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The Really Useless Thread

  • #148,561
  • Mar 15, 2017 12:41pm Mar 15, 2017 12:41pm
Quoting mrcreosote
AU is going ballistic...
ACAD lined for solid play on this one with some heads up, AUD/gold/dollar/Oil, altough not pip wise outperforming, it is timing/RR/DD wise.
  • #148,562
  • Mar 15, 2017 12:49pm Mar 15, 2017 12:49pm
Quoting change
{quote} +1
+2
  • #148,563
  • Mar 15, 2017 1:07pm Mar 15, 2017 1:07pm
stopped @ 1.0725. Closed my remaining position from Feb. Learning experience, but wasted a month. Guess I shoulda closed those positions on 3/2. I thought we'd test the lows again at least once more.
  • #148,564
  • Mar 15, 2017 1:09pm Mar 15, 2017 1:09pm
Exit polls in The Netherlands now show a victory for the sitting liberal party (VVD), with 30 of the 75 required seats in the House. Wilders' party is in a tie with two other major parties. But for now, it seems the populists have lost the match.
  • #148,565
  • Edited 1:45pm Mar 15, 2017 1:10pm | Edited 1:45pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Bake play in. So far unrealized RR 1:5 lets see where it goes. {image} Also pumped nicely ACAD for momo play before Oil, this one could unwind more. Nice micro momo pops on equities, SPY pushing.
1:10 0.735 and taking that off full. ACAD still holding 70% from 0208 will track Brent 52.0 for make or fail for countinuation on this one tomorrow.

EDIT: WTI 48.9 taken out, closing ACAD long full.
  • #148,566
  • Mar 15, 2017 1:12pm Mar 15, 2017 1:12pm
Quoting sisse
Watch-out 1.087x for today ... sisse Second update from the FED. --> Confirming mid and long term outlook in DOLLAR in SOLID BUY sisse
Still holding...

Can you explain how Confirming mid and long term outlook in DOLLAR in SOLID BUY goes hand in hand with 1.0870 ? is it a zigzag play?

Sisse
Your knowledge, dedication, contribution and patience is amazing and exemplary .
On behalf of everyone here at this thread , and although you heard it many times before and will hear it many more times in the future,
THANK YOU SIR ! again and again

P.S I loved the game show theme we had going earlier with the multiple choice questions.
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  • #148,567
  • Mar 15, 2017 1:52pm Mar 15, 2017 1:52pm
slowslow where will we end
  • #148,568
  • Mar 15, 2017 2:43pm Mar 15, 2017 2:43pm
It feels like anything in 1.066 to 1.074 is basically a no-man's land now more than ever. A potential test of 1.087x would open up the chance to fade the break, the failed break or the extension. The zig-zag (5C) from 1.076 is still a valid place to short on the reverso play according to the iteration. If it extends to 1.09x and doesn't break, though, we're looking at a 140pip stop for roughly a 1:2 RR to close at 1.049. With so much uncertainty on the table with Euro elections, Trump, et al I am having a hard time seeing a pathway out of this incessant range...
  • #148,569
  • Mar 15, 2017 3:08pm Mar 15, 2017 3:08pm
And we are rolling.... plenty to update and talk but sisse will finish his drinks in the pub first .

Tracking Dutch elections before wrapping up a rather very important day in markets...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,570
  • Mar 15, 2017 3:13pm Mar 15, 2017 3:13pm
Quoting sisse
And we are rolling.... plenty to update and talk but sisse will finish his drinks in the pub first . Tracking Dutch elections before wrapping up a rather very important day in markets... sisse
Based on the current results, drinks are on me. People are counting the votes by hand this year, so final results can take a few hours more then other years...
  • #148,571
  • Mar 15, 2017 4:00pm Mar 15, 2017 4:00pm
Quoting sisse
and we are rolling.... Plenty to update and talk but sisse will finish his drinks in the pub first . Tracking dutch elections before wrapping up a rather very important day in markets... Sisse
important update

sisse is a he, expectations confirmed
  • #148,572
  • Mar 15, 2017 6:14pm Mar 15, 2017 6:14pm
So I guess the question now- for those that went short at all today (5B & 5D), now that we are stopped out, why were we stopped out?

Was it just a case of too many people in the boat so the boat sunk? (everyone expected hikes, so shorting was too obvious a play)

Also- do we join our friends that chose 5C for the reverso short @ 1.076x?

For those that went long- why'd you go long? Why do you think the shorts were stopped out? Perhaps you can help show us what we missed
  • #148,573
  • Mar 15, 2017 6:36pm Mar 15, 2017 6:36pm
Pharm0r,

I am not as educated here but my rational was the wrong hands would have to adjust based on inline and Hawkish expectations which would lead to a zig zag play up. I expected the move up to clear soft short hands and adjust for Bulls. I may be totally wrong.

I see why .087x is more impt than .084x. .087x is
at top of range and was slapped down hard compared to .084x. This is the final area to test before continuing downtrend. I believe if we can make it there before the BOE then we will see the reversal.

My 2 cents which may be incorrect.
  • #148,574
  • Mar 15, 2017 7:20pm Mar 15, 2017 7:20pm
Quick update on the iterations still open...

Quoting sisse
Eyes on NY. Draghi taking a very smart side on geopolitics and Brexit ....I must admit that Draghi has been extremely clear and witty for a technocrat today... Back to trading. sisse {quote} A quick update on the iteration all triggereed ... GL all Short @ 1.060x [check] -> TP1 1.046x -> TP2 1.035x -> STP 1.071x ---> Min r:r 1 : 1.5 For longs. A simple range we have a clearer entries and targets averages: Longs @ 1.057x [check] -> TP1 1.067x -> TP2 1.076x -> STP 1.047x --> Min r:r 1 : 1 sisse

Short @ 1.060x [check] -> TP1 1.046x -> TP2 1.035x -> STP 1.071x [check] ---> Min r:r 1 : 1.5

For longs. A simple range we have a clearer entries and targets averages:

Longs @ 1.057x [check] -> TP1 1.067x [check]-> TP2 1.076x -> STP 1.047x --> Min r:r 1 : 1


Quoting sisse
A very soft reaction so far with inline hikes that all knew for nearly 2 weeks. ...

+++ Opening final extra iteration for the FED ++++

"Mirror and Shadows. Playing with the big boys"


5A. Direct Long 1.063x[check] -> TP1 1.076x -> STP 1.058x -> +/-R:R 1:3


5B. Direct Short 1.063x [check]-> TP1 1.049x -> STP 1.068xx[check] -> +/- R:R 1:3

Rundoslav

goosebone

Pixie666

primejarvis


5C. ZigZag Long 1.063x [check]-> TP1 1.076x -> STP 1.058x -> REVERSO 1.076x -> TP2 1.049x -> STP2 1.081x Min +/-R:R 1:6

gazpacho

Xemat

chronical

IMARICH1

mayafx

ptoftangency

priceaction1

kayaker

nutts


5D. ZigZag Short 1.063x [check] -> TP1 1.049x -> STP 1.069x [check] -> REVERSO 1.049x -> TP2 1.07 -> STP2 1.044x Min +/-R:R 1:6

ashenv

Earleone

Grinsakh



Quoting Bud Foxx
{quote} Can you explain how Confirming mid and long term outlook in DOLLAR in SOLID BUY goes hand...
What a short term Euro move in the same range has to do with Dollar macro forecast for the next few Quarters? ...Monetary policy wise Dollar divergence with the rest of the majors is now huge and confirmed. Trump fiscal blow out coming and FED just confirmed at least 3 more hikes this year.... there is very little to none dovish expectations and macro numbers as per today.

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} would like to discuss how you came up with the coorelation break and normalisation finalization via FED/GOLD/Doller after the roll
Quoting Pharm0r
..., why were we stopped out? Was it just a case of too many people in the boat so the boat sunk? (everyone expected hikes, so shorting was too obvious a play) Also- do we join our friends that chose 5C for the reverso short @ 1.076x? For those that went long- why'd you go long? Why do you think the shorts were stopped out? Perhaps you can help show us what we missed
I know there are a lot of question open.

On the FA and market talk we will dig into details and implications in the morning and during the rest of the week. On the iterations and trading part we will go point by point tomorrow but for now just a quick call to perspective: We haven't even move out of the same short term range we have been chopping around all year long....things will get clearer both in charts and the explanations in a few.

mirror

ˈmirər/

noun

plural noun: mirrors


1. a reflective surface, now typ...


2. something regarded as accurately representing something else.


shadow

ˈSHadō/

noun

plural noun: shadows


1. a dark area or s...

2. used in reference to proximity, ominous oppressiveness, or sadness and gloom.


We'll talk tomorrow.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,575
  • Mar 15, 2017 7:20pm Mar 15, 2017 7:20pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Pharm0r, I am not as educated here but my rational was the wrong hands would have to adjust based on inline and Hawkish expectations which would lead to a zig zag play up. I expected the move up to clear soft short hands and adjust for Bulls. I may be totally wrong. I see why .087x is more impt than .084x. .087x is at top of range and was slapped down hard compared to .084x. This is the final area to test before continuing downtrend. I believe if we can make it there before the BOE then we will see the reversal. My 2 cents which may be incorrect....
I´ve been following this usefull thread since last year. Had to read back posts from january 2015 to grasp fundamental concepts. Your conversations with sisses were enlightening to say the least. Now, I would have picked 5C taking into account the market expected more hawkish statements and, usually, once expectations turn into facts PA goes the other direction.
  • #148,576
  • Mar 15, 2017 8:28pm Mar 15, 2017 8:28pm
Quoting sisse
Quick update on the iterations still open... {quote} Short @ 1.060x [check] -> TP1 1.046x -> TP2 1.035x -> STP 1.071x [check] ---> Min r:r 1 : 1.5 For longs. A simple range we have a clearer entries and targets averages: Longs @ 1.057x [check] -> TP1 1.067x [check]-> TP2 1.076x -> STP 1.047x --> Min r:r 1 : 1 {quote} +++ Opening final extra iteration for the FED ++++ "Mirror and Shadows. Playing with the big boys" 5A. Direct Long 1.063x[check] -> TP1 1.076x -> STP 1.058x -> +/-R:R 1:3 5B. Direct Short 1.063x [check]-> TP1 1.049x -> STP 1.068xx[check]...
Heavy.
Well personally I'm hoping I reach peak wrong at some near point in 2017, which is rapidly turning into my very own Year of Wrong (teed off by us elections and hasn't stopped since). It's getting to the point where if I want to turn left driving home I just go right.
The routine has become, however tight the knot in my bloomers gets about which way this thing is going, up or down, sideways, momentum, capitulation, levels upon levels, incoming movers shakers, aaargh!......in the end sisse, Pharmor or someone here zooms the wide angle out and I realize we haven't moved a freaking inch the whole time. I dust off, and try to get the good entry again.
Same levels, same trades, same voices in my head, same all.
  • #148,577
  • Mar 15, 2017 8:42pm Mar 15, 2017 8:42pm
lol goosebone, it can be frustrating at times. I've held 1.0800 for a month and half for an expected trip back to 1.04xx, and here I am within 80 pips of a stop out on what was a 300 pip winner

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  • #148,578
  • Mar 15, 2017 9:59pm Mar 15, 2017 9:59pm
Quoting Pharm0r
lol goosebone, it can be frustrating at times. I've held 1.0800 for a month and half for an expected trip back to 1.04xx, and here I am within 80 pips of a stop out on what was a 300 pip winner https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOeKidp-iWo
Even i was holding it 1.081x but its sometime really frustrating i was assuming that when the boat is overloaded the big boys are are not going to take the direction but still holding 2 positions from 1.081x ... got S/o at BE 4 positions ... but will reload once the direction is resumed .... the point is where is my 300+ pips
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,579
  • Mar 15, 2017 10:19pm Mar 15, 2017 10:19pm
And we are in the golden zone for the USDx . Bounce of fib 23.6 duris AS. Fighting with the bottom of the channel. Shake or break.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,580
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:48pm Mar 15, 2017 11:48pm
Quoting Pharm0r
lol goosebone, it can be frustrating at times. I've held 1.0800 for a month and half for an expected trip back to 1.04xx, and here I am within 80 pips of a stop out on what was a 300 pip winner https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOeKidp-iWo
Reading Livermore at the moment (another gem from the @Fool book of the month club). Sitting tight. That's the test of your strength in this game. I think you are doing it right. 8 handle was the entry imo.
I let it pass me by (inner chicken). Got in at my comfort zone aka mediocre tickets. Without spelling out each step since then (some get that flag thing by their username for their 'impact', mine is more like a yellow card for talking too much) suffice it to say once again, hindsight shows me where I strayed from the relatively sound rr calculations I started out with. Moral of that story could be summed up by "Slow down, sit tight." Kudos to you because they are lessons, it seems to me, that you learned a while ago. I may be too old a dog to learn new tricks, jury is still out on that. But I don't give up on anything til I have to.
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