The Really Useless Thread

3B

2A for me

They can on purpose, but FED has shown to be slow and methodical when attacking rate hikes, and consistently behind the curve (I can only assume on purpose) They've been very deliberate in preparing the market for hikes, so a surprise of any form would be highly unusual compared to what we've seen thus far. They've also suggested letting the economy overheat, we aren't there yet.

I would add this option if you don't mind: Zigzag down then up, which will be my preferred option.

2-a 3-c

3A

2A
3C

3C

3C. Inline with expectations = ZigZag

3C

Ok, I'll take 3D, just for fun.

Daily close above 1.08.

Ok things a bit more complicate now and the opinions a bit more disperse ....I would give me opinion on this in a min to avoid bias the answers.... come on lets go we have 15 minutes to wrap this up and get ready.

sisse

>>>>-----------------------<<<<

Q1: In no more than 1 line What are market expectation for today? ...not yours, not mine, the general ones. No levels no TA here ...

1A. Hikes (workingforex, Earleone, mayafx, Rundoslav, change, ashenv,primejarvis, Pixie666)
1B. Hikes + Hawkish via good macro numbers. (ptoftangency, KiNgEdwarD, nutts, ptoftangency, Pharm0r, Grinsakh, IMARICH1 )

>>>>-----------------------<<<<

Q2: If those are the expectations what will be the real outcome for "inline with expectations", "overshoot" and "undershoot". Choose only your personal bias (doesn't mean you need to be right or wrong). Its just your personal perception with the information you got.

2A. Inline = Hike 0.25 with an upbeat tone on the economy and with inflation inline. (primejarvis, ashenv, Fadhl, Pharm0r, workingforex, aldahman, change, Earleone,gazpacho, mayafx, mayafx, IMARICH1 )
2B. Overshoot = Hike +0.50 with an upbeat tone on the economy and concerns about inflation picking up too fast (nutts, Grinsakh).
2C. Undershoot = A flop (no hike) and/or a rather v soft outlook in the economy with inflation picking up. (hilmy83)

>>>>-----------------------<<<<

Q3: What would you expect the flow to be according to those expectations and outcomes. No TA, no levels, no indicators, price this or that ..

3A. Overshoot = Direct hit down as Hikes (double) and / or super hawkish FED. Double whammy and markets will start digesting fresh expectations.( nutts)
3B. Inline with expectations = Direct down play because of the current hike to test the lows at least. Wipe out and exhaustion leg. (KiNgEdwarD, Pharm0r)
3C. Inline with expectations = ZigZag up and down we go. Hikes are already confirmed since last 2 weeks. 'The Fact' will be the perfect opp to load higher and/or to clear all the remaining short Dollar hands (mayafx, ashenv, Earleone, gazpacho)
3C1 Inline with expectations = ZigZag down and up we go. Hikes are already confirmed since last 2 weeks. 'The Fact' will be the perfect opp to clear all shorts and load on the lows (Fadhl, Grinsakh)
3D. Undershoot = Direct hit up as markets will be caught in the wrong side. Fast and furious short lived leg with shorts covering on a rush (DexterMorgan).

>>>>-----------------------<<<<

Ok we got:

-> Market expectations [check]
-> What would be the outcome for Inline, Overshoot and Undershoots [check]
-> Potential Direction flows [check]

Q4: Despite your bias and expectations. Can you define in 3 levels/area what will be the TOP, BOTTOM and FLIP (the point when you think one side will have a better odds than the other according to your view)

We need only 3 levels so keep it to:

Top: 1.xxxx
Flip: 1.xxxx
Bottom: 1.xxxx

We'll try to find if possible a consensus like the last time. Lets move quickly as we are running out of time. 5 Minutes for this one as we have 2 more questions.

sisse

Top: 1.0780
Flip: 1.0675
Bottom: 1.0490

top 1.075xx
flip 1.061xx

bottom 1.045xx

Why would you load the lows with a sell outlook short and medium term?

3B preferred. Not so sure the method matter though so long as expectations are inline and no (bad) surprises.

3b and the bottom 1.025x (bottom)... No other levels

Top: 1.072
Flip: 1.059
Bottom: 1.049

Im coming late to the party: 1B, 2B, 3C1, T 1.08x, F 1.052x, B 1.049x

To keep it simple and easy to follow. If you have more or less the same leves +/- 20 ticks just don't repost and just say the same.

Tops +/-20:
1.084x
1.078x
1.075x
1.072x

Flips +/-20:
1.067x
1.065x
1.061x
1.059x


Bottoms +/-20:
1.049x
1.045x
1.039x

1.076 t
1.065 f
1.039 b