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Double or Nothing Scaling

  • #21
  • Mar 10, 2017 2:17pm Mar 10, 2017 2:17pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} 10 losses in a row for the 1st account : 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512 10 wins in a row in the 2nd account ; 1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 two competing martingales going at the same time still fail when encountering such streaks. Martingale could work if the system you are trading doesnt have to many losses in a row, but if left uncapped ( doubling til infinity ) it will blow.

so you need 512 wins before you have a martingale explosion. lol sounds like it would be fun to watch with some popcorn!
  • #22
  • Edited 2:59pm Mar 10, 2017 2:21pm | Edited 2:59pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} can you please explain how is the probability altered when the range is extended ?

if you lose first trade, with 10 pips target with 1 to 1 rr, then the second trade uses the same lot size but requires 20 pips to tp with still only 10 pips stop loss etc. the 50% win rate flies out the window. thus the probability is altered when you extend the range.

Of course monty hall has his own version of probability.
Inserted Video
if somehow your trade going against you could be likened to monty opening the wrong door.... you could improve your odds? no? kinda like trading with the trend. same thing isnt it. if for example you say ok a stop of 5 pips with a target of 5 pips = trade and i have a X% chance of winning the first in a set of three trades if i go long, but then i lose the first trade.... what can be said of the next trade if we change its direction to short? does monty halls logic apply? could we do the first trade on demo to determine a micro trend? does it increase the chances of the second trade? sounds pretty logical to me...but i dunno so odds of winning would increase by using a range bar chart and trading in the direction of the last closed bar. stupid simple... would you ever lose 10 in a row with that method. id doubt it.

speaking of probablity, when you have one factor ( lets say mini-trend) that makes you lets say 57% more likely to win a 1 to 1 trade and another factor like i dunno lets say higher timeframe trend that gives you in its own right a 54% chance of winning the 1 to 1 trade? what si the probablity of wiiing if you have both a trend And a higher timeframe trend in place?

In the example... if you took the first trade short 9on demo hopefully) with 1 to 1 rr and it lost... then you took the second trade long... what is the probability that the second trade wins using monty halls logic?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: first trade short on demo losing ten what was probability of second trade long going to target.png Size: 46 KB
  • #23
  • Mar 10, 2017 2:48pm Mar 10, 2017 2:48pm
If you are prepared to lose 10 trades in a row (however unlikely, but you want to be "prepared"), then your bet size will be 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256 and 512 for each of the successive trades. Your "prepared" bank account size will need to be 1+2+4+8+16+32+64+128+256+512 = 1023 units. At the end of the 10th trade even if you win, you win back the 1st dollar. I would not want to have $1023 sitting around to be prepared to earn $1. And don't forget, we have not account for paying the bid-ask spread or commissions too. Good luck.
  • #24
  • Mar 10, 2017 2:51pm Mar 10, 2017 2:51pm
Quoting calaxcorp
If you are prepared to lose 10 trades in a row (however unlikely, but you want to be "prepared"), then your bet size will be 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256 and 512 for each of the successive trades. Your "prepared" bank account size will need to be 1+2+4+8+16+32+64+128+256+512 = 1023 units. At the end of the 10th trade even if you win, you win back the 1st dollar. I would not want to have $1023 sitting around to be prepared to earn $1. And don't forget, we have not account for paying the bid-ask spread or commissions too. Good luck.

yep. sounds like a really dumb ass fu&%^ing idea when you look atit that way calaxcorp. but i amended my post above for considerations

thanx
  • #25
  • Mar 10, 2017 2:56pm Mar 10, 2017 2:56pm
Quoting dagoods
{quote} so you need 512 wins before you have a martingale explosion. lol sounds like it would be fun to watch with some popcorn!
no you dont need 512 wins to explode, but having 2 martingale competing at the same time wont be able to hedge your losses since the losing one will double after all its losses and the winning one will keep the same size.
  • #26
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:12pm Mar 10, 2017 3:12pm
Quoting dagoods
{quote} if you lose first trade, with 10 pips target with 1 to 1 rr, then the second trade uses the same lot size but requires 20 pips to tp with still only 10 pips stop loss etc. the 50% win rate flies out the window. thus the probability is altered when you extend the range. Of course monty hall has his own version of probability. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vRUxbzJZ9Y if somehow your trade going against you could be likened to monty opening the wrong door.... you could improve your odds? no? kinda like trading with the trend....
oh ok but if the sl doesnt change, then after lets say 5 losses do you shoot for 160 pips with still 10 pips sl ? The rest of the post if a little bit above my head so i will re read it again later. I play with martingale too but on charts like this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: point o bar.png Size: 73 KB
  • #27
  • Edited 3:44pm Mar 10, 2017 3:15pm | Edited 3:44pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} oh ok but if the sl doesnt change, then after lets say 5 losses do you shoot for 160 pips with still 10 pips sl ? The rest of the post if a little bit above my head so i will re read it again later. I play with martingale too but on charts like this{image}

show me a range bar chart that loses 10 ina row. any range any chart, ever. I'll wait. when you find one,,,, you may find one... then all you have left to figure out is how to not have 10 losses in a row even on that chart.... for example make a rule that if you lose a trade, or if you lose 3 in a row, or whatever rule you make up....you have to wait until the 2 days or whatever time period you decide, to trade again with the idea that it will( usually will get you out of the rangey period where the risk of ten losers in a row is)... just musing man...i don't really do it so

what about a semi martingale system though to try to offset some of the loss. i think that is much more realistic.

a factor or 1.2 for example... 1st trade is a loss the second trade = 1.2X the first trade etc. better yet increase the range and the lots size by 1.1 each..... somehting like that would be workable perhaps, who knows...i'm tired of thinking too much lol
  • #28
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:59pm Mar 10, 2017 3:59pm
Quoting dagoods
{quote} show me a range bar chart that loses 10 ina row. any range any chart, ever. I'll wait. when you find one,,,, you may find one... then all you have left to figure out is how to not have 10 losses in a row even on that chart.... for example make a rule that if you lose a trade, or if you lose 3 in a row, or whatever rule you make up....you have to wait until the 2 days or whatever time period you decide, to trade again with the idea that it will( usually will get you out of the rangey period where the risk of ten losers in a row is)... just...
the issue isnt wether it is possible to spot 10 losses in a row, but if after every loss you double the range of tp but your sl stays the same...then after each loss the trade has more and more chance of hitting the stop loss.
1st trade r r: 1 1
2nd trade r r : 1 2
...
5th trade rr : 1 16.
  • #29
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:26pm Mar 10, 2017 4:26pm
Quoting dagoods
{quote} show me a range bar chart that loses 10 ina row...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: point o bar 2.png Size: 112 KB

if you enter buy at the top of yellow line, thats more than 10 losses ina row
  • #30
  • Mar 10, 2017 5:06pm Mar 10, 2017 5:06pm
Quoting metta87
{quote}{image} if you enter buy at the top of yellow line, thats more than 10 losses ina row

if you enter on a candle breaking high or low of previous candle it is not..... only if you had entered all longs....
  • #31
  • Mar 10, 2017 8:39pm Mar 10, 2017 8:39pm
Quoting dagoods
{quote} if you enter on a candle breaking high or low of previous candle it is not..... only if you had entered all longs....
what did you mean by ten losses in a row then ?
i play a lot with grids charts so im curious to know. thanks.
  • #32
  • Edited 3:52am Mar 11, 2017 12:51am | Edited 3:52am
Quoting calaxcorp
If you are prepared to lose 10 trades in a row (however unlikely, but you want to be "prepared"), then your bet size will be 1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256 and 512 for each of the successive trades. Your "prepared" bank account size will need to be 1+2+4+8+16+32+64+128+256+512 = 1023 units. At the end of the 10th trade even if you win, you win back the 1st dollar. I would not want to have $1023 sitting around to be prepared to earn $1. And don't forget, we have not account for paying the bid-ask spread or commissions too. Good luck.

DEFINITELY a dumb idea lol

my RR ranged from 1:3 to 1:4 and I could have recovered "only" 8 consecutive losses... so being selective was key.

If anybody's interested, my system was merely based on volatility.. I used bb or a series of MA's to check.. when volatility gets very low price is likely to spike up or down.

again if you can cover a 100+ pips gap / you have NBP / small balance you can eventually make money... otherwise it's pure suicide.
  • #33
  • Mar 11, 2017 1:15am Mar 11, 2017 1:15am
Quoting HeyYou
Anyway martingale is very dangerous without a negative balance protection. been there and it's not fun. Also the casino is a far better option if you plan to just toss a coin.
Me too . Not worth it , U might need abot $5000 to start if lucky ,
  • #34
  • Mar 11, 2017 1:40am Mar 11, 2017 1:40am
Quoting terminator12
{quote} Me too . Not worth it , U might need abot $5000 to start if lucky ,
I would say $300 are enough.. less with Cent accounts.

BUT if we consider that we may fail several attempts.. yes.

There are better options other than martingale IMO.
  • #35
  • Edited 7:55am Mar 11, 2017 7:43am | Edited 7:55am
Quoting metta87
{quote} what did you mean by ten losses in a row then ? i play a lot with grids charts so im curious to know. thanks.
take a range bar chart. set your ea to trade every single candle. when the high or low of the previous candle breaks enter, with a target of 1 candle. for example if your using a 10 pip range bar candle, your target is 10 pips, your stop loss is 10 pips. lets call tha a candle break trading method.
can you find a situation where you have ten candle break trades in a row that do not go to target, but instead go to the stop loss (-10 in the example) that is to say ten times in a row you enter a trade and it goes to stop loss. Remember the entry is upon the break of the high or low of the previous candle.

alternatively to range bar candles you could use the sweet spots indicator which is really the same thing if you have a brain to envision it as such...i showed an example previously...

of course its getting off topic as this thread is about scaling... but i like solutions not problems
  • #36
  • Mar 11, 2017 7:52am Mar 11, 2017 7:52am
Quoting metta87
{quote} the issue isnt wether it is possible to spot 10 losses in a row, but if after every loss you double the range of tp but your sl stays the same...then after each loss the trade has more and more chance of hitting the stop loss. 1st trade r r: 1 1 2nd trade r r : 1 2 ... 5th trade rr : 1 16.

yep. that's why its too aggressive IMHO. i recall a trader a long while ago on ff who used a semi martingale approach as part of his trading plan. i dont recall the thread but i always liked the idea of making up partial portion of ones losses through semi martingale money management, if done safely. ywe only need an edge. we do not need to always win and never have any loss. for example a factor of 1.1 rather than doubling the lot size

first trade 1 -result loss

second trade 1.1 -result loss

third trade 1.21 result loss

4th trade 1.3310 win

reset etc.

you get the idea

if you can sustain that you have increased your edge. just saying. it is realistically doable and reasonable to consider. no?
  • #37
  • Mar 11, 2017 8:18am Mar 11, 2017 8:18am
Quoting 853358
Good day all, I understand the pessimist members, which believe, that martingale won't work. Simply think about, all the trades, who don't use martingale and burst their accounts. So, the connection can easily be made that martingale won't work, because of the fact the fact after every loss, under the martingale money management, you are increasing your overall risk to the market. However, what the pessimistic trades isn't noticing, is that "scalpers" trade with an actual "expectancy" which is why you see many of them have "Accurate" entries". A...

very nice. what system are you using?
  • #38
  • Mar 11, 2017 8:53am Mar 11, 2017 8:53am
Quoting 853358
I for one use martingale and do so very well, only because the rules I have setup won't result in more than 4 straight losses on the 1m TF! That gives me a "Profit ratio" of well over 10.0 (which is insane) and allows me to not have to compound my account.
do you stop martingaling after the 4th loss ? or does your system never loses 4 times in a row ?
  • #39
  • Mar 11, 2017 8:55am Mar 11, 2017 8:55am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} I would say $300 are enough.. less with Cent accounts. BUT if we consider that we may fail several attempts.. yes. There are better options other than martingale IMO.
which options for example ?
  • #40
  • Mar 11, 2017 9:24am Mar 11, 2017 9:24am
Attached Image
Vucking good EA coder... https://t.ly/AZjRM
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