The Really Useless Thread

Hi guys, so just a follow up of the Friday price analysis discussion.

If anyone wants to fully understand I think its essential to go back to one of the previous series of price analysis sisse shared before. If you need it find his 11,116 post. It was the Dissecting the market, Bar 1: The Forgotten, Bar 2: Two to Tango, Bar 3: Three to Swing, Three to Swing: Waves, Support & Resistance Levels, S&R Zones, and Trendlines (Continuation)

Sisse, by now would you share some more on this series, please? I really took a few hours this weekend to study it well and again discovered some gold stuff it these basic principles.

With those posts in mind just wanna show you my outcome (for potentional criticism as Im not sure if I understand everything well)

Chart 1: this is the mid term range on E/U - it was chop so its hard to analyse but by using the concept of swing high and low (= high defined as a 3 candles with lower high - swing high - lower high X low as higher low - swing low - higher low) I see this.



It nicely shows you that the MT range is formed with !!short term swings and chops!! with multiple highs and lows.

Chart 2: If we go lower = we move to see the leg between last Swing high and low of previous chart (recent MT leg we trading) =) it now forms a well developed MT leg acros the whole MT range - unfinished as we have not moved out of the range to finish it yet.



as u can see it is formed by a one short term leg down with violent pullbacks and now a prolonged ST chop.

Chart 3: now we add supports and resistances as defined by the ST legs.



Chart 4: now we can move oven lower into the ST range



Chart 5: and even lower



Thats it for now im mentally dead after this Im not suggesting anything. Just showing a try how to work with it. May be wrong all the way.

P.S.: its insane how much you can get just from the price itself without any other indicators or anything.
P.S.: I dont know if you can see it but its fascinating how the legs fold into each other and how the S/R are cumulating in similar areas of course like Fib confluences.

Have a great day. Any comments welcomed.

I think your question to sisse got buried In an avalanche of posts

Turkish riots in the Netherlands may have handed the Dutch elections to the far right.

Just in case anyone is actually thinking about the price analysis and the charts I posted - I think there is one mistake - the support/resistance zone does not extent into the top/low of the extension but remains the same as you can see here.

Yeh those are pretty good, agree in general wit the way you structured that. It would be good to specify it a bit further to have some more performance, thats how usually markets target and fade certain areas:
-Instead of only looking of single candle or single strong high as possible "range" and fade/break point, extend it to more developed structures. Developed symetrical structures are far more often targeted becouse there is simply more liquidity hiding on both sides of it in terms of SLs and positions (pending stop orders+market bounce orders). Last example on that screenshot would pretty much go along with that. Single highs or lows are far less faded or targeted with significant moves.
-Fragment down the way move proceeded into the SR area that you think its relevant. Most short squeezes and really strong flips or fades will begin in ordered and fashioned way. Slow drop on the way from high, expansion of drop (no significant upward move), and then things go parabolic with last candle usually slipping like a giant on the ice (often on catalyst event if you are on higher macros). This means if you follow this procedure and break the leg down youll be in that play way faster than if your watching it from macro looking for when candle is going to close. This is significant difference in real releveance of RR that market is projecting for you.

So if your looking for relevance SR area of symetry on bear side focous on HLs ranges, and for bull focous on LH structures, this way symetry will dictate momentum to go when hawks see symetrical trendline taken out, or bulls/bears begin to panic out when their last line of defense (usually lowest low of structure /HH for bulls) is taken out.


The thing is, you dont need to have opinion on what is going on on every high or low whether its being faded or broken. Its fine to have no opinion or view on market most of the time, thus focousing on developed structures is fine. If trend is in check its easy and fine to go ahead and spot the changes, but on chopy action focous should be on symetry, thats usually where the key changes will come once that symetry is gone, eyes are drawn to symetry by default.

From micro perspective for legs that you dygest on fadeouts/squeezes you want to see move, no significant retraces, some more move, extended move, parabolic, slip:


Even though you pointed good examples on above screens, there is still room to improve on timing and RR following the approaches above, breaking down the move into the SR and out of it /fade. With closes you are somethimes in and often late, and also often completly missed out if close is far from your interest area, the point about breaking down every SR/structure/level that you watch and price movement into/around it is to be in there faster.





For example on example 3 from your last screen (the last one) you would be very late taking off that long trade loosing quite some R, while being faster on micro.
On the second example you would be again more precise and faster on micros becouse you would spot at least partially symetry breakdown even though that price was still in the range of suggested resistance/supply area. This then brings significant difference on RR ratios to your trade and managing of profitable trades.

Again on second example your pointing for candle to close inside supply with strong bull candle which often will proceed to bull break, nothing wrong with assuming that, it often points to weak supply or momentum to push before the break. But a lot of times that wont be the case, however if you break it down, those buts will be decreased. Momentum breaks that come from symetry are usually respected in strong moves eg. price not coming back strongly (for bull setup) after initiation. But you need to see the structure, otherwise its all gona be too late often. So in general its just about being faster in if you can, the confirmation at the end will be the same, from micro and macro.

This one i had from macro play from Feb its momo play but it highlights the same thing the downside of macro closes as trigger or opinion expectation (forgot to add on picture relevance of market open+emidient catalyst impact for directional price move), this setup highligts well how often macro levels are irrelevant when traders think hiding behind larger SL or low/high makes more significance or longer duration of trade, while micros lay the significant invalidation levels ahead of them, its all relevant to behaviour of asset, if momo hits, levels will form relevance this way, if flip/clearout/bounce is formed it will be formed in different way usually highligting more macro levels.:



Last one again highlighting the macro closes and their soft spots:

very interesting comments janpec. basically I completely agree that its important to move closer to the structures becuase just plotting a chart with swing lows and highs is un-trdable of course plus there is the whole timing, FA, risk managment thing. the maps are more like an exercise I will post more going deeper. so far trying to figure out how it works will keep your comments in mind while charting. will eventually comment on it

g. Is there any implications in general to when to trade a pullback in a break or in a extension? or is always the same? Sisse

I think in a pullback, it's not supposed to break but just it can have an extension. Otherwise, it changes direction and hence no more called a pullback.

$DXY at the same levels when the FED hiked in Dec 2016

ouch, Bulls are strong at eurusd. I made some colors to see the ranges more clear visual.


USDx we get close to what should be strong support .

Agreed, that 100.08-06 level is the low support from the Dec. 2016 FED hike.

Active European morning, pretty much got all what I needed except in OIL yet right before the very busy week ahead. We have Brexit, FED, BOE and a plethora of political and market reports for this week. Wont be boring ...

sisse

You may be missing the point on those conversations.

First, nobody is saying to trade candle by candle. We are talking about general very basic price notions in which you can build upon in whatever way you see fit. There is no a trading system, or trade this or that base on that basic explanation.

Second, you have been around in the thread for a while now. We are talking about short and mid term swings. It will impossible to analyse, trade or hold a swing (any trade) if we just trade based on what a single random candle does. The examples on the conversation aim to:

a. Show some basic price analysis that need to be implemented / use (or not if you think they are useless) in your own context.
b. Breaking the paradigm of red / green candle trading
c. Highlight that there is a thousand pieces of (timely) information you can have by price alone without any further use of other indicators. You can do or ignore them as you see fit.

Really thumbs up for such a hard work on those charts. You have been for a while in the thread and really you need a public recognition for your contribution on the thread. Very in depth analysis, yes you took the core points and put it all together in your own framework. That is EXACTLY the point of the conversion.


You sound like you have that massive 'AHA' moment TA wise where you unlock a door that opened a WHOLE new world. I am certainly sure that there is one million ways and tools to 'see markets' but the one you just opened is a very powerful one. I would only give you 2 hints/tips:

 

1. Be careful because you have entered in 'Research Mode' which is not the healthier way for trading live (too much new information to process) . There is one million things, ideas, and trade opportunities that will pop up in your head now that you can see your own price 'matrix' but be careful that you need to go further and trade live before you make assumptions that maybe not useful or valid in your current trading plan.

It's like first timer in 'All you can Eat' Buffet ... watch out you overfill your plate with the cheap filling high in carbs junk at the first table when the lobster and steak are at the very last table hidden from the unaware eater...

 

1. Keep a clear difference between what is a price notion/concept and an actual trading plan. The former is just a tool not a final product.

GL.

sisse

For traders that like more exotic trades IMO it opens up great opportunity to load up in eurnok. We are close to flip level and in top of channel. It has jumped lately on oil weakness and euro / USD strength. Not on NOK weakness.

It is a carry trade to. ( I am targeting 8.80 area middle term ( Until end of June )

GU short term bottom completed with extended leg target 222X. Tracking now uk100 for long plays.

I wasnt really implying that anyone is taking single direct approach to trading with using single green red candle and closes, there are fundy contexts, additional tech patterns and levels and what not that pretty much everyone here is part of. My whole point was that suggestions for tech plays and questions asked (especially those that were suggesting the use of candle analysis and expectations of price buildups after breaks) had a room to improve thats why highlighting those issues came about on posts.

Thanks sisse for the kind words. This approach really showed me much much more which I have never seen in the price before. Will try to go deeper and post again when time allows. And will try to keep your advice as once you discover some TA-tool it definitelly has potentiall to end in a "shoot on everything that moves" approach with fitting the tools to fit your bias or even worse to legitimise wring trades. Will keep it complex with all the other stuff, i.e. FA, outlooks, ST/MT/LT maps, R/R managment etc.

P.S.: if you have one more step in the series (Dissecting the market) which I used/we shared before. Would you be willing to share one more step?

...heads up just in case we trigger politicians risk off (not expecting much short term but rather to feed the mid and long term moves) in Sterling* and FtSE Brexit alerts on the political front coming any minute from Scotland that will kill the European session till NY.

sisse

...for those following the Brexit dominos falling one by one since June last year (sterling annihilation [check], inflation [check], Scotland[check] ... next one won't be that nice as it will affect the economy and the avenge Joe).

Scotland Independence referendum on sight and confirmed ...nothing has changed since the last update in the political front last year ... but this one is one of the big ones I was tracking. Although far and with a lot political BS in the middle:

Important update in the UK.

-> Changing mid term outlook in UK equities from Sell to Strong Sell and confirming long term in Sell for now

-> Changing very short term (till BOE at least) in Sterling* from Neutral to Soft Sell.

sisse

Was tracking EURNOK for a while as well. Also see it as great opportunity trade. My view is very similar to yours, w/ stp above 9.29. Good luck.

Euro\treasury spreads tightened lately, despite explicit monetary divergence on the surface, reflecting trading off v strong & long-term levels on DXY/Fiber as well as the diminishing stage of rate differentials.

European yields are capped though, ECB aside, looking at the charts, while there's alot more room on the other side to move. I'm calling this a temporary bump before we resolve 1.05 to the downside, for a while, before the long term bottom.

Interesting level in play on oil after the supply driven selloff. We have a long term bottom in play despite supply coming on-stream in the US.

Cool to see how close our levels are. I been plotting them from weekly maps.

Basically I will say that the more traders that see the same level the more valid it becomes. ( Self fulfilling prophesy ) For many years I tried to find some smart levels. But ended up with that only I and some few other saw them. So IMO the obvious levels are the best ones since mostly all traders see them.