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The Really Useless Thread

  • #148,361
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:41pm Mar 10, 2017 3:41pm
[quote=mayafx;9652646]
Quoting sisse
{quote} Oh come on !!!!! you are making me angry mate ... ... Ok lets review some very BASIC price analysis. Let me walk you through quickly instead of just throwing you some definitions and weird names. Try to reply quickly (or anybody. a. Is this is a break? Yes or No? {image} sisse[/quo yes
most breaks retreat, at some point. before continuing in the break direction. even a news driven break most times comes back to the news release level.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,362
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:43pm Mar 10, 2017 3:43pm
4th and 18th bar extend range up/down. 9th and 20th bar are breaks.
  • #148,363
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:44pm Mar 10, 2017 3:44pm
candle 9 and 12 are breaks of the lows, candle 20 extension of the lows, all the rest irrelevant if you count the 4th candle as the extended top of the range
  • #148,364
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:44pm Mar 10, 2017 3:44pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} break on the first new candle (9th). than a new range and 19th candle is break up which failed and after its just range extended on second candle from end.
So so so.

Let me mark it for you only once ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8.png Size: 117 KB


Only a couple of more ...we are nearly there as you probably now where we already are ...

g. Is there any implications in general to when to trade a pullback in a break or in a extension? or is always the same?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,365
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:47pm Mar 10, 2017 3:47pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} So so so. Let me mark it for you only once ... {image} Only a couple of more ...we are nearly there as you probably now where we already are ... g. Is there any implications in general to when to trade a pullback in a break or in a extension? or is always the same? sisse
outlook? sell = sell the momentum bear breaks and failed bull breaks / extension of the highs

the opposite for buy

neutral sell or buy the extensions and failed breaks to the middle
  • #148,366
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:48pm Mar 10, 2017 3:48pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} So so so. Let me mark it for you only once ... {image} Only a couple of more ...we are nearly there as you probably now where we already are ... g. Is there any implications in general to when to trade a pullback in a break or in a extension? or is always the same? sisse
well, in my view that part comes from FA?
  • #148,367
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:50pm Mar 10, 2017 3:50pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} outlook? sell = sell the momentum bear breaks and failed bull breaks / extension of the highs the opposite for buy neutral sell or buy the extensions and failed breaks to the middle
Ok that is valid concept ...i leave it open for those who want of explore deeper in their own terms.


h. Now for the final 2 charts ...the moment of truth...

Can you mark break and extension in this one:

Attached Image


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,368
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:55pm Mar 10, 2017 3:55pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Ok that is valid concept ...i leave it open for those who want of explore deeper in their own terms. h. Now for the final 2 charts ...the moment of truth... Can you mark break and extension in this one: {image} sisse
so 6th is break and last is ext.

Sorry, I was modifing the post - have some questions on timing but need more time to formulate
  • #148,369
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:56pm Mar 10, 2017 3:56pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Ok that is valid concept ...i leave it open for those who want of explore deeper in their own terms. h. Now for the final 2 charts ...the moment of truth... Can you mark break and extension in this one: {image} sisse

bar 3 extension
bar 6 break
last ext
  • #148,370
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:56pm Mar 10, 2017 3:56pm
s as a general rule u wait. all situations are unique. so as a the general rule wait for 50% minimum of the cluster range you're focusing on. if its a 1000 pip range before the break.. let it retrace 500 of the clusters range. less trading with a set risk of pips one could wait for more than the 500.. like 990 pips.. this is just an example of waiting for near risk.. u can do the same on any break using a like tf.. for instance if the cluster range is 25 pips then a L b/o.. you want it to retrace at least 25 above the b/o.. but the upper range is the risk.. you want to have the 25 pip bounce and reward at 75 pips.. i have been setting entries at the upper end of a range.. and not trading the 25 pip risk... by placing a pending nearer the cluster high... meanwhile within the larger ones.. i look for a smaller one to enter, in the direction of the larger. hopefully you do this in the directions of the right fundies.. plus you can use indis or whatever to compliment this simple style of waiting for a retrace. best used with double tops or bottoms.. that retrace is an attractant,, most times it will return..

if you look at most dt or db... u will see the new h r l b/o,, but eventually it will retrace 1/2.. a dt or a db has a 3 point stance... that is the better clusters to look for.. i drew some on those charts ..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,371
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:57pm Mar 10, 2017 3:57pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Ok that is valid concept ...i leave it open for those who want of explore deeper in their own terms. h. Now for the final 2 charts ...the moment of truth... Can you mark break and extension in this one: {image} sisse
.
Attached Image
  • #148,372
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:59pm Mar 10, 2017 3:59pm
Agree with chester and gator

best to wait to see the break or failed break, not to trade an active extension
  • #148,373
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:02pm Mar 10, 2017 4:02pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Agree with chester and gator best to wait to see the break or failed break, not to trade an active extension
yes, It depends on how FA relates to this. FA does not guarantee the break. just lets look at recent ST 1,050-1,053 in EU - it made some extension in FA ST sell but did not happen.
  • #148,374
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:03pm Mar 10, 2017 4:03pm
Is an extension not a break until it retraces and invalidates the break?

How do you define a break/extension 'live' or is it an after the fact definition?
  • #148,375
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:05pm Mar 10, 2017 4:05pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} so 6th is break and last is ext. I agree as Phramor says but than is the question of timing. whether you sell while extending or you wait for the confirmation via seeing the close IN the range,
Not talking about trading anything here (@Gator have good tips there) I am just walking you through some very basic concepts in price. Don't make the mistake to think I am giving you signals or a system. I am just giving you some core concepts that I think are indispensable and useful for swing trading.

h. Here is the final one right on time for the roll. As you prolly knew I was walking you though the last 3 months of trading in 10 charts...


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10.png Size: 83 KB

Q6: From a strictly PRICE simple candle perspective (what we have been doing the last 45 minutes). What do we have today for the roll E or B?
Q7: From this perspective alone Would you qualify this as a Bullish close, Bearish or Neutral?
Q8: And the most important one (the reason why we got this detour from the conversation). CAN YOU SPOT THE CURRENT SHORT TERM RANGE?

Obviously now you have the benefit of hindsight but Can you understand why I disagree with you guys when you call 1.061x as news flow entry? (inside bar, trading chop zone'). Can you understand why I called a increase in volatility coming in the short term before it happened?...was it worthi to jump in the middle of the knee jerk reaction bar on a Friday afternoon, were you in a hurry if you were looking for shorts ?


I know we went a bit out of topic but I hope it helps. As always said in the very very simple basic principles of TA and prices is where most of the problems start...we'll have to continue with a detailed FA conversation next week.

Apologize to those who were taking market in a key day while I was flooding the thread with this charts.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,376
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:13pm Mar 10, 2017 4:13pm
6. Ext
7. Neutral
8. 1.049 - 1.07
  • #148,377
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:15pm Mar 10, 2017 4:15pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Not talking about trading anything here (@Gator have good tips there) I am just walking you through some very basic concepts in price. Don't make the mistake to think I am giving you signals or a system. I am just giving you some core concepts that I think are indispensable and useful for swing trading. h. Here is the final one right on time for the roll. As you prolly knew I was walking you though the last 3 months of trading in 10 charts... {image} Q6: From a strictly PRICE simple candle perspective (what we have been doing the last 45...
so its E and close is? I would say neutral. cuz its inside the range which is newly the high of last wick and low of last E to the downside.

Gotta say that I went through many of your very old posts with charts but now I see it in absolutely different perspective. Gotta think about today conversation more as it opens something for me!!!

Thank you for the time. Hope my answers are right
  • #148,378
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:16pm Mar 10, 2017 4:16pm
Q6E
Q7 Bearish
Q8 yes can spot last B and 2nd to last E aprox have just closed charts candles 15 and 16

I too thank you
  • #148,379
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:23pm Mar 10, 2017 4:23pm
Quoting ashenv
6. Ext 7. Neutral 8. 1.049 - 1.07
agree
  • #148,380
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:32pm Mar 10, 2017 4:32pm
...and we rolled with a slightly bearish W close pre FED but with bulls holding in a very solid day. We couldn't lock 1.087x yet and until then they will have the benefit of the doubt.

For now not much to do or see across the board. Expecting a very active weekly open from both Asia and Europe and a rather choppy US until FED.

We also have potential risk alerts triggered from the UK that will affect FTSE, STERLING*, Dollar and Euro as collateral if this is a big one. If noise is confirmed, we can confirm some Brexit/Scotland issues as early as the Weekend on the typical May nationalistic address to the masses in one of the weekend political shows/newspapers under the table bypassing Parliament and et all ... Here already taken all precaution and positions well ahead and at good value.

sisse

Quoting chester123
{quote} so its E and close is? I would say neutral. cuz its inside the range which is newly 1,06974-,04907.
Indeed. Now obviously you will need to put this basic concepts in perspective (your perspective). We discussed a lot about the mid term, we havent change FA (we still have to discuss a bit more), no changes in outlooks so far....plenty to digest.....
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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