, no levels, no indicators, price this or that ..

3B. Inline with expectations = Direct down play because of the current hike to test the lows at least. Wipe out and exhaustion leg. (KiNgEdwarD, Pharm0r) [barely still in play]
3C. Inline with expectations = ZigZag up and down we go. Hikes are already confirmed since last 2 weeks. 'The Fact' will be the perfect opp to load higher and/or to clear all the remaining short Dollar hands (mayafx, ashenv, Earleone, gazpacho, IMARICH1, change, Xemat) [in play]

Q4: Despite your bias and expectations. Can you define in 3 levels/area what will be the TOP, BOTTOM and FLIP (the point when you think one side will have a better odds than the other according to your view)

We need only 3 levels so keep it to:

Top: 1.076x [in play]
Flip: 1.061x
Bottom: 1.048x

..and finally the FED flows trade.

Q5: Choose your poison time...

5A. Direct Long 1.063x [check] -> TP1 1.076x [in play] -> STP 1.058x -> +/-R:R 1:3
5C. ZigZag Long 1.063x [check] -> TP1 1.076x [in play] -> STP 1.058x -> REVERSO 1.076x -> TP2 1.049x -> STP2 1.081x Min +/-R:R 1:6

Quoting mrcreosote
@sisse this is interesting http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08gy87s
Looks really good. Thx for sharing.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,590
  • Mar 16, 2017 5:53am Mar 16, 2017 5:53am
Quoting Earleone
Engulfing at possible top H4. Lets see how it close. But looks nice together with the golden zone in USDx index. Edit: (after close of 4 H candle) It closed engulfing. I am starting to add shorts now . {image}
You are probably too early on this one, i dont see it on macro. Besides if your gona short spiky move make sure you have capitulation, look inside those candles, we had it on previous move where you are asuming that current action is replicating, right now we dont have capitulation we are still in consolidated retrace leg mode. Besides that the whole current "bear move" was in Asia. I would much rather take the other side of the trade in this case if it sets up some more for countinuation move. 780 and upwards then thinking about shorts.
  • #148,591
  • Mar 16, 2017 5:54am Mar 16, 2017 5:54am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I don't really do that in a live trade but you seem a bit of chasing the move and in revenge mode. You might be breaking every single step on a clear path for proper consistent trading. Don't get me wrong but having read your previous post this trade doesn't seem to match your trade patterns (and I don't mean this specific trade itself) so just a quick ? are you sure if that was your plan originally? 5D. ZigZag Short 1.063x [check] -> TP1 1.049x -> STP 1.069x [check] -> REVERSO 1.049x -> TP2 1.07 -> STP2 1.044x Min +/-R:R 1:6 ashenv...
You might be right. It is top/bottom hunting. Trade was taken on the engulfing 4H for eurusd in the middle of nowwhere ( I have my top 1.079X) . So I weighted more on correlation to USDx that is in golden Zone and was getting enthusiastic when I saw the Engulfing on euro. Could be a good idea(advice to wait until USDx is cleared above 100.66 We will see. Anyway I jumped the gun.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,592
  • Mar 16, 2017 5:57am Mar 16, 2017 5:57am
Quoting Pharm0r
... why were we stopped out? Was it just a case of too many people in the boat so the boat sunk? (everyone expected hikes, so shorting was too obvious a play) Also- do we join our friends that chose 5C for the reverso short @ 1.076x? For those that went long- why'd you go long? Why do you think the shorts were stopped out? Perhaps you can help show us what we missed
Ok a quick point of order just to put everything in perspective. We started nearly a year ago. From the very start of expectations to yesterday when we finally got 'the fact' confirmation on normalisation.

This is the mid term chart update. Self-explanatory. Nothing to add except highlight ' WE HAVEN'T CHANGE THE ACTUAL TRADING RANGE MAP AT ALL !!!!"...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: midupdate.png Size: 246 KB


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,593
  • Mar 16, 2017 6:01am Mar 16, 2017 6:01am
Quoting sisse
Q5: Choose your poison time... 5A. Direct Long 1.063x [check] -> TP1 1.076x [in play] -> STP 1.058x -> +/-R:R 1:3 5C. ZigZag Long 1.063x [check] -> TP1 1.076x [in play] -> STP 1.058x -> REVERSO 1.076x -> TP2 1.049x -> STP2 1.081x Min +/-R:R 1:6 {quote} Looks really good. Thx for sharing. sisse
I'm confused with Q5, sounds like a hindsight question?
Sure I wish I had gone long yesterday @ 1.063x but looks like I missed the bus (again)
Edit: I see it is from yesterday, excuse me I go back to sleep now
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #148,594
  • Mar 16, 2017 6:02am Mar 16, 2017 6:02am
Hi Sisse,

Thanks for this last iteration, it really helped me to see all the different small steps you take before the fact to forecast the different scenarios that could happen after the fact.
Although you gave us already some tips for us to decipher what you exactly mean with the title of the iteration "Mirror and Shadows. Playing with the big boys" i have to admit that i am still not sure in which way to interpret it.

Since all aspects of trading were involved in the iteration we could put it in many perspectives wich could lead us to the wrong conclusion hence maybe missing the biggest lesson the iteration could give us.
Could you tell us at which aspect of the iteration you were aiming while choosing this title? For instance: positioning,stop runs,TA,FA etc...

Thanks in advance,
Nik
  • #148,595
  • Mar 16, 2017 6:09am Mar 16, 2017 6:09am
Quoting Pharm0r
So I guess the question now- for those that went short at all today (5B & 5D), now that we are stopped out, why were we stopped out? Was it just a case of too many people in the boat so the boat sunk? (everyone expected hikes, so shorting was too obvious a play) Also- do we join our friends that chose 5C for the reverso short @ 1.076x? For those that went long- why'd you go long? Why do you think the shorts were stopped out? Perhaps you can help show us what we missed
Quoting Sitting duck
Hi.... Since all aspects of trading were involved in the iteration we could put it in many perspectives wich could lead us to the wrong conclusion hence maybe missing the biggest lesson the iteration could give us. Could you tell us at which aspect of the iteration you were aiming while choosing this title? For instance: positioning,stop runs,TA,FA etc... Thanks in advance, Nik
I understand your questions. Lots of people have asked the same. It's actually very good that we are discussing all this in a live iteration. Lots of people around will benefit one way or another.

Let me open a few questions to think about. No need to reply directly.

-> What happened in the Euro 2 Friday's ago. When we got Yellen confirmation on hikes and reached the 'done deal' threshold for hikes (check all live discussion in the thread)?

-> What happened in the Euro last Friday. When we got a superb NFP getting a 110% confirmation on hikes 'done deal' plus +3 hikes this year on target ?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,596
  • Mar 16, 2017 6:41am Mar 16, 2017 6:41am
Quoting gatorinla
s as a general rule u wait. all situations are unique. so as a the general rule wait for 50% minimum of the cluster range you're focusing on. if its a 1000 pip range before the break.. let it retrace 500 of the clusters range. less trading with a set risk of pips one could wait for more than the 500.. like 990 pips.. this is just an example of waiting for near risk.. u can do the same on any break using a like tf.. for instance if the cluster range is 25 pips then a L b/o.. you want it to retrace at least 25 above the b/o.. but the upper range is...
example of instead of continuing long, on the little rise. it retreated the 50%. allowing a entry 0601 or less entry. then it continued long..

larger tf ...near 0828 a possible short, if one thinks the high would hold. i think its still aimed to 108x. but now on the day, it needs to break 0828.. and if not it will drop.. or even if it does break that high, a better long may be waiting after 0828 break on a retrace. toward 0340 low.. usually 1.0584/1.0340 is the place..

i left out shorting to 0584 for a reason. i don't know if or when it would drop after breaking 0828. it usually would happen between 0829 and 1.1317.. so a good time to drop would probably be after that 1.1087/and before 1.1317..

i frankly don't know when it would drop or break 1.0828. or even if it will. 1087 is a normal retrace. subject to change and tweak. this is mostly based on 1087 triggering later pa.
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,597
  • Mar 16, 2017 7:29am Mar 16, 2017 7:29am
A hawkish BOE. More hawkish than most expected. Inflation is entering in full force. This will be the last meeting the BOE will have a free ride.

Only update from the BOE.

--> Rolling back short term outlook in Sterling* from Soft Sell to Neutral.

sisse


Quoting gatorinla
{quote} example of instead of continuing long, on the little rise. it retreated the 50%. allowing a entry 0601 or less entry. then it continued long.. larger tf ...near 0828 a possible short, if one thinks the high would hold. i think its still aimed to 108x.
Agree on the last micro move. That last flow was pretty simple TAwise especially with inline with expectations FED (no knee jerk reaction).

On the main move, we discussed last month the same and I haven't change anything so far in my view but rather make it even more complicate. Euro will need a very strong help to crack the current highs. We are stuck in the same choppy range all year long.

sisse

Quoting sisse
{quote} Ok a quick point of order just to put everything in perspective. We started nearly a year ago. From the very start of expectations to yesterday when we finally got 'the fact' confirmation on normalisation. This is the mid term chart update. Self-explanatory. Nothing to add except highlight ' WE HAVEN'T CHANGE THE ACTUAL TRADING RANGE MAP AT ALL !!!!"... {image} sisse
[quote=Pharm0r;9671378]lol goosebone, it can be frustrating at times. I've held 1.0800 for a month and half for an expected trip back to 1.04xx, and here I am within 80 pips of a stop out on what was a 300 pip winner.../quote]

A couple of points.

-> I am seeing in the previous pages is that some are struggling to manage positions. Some have move (thats v. good) from hyperactive trading to hibernation trading.

Trading is a dynamic process which has nothing to do on jumping in and out on every move. One of the key difference between successful and failed traders is the ability to adapt to market conditions and manage risk when things DON'T go to your 'ideal' no noise perfect flow for a swing.

Let me share the updated short term charts swings. This is the advanced chart we used to put all the points in a real live trading charts. I am sure I don't have to tell that the point is not to pinpoint where are the exact entries to the tick but rather highlight when and why the decisions are made from a r:r perspective.

Pay particular attention in how many times we took TP1 and now TP4 ..does it tell you anything?

Here is the exact same chart with the exact same levels we plotted back in September when we start mapping and trading FED DEC hikes.

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-> The second thing is about volatility and perspective in the trading range. I know it seems we move a lot up and down for many times in the 1.05x/ 1.07x in the last 3 months.

Do you know (as for today) the current Quarter is the third narrowest in the History of the Euro. What it's telling you knowing that we are talking about a final mid term swing.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,598
  • Mar 16, 2017 7:31am Mar 16, 2017 7:31am
The white vertical lines represent the yellen speech and nfp. On both occasions there was a short term eur/usd rally.
In my perception it seems like there was a hunt for liquidity while extending the recent highs post yellen and post nfp. If that would be the case then one would think that all the big boys would already be positioned to ride the leg down. But apparently that wasn't the case since we had another range extension/ liquidity hunt after the FOMC yesterday.
This is my perception of what has happened by looking at the charts and assuming that you chose your title in the context of positioning and playing with the big boys.
Or maybe i should say, the big boys playing with us?
yellen confirms hike+good nfp.PNG

This was only based on looking at the chart, i will look up the discussions in the thread regarding the events later when i have more time to see if i can find more clues.

Best regards,
Nik
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  • #148,599
  • Mar 16, 2017 7:57am Mar 16, 2017 7:57am
On board with all of that sisse-

I'm somewhere inbetween where sitting duck is, and comparing to the mid term map you posted. I just figured that the final trigger to break the range would be hikes confirmed. Perhaps had it been a double hike, then I'd have gotten what I expected.

That being said, I realize there's nothing to do here for my 1.08 trades but to continue holding. I probably would have been better served by putting a partial profit higher in the 1.05 range, my original was 1.04. Regardless, at this point I'll answer my own question, which would be yes- the failed shorts should consider joining the long reversos

For me in particular- its business as usual....hold and hold some more
  • #148,600
  • Mar 16, 2017 8:08am Mar 16, 2017 8:08am
Also, back to your mid term map....a few of the bullet points apply here for me

@1.08 entries (expensive tickets)
retail: lots of chop and noise. High risk of getting lost in translation
TA: good pullback for continuation up so expect lots of doubts as the legs will be tempting (in play)

@Trade the fact (in play)
retail: indicator traders will get hammered on the bread down (I don't trade indis but I see how they would be turning long now....)

based on all the evidence, it seems to me- that my mistake was misjudging the final trigger (yet to be determined)- but luckily, that's a forgivable mistake so long as I'm managing risk correctly and exercising patience
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