Predicting direction of economic releases

Quoting Yakovzvi

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Hi:

Can u please provide us with the followin info.

how long before the actual release you enter a trade ? what currency pairs do you trade ?

Regards
Yankey

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Quoting ngdaniel

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If you have not introduced yourself in the forum, please do not private message me for information.

I am sorry that I must now post this request but your questions, though important to you, should be posted in the forum so I and others can answer it.

We are here to mutually benefit each other. When you private message me, you are seeking an advantage over others but I will not entertain such requests.

Thank you for understanding.

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Quoting summitfx

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Oh come on we all want the inside scoop like you got on the Canadian Employment report

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Quoting ngdaniel

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My prediction for the Canadian Employment Report was wrong. I heard on CNBC's Squack Box this morning that the report was going to favor the USD.

I didn't trade. I have no inside scoop. My 14+ hour advance prediction on the trade was because I had a 50-50 chance of being right. News this morning made me 100% on the wrong side.

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Quoting ngdaniel

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I trade with a stop loss just like everyone else. My order is placed before high volatility so the stop loss order has to be honored.

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If the trade goes against you because volatility skipped your stop, minimize losses. You will often see a retracement of the first spike, so try and get out close to your entry to minimize your losses.

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It is common sense to minimize your losses and maximize your returns.

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I hope this answers your question.

Quoting kevfx

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That means u do use stoploss orders say 10, 15 ,20 may be few more pips rite ?



Now u say if the trade goes against u, bcoz of vlatility and skipped ur stop then one should mini. his/her lossses on retracement...Actualy tats only possible if u havent kept a stoploss order in real and just kept in ur mind. (Which i think is realy dangerous for ur acc to be blown off in a volatile news.)
2ndly if u do have kept stoploss then if the price skipped ur stoploss ordered did exicuted... if u kept 10 pips s/l and price skipped to 50 pips against ur trade, ur s/l was still exicuted 50 pips far from ur entry which was the next best price from ur s/l order.



I know its common sense thats y i m asking u again... how do u handle the situation.



If u can answer the situation abv which does happen in real forex market wuld be my answer.

cheers

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Quoting summitfx

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It happens to all of us. I just hope nobody was listening and took your advice.
Should you be so brazen to pubilicly post an outcome for which you really have no clue. I read business publications also but don't try to predict the news. I really wonder who lost money thinking you were a Canandian Gov. worker trying to Pimp the news

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Quoting ngdaniel

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I still use a 50-100 stop loss. If you look at today's trade, it would not have stopped me out and I can wait for the retracement to get me out.

Today I did not trade because moments before the news release, CNBC announced a piece of news that a trade was made by an entity ahead of the release. I follow what is said on the news. Fundamentals Trading is news trading afterall. The news knows.

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Quoting ngdaniel

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If someone blindly follows a trade simply because it is posted, they fully deserve to lose.

Odds may be better in a gambling casino or playing a lottery.
"All it takes is a dollar and a dream"

I am a currency speculator. I would not work for government and I will reserve my right to not comment on being a Canadian as my statements could offend a few across the border.

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Quoting kevfx

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Cheers daniel,

if u use 50-100 pip s/l then it wont get slipped very ofen...and u still have a chance to cut ur losses.

The only thing tat worries me over here is News like NFP and GDP dont give u good retracements in the first spice and its so volatile and to close ur position in those moments.

So in the end u r prepared to take 50-100 pips loss in order to take a win from 50-100 pips... rite?
So ur risk/reward ration is not tat encouraging... u can win 50-100pips and lose aswell.

But anyway 50-100pips s/l wont give u compains like slippage by broker and conspiracy stuff.

Thanks for the reply.

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Quoting summitfx

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Ok That's it I officially nominate you for the
BubbleHead of the Month award

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Quoting ngdaniel

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I'll second that. Bubblehead sounds like a cool title considering I think outside of the box. It does not have the same ring as Maverick or Entrepreur or some of the other great names. Where is my award?

Note: This morning's Squawk Box mentioned that the USD strengthened against the CAD before the economic release. Just follow the news in the morning for trading information. It does work.

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Quoting summitfx

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Jusy messin' with ya. We all make mistakes

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Quoting sarama001

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I heard on CNBC's Squack Box this morning that the report was going to favor the USD.

ngdaniel
Is it only CNBC's Squack Box that tries to predict the report? and do they predict all the news coming out on that day or do they predict only some news?

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Quoting Pipsman

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Hi Daniel,

Thanks for sharing your insight. I believe I understand your simple system of acting upon previews prior to a news release.

I'm wondering: if there're insiders/big players there and they enjoy the advantage of getting a head start (when liquidity drops significantly) immediately prior to release, the up or down price movement should be obvious. As such, is it much easier to just watch the direction of the price movement and follow the flow?

Just my 2 cents.

PM

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