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The Really Useless Thread

  • #148,281
  • Mar 10, 2017 7:05am Mar 10, 2017 7:05am
Stops to BE+1
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used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #148,282
  • Mar 10, 2017 7:12am Mar 10, 2017 7:12am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Added third UJ long 115.27. 115250 SL.
Hi Janpec,
still having your longs or do you now look for a short??
  • #148,283
  • Mar 10, 2017 7:43am Mar 10, 2017 7:43am
#ECB SAID TO HAVE DISCUSSED WHETHER RATES CAN RISE BEFORE QE END - BBG

as if there is not enough reasons for euro to rise
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,284
  • Mar 10, 2017 7:45am Mar 10, 2017 7:45am
Quoting hoom
#ECB SAID TO HAVE DISCUSSED WHETHER RATES CAN RISE BEFORE QE END - BBG as if there is not enough reasons for euro to rise
*Council didnt discuss any specific scenario or timeline and hasn’t made any formal decisions on a strategy ECB spokesman declines to comment

denied
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,285
  • Mar 10, 2017 7:49am Mar 10, 2017 7:49am
Quoting hoom
#ECB SAID TO HAVE DISCUSSED WHETHER RATES CAN RISE BEFORE QE END - BBG as if there is not enough reasons for euro to rise
but the good nfp numbers meant downhill for euro, isnt this the sentiment All of us are having. Now we have to think for a near reasonable reason for rise in eurousd . Lets just say market is manupilative.
  • #148,286
  • Mar 10, 2017 7:51am Mar 10, 2017 7:51am
Quoting sisse
....5 For longs. A simple range we have a clearer entries and targets averages: Longs @ 1.057x [check] -> TP1 1.067x -> TP2 1.076x -> STP 1.047x --> Min r:r 1 : 1 sisse
Opening range completed.

All markets on track except like last week with Yellen Euro still alone holding against the flow. Tracking 1.064x for the rest of the session as only level in play ....

A quick update on the ECB/NFP combo play in the thread.

I will apply 'don't be a dick for a tick' rule and clear TP1 for those that went long ...

A quick update on the iteration all triggereed ... GL all

Short @ 1.060x [check] -> TP1 1.046x -> TP2 1.035x -> STP 1.071x ---> Min r:r 1 : 1.5

For longs. A simple range we have a clearer entries and targets averages:

Longs @ 1.057x [check] -> TP1 1.067x [check] -> TP2 1.076x -> STP 1.047x --> Min r:r 1 : 1

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,287
  • Mar 10, 2017 8:09am Mar 10, 2017 8:09am
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Hi Janpec, still having your longs or do you now look for a short??
Last third long stoped -1R. Both previous longs stoped BE, altough i did took 3R alltogether from them (50% chips from table on 115.4X), 4X was main extended short term target, 116.1 had a chance but looks like not this time. Not looking for any UJ shorts but i will be looking for dollar shorts on EU next week.
EU holding above the highs nicely now, structure wise we could be setting for some higher short term move now. Ill track EU and UK100 for next week for longs, both needing some development first.
Covered nice play on TGXT ramp straight from open as expected, 1 buck, covered for 2R the rest stoped on BE.
  • #148,288
  • Mar 10, 2017 8:23am Mar 10, 2017 8:23am
IMF close to joining Greek bailout - Bloomberg

Bloomberg is long euro , now you know
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,289
  • Mar 10, 2017 8:23am Mar 10, 2017 8:23am
Stopped on euro shorts, can't imagine what would have happened if we hadn't had a NFP overshoot today and an inline (dovish on inflation!) ECB yesterday. Thought it was a no brainer/direct play.
  • #148,290
  • Edited 8:38am Mar 10, 2017 8:26am | Edited 8:38am
Quoting Replicant
Stopped on euro shorts, can't imagine what would have happened if we hadn't had a NFP overshoot today and an inline (dovish on inflation!) ECB yesterday. Thought it was a no brainer/direct play.
almost same here (stop not triggered yet) = trying to play the flow on top of the ST positions. aim was to preposition for FED with NFP but that stupid ECB comment distorted the flow even though its absoutely useless information with not truth guaratnee.

Also I do not understand what else is needed for the euro to break down and it needs to happen soon cuz the window for ST leg/MT extension is quickly closing unless we get a major risk-off event from european politics - actually Im thinking that we may not see the leg and we forming a LT bottom now from time perspective. Once we clean EU elections with EU macro in uptrend and risk-off potentially only coming from non-EU side (US etc.) Euro is gonna be supported from all fronts - as a carry trade/good macro/end of easing cycle and it will be a trigger for major ST, MT, LT change of outlooks.

So my Q is (to sisse and others): how far are we from that change of outlooks? is it still rational to expect to ST leg/MT extension? Sisse wrote that it would be fast and furious so it can fit into the time window. But where is the time limit? When we pass French elections?
  • #148,291
  • Mar 10, 2017 8:32am Mar 10, 2017 8:32am
Quoting chester123
{quote} almost same here (stop not triggered yet) = trying to play the flow on top of the ST positions. aim was to preposition for FED with NFP but that stupid ECB comment distorted the flow even though its absoutely useless information with not truth guaratnee.
I think NY will decide the real direction after EUR goes home. I hedged my short and I plan to get out from my long at 1.078 as soon as I see confirmation of the reversal.
  • #148,292
  • Mar 10, 2017 8:37am Mar 10, 2017 8:37am
Quoting Pharm0r
Goose- remember that map I showed you where I said I wanted to reload? Watch for the norm @ 1.06751 +- 5%
that's one mofu lvl you got there

I hope it holds
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #148,293
  • Mar 10, 2017 8:52am Mar 10, 2017 8:52am
Quoting hoom
{quote} that's one mofu lvl you got there I hope it holds
It is the smaller red within the larger blue that I've been waiting for, both are showing good technical respect. Both have been the triggers Im following mid-term

credit due to goose for the blue one, originally i counted the trump inauguration candle

blue points to 0.99xx handle....haven't heard much parity talk this year....which is surprising because it was all over the headlines in 2014...now we are lower
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  • #148,294
  • Mar 10, 2017 9:02am Mar 10, 2017 9:02am
Hi guys was bzy with business so right on time with a fresh new entry @1.067x rest still in play ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,295
  • Mar 10, 2017 9:06am Mar 10, 2017 9:06am
ok my last tade stops be like
Attached Image

So as planned back short @0675
What is mofu? be it like....
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used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #148,296
  • Mar 10, 2017 9:10am Mar 10, 2017 9:10am
mofu just a form of Fibonacci trigger

Don't get caught up in it, it's been illustrated in the past that most triggers work so long as you're on the right side
  • #148,297
  • Mar 10, 2017 9:48am Mar 10, 2017 9:48am
Quoting Pharm0r
mofu just a form of Fibonacci trigger Don't get caught up in it, it's been illustrated in the past that most triggers work so long as you're on the right side
Indeed, wise man once said 'it's not about being right or wrong, it's about being on the right side'
And if it's 'not a short' it's probably a long on Monday......
Good weekend y'all
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #148,298
  • Mar 10, 2017 9:49am Mar 10, 2017 9:49am
Any1 expecting a roll ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,299
  • Mar 10, 2017 9:57am Mar 10, 2017 9:57am
Quoting primejarvis
Any1 expecting a roll ...
Well it could go south, actualy i loaded some, but roll play should be by definition in calm waters not in NFP day, at least so i understood ...

What i don't get in this movement is timing: someone can is able to shed some light?
  • #148,300
  • Mar 10, 2017 10:06am Mar 10, 2017 10:06am
Quote
I don't want to be the jackass 'I told you so' as I know many of you are on the short time in real trading but I would like to strongly recommend to explore this part in detail (many potential aha moments may get trigger) why 1.061x wasn't the best entry for this play ... We'll discuss later during calmer times but I highly recommend to bookmark and study this week play. sisse

Very interested in the discussion regarding this post.

The current movement in EURUSD seems out of sync with fundamental analysis, there's maybe an element of technical involved I'm not sure.

I expected this retrace but I'm not too sure why ha ha! It seems to me like positioning which is something I maybe don't understand in any great depth.

I realise markets don't move in a straight line and perhaps the March rate rise is fully priced in but with such a good nfp this move seems out of context.

Anyway just some quick thoughts on a page - looking forward to a more in-depth discussion on this topic.
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