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The Really Useless Thread

  • #148,441
  • Mar 14, 2017 2:48pm Mar 14, 2017 2:48pm
Quoting yg10
{quote} Gold is taking beating during last two weeks, from Feb-28 (~126xx).
it was expected with rising SP500 and March FOMC... just wondering when the reversal will happen. Especially with Article 50 in Britain about to kick off, European elections, and Trump starting to face some political backlash with his health bill on all ends.. wanted to see everyone's opinion on Gold - sell vs buy at these levels
  • #148,442
  • Mar 14, 2017 3:09pm Mar 14, 2017 3:09pm
Quoting xitzfux
Gold is taking a beating today.. wondering if its just pricing in tomorrow's rate hike..
you haven't seen JNUG today, it's destruction derby bulls got wrecked today.
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  • #148,443
  • Mar 14, 2017 3:27pm Mar 14, 2017 3:27pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} you haven't seen JNUG today, it's destruction derby bulls got wrecked today. {image}
Right, and probably some heavy profit taking from bears near the close /5.7-7.0). Lets see 3.5 other than that nothing decent on it yet. If we get 3.5 considering the environment on asset this might be setting for momentum play on downside.
  • #148,444
  • Mar 14, 2017 3:36pm Mar 14, 2017 3:36pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Right, and probably some heavy profit taking from bears near the close /5.7-7.0). Lets see 3.5 other than that nothing decent on it yet. If we get 3.5 considering the environment on asset this might be setting for momentum play on downside.
thought about loading up some gold via futures and when I saw weekly silver price chart this idea got totally smashed. )))
  • #148,445
  • Mar 14, 2017 3:49pm Mar 14, 2017 3:49pm
A very good day for trading with plenty of action across the board.

--> Highlight of the day come from OIL which coincidentally (not really) was the only one that didn't play ball the last few days. First signs of free riding (we are going to have plenty of free riders in all fronts with the current wave of protectionism around the world far beyond OIL) in the OPEC agreement with the Saudis pretty much sending a clear signal that they are a 'single club' member with some minor partners having to accept whatever is already decided ....

--> Important news as it's the first time in months that we have a major event in the supply side. Things are going to get a lot more complicate from now on in OIL. Only major global risk (war and conflict risk via Trump etc) and/or a big push from the US and EU economic side will unlock the current highs to $63.xx and beyond but the early winds are actually blowing to the other side via Brexit/European politics and Protectionism ....at least for now.

-->Considering a change of mid term outlook in the upcoming days. For now waiting for more data and confirmation before taking action....flat as a pancake in OIL. Very well done all that rode shorts from the highs ...here empty handed and not interested in chasing anything at these levels.

On the FX board, no surprises across the boards since last Friday. As expected Euro and Sterling on the driver seat all day long but it will be officially over on the roll today where Dollar and Treasuries will be the King across all markets and asset classes until the FED.

sisse

Quoting Grinsakh
{quote} ....we might get compression, there will be support on 46.5x. So these are levels and areas to look for load, unless something changes in FA (I'm unable to track that), like next OPEC meeting (?) in May. {image} If I will be right or at least close to it, I will try to suggest trade with some proper r:r =), which we can discuss further on.
Market has spoken. You got the answer now.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,446
  • Mar 14, 2017 4:02pm Mar 14, 2017 4:02pm
Quoting sisse
A very good day for trading with plenty of action across the board. --> Highlight of the day come from OIL which coincidentally (not really) was the only one that didn't play ball the last few days. First signs of free riding (we are going to have plenty of free riders in all fronts with the current wave of protectionism around the world far beyond OIL) in the OPEC agreement with the Saudis pretty much sending a clear signal that they are a 'single club' member with some minor partners having to accept whatever is already decided .... --> Important...
Trump and Asia would possibly unlock the biggest Oil rally ever seen (Iraq as mark) probably due to routes and supply distances/security, but thats not in play at all yet would by my guess.
Aside from that on reality side, Saudis were baked deal since months ago (+few years) on diplomacy and petrodollar side, Russia was bit more surprising, no significant stealth supply there, maybe pointing to who is the real weak player in this. Reactionary play is usually set by weaker player. If so no surprises there.
  • #148,447
  • Mar 14, 2017 5:06pm Mar 14, 2017 5:06pm
...and we are rolling around 1,061x before FED. Surprise Surprise !!!! no no not really ... I hope there is no even one marginal doubt or question this time on why this level, why today ...

We have a major day in the US tomorrow with a plethora of reports coming. Expecting some marginal action in the European opening and from there after, US in absolute full control.

Plenty to talk ad action coming in the next few sessions.

sisse

Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Trump and Asia would possibly unlock the biggest Oil rally ever seen (Iraq as mark) probably due to routes and supply distances/security, but thats not in play at all yet would by my guess. Aside from that on reality side, Saudis were baked deal since months ago (+few years) on diplomacy and petrodollar side, Russia was bit more surprising, no significant stealth supply there, maybe pointing to who is the real weak player in this. Reactionary play is usually set by weaker player. If so no surprises there.
$48.0xx is the only and rain maker level in play until the summer. $48.xx -> $63.xx if Europe holds elections as the EU economy looks ready to have a decent run (and also better bang for the buck after FED hikes in Equities) and Trump keep his Twitter account quiet with Exxon in full control of US foreign policy....after that is risk, risk and more risk for later in the year.

Anything else in the short term, is wide neutral range for a quick test $40.3x ...both sides are open & tradable, thus Neutral mid term outlook as per today ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,448
  • Mar 15, 2017 2:15am Mar 15, 2017 2:15am
[quote=NMZee;9664648]
Quoting primejarvis
That's all for today ... Waiting for fed until then nothing to see .... Very expensive tickets still available but still a valid one to load ... Myself locked and Hi Primejarvis, expensive tickets.? Price can go anywhere 200 pips up or down. Entry doesnt seem so expensive atm. You are loaded, short ??
Yes I am short , we are trading the most and the most complex leg right now and best time to learn how to position for mid and long term trades .... Anyways expecting a very high volatility during the fed meet with both side in play but following the trend right now is the best option for my trading style... A clean sweep is in my book
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,449
  • Mar 15, 2017 2:21am Mar 15, 2017 2:21am
Quoting sisse
...and we are rolling around 1,061x before FED. Surprise Surprise !!!! no no not really ... I hope there is no even one marginal doubt or question this time on why this level, why today ...
very useful and tradable (and traded) information. A little extra flow i've learned to trade following this thread on nearly every major data release.
  • #148,450
  • Mar 15, 2017 3:12am Mar 15, 2017 3:12am
Election day here in The Netherlands. Polls still show a small win for the liberal party that's currently part in the coalition. But it will be a very close call with the right wing populists. Exit polls at 9pm local time.

The thing is: nobody wants to form a coalition with the populist party. If they win, it will be a long long time vefore we have a new government. And the other parties should have a majority, without the populists.
  • #148,451
  • Mar 15, 2017 3:33am Mar 15, 2017 3:33am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Short term target on UK filled on 739X done with longs, now pushing some shorts on CAD after clearout looking for some stronger squeeze (GCAD/ECAD). Tracking 50.85 on Brent as possible addon to CAD short, looking for make or fail there. {image} EDIT: Extending the target this time, GU 2150 poped and held, extending GCAD to 643X, locking some in on inital target. Saudis aparently pointing addon in supply going in storages not going to hit markets....yeah right. Will consider adding ACAD as momentum play from tomorrow onwards. On side note,...
Still holding, extended target done 643X, Oil/GBP still both in play could perform some more, adding second long 6455 with tight stop.

EU ill try playing some longs if it gets entry ahead of FED in case of baked scenario, 650-6 as interest zone.
  • #148,452
  • Mar 15, 2017 4:30am Mar 15, 2017 4:30am
Slightly miss in UK inflation related numbers and that will clear the European morning at the top of the hour until early NY.

sisse

Quoting eborn
Election day here in The Netherlands. Polls still show a small win for the liberal party that's currently part in the coalition. But it will be a very close call with the right wing populists. Exit polls at 9pm local time. The thing is: nobody wants to form a coalition with the populist party. If they win, it will be a long long time vefore we have a new government. And the other parties should have a majority, without the populists.
Indeed. We didn't really mention much about Dutch election on the background for today.

Until last Friday the extreme right party was getting hammered in the polls and not only lose the first place (in a very complex multiparty system) but tumble as low as not even needed to form any potential form of coalition in government. However, nationalist and populist, like a bad cancer, spread very fast and destroy everything around.

Turkey (a quintessential case of a nationalist, populist but from the left...same s$$% that those from the right in my books) this week reopened the hate rhetoric and left the door slightly open for as sudden change in today election.

Technically, the neonazis/extreme right can't win a majority neither form a government by themselves (worst case scenario for markets and world and European peace) and the only surprise on expectations will be if Wilder party get completed wipe out to a small minority sending screaming signals that Europe is going to take the lead and its coming back to their senses.

Any other outcome will be inline with nothing new but more warnings that the populist/nationalist, protectionist and extremist cancer is spreading across the world...but that will for later in the year for trading...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,453
  • Mar 15, 2017 7:06am Mar 15, 2017 7:06am
Quoting sisse
Until last Friday the extreme right party was getting hammered in the polls and not only lose the first place (in a very complex multiparty system) but tumble as low as not even needed to form any potential form of coalition in government.
28 parties in total this year are 'fighting' for the 150 seats in the House of Representatives. The highest number of parties in years, which really shows how divided the system is. A lot of people are still undecided what to vote, so everything is possible. In the polls, none of the parties have more then 25-30 seats. This will require a coalition of at least 4 parties for a majority of 75 seats. Or 5 parties if Wilders' populist party is held out of the coalition.
  • #148,454
  • Mar 15, 2017 8:29am Mar 15, 2017 8:29am
Good numbers from the US and we are ready for a rather very quick US opening today before entering in no man land until the FED. In the Euro, we are sitting to the tick at 1.061x. We'll open the FED discussion right after ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,455
  • Mar 15, 2017 10:55am Mar 15, 2017 10:55am
...and that was it for the day till the main course of the Quarter.

This is going to be a rather interesting flow today.

Very advanced trades but will be perfect live environment to pretty much put all the discussions in a real live environment... We'll try to build it quickly live on a series of questions so it easier to track and hopefully bring some interesting discussions, $$$ and/or aha /fck off sisse moments for those trading live.

For those who want jump in you need to have the final answer 30 minutes before the FED and like the last 3 extra iterations, winner takes all and will be added to the list (if you are not already in) for the next stage....

+++ Opening final extra iteration for the FED ++++

"Mirror and Shadows. Playing with the big boys"


Lets go in order with the map and playing field so instead of posting the FA/TA and flow outlook for the play we try to build it live so anyone interested can build it in their own terms and trading view....let's go:

Q1: In no more than 1 line What are market expectation for today? ...not yours, not mine, the general ones. No levels no TA here ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,456
  • Mar 15, 2017 10:57am Mar 15, 2017 10:57am
Quoting sisse
...and that was it for the day till the main course of the Quarter. This is going to be a rather interesting flow today. Very advanced trades but will be perfect live environment to pretty much put all the discussions in a real live environment... We'll try to build it quickly live on a series of questions so it easier to track and hopefully bring some interesting discussions, $$$ and/or aha /fck off sisse moments for those trading live. For those who want jump in you need to have the final answer 30 minutes before the FED and like the last 3 extra...
We will have a hike - general expectation!
  • #148,457
  • Mar 15, 2017 10:59am Mar 15, 2017 10:59am

+++ Opening final extra iteration for the FED ++++

"Mirror and Shadows. Playing with the big boys"


Q1: In no more than 1 line What are market expectation for today? ...not yours, not mine, the general ones. No levels no TA here ...

1A. Hikes (workingforex, Earleone, mayafx, Rundoslav)
2A. Hikes + Hawkish via good macro numbers. (ptoftangency, KiNgEdwarD)

Keep it open for a few minutes for other views.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,458
  • Mar 15, 2017 10:59am Mar 15, 2017 10:59am
Hi guys, so here is my try for FED:

FA scenarions from most to least probable (according to me):

Market expects hike and some sort of upbeat macro projections and soft steepening of hike projections.

A.: hike + above market extectations (hawkish) FED via projections (macro+rates) =) gives to go ahead finally for the ST swing down.
B.: hike + soft upbeat FED on macro and rates front (inline)=) creates a zig-zag flow up before down.
C.: hike + bellow market expectations (dovish) projections =) another attack on top of the range.
D.: no hike = not expected. But completely distort the markets =) complete wipeout of shorts to the extreme of ST range.

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Would try to post the flow but gotta run to school and will be back just for the decision so apologies this time. Hopefully others will share
  • #148,459
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:03am Mar 15, 2017 11:03am
Quoting sisse
...and that was it for the day till the main course of the Quarter. This is going to be a rather interesting flow today. Very advanced trades but will be perfect live environment to pretty much put all the discussions in a real live environment... We'll try to build it quickly live on a series of questions so it easier to track and hopefully bring some interesting discussions, $$$ and/or aha /fck off sisse moments for those trading live. For those who want jump in you need to have the final answer 30 minutes before the FED and like the last 3 extra...
Market expectations: FED goes 25bps and hints at further hikes (2-3 more) this year

EDIT: and revised inflation forecast
  • #148,460
  • Mar 15, 2017 11:03am Mar 15, 2017 11:03am
Quoting sisse
...and that was it for the day till the main course of the Quarter. This is going to be a rather interesting flow today. Very advanced trades but will be perfect live environment to pretty much put all the discussions in a real live environment... We'll try to build it quickly live on a series of questions so it easier to track and hopefully bring some interesting discussions, $$$ and/or aha /fck off sisse moments for those trading live. For those who want jump in you need to have the final answer 30 minutes before the FED and like the last 3 extra...
Hikes ,hawkish fed via full employment/inflation
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
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