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The Really Useless Thread

  • #148,381
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:41pm Mar 10, 2017 4:41pm
This helped so much sisse. I continue to get lost in the trees. I wish I could have seen it this way. My stops got hit. Lost some capital but took a postion at the .0676.

Hoping this is the last of ext. I would say neutral
close since we closed inside the Range.

Totally blind sided today how a good NFP would go opposite. Lots of re-postioning and covering I imagine.

Thanks for the tip on at least waiting on opening range. This helped me to just wait and watch.
  • #148,382
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:45pm Mar 10, 2017 4:45pm
Quoting sisse
Indeed. Now obviously you will need to put this basic concepts in perspective (your perspective). We discussed a lot about the mid term, we havent change FA (we still have to discuss a bit more), no changes in outlooks so far....plenty to digest.....
plenty to digest indeed...thank you for your time and patience an "a haa" moment is better than an "aaargh!" one.

Thank You
  • #148,383
  • Mar 10, 2017 5:01pm Mar 10, 2017 5:01pm
Quoting IMARICH1
This helped so much sisse. I continue to get lost in the trees. I wish I could have seen it this way. My stops got hit. Lost some capital but took a postion at the .0676. Hoping this is the last of ext. I would say neutral close since we closed inside the Range. Totally blind sided today how a good NFP would go opposite. Lots of re-postioning and covering I imagine. Thanks for the tip on at least waiting on opening range. This helped me to just wait and watch.
Don't forget that you are trying to take a mid term swing at these levels while short term swings we barely have any options to trade (2 in total since January) We haven't move at all since December we are sitting at key support that formed a compression range.

It's 'normal' to get confuse in the short term if you are not careful at these levels as we have not a few but a lot of trees in front with major forces in play. The risk is not in getting stopped out if you are not from the highs (1.08x or at least 1.068x) but actual getting married with a position in the wrong side if things change.

As I mentioned many times before once the FED hike this time, the easy part of the move in Dollar (and therefore in Euro )will be gone as the initial normalisation process will be finish and we will move to trade inflation more than rates alone (thats for another conversation).

We are literally with a ticking bomb in hands and without risk from Europe on the table the end of the downtrend in the Euro will be around the corner...

GL next week ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,384
  • Mar 10, 2017 5:29pm Mar 10, 2017 5:29pm
I think that exercise was very much needed in this thread. To me, it was much more clear than the past basic TA exercise, and opens my eyes (im sure others as well- as chester said too) into what sisse is seeing, and what sisse is saying based off those sights. Now it's much more clear how you derive your bullish, bearish, neutral closes as well as how levels become locked.

I'm telling you- 98% of these forums do not see candle sticks that way!!! Most stop @ seeing a hammer candle in the middle of the range and automatically take a trade
  • #148,385
  • Mar 10, 2017 7:30pm Mar 10, 2017 7:30pm
A multi-bookmark day in the thread.
  • #148,386
  • Mar 11, 2017 3:06am Mar 11, 2017 3:06am
Hi guys,
My view for eu is very simple with both ta and little fa wise We have got the Q1 high set with a new low to be formed a +/- 600 pips is expected during march with fed hike as a confirmed deal , trumpnomics & Europe election in play .taking all into consideration we might get a sharp run not the normal flow at all . The run after the NFP overshoot was nothing but an extension which we will see settled in a few session. About the fed priced in status i dont think we are priced in more than 20 - 30 % yet so expected a very high volatility if yellen gives a green signal in the upcoming week
Rest is just noise and 200% agree to sisse about the bottom to be around the corner .
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,387
  • Edited 4:57am Mar 11, 2017 3:52am | Edited 4:57am
Speaking about EU, new lows and parity ( everybody are waiting this last 2 years) I'm thinking if we didn't down more after promises of multi hikes this year in dollar and 2 speed zones in Europe I don't think we go more down that normal movement in current range. And nobody have forget Trump want down dollar price then we will see how long Fed go against Trump desires thinking he wants cut Fed power in a future... Evidently I can be wrong
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #148,388
  • Mar 11, 2017 5:57am Mar 11, 2017 5:57am
Quoting sisse
A quick update for those tracking Oil (and or CAD as collateral), triggering the traditional 'Choose your poison time' for the short and mid term leg... sisse
thank you for aha moment, and just my try to really understand how this basic TA works in OIL, is following short term map, I may identified wrong levels, but please correct me, if I'm totaly off the track.
Because we are in buy outlook ST and MT and we couldn't break out since January, what's in play right now (we went through short flip - 51.5x) is bottom of ST range 43.8x, with extension to 42.8x if we get through 45.6x.
I also checked it from MT map and if we might get compression, there will be support on 46.5x. So these are levels and areas to look for load, unless something changes in FA (I'm unable to track that), like next OPEC meeting (?) in May.
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If I will be right or at least close to it, I will try to suggest trade with some proper r:r =), which we can discuss further on.
  • #148,389
  • Mar 11, 2017 7:11am Mar 11, 2017 7:11am
Quoting braintheboss
Speaking about EU, new lows and parity ( everybody are waiting this last 2 years) I'm thinking if we didn't down more after promises of multi hikes this year in dollar and 2 speed zones in Europe I don't think we go more down that normal movement in current range. And nobody have forget Trump want down dollar price then we will see how long Fed go against Trump desires thinking he wants cut Fed power in a future... Evidently I can be wrong
i am totally against parity .... Q1 closing might be in between 1.05x - 1.07x .... i might be wrong

momentum play is in my book but not the capitulation move .... we are getting ready for a home run which i guess we all are waiting for ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,390
  • Mar 11, 2017 8:52am Mar 11, 2017 8:52am
Quoting chester123
{quote} so its E and close is? I would say neutral. cuz its inside the range which is newly the high of last wick and low of last E to the downside.
So if I understand correctly each candle which breaks out of the current range creates a new range and the high and low of this new range is the high and low of the breaking candle? (i.e a candle which breaks down from the range, also sets a new top for the range)
  • #148,391
  • Mar 11, 2017 9:47am Mar 11, 2017 9:47am
Quoting jaxx80
{quote} So if I understand correctly each candle which breaks out of the current range creates a new range and the high and low of this new range is the high and low of the breaking candle? (i.e a candle which breaks down from the range, also sets a new top for the range)
New break candle doesnt necesary create new range on top of it. Not going idea to approach it that way a single candle tells very boring and often missleading story, go lower disect the candle into structure. Structures will tell you how and when market is phasing between consolidation and momentum phases, single candles wont.
  • #148,392
  • Mar 11, 2017 10:05am Mar 11, 2017 10:05am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} New break candle doesnt necesary create new range on top of it. Not going idea to approach it that way a single candle tells very boring and often missleading story, go lower disect the candle into structure. Structures will tell you how and when market is phasing between consolidation and momentum phases, single candles wont.
very nice post.
  • #148,393
  • Edited 12:06pm Mar 11, 2017 10:48am | Edited 12:06pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} very nice post.
Just to clarify i dont want to downplay any conversations before, just pointing out that outscaled and oversimplified approaches are exposed to overfitting.
You could argue to point above...well yes but what about those examples, they clearly point to the conclusion of range/break/new smaller range establisment:?
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It will be so becouse in many cases the lower end structures will align to respect the rule, just as in any other overfitting process (just to note every trading approach is exposed to overfitting some less some more).
Using multi TFs will help to clarify phases of market more. That means any picture should be first considered as macro picture, and therefore having a micro aside of it will always explain situation better.
Also fitting developments in structure to key patterns will explain situation better than defining only range breaks by single candle bodies. Weak candles clearing the range with a close can often mean countinuation, strong ones often are poised to clearout and flip or a squeeze, but even better to downscale and see if move into the clearout was in parabolic extension. This diffirentiates between defining projected target by single candle action vs putting candles and legs into context of structure.
Follow trend changes by basic rules of highs and lows, downscale TF. Again single candle will only leave you guessing if anything of such has emerged bellow.
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One of disadvantages by following macro watched price ranges or legs from single TF (candle close/rejection) is that when impulsive move is being built up, youll miss the initiation and key levels and once candle closes it will be far away from the symetry price range or structure and become short term irrelevant, meaning wasted ammo in terms of screen time and oportunity.
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......break it down and follow the market phasing from there, macro should be only pointing to relevance or context to what you should be looking on micro. If macro is symetrical and poised to break, look on micro for those clues, if macro is symetrical in terms of range and poised to clearout or squeeze again look for clues lower. Single candles tell lagging tales, and lag means decreased RR. On the other hand, many candles often tells "spookeout" tales, but it just means you need to adjust the game to it.

Instead of looking candle to structure break, its better to look at range structure-bottom(top)-consolidation near peak as countinuation play and anything else (strong rejection as oposite). This clears the story more, and more importantly gives much better RR for any entries.

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Momentum play, so basically oposite from candle close and rejection bounce lookout, but the principle even though the oposite, is the same. Reverting the means of micros basically points to bounce play for macro especially on wipeout.
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For anyone looking at this up to you how you take this, take this from a guy who has seen way too many charts, patterns,...., perhaps too much, but enough to understand that difference between timing the macro from micro could be deal breaker between beein forewer BE trader or a consistent trader on upside. Goes to post made some weeks before, there are traders that are really good on identifying catalyst and its impact short/mid term where using simplistic techs are fine to gain edge, but if you are lacking that, those tech historical/statistical infos are going to be strong hand to combat that. This is something that every trader knows which cathegory he bellongs.



....Japanese used candlesticks usually per-cycle anylisis for trading rice and other commodities. Since then markets have expanded in liquidity 1000...s of times, we have ability to dig deeper, no excuse not to do so.
  • #148,394
  • Mar 11, 2017 10:57am Mar 11, 2017 10:57am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Just to clarify i dont want to downplay any conversations before, just pointing out that outscaled and oversimplified approaches are exposed to overfitting. You could argue to point above...well yes but what about those examples, they clearly point to the conclusion of range/break/new smaller range establisment:? {image} It will be so becouse in many cases the lower end structures will align to respect the rule, just as in any other overfitting process (just to note every trading approach is exposed to overfitting some less some more). Using...
very nice. i'm with you. it's very similar to how i break it down.
  • #148,395
  • Mar 11, 2017 10:59am Mar 11, 2017 10:59am
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} very nice. i'm with you. it's very similar to how i break it down.
not everyday you get to see someone in line. i'll pop in time to time chack on your post.
/r
  • #148,396
  • Mar 11, 2017 11:00am Mar 11, 2017 11:00am
uh... crap.... how do i vouch someone?
forgot how to do it....
help.
  • #148,397
  • Mar 11, 2017 4:35pm Mar 11, 2017 4:35pm
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} i am totally against parity .... Q1 closing might be in between 1.05x - 1.07x .... i might be wrong momentum play is in my book but not the capitulation move .... we are getting ready for a home run which i guess we all are waiting for ....
understand from above you are against parity and so am I....but wish to clarify your previous post where you suggested a 600 plus pip move down, to set a new low............parity is around 650 pips have I misunderstood or do you expect that much of a low?

I entered a badly timed short in December when the parity chorus was loud.....I have spent many weeks since, learning as much as I can to understand and try and reduce my risk. Being forced to focus on one pair as been incredible worthwhile. That was how I found this thread, thanks to all.
I have entered many new shorts and closed some for small profits over recent weeks. My break even after much gritting of teethe, is at 1.048 area ..... I am hoping for a new low soon and then expect the trend to change quickly and strongly.

I will be looking closely at open to add to my position to at least benefit from further couple of days of trading within the current range.

Options over the next 2 weeks as I see it ...

I need to pick my exit carefully for a BE, and then see it as a massive learning experience that has cost me nothing but lack of sleep.

OR I hold on a bit longer and close with the a small profit on a trade with the worst R:R imaginable but invaluable learning....

OR if 1.01 area is likely then I have had my learning paid for.....

My current strategy is to stagger closes depending on the momentum.....and again depending on momentum at the time, close out at around 1.039
So my query of where you see the bottom is not from any critical standpoint......but more of a desperate one...
  • #148,398
  • Edited 6:17pm Mar 11, 2017 6:00pm | Edited 6:17pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} New break candle doesnt necesary create new range on top of it. Not going idea to approach it that way a single candle tells very boring and often missleading story, go lower disect the candle into structure. Structures will tell you how and when market is phasing between consolidation and momentum phases, single candles wont.
Thanks for the explanations. I am just trying to understand the concept, which is being discussed:

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  • #148,399
  • Mar 11, 2017 6:41pm Mar 11, 2017 6:41pm
Quoting kenfen69
...through the "beg, borrow or steal" method...er, collaboration...we can all pick up a few gems from one another to improve our own methods.
LOL I hope we don't see anyone shamelessly begging. I think we're all willing to work 80 hours to avoid working 40 and it's a matter of time before we glue a system together that works for us.
  • #148,400
  • Mar 11, 2017 11:42pm Mar 11, 2017 11:42pm
Quoting cashfactor
{quote} understand from above you are against parity and so am I....but wish to clarify your previous post where you suggested a 600 plus pip move down, to set a new low............parity is around 650 pips have I misunderstood or do you expect that much of a low?..
its written +/- 600 pips that means max 400-500 pips down and 100-150 pips up for Q1.... i hope its clear now

we are trading the last mid and long term leg since december ecb .... the retrace we are getting in eu is nothing but extensions nothing else as you can clearly see the range is capped .... big boys are just extending the play ground range ....

simple philosophy if you are not in .... thats really ok but please dont go against the trend ... Going against the flow will hurt you more then waiting for the flow to resume .....
Re-Incarnated
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