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The Really Useless Thread

  • #148,301
  • Mar 10, 2017 12:14pm Mar 10, 2017 12:14pm
Quoting change
{quote} Well it could go south, actualy i loaded some, but roll play should be by definition in calm waters not in NFP day, at least so i understood ... What i don't get in this movement is timing: someone can is able to shed some light?
I think the day is over ... Expecting both a roll and heavy bull day close ....
Let's C
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,302
  • Mar 10, 2017 12:16pm Mar 10, 2017 12:16pm
Lots of questions and good posts. Sense frustration from some holding shorts and almost happy posters on the long side feeling a move out of the choppy range might be possible...

Before we dig into details as I think this time it deserves a good discussion, let's wrap up the day on the bottom of the hour first.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,303
  • Mar 10, 2017 12:19pm Mar 10, 2017 12:19pm
Last dash of seasoning added 675. Now simmer until done.
  • #148,304
  • Mar 10, 2017 12:28pm Mar 10, 2017 12:28pm
Bulls hijacked this play . Still holding my positions but looking for a graceful exit. Should be some resistance here at 1.0675 level.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,305
  • Mar 10, 2017 12:33pm Mar 10, 2017 12:33pm
Perhaps it is a play to clear the soft hands 0675 - 071x

A bit curious to me- is that all pairs are in sync today, selling dollar* in a good news is bad news scenario- most of the week euro* has been out of sync with the buying of dollar*, which changed today

Still, my thoughts are that it's a play for weak hands that have jumped on since hikes probability jumped- the strong hands are above .072x+
  • #148,306
  • Mar 10, 2017 12:48pm Mar 10, 2017 12:48pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Perhaps it is a play to clear the soft hands 0675 - 071x A bit curious to me- is that all pairs are in sync today, selling dollar* in a good news is bad news scenario- most of the week euro* has been out of sync with the buying of dollar*, which changed today Still, my thoughts are that it's a play for weak hands that have jumped on since hikes probability jumped- the strong hands are above .072x+
I never realized just how soft and weak my hands are til now.
  • #148,307
  • Mar 10, 2017 1:02pm Mar 10, 2017 1:02pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Perhaps it is a play to clear the soft hands 0675 - 071x A bit curious to me- is that all pairs are in sync today, selling dollar* in a good news is bad news scenario- most of the week euro* has been out of sync with the buying of dollar*, which changed today Still, my thoughts are that it's a play for weak hands that have jumped on since hikes probability jumped- the strong hands are above .072x+
I agree with that soft hands play. Bet we will be sitting back by 1,061x by FED moment.
  • #148,308
  • Mar 10, 2017 1:08pm Mar 10, 2017 1:08pm
Expensive tickets indeed...
  • #148,309
  • Mar 10, 2017 1:09pm Mar 10, 2017 1:09pm
Quoting Earleone
Bulls hijacked this play . Still holding my positions but looking for a graceful exit. Should be some resistance here at 1.0675 level.
Ditto, very strange action. Almost just a carry trade, where soft hands and smart money jumped on the yesterdays move. Very small moves on the other majors. Hmm.

DX futures trading lower than the cash market (dollar).
  • #148,310
  • Mar 10, 2017 1:12pm Mar 10, 2017 1:12pm
...and that was pretty much it for the day. A relatively soft session for a clear overshoot in NFP sending clear signals that hikes are starting to weight heavier in Equities. The easy part of the move is long gone.

On the rest of the board, the highlight of the day without question is Euro in a very strong day especially given good NFP. A copy/paste from last Friday and both on the same hikes confirmation ...wont go in more details so we can discuss in detail in the next few post till the roll...

To wrap a rather key week on the macro front.

-> Lots of very sketchy news on ECB coming in the afternoon from a familiar 'unknown source' of the last 3 times since December. Sound out of tone and couldn't find anything around here to confirm it except the usual 'leak and spread with a fan' ...discarding this as non sense gossip for now.

-> More importantly, and in contrast lots of confirmed noise from the UK next week. We are going to have Brexit chapter 2 continuation drama in the following weeks. UK will announce jumping into the abyss next few days that will kick start the negotiations as expected since June just in time for French and Dutch election to cause maximum disruption (felling ashamed for the UK)

-> Even more importantly we have a potential double whammy with Scotland and prolly N.Ireland (this one not confirmed) announcing a separation referendum that seem imminent for 2018. Finally and if we didn't have enough in that front also strong rumours all over the place of May calling early election very soon to wipe out the political front ...

Lots of detail will come in the next few days but for what is important here: RISK via brexit will be back in the table at the same time we kick star European election in Holland and France. All eyes on FTSE and Sterling*.

------

Now lets talk Euro ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,311
  • Mar 10, 2017 1:13pm Mar 10, 2017 1:13pm
Quoting Bud Foxx
Its all about R:R Chancing a long at 1.0510 SL 100 pips TP at 1.1000 we had a 13 candle countdown (Demark) on the Monthly chart. When this countdown works it tends to spot a trend reversal ( We had also a 9 count during January 2015 which actually failed to reverse..) If it pans out we should get a run to 1.10 area Yes, it is counter trend and counter FA, but I think the market has already priced in the March hike and since everyone is on the boat to the same direction its going to tip over.. we need up before down. Good luck to all {image}

Quoting Bud Foxx
{quote} {quote} Starting to like this trade more and more.. Euro just needs to clear that bi@tch 1.0610 level and 1.0630 (monthly pivot) to really start cooking
Still holding this trade Long position...
and added some more today on the break of 1.0640 (this last addition is rather close to the market price so I have Set SL of -10 pips on it at this time, closely babysitting this one.)
Crossing my fingers for a test of 1.0700 today.. and a stay above 1.0660 for continuation of upwards momentum



Good luck all
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  • #148,312
  • Mar 10, 2017 1:31pm Mar 10, 2017 1:31pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} I agree with that soft hands play. Bet we will be sitting back by1,061x by FED moment.
I agree with you that we will be back by FED, but for me its dollar closer to 102 marker (looking for a push to 103 highs) as dollar has been my benchmark to judge this movement by

Quoting goosebone
{quote} I never realized just how soft and weak my hands are til now.
Maybe that gives you an advantage, if you know you are a soft hand, and where the strong hands are....you know whether to hold, fold em, walk or run away *que music!*
  • #148,313
  • Mar 10, 2017 1:31pm Mar 10, 2017 1:31pm
I have been reading with detail the last few pages lots of interesting comments and lots of questions.

Lets try to make this as productive for all as possible to see if we can have a good discussion so lets go at the same time from the macro to the micro, and from the FA to the TA to see if we can meet somewhere in the middle that make sense.

Q1: -> Can anybody want to jump a tell us the short term range currently in play? . Just the top/bottom and flip nothing fancy or complicate.

Q2: -> Can anybody want to jump a tell us the mid term range currently in play? . Just the top/bottom and flip nothing fancy or complicate.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,314
  • Mar 10, 2017 1:41pm Mar 10, 2017 1:41pm
Right baby bathed so I'll put myself in the firing line and have a go at this;

Short: 1.0490 --> 1.0680 Flip 1.0580

Mid: 1.0330 --> 1.0870 Flip 1.0610
  • #148,315
  • Mar 10, 2017 1:43pm Mar 10, 2017 1:43pm
Q1: Top 1.083x // Low 1.039x // Flip 1.061
Q2: Top 1.14xx // Low 1.03xx // Flip 1.083X
  • #148,316
  • Mar 10, 2017 1:44pm Mar 10, 2017 1:44pm
Quoting suntan
Right baby bathed so I'll put myself in the firing line and have a go at this; Short: 1.0490 --> 1.0680 Flip 1.0580 Mid: 1.0330 --> 1.0870 Flip 1.0610
Disagree why?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,317
  • Edited 1:59pm Mar 10, 2017 1:45pm | Edited 1:59pm
Quoting sisse
I have been reading with detail the last few pages lots of interesting comments and lots of questions. Lets try to make this as productive for all as possible to see if we can have a good discussion so lets go at the same time from the macro to the micro, and from the FA to the TA to see if we can meet somewhere in the middle that make sense. Q1: -> Can anybody want to jump a tell us the short term range currently in play? . Just the top/bottom and flip nothing fancy or complicate. Q2: -> Can anybody want to jump a tell us the mid term range currently...
My ST map:

1,039 low extreme - 1,053 low - 1,064 flip - 1,075 top - 1,085 top extreme

My MT map:

1,061 low extreme - 1,082 low - 1,096 flip - 1,117 top - 1,136 extreme

Just to ilustrate (basically what I always post):

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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P.S.: sorry, wanna edit the positions. got todays loser running there ok, edited
  • #148,318
  • Mar 10, 2017 1:49pm Mar 10, 2017 1:49pm
Short-term: 1.048 to 1.082 and 1.063 as a flip
Mid-term: 1.03 to 1.13 and 1.082 as a flip.
  • #148,319
  • Mar 10, 2017 1:51pm Mar 10, 2017 1:51pm
Quoting sisse
i have been reading with detail the last few pages lots of interesting comments and lots of questions. Lets try to make this as productive for all as possible to see if we can have a good discussion so lets go at the same time from the macro to the micro, and from the fa to the ta to see if we can meet somewhere in the middle that make sense. Q1: -> can anybody want to jump a tell us the short term range currently in play? . Just the top/bottom and flip nothing fancy or complicate. Q2: -> can anybody want to jump a tell us the mid term range currently...
r1 --> 1.145x --> 1.096x --> 1.038x

r2 --> 1.087x --> 1.063x --> 1.038x
  • #148,320
  • Mar 10, 2017 1:52pm Mar 10, 2017 1:52pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Disagree why? sisse
Not sure, too close to market?
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