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AUD/USD

  • #100,981
  • Mar 13, 2017 10:35am Mar 13, 2017 10:35am
The aussie doing well as iron ore price shot up 5% today. But onces the market gets absorbs this the aud will head south.
Just remeber usa going to raise rates this week. All pairs vs usd wil fall
  • #100,982
  • Mar 13, 2017 10:41am Mar 13, 2017 10:41am
Quoting jpcashflow
The aussie doing well as iron ore price shot up 5% today. But onces the market gets absorbs this the aud will head south. Just remeber usa going to raise rates this week. All pairs vs usd wil fall
Thanks.. yes on wednesday, I will close my trades tomorrow or the morning after..
  • #100,983
  • Mar 13, 2017 10:56am Mar 13, 2017 10:56am
Quoting jpcashflow
The aussie doing well as iron ore price shot up 5% today. But onces the market gets absorbs this the aud will head south. Just remeber usa going to raise rates this week. All pairs vs usd wil fall
Isn't the raise priced in?
  • #100,984
  • Mar 13, 2017 2:50pm Mar 13, 2017 2:50pm
[quote=thewriter30;9659425]{quote} Isn't the raise priced in?[/quote

Never assume that. Once the raise is confirmed on thuraday the market wil react to it
  • #100,985
  • Mar 13, 2017 5:43pm Mar 13, 2017 5:43pm
Here are some interesting facts about Australians and their wealth.

Household savings have been sliding dramatically
Equity in housing has had some significant drawdown as wages remain low and cost remain high.
In other words people have been living off their home equity of which their property is overvalued.
When that cycle stops and home values stabilise and there is no more money in the home to borrow .. what happens ?

This is a recipe for disaster for the lenders and if they decide to put up rates then its defaults galore .

RBA has a tricky job ahead.

Govt haven't a clue.

Belt tightening by the consumer is on the cards .. expect some bad data ahead.
  • #100,986
  • Mar 13, 2017 11:52pm Mar 13, 2017 11:52pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-1...ction=business

Further to my comment about those living off the equity in the home on drawdowns we are now starting to see some measures to curb ballooning house prices.
  • #100,987
  • Mar 13, 2017 11:56pm Mar 13, 2017 11:56pm
Quoting lasty
Here are some interesting facts about Australians and their wealth. Household savings have been sliding dramatically Equity in housing has had some significant drawdown as wages remain low and cost remain high. In other words people have been living off their home equity of which their property is overvalued. When that cycle stops and home values stabilise and there is no more money in the home to borrow .. what happens ? This is a recipe for disaster for the lenders and if they decide to put up rates then its defaults galore . RBA has a tricky...
What if the banks start raising their interest rate without the need for the RBA to raise theirs?
This could stabilize house prices and even bring them down lower.
  • #100,988
  • Mar 14, 2017 1:52am Mar 14, 2017 1:52am
Quoting thewriter30
{quote} Isn't the raise priced in?
Lots of people say this everytime. Never is, always depends on statement that goes with it.
  • #100,989
  • Mar 14, 2017 5:44pm Mar 14, 2017 5:44pm
Quoting Vorex
{quote} What if the banks start raising their interest rate without the need for the RBA to raise theirs? This could stabilize house prices and even bring them down lower.
I would say many are up to their eyeballs in debt and its spiraling out of control.
Any hike in interest rates would trigger alarm bells and defaults galore.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-e...13-guxd74.html

Here is what the RBA is hoping they do.
  • #100,990
  • Mar 14, 2017 11:38pm Mar 14, 2017 11:38pm
This is correct. Aussie households are at breaking point. Local wages barely increase while costs continue to rise steadily. Any rate increase would bring defaults into play and the Australian banks would be ruthless.

The residential market is also massively supported by Asian interests. Bear this in mind. Government policy is making things less and less attractive for them, and worsening economic conditions will tilt things further.
  • #100,991
  • Mar 15, 2017 5:06am Mar 15, 2017 5:06am
So fellas is this rate hike fully priced in or what are guys thoughts on it ?
  • #100,992
  • Mar 15, 2017 6:12am Mar 15, 2017 6:12am
bullish H&S?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 38 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #100,993
  • Mar 15, 2017 6:15am Mar 15, 2017 6:15am
Quoting Ill-b-back
bullish H&S? {image} {image}

Once the rate hike kicks in aud will crash
  • #100,994
  • Mar 15, 2017 6:29am Mar 15, 2017 6:29am
Quoting jpcashflow
{quote} Once the rate hike kicks in aud will crash
It should yes.

Question is, when will it kick in?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #100,995
  • Mar 15, 2017 6:57am Mar 15, 2017 6:57am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} It should yes. Question is, when will it kick in?
Once the rate is confirmed at 5am look at calabder arction
  • #100,996
  • Mar 15, 2017 12:22pm Mar 15, 2017 12:22pm
spike higher incoming then major flush (100 points or so).
  • #100,997
  • Mar 15, 2017 2:11pm Mar 15, 2017 2:11pm
Quoting jpcashflow
{quote} Once the rate is confirmed at 5am look at calabder arction
I'm watching

Lol...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #100,998
  • Mar 15, 2017 2:12pm Mar 15, 2017 2:12pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} It should yes. Question is, when will it kick in?
Not quite yet...

Bwahahaha
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #100,999
  • Mar 15, 2017 2:50pm Mar 15, 2017 2:50pm
we close back below the green internal TL off 7710 and I think it would be a sell to 7450ish before a nice buy again
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDWeekly.png Size: 28 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #101,000
  • Mar 15, 2017 5:37pm Mar 15, 2017 5:37pm
Looks like a lot of shorts cashed in or got stops triggered on the FOMC.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd cycle.png Size: 52 KB


Cycle work says this pair is bullish until beginning of May but not sure as the normal cycles are not working, especially noted the New Year's USD rally did not work and I lost a lot on that.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
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