I don’t think there is going to be any major surprises here, it is certain to go 25bp higher, so that is what I feel is going to be happening. But I will love to hear what experts or experienced guy here going to say. But for me it’s very clear thing and I don’t expect any surprises at all. In recent times, we have got many surprises but I don’t think it will be like that at all, but just remember it’s my view.
Joined Oct 2014
|
Status: Are you watching closely?
|283 Posts
I expect the Fed will raise 25bps.
For the reaction, it seems this rate increase is all but priced in. 90% priced in as 2 hours ago ( http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUSKBN16L1B6 ) so unfortunately, based on recent USD strength, it looks like a USD sell-off may occur upon the rate change.. triggering a lot of USD long's stops tomorrow. My opinion.
Joined Oct 2014
|
Status: Are you watching closely?
|283 Posts
Gold and USD are negatively correlated. For Gold to rally upon a Fed Rate Rise (USD Bullish move) the US Dollar would have to sell off. Longing Gold upon a Fed Rate hike is definitely a contrarian move.
Dec 2015: +25bps, Gold low of 1045.
Dec 2016: +25bps, Gold dipped to 1124 after FOMC.
Don't think there will be moves because of the 1.00% rate but maybe because of the press conference afterwards. Depends on Yellens outlook, be careful out there!
I expect the Fed will raise 25bps. For the reaction, it seems this rate increase is all but priced in. 90% priced in as 2 hours ago ( http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUSKBN16L1B6 ) so unfortunately, based on recent USD strength, it looks like a USD sell-off may occur upon the rate change.. triggering a lot of USD long's stops tomorrow. My opinion.
Ignored
why are people saying it's priced in? When I look at eur/usd it's been going up for a couple of weeks now. Meaning they've been selling dollar. So why is it priced in?
Anything can happen in FOREX. There's no 100% sure
Dec 2015: +25bps, Gold low of 1045.
Dec 2016: +25bps, Gold dipped to 1124 after FOMC
Since I am new into this, would you help me with the figures before the FOMC meeting in 2015 and 2016 both ? So that I can workout my trades accordingly
{quote} why are people saying it's priced in? When I look at eur/usd it's been going up for a couple of weeks now. Meaning they've been selling dollar. So why is it priced in?
@ Ryan420, you mentioned these figures :- Dec 2015: +25bps, Gold low of 1045. Dec 2016: +25bps, Gold dipped to 1124 after FOMC Since I am new into this, would you help me with the figures before the FOMC meeting in 2015 and 2016 both ? So that I can workout my trades accordingly
Any idea why USD drops as the FED increased rates by 25bp??????? i expect it to go up!! so why did it fall??
Ignored
Already priced in. No surprise. No new USD longs. Only long's exiting after the increase (selling) then USD sell stops firing off during the spread increase & counter movement.
{quote} Already priced in. No surprise. No new USD longs. Only long's exiting after the increase (selling) then USD sell stops firing off during the spread increase & counter movement.
