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The Really Useless Thread

  • #148,461
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:04am Mar 15, 2017 11:04am
Quoting sisse
...and that was it for the day till the main course of the Quarter. This is going to be a rather interesting flow today. Very advanced trades but will be perfect live environment to pretty much put all the discussions in a real live environment... We'll try to build it quickly live on a series of questions so it easier to track and hopefully bring some interesting discussions, $$$ and/or aha /fck off sisse moments for those trading live. For those who want jump in you need to have the final answer 30 minutes before the FED and like the last 3 extra...
25 bps rate hike is market expectation.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,462
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:06am Mar 15, 2017 11:06am
Quoting sisse
...and that was it for the day till the main course of the Quarter. This is going to be a rather interesting flow today. Very advanced trades but will be perfect live environment to pretty much put all the discussions in a real live environment... We'll try to build it quickly live on a series of questions so it easier to track and hopefully bring some interesting discussions, $$$ and/or aha /fck off sisse moments for those trading live. For those who want jump in you need to have the final answer 30 minutes before the FED and like the last 3 extra...
a hike is expected but of what degree? .25% and hawkish
  • #148,463
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:07am Mar 15, 2017 11:07am
It will be hike in a range of market expectations
  • #148,464
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:13am Mar 15, 2017 11:13am
expected range goes from 50 bps hike march and hints on 3 total hikes this year to no hike in march and two hikes later this year, everything less would be greatly disappointing

Main consensus is 25bps hike plus 2 later this year
  • #148,465
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:18am Mar 15, 2017 11:18am
25bp hike, no dot plot change expected (based on FED being cautious for going on 2yrs. now) revised inflation assessment.
  • #148,466
  • Edited 11:40am Mar 15, 2017 11:18am | Edited 11:40am
Ok not really difficult this time. Not even in the thread we can find somebody with a different view on these expectations.

Market consensus is on hikes since last 2 week. Hawkish and the degree for the next round of hikes is a bit more split between the hawks that are calling for a double hike today to >3 hikes this year to the very dovish that expect 0.25 hike will be more than enough until the end of the summer.

Quoting sisse
+++ Opening final extra iteration for the FED ++++ "Mirror and Shadows. Playing with the big boys" ...
Q1: In no more than 1 line What are market expectation for today? ...not yours, not mine, the general ones. No levels no TA here ...

1A. Hikes (workingforex, Earleone, mayafx, Rundoslav, change, ashenv,primejarvis, Pixie666)
1B. Hikes + Hawkish via good macro numbers. (ptoftangency, KiNgEdwarD, nutts, ptoftangency, Pharm0r)

>>>>-----------------------<<<<


Q2: If those are the expectations what will be the real outcome for "inline with expectations", "overshoot" and "undershoot". Choose only your personal bias (doesn't mean you need to be right or wrong). Its just your personal perception with the information you got.

2A. Inline = Hike 0.25 with an upbeat tone on the economy and with inflation inline. (primejarvis, ashenv, Fadhl, Pharm0r, workingforex)
2B. Overshoot = Hike +0.50 with an upbeat tone on the economy and concerns about inflation picking up too fast (nutts).
2C. Undershoot = A flop (no hike) and/or a rather v soft outlook in the economy with inflation picking up.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,467
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:21am Mar 15, 2017 11:21am
1A and 2a ... If I am not late
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,468
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:22am Mar 15, 2017 11:22am
2A.
  • #148,469
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:24am Mar 15, 2017 11:24am
1b
2b
  • #148,470
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:24am Mar 15, 2017 11:24am
2A
  • #148,471
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:31am Mar 15, 2017 11:31am
Quoting sisse
Ok not really difficult this time. Not even in the thread we can find somebody with a different view on these expectations. Market consensus is on hikes since last 2 week. Hawkish and the degree for the next round of hikes is a bit more split between the hawks that are calling for a double hike today to >3 hikes this year to the very dovish that expect 0.25 hike will be more than enough until the end of the summer. {quote} Q1: In no more than 1 line What are market expectation for today? ...not yours, not mine, the general ones. No levels no TA...
2A
  • #148,472
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:36am Mar 15, 2017 11:36am
1B and 2A.

The FED would likely choose "multiple hikes" over a single "double hike".
  • #148,473
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:36am Mar 15, 2017 11:36am
2A I would go with
  • #148,474
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:36am Mar 15, 2017 11:36am
Quoting sisse
Ok not really difficult this time. Not even in the thread we can find somebody with a different view on these expectations. Market consensus is on hikes since last 2 week. Hawkish and the degree for the next round of hikes is a bit more split between the hawks that are calling for a double hike today to >3 hikes this year to the very dovish that expect 0.25 hike will be more than enough until the end of the summer. {quote} Q1: In no more than 1 line What are market expectation for today? ...not yours, not mine, the general ones. No levels no TA...
2a
  • #148,475
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:36am Mar 15, 2017 11:36am
1A,
Quoting sisse
Ok not really difficult this time. Not even in the thread we can find somebody with a different view on these expectations. Market consensus is on hikes since last 2 week. Hawkish and the degree for the next round of hikes is a bit more split between the hawks that are calling for a double hike today to >3 hikes this year to the very dovish that expect 0.25 hike will be more than enough until the end of the summer. {quote} Q1: In no more than 1 line What are market expectation for today? ...not yours, not mine, the general ones. No levels no TA...
  • #148,476
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:39am Mar 15, 2017 11:39am
Quoting sisse
Ok not really difficult this time. Not even in the thread we can find somebody with a different view on these expectations. Market consensus is on hikes since last 2 week. Hawkish and the degree for the next round of hikes is a bit more split between the hawks that are calling for a double hike today to >3 hikes this year to the very dovish that expect 0.25 hike will be more than enough until the end of the summer. {quote} Q1: In no more than 1 line What are market expectation for today? ...not yours, not mine, the general ones. No levels no TA...
ok fine

i'll bet that guy

2c
  • #148,477
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:40am Mar 15, 2017 11:40am
2a
  • #148,478
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:43am Mar 15, 2017 11:43am
2A
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,479
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:44am Mar 15, 2017 11:44am
Quoting sisse
Ok not really difficult this time. Not even in the thread we can find somebody with a different view on these expectations. Market consensus is on hikes since last 2 week. Hawkish and the degree for the next round of hikes is a bit more split between the hawks that are calling for a double hike today to >3 hikes this year to the very dovish that expect 0.25 hike will be more than enough until the end of the summer. {quote} Q1: In no more than 1 line What are market expectation for today? ...not yours, not mine, the general ones. No levels no TA...
2A
  • #148,480
  • Edited 11:57am Mar 15, 2017 11:45am | Edited 11:57am
Ok. Again nobody expect a flop. I agree as most for today. However, I wouldnt discount and overshoot (2b) odds are low but FED can overshoot on purpose to rather quickly set straight the monetary policy for the year and allow the market to adjust rather soon instead of abuse the low rates in and already manic mode and with very strong numbers that are borderline on entering in overheat mode in the real economy.

In order of probabilities for today:

2A inline (90%)
2B overshoot (8%)
2C undershot (2%).

Quoting sisse
Market consensus is on hikes since last 2 week. ..

>>>>-----------------------<<<<


Q1: In no more than 1 line What are market expectation for today? ...not yours, not mine, the general ones. No levels no TA here ...

1A. Hikes (workingforex, Earleone, mayafx, Rundoslav, change, ashenv,primejarvis, Pixie666)
1B. Hikes + Hawkish via good macro numbers. (ptoftangency, KiNgEdwarD, nutts, ptoftangency, Pharm0r)

>>>>-----------------------<<<<


Q2: If those are the expectations what will be the real outcome for "inline with expectations", "overshoot" and "undershoot". Choose only your personal bias (doesn't mean you need to be right or wrong). Its just your personal perception with the information you got.

2A. Inline = Hike 0.25 with an upbeat tone on the economy and with inflation inline. (primejarvis, ashenv, Fadhl, Pharm0r, workingforex, aldahman, change, Earleone,gazpacho, mayafx, mayafx)
2B. Overshoot = Hike +0.50 with an upbeat tone on the economy and concerns about inflation picking up too fast (nutts).
2C. Undershoot = A flop (no hike) and/or a rather v soft outlook in the economy with inflation picking up. (hilmy83)

>>>>-----------------------<<<<


Ok we got:

-> Market expectations [check]
-> What would be the outcome for Inline, Overshoot and Undershoots [check]

Q3: What would you expect the flow to be according to those expectations and outcomes. No TA, no levels, no indicators, price this or that ..

3A. Overshoot = Direct hit down as Hikes (double) and / or super hawkish FED. Double whammy and markets will start digesting fresh expectations.( nutts)
3B. Inline with expectations = Direct down play because of the current hike to test the lows at least. Wipe out and exhaustion leg. (KiNgEdwarD)
3C. Inline with expectations = ZigZag up and down we go. Hikes are already confirmed since last 2 weeks. 'The Fact' will be the perfect opp to load higher and/or to clear all the remaining short Dollar hands (mayafx, ashenv, Earleone)
3C1 Inline with expectations = ZigZag down and up we go. Hikes are already confirmed since last 2 weeks. 'The Fact' will be the perfect opp to clear all shorts and load on the lows (Fadhl, gazpacho)
3D. Undershoot = Direct hit up as markets will be caught in the wrong side. Fast and furious short lived leg with shorts covering on a rush (DexterMorgan).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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