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  • #148,321
  • Mar 10, 2017 1:55pm Mar 10, 2017 1:55pm
Short term (4 wks-12wks max) 1.0730 max to 1.01 bottom
mid term 12wks- 12 moths 1.01- 1.12 top
(btw long-term "lurker". Thoroughly appreciate all the insights and have/ continue to learn day by day)
  • #148,322
  • Mar 10, 2017 2:09pm Mar 10, 2017 2:09pm
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Hi Gator, despite good data usdyen is resisting to break 115.50. You think it has the juice left in it or its down to 113.50.
i hope it can do better than that.. 97.xx or 96.xx.... still waiting to enter.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,323
  • Mar 10, 2017 2:14pm Mar 10, 2017 2:14pm
Ok lets try to organise this better ...

--> The mid term range hasn't changed. Its the same chart we have been trading for a while. There is absolutely no reason neither TA or FA to change it.

For those who have been following since last year. Here is the update mid term chart for reference. Some of you guys will remember exactly the conversation. None of the lines, targets or anything has change at all (same levels, same trades, same all) mid term

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: midupdate.png Size: 308 KB


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,324
  • Mar 10, 2017 2:21pm Mar 10, 2017 2:21pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i still have the uj to go lower, but b4 a 106.xx handle i am shooting to get a S entry.. 114.07 is no surprise (kinda expected).. i am trying to surgically place one pending at 115.61 (missed).. my stop is just above 115.62.. 3.5 pip stop may be enough.. {image}
still waiting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yen trade.PNG Size: 10 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,325
  • Mar 10, 2017 2:27pm Mar 10, 2017 2:27pm
Quoting sisse
Ok lets try to organise this better ... --> The mid term range hasn't changed....
Now let me normalise the chart to have very clear some key concepts:

Here is the same chart normalised to Monthly so we just erase the trees for a second:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: normalizechart.png Size: 421 KB


Now for those who have answered:

Q3: From a strictly TA point of view. What will be the point in the MID TERM (we are getting into the short term in a minute) you will say that bears and an extension is completely out of the natural flow? (forget about timing or short term of FA, just pure TA)

sisse

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} still waiting. {image}
IMO, only Brexit and Europe triggering risk could not spoil that leg up....on the rest looks cook and done deal. GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,326
  • Mar 10, 2017 2:35pm Mar 10, 2017 2:35pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} still waiting. {image}
the yen is near 100 pips below 115.61.. atm 114.65.. i am not advocating longing it.. many times a 100 pips is where it would bounce to the 115.61 from 114.61. i think it's just the way banks play entries, that helps a bounce. so i wouldn't be surprised to see it bounce there
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yen1.PNG Size: 33 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,327
  • Mar 10, 2017 2:37pm Mar 10, 2017 2:37pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Now let me normalise the chart to have very clear some key concepts: Here is the same chart normalised to Monthly so we just erase the trees for a second: {image} Now for those who have answered: Q3: From a strictly TA point of view. What will be the point in the MID TERM (we are getting into the short term in a minute) you will say that bears and an extension is completely out of the natural flow? (forget about timing or short term of FA, just pure TA) sisse {quote} IMO, only Brexit and Europe triggering risk could not spoil that leg up....on...
Im not sure but I would say if next M1 close is above or on 1.081 area.
  • #148,328
  • Mar 10, 2017 2:38pm Mar 10, 2017 2:38pm
1.01, +/- .05
  • #148,329
  • Mar 10, 2017 2:40pm Mar 10, 2017 2:40pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Now let me normalise the chart to have very clear some key concepts: Here is the same chart normalised to Monthly so we just erase the trees for a second: {image} Now for those who have answered: Q3: From a strictly TA point of view. What will be the point in the MID TERM (we are getting into the short term in a minute) you will say that bears and an extension is completely out of the natural flow? (forget about timing or short term of FA, just pure TA) sisse {quote} IMO, only Brexit and Europe triggering risk could not spoil that leg up....on...
i had it as missed a month back.. the risk at +115.62, and a missed norm at 115.61 seemed like a good r/r play for me.. if wrong, i will have egg on my face for 4 pips.. i could tighten up to 3 pips.. i just dont know what the spread will be and may get caught up in a spread widening rollover s/o.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,330
  • Mar 10, 2017 2:46pm Mar 10, 2017 2:46pm
Gator. Not wrong, but think it will overshot your sl. ( nxt wk)
  • #148,331
  • Mar 10, 2017 2:50pm Mar 10, 2017 2:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i had it as missed a month back.. the risk at +115.62, and a missed norm at 115.61 seemed like a good r/r play for me.. if wrong, i will have egg on my face for 4 pips..
I see your trade in charts ... I will only join you via risk...

sisse
Quoting chester123
{quote} Im not sure but I would say if next M1 close is above or on 1.081 area.
Why? ...let me give you the next step.

Here is the short term range from a mid term perspective:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: midtermshortrem.png Size: 112 KB


1. Why 1.081x? Where is the high of the compression range?
2. Can you spot the accumulation/distribution happening again on the bottom of range? Exactly the same at it happened in the top.
3. From a mid term perspective in the short term (we'll dig deeper in a few) can you see what is happening price wise?. From a TA perspective is INSIDE BAR trading (call it a triangle a pennant or what have you as you wish is irrelevant)
4. Can you spot that we are sitting exactly in the middle of that compression? That mean we are trading "Fair Value" in he short term. Its the opposite of in the extremes where you one side is heavily unbalance toward the other.
5. Finally 2 questions:

Q4: From a TA point of view only? In downtrend where are the higher odd of a breakthrough in a consolidation?
Q5: From a FA (here is the link to that part) What do you think is the outlook right now mid and short term?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,332
  • Mar 10, 2017 2:50pm Mar 10, 2017 2:50pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Im not sure but I would say if next M1 close is above or on 1.081 area.
disagree, I don't think there is time from confirmed hikes- I would look for next M close to be below 1.05xx

the dot plot will be updated as well, signalling more or less hikes
  • #148,333
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:01pm Mar 10, 2017 3:01pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} disagree, I don't think there is time from confirmed hikes- I would look for next M close to be below 1.05xx the dot plot will be updated as well, signalling more or less hikes
looks like hikes are not a surprise.. but what if something happens between now and then.. like a rogue tweet, N. korea rogue missile or FBI indites/(makes a public statement about espionage about) someone. i can't bet against a tweet, especially on a weekend. something that destabilise markets enough to cause the uj to take that plunge while its chart wise set up to drop.. if so equities at highs have room to retreat..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,334
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:04pm Mar 10, 2017 3:04pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I see your trade in charts ... I will only join you via risk... sisse {quote} Why? ...let me give you the next step. Here is the short term range from a mid term perspective: {image} 1. Why 1.081x? Where is the high of the compression range? 2. Can you spot the accumulation/distribution happening again on the bottom of range? Exactly the same at it happened in the top. 3. From a mid term perspective in the short term (we'll dig deeper in a few) can you see what is happening price wise?. From a TA perspective is INSIDE BAR trading (call it...
well, the high is range of 079-082. no?

Q4: to the downside.
Q5: ST = sell, MT= strong sell.

But if there is acu-dis happening on ST (staying in ST range) as seen as a temporar stop on MT, should not we have ST neutral? Maybe we have wrong evaluation of ST FA.
  • #148,335
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:06pm Mar 10, 2017 3:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} looks like hikes are not a surprise.. but what if something happens between now and then.. like a rogue tweet, N. korea rogue missile or FBI indites/(makes a public statement about espionage about) someone. i can't bet against a tweet, especially on a weekend. something that destabilise markets enough to cause the uj to take that plunge while its chart wise set up to drop.. if so equities at highs have room to retreat..
of course they aren't a surprise, but hikes (and multiples) are still dollar bullish, as is fiscal expansionary policy

not withstanding other geopolitical risks across the globe, random wtf tweets, war, etc

mofu- 1.24xx or 1.27xx was invalidated with the new low Dec 2016, maybe both- has been a long time since I checked
  • #148,336
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:06pm Mar 10, 2017 3:06pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} disagree, I don't think there is time from confirmed hikes- I would look for next M close to be below 1.05xx the dot plot will be updated as well, signalling more or less hikes
yes, I do not expect it there either. I was just answering the question what would be a clear technical signal for me that the MT move down is finished.
  • #148,337
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:11pm Mar 10, 2017 3:11pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} disagree, I don't think there is time from confirmed hikes- I would look for next M close to be below 1.05xx the dot plot will be updated as well, signalling more or less hikes
Thats one of the topic pending in the last pages.

-> Expectations for hikes were at 95% last Friday, after this week we are in 'done deal' since last Friday.

On the expectations front we are already in the next chapter which is how many and how big. Some hawkish hands are pricing at 25% of a 0.5 /.75 as early as next week.

--> As you clearly point out, next week we have the 'Actual fact' confirmation. A flop will not do anything in term of exactions as it will be still a 'done deal', however short erm it will trigger the test to 1.087x as the boat is (after today a healthier less) heavily loaded on Dollars.

--> The rumour from ECB today was because yesterday Draghi was extremely clear that nothing has changed (for now) as its widely expected with election on the horizon and Trump yet to give details on protectionism and etc.

We are in a extreme divergence between Dollar and Euro and just the pure chance of making that gap even wide (i.e double hikes in the US or Risk in Europe) unlock rather major danger levels in the Euro both on the macro economic front and in inflation so no wonder that if we break down we won't break down on a smooth ebb and flow but rather in a capitulation leg ....

In my books, there is nothing to overanalyse here. We are trading in the same choppy range since FED DEC in Euro while Dollar and Gold are behaving as expected. Next week is FED and then we'll revaluate facts and expectations on the monetary policy front.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,338
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:12pm Mar 10, 2017 3:12pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} of course they aren't a surprise, but hikes (and multiples) are still dollar bullish, as is fiscal expansionary policy not withstanding other geopolitical risks across the globe, random wtf tweets, war, etc mofu- 1.24xx or 1.27xx was invalidated, maybe both- has been a long time since I checked
lets c how this plays next week..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.PNG Size: 37 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #148,339
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:13pm Mar 10, 2017 3:13pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} yes, I do not expect it there either. I was just answering the question what would be a clear technical signal for me that the MT move down is finished.
oh! apologize, I misread the context then- I thought that seemed weird of you
  • #148,340
  • Mar 10, 2017 3:15pm Mar 10, 2017 3:15pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} well, the high is range of 079-082. no? Q4: to the downside. Q5: ST = sell, MT= strong sell. But if there is acu-dis happening on ST (staying in ST range) as seen as a temporar stop on MT, should not we have ST neutral? Maybe we have wrong evaluation of ST FA.
Oh come on !!!!! you are making me angry mate ... ...

Ok lets review some very BASIC price analysis. Let me walk you through quickly instead of just throwing you some definitions and weird names. Try to reply quickly (or anybody.

a. Is this is a break? Yes or No?

Attached Image

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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