http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=72686
#1.This is an analogous thread to the above linked thread. (To avoid time-consuming rant skip to point #2.) I'm not a 1kt demo trader so I don't get to post on that part of the forum. I support the concept of 1kt but the method of filtering 1kt members on this site is childish. Seriously; let's start a club and to be a member you have to be referred by two people that we previously vouched for. In the end you have the same group of people talking about the same rehashed concepts and from what I've seen most are wrong. Sure they have their Messiahs that bring intelligence to the forum like Hakuna, Auslanco, NewstraderFX etc.
Case in point is the above linked thread where someone says they have predicted correctly NFP magnitude and direction. I say this is bogus because there are factors that cannot be predicted in NFP and I'm not even going to start with ADP. I used ADP payroll when I owned GNC's and I'll tell you from experience that company could not find their a$$ with both hands. If you want to know real-life fundamentals you can read NewstraderFX's comments. If you follow NTFX you'll know that NFP adjusts numbers by adding and subtracting jobs every month based on what they think is a reflection of the job market; for example in January they add 100,000 jobs. It is a ridiculous concept. This is not the concept that makes NFP unpredictable. The factor that makes NFP unpredictable is the number of business owners polled every month that will respond on time and accurately. NFP is a voluntary poll sent out via mail to business owners, house wives etc to get a picture of the job market. It's impossible to predict not to mention the revisions that come 1,2 or 3 months later by voluntary respondents. Apparently someone needs to read "Secrets of Economic Indicators", or at least read NewstraderFX's work. "There's nothing new under the Sun."
#2.On to really predicting news events or I should more properly say predicting market outcome of economic events. I've done a volume study of futures CME ccy contracts before news. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=37926
Volume in ccy markets is real. Volume on your MT4 platform is a proxy of reality. MT4 volume is tick volume and is a % of the real ticks coming through the MT4 broker from their institutional feeds so MT4 volume holds some value regarding activity at price.
I've witnessed people predict market direction of news releases. Safwan has done it well. Auslanco does it but I've not seen him do it.
#3.If you really wanted to know the state of the job market you would ask the IRS how many and what kind of tax forms were submitted for the prior month to know how many people created a business or how many people started working for a company etc.
I read stuff written by people much smarter than myself.
#1.This is an analogous thread to the above linked thread. (To avoid time-consuming rant skip to point #2.) I'm not a 1kt demo trader so I don't get to post on that part of the forum. I support the concept of 1kt but the method of filtering 1kt members on this site is childish. Seriously; let's start a club and to be a member you have to be referred by two people that we previously vouched for. In the end you have the same group of people talking about the same rehashed concepts and from what I've seen most are wrong. Sure they have their Messiahs that bring intelligence to the forum like Hakuna, Auslanco, NewstraderFX etc.
Case in point is the above linked thread where someone says they have predicted correctly NFP magnitude and direction. I say this is bogus because there are factors that cannot be predicted in NFP and I'm not even going to start with ADP. I used ADP payroll when I owned GNC's and I'll tell you from experience that company could not find their a$$ with both hands. If you want to know real-life fundamentals you can read NewstraderFX's comments. If you follow NTFX you'll know that NFP adjusts numbers by adding and subtracting jobs every month based on what they think is a reflection of the job market; for example in January they add 100,000 jobs. It is a ridiculous concept. This is not the concept that makes NFP unpredictable. The factor that makes NFP unpredictable is the number of business owners polled every month that will respond on time and accurately. NFP is a voluntary poll sent out via mail to business owners, house wives etc to get a picture of the job market. It's impossible to predict not to mention the revisions that come 1,2 or 3 months later by voluntary respondents. Apparently someone needs to read "Secrets of Economic Indicators", or at least read NewstraderFX's work. "There's nothing new under the Sun."
#2.On to really predicting news events or I should more properly say predicting market outcome of economic events. I've done a volume study of futures CME ccy contracts before news. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=37926
Volume in ccy markets is real. Volume on your MT4 platform is a proxy of reality. MT4 volume is tick volume and is a % of the real ticks coming through the MT4 broker from their institutional feeds so MT4 volume holds some value regarding activity at price.
I've witnessed people predict market direction of news releases. Safwan has done it well. Auslanco does it but I've not seen him do it.
#3.If you really wanted to know the state of the job market you would ask the IRS how many and what kind of tax forms were submitted for the prior month to know how many people created a business or how many people started working for a company etc.
I read stuff written by people much smarter than myself.
It really is that easy.