The Really Useless Thread

top:1.084x
flip: 1.063x
bottom: 1.035x

Top; 1,0720
flip; 1,0610
bottom; 1,0490

Top : 1.084x
Flip : 1.065x
Bottom : same

1. B
2. A

Im looking at Hike and god macro numbers w Hawkish tones. Depending on the language will be key on a ST and Mid Term swing down

Im expecting inline w expectations but not an overshoot in hikes just yet.


Could be either a zig zag play if just inline and direct if inline w Hawkish tones.

Zig zag: .062x -->.073x -->.0585 TP1-->.048xTP2
Direct: .062x-->.051xTP1 -->.041xTP2-->.032xTP3

2 more minutes and we close the levels.
To keep it simple and easy to follow. If you have more or less the same leves +/- 20 ticks just don't repost and just say the same.

Tops +/-20:
1.084x
1.078x
1.075x
1.072x

Flips +/-20:
1.067x
1.065x
1.061x
1.059x
1.051


Bottoms +/-20:
1.049x
1.045x
1.039x

GOOSEBONE I SEE YOU

You're not sitting this out!!

Top: 1.082
Flip: 1.051
Bottom: 1.045

Trying to catch up here in between cheesy tourist attractions with the fam. Wife thinks I'm booking a hotel on my phone right now so excuse the brief participation.
Expecting overshoot and pretty hawkish bull dollar events (a bit beyond market expectations) today. I like the ranges you guys got there. Mine are right inline with 750, 610, 490. Flop isn't expected but in that case I would think eu spikemageddon breaks the range top. (Chart posted a while ago) I'm loaded short (pricey tickets cuz I'm greedy) in accordance with my expectations for today. Good luck all. Gotta go cut off some 12 year olds in line for the zipper.

2A

Tops +/-20:
1.084x
1.078x
1.075x
1.072x

3c. Inline w expectations but zig zag UP first.

I think due to others being on wrong side of the market.

Top: .084x
Flip: .06x
Bottom:.036x

3c
plus minus same levels

3c and same I would say

1B
2A
3C

T 1.074x
F 1.059x
B 1.043x

Ok.
On the bottom we have a clear consensus around 1.049x although we have one as low as 1.039x. I am averaging at at 1.048x for the low ( I agree)

On the top we have a relative wide range. The average is at 1.076x [I strongly disagree]. In my books the top comes @1.087x.

On the flop. This is all over the place. WE wont go in details right now live but some basic price action concepts seem to be lacking in some calls but strangely or not averaging all calls we get around 1.061x so we'll set it there for the iteration. [Flip comes at 1.057x for today in my case].

sisse

>>>>-----------------------<<<<

Q1: In no more than 1 line What are market expectation for today? ...not yours, not mine, the general ones. No levels no TA here ...

1A. Hikes (workingforex, Earleone, mayafx, Rundoslav, change, ashenv,primejarvis, Pixie666)
1B. Hikes + Hawkish via good macro numbers. (ptoftangency, KiNgEdwarD, nutts, ptoftangency, Pharm0r, Grinsakh, IMARICH1, Xemat )

>>>>-----------------------<<<<

Q2: If those are the expectations what will be the real outcome for "inline with expectations", "overshoot" and "undershoot". Choose only your personal bias (doesn't mean you need to be right or wrong). Its just your personal perception with the information you got.

2A. Inline = Hike 0.25 with an upbeat tone on the economy and with inflation inline. (primejarvis, ashenv, Fadhl, Pharm0r, workingforex, aldahman, change, Earleone,gazpacho, mayafx, mayafx, IMARICH1, Xemat )
2B. Overshoot = Hike +0.50 with an upbeat tone on the economy and concerns about inflation picking up too fast (nutts, Grinsakh).
2C. Undershoot = A flop (no hike) and/or a rather v soft outlook in the economy with inflation picking up. (hilmy83)

>>>>-----------------------<<<<

Q3: What would you expect the flow to be according to those expectations and outcomes. No TA, no levels, no indicators, price this or that ..

3A. Overshoot = Direct hit down as Hikes (double) and / or super hawkish FED. Double whammy and markets will start digesting fresh expectations.( nutts)
3B. Inline with expectations = Direct down play because of the current hike to test the lows at least. Wipe out and exhaustion leg. (KiNgEdwarD, Pharm0r)
3C. Inline with expectations = ZigZag up and down we go. Hikes are already confirmed since last 2 weeks. 'The Fact' will be the perfect opp to load higher and/or to clear all the remaining short Dollar hands (mayafx, ashenv, Earleone, gazpacho, IMARICH1, change, Xemat)
3C1 Inline with expectations = ZigZag down and up we go. Hikes are already confirmed since last 2 weeks. 'The Fact' will be the perfect opp to clear all shorts and load on the lows (Fadhl, Grinsakh)
3D. Undershoot = Direct hit up as markets will be caught in the wrong side. Fast and furious short lived leg with shorts covering on a rush (DexterMorgan).

>>>>-----------------------<<<

Q4: Despite your bias and expectations. Can you define in 3 levels/area what will be the TOP, BOTTOM and FLIP (the point when you think one side will have a better odds than the other according to your view)

We need only 3 levels so keep it to:

Top: 1.076x
Flip: 1.061x
Bottom: 1.048x

>>>>-----------------------<<<

Ok we got:

-> Market expectations [check]
-> What would be the outcome for Inline, Overshoot and Undershoots [check]
-> Potential Direction flows [check]
-> The map defined [check]

We got all what we need except the most important factor in all RISK.

I leave this question open for each to calculate the proper levels depending on the selection of your direction, flow and actual outcome. For the purpose of the iteration:

Q5: Choose your poison time...its open for 12 minutes only.

5A. Direct Long 1.063x -> TP1 1.076x -> STP 1.058x -> +/-R:R 1:3
5B. Direct Short 1.063x -> TP1 1.049x -> STP 1.068xx -> +/- R:R 1:3
5C. ZigZag Long 1.063x -> TP1 1.076x -> STP 1.058x -> REVERSO 1.076x -> TP2 1.049x -> STP2 1.081x Min +/-R:R 1:6
5D. ZigZag Short 1.063x -> TP1 1.049x -> STP 1.069x -> REVERSO 1.049x -> TP2 1.07 -> STP2 1.081x Min +/-R:R 1:6

sisse

Top: 1.07
F: .059
B: .048

5C

5D. ZigZag Short 1.063x -> TP1 1.049x -> STP 1.069x -> REVERSO 1.049x -> TP2 1.07 -> STP2 1.081x Min +/-R:R 1:6

5B

5b please