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Pivot Trading

  • #7,821
  • Mar 10, 2017 10:24am Mar 10, 2017 10:24am
still long on EA full steam north bound
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #7,822
  • Mar 10, 2017 11:00am Mar 10, 2017 11:00am
Quoting Davit
still long on EA full steam north bound
perhaps it will more exciting next week
  • #7,823
  • Mar 10, 2017 4:20pm Mar 10, 2017 4:20pm
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/...imb-2017-03-10

"Stockpiles of iron ore at major Chinese ports reached 130.05-million tonnes as of March 3, SteelHome said, the most since 2004 when the consultancy began tracking the data."

"With reduced export opportunities, as a result of trade actions in various countries, China now looks to its own domestic market and its investment in infrastructure to consume the oversupply," it said.

This could weigh heavily on the Aussie dollar.
  • #7,824
  • Mar 10, 2017 5:44pm Mar 10, 2017 5:44pm
Quoting Blackopal
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/...imb-2017-03-10 "Stockpiles of iron ore at major Chinese ports reached 130.05-million tonnes as of March 3, SteelHome said, the most since 2004 when the consultancy began tracking the data." "With reduced export opportunities, as a result of trade actions in various countries,...
Hi buddy I posted same article on Chinese ports and at that time still Aussie was rolling in money.I think its a factor however question is when will it influence price?
To me EA still under appreciated so looking for 1.44 there.
Good luck next week
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #7,825
  • Mar 10, 2017 11:11pm Mar 10, 2017 11:11pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi buddy I posted same article on Chinese ports and at that time still Aussie was rolling in money.I think its a factor however question is when will it influence price? To me EA still under appreciated so looking for 1.44 there. Good luck next week
When will it influence price?..... I was thinking the same thing, mate. It's hard to tell when the drop will come, but economics 101 says when supply exceeds demand, expect prices to drop. And the ore is piling up on the docks. It's becoming increasingly difficult to justify high prices for ore while the stockpiles grow.

This could be the beginning.....

"The most-traded iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was flat at 654.50 yuan ($95) a tonne by midday. The contract, which touched a record high of 741.50 yuan last month, has lost 3.5% this week, the most since the week ending December 23."

I find this part interesting, but I don't know the details it refers to...".as a result of trade actions in various countries," Trump has pulled the U.S. out of the Trans Pacific Trade Pact, Australia and Japan are involved in trying to implement a deal to replace it. I don't know if this has immediate ramifications for iron ore and or steel. But if the "trade actions" referred to here are a recent development, as implied, then it's possible that the loss of demand will quicken the pace of the supply build up beyond the norm, which was already showing excess.

Cheers
  • #7,826
  • Edited 5:32am Mar 11, 2017 3:34am | Edited 5:32am
We need to focus on what had recently happened (this creates sentiment) and what is coming up.

Institutional traders are always looking ahead
Look at the ECB this week, just a mention of potential hike in rates before QE has finished set the Euro to go up.

Looking at the AUDUSD

Aussie iron ore is off since the end of Feb. This has a cyclical element to it. Have not checked to see when it is likley to come back.

USD : There was a miss on wage inflation on Friday. Yellen had referred to figs this week as being important. Traders on Friday now think that there is a lesser chance of three hikes than previously. Hence the dip in the dollar. There obviously is an element if buy the rumour sell the fact as well.

All eyes will be on the Fomc statement. If 3 hikes are still on I would expect some renewed strength in the dollar.
It all depends on the tone from the Fed. Anything outside of what has been priced in will move it. Overall I'm a bit bearish. But lets see.
  • #7,827
  • Mar 12, 2017 9:40am Mar 12, 2017 9:40am
Quoting Fader123
We need to focus on what had recently happened (this creates sentiment) and what is coming up. Institutional traders are always looking ahead Look at the ECB this week, just a mention of potential hike in rates before QE has finished set the Euro to go up. Looking at the AUDUSD Aussie iron ore is off since the end of Feb. This has a cyclical element to it. Have not checked to see when it is likley to come back. USD : There was a miss on wage inflation on Friday. Yellen had referred to figs this week as being important. Traders on Friday now think...
thanks for the post
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #7,828
  • Mar 12, 2017 9:54am Mar 12, 2017 9:54am
Good morning guys
Funny I have been reading article after article about stellar US economy and possible "overheating" term used by the Feds a lot.
Looking at US growth barely at 2% I find it laughable that Feds think economy is possibly overheating hence they need to raise rates to dampen spending and borrowing....(isn't growth by product of spending and borrowing?)
We are still recovering after effects of 2008 !Lets 1st see what Trump has for economy before Feds going on hike rhetoric rather mindlessly.There is a real danger of very strong US dollar causing developing economies to crush and this has serious ramifications both in South America and Asia.This is particularity true on countries whose debt payments are in USD.
Anyway I am bit skeptical of hyper rosy picture of US economy.Much remains to be seen.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #7,829
  • Mar 12, 2017 10:10am Mar 12, 2017 10:10am
Hi Davit

Being doing a bit of research (what I should be doing before I start typing)
There is one economic commentor who I rate: Diane Swonk. She is more hawkish
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/10/the-impact.html
Also Goldman sacks thinks that we are due another hike in June.
The Ft thinks the Fed will be more hawkish
There is a very good post on here about the 3 month T bond that backs this this up
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=570673
So I would expect more strength in the dollar
But I take your point we are not out of the woods yet and a strong dollar only hurts US exports.
There are some important meetings this week that will affect the market
As you say lets see
  • #7,830
  • Mar 12, 2017 10:22am Mar 12, 2017 10:22am
Quoting Fader123
Hi Davit Being doing a bit of research (what I should be doing before I start typing) There is one economic commentor who I rate: Diane Swonk. She is more hawkish http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/10/the-impact.html Also Goldman sacks thinks that we are due another hike in June. The Ft thinks the Fed will be more hawkish There is a very good post on here about the 3 month T bond that backs this this up https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=570673 So I would expect more strength in the dollar But I take your point we are not...
Well we just need to wait for Weds to see what Feds have to say.Anything Goldman Sacks say should be dismissed specially when they say it publicly.They are real market makers and have resources to cause serious spikes.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #7,831
  • Mar 12, 2017 11:31am Mar 12, 2017 11:31am
Quoting fxanalysis
Hi Davit! I live in different timezone, had to deal with inserting week open and close dates for weekly pivots, as I understand that must be done every week manually, that is not handy. I don't know if there is update that does this automatically, but I modified your pivot indicator which was in the beginning of this Thread. Thanks for this Thread, it's great! {image} If you want to use automatic time adjustment then turn brokers candle to false(as previously) , autoTimeAdjustment to true and set timeZoneOfData to timezone(GMT) which you want to...
@fxanalysis

Is it possible add the feature that showing different pivots with regarding the time of the chart. For instance, for 30min showing Daily pivots, for 1H showing Weekly pivots.
  • #7,832
  • Mar 12, 2017 11:37am Mar 12, 2017 11:37am
Quoting MoneyTalks58
{quote} @fxanalysis Is it possible add the feature that showing different pivots with regarding the time of the chart. For instance, for 30min showing Daily pivots, for 1H showing Weekly pivots.
why would you want to complicate trading more then it should be?Remember each variable you add you create new conditions in your trading and that could be net negative
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #7,833
  • Mar 12, 2017 12:00pm Mar 12, 2017 12:00pm
Quoting MoneyTalks58
{quote} @fxanalysis Is it possible add the feature that showing different pivots with regarding the time of the chart. For instance, for 30min showing Daily pivots, for 1H showing Weekly pivots.
I tried using the Daily pivots on 15 min tf and all it did was make me emotional. I closed entries prematurely because the Daily pivots would "indicate" a reversal. And although majority of times it did it was only on lower time frames. Trades I closed eventually ended going towards weekly pivots. Left alot of money on the table doing so.

Stick with this method, it's all you need.
Invest in Life
  • #7,834
  • Edited 12:15pm Mar 12, 2017 12:01pm | Edited 12:15pm
President Donald Trump is half way to marking his first 100 days in office, and as it turns out the so-called Trump rally is stacking up fairy well compared with past presidents during their midpoint to 100. Trump hits the 50-day milestone on Saturday.

The S&P 500 index SPX, +0.33% is on track to post its best return in the first 50 days off a presidential term since Bill Clintons first term in 1993, when the broad-market index rose 4.7%. In fact, it is the best 50-day performance for a GOP commander-in-chief ever and the sixth best performance over that period, based on the data (see table below):


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how...ice-2017-03-10
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Invest in Life
  • #7,835
  • Mar 12, 2017 6:55pm Mar 12, 2017 6:55pm
Quoting MoneyTalks58
{quote} @fxanalysis Is it possible add the feature that showing different pivots with regarding the time of the chart. For instance, for 30min showing Daily pivots, for 1H showing Weekly pivots.
Thank you for suggestion , yes , it is possible and because it doesn't correspond with Davits strategy ,there is no reason to make any changes.
Regards and green pips to all!
Know thyself
  • #7,836
  • Mar 13, 2017 3:55am Mar 13, 2017 3:55am
Very early to call but EUR/GBP may be one to watch
  • #7,837
  • Mar 13, 2017 5:49am Mar 13, 2017 5:49am
EU building positions
I usually wait for R/S 61 to be reached first, but I've noticed EUR USD can set off at 38 if combined with higher time frame support/resistances
Possible drawdown incoming, but small positions added.

EDIT*
EUR CAD looks like a better trade in terms of risk reward
Not going to post chart as it's way too messy.
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  • #7,838
  • Edited 8:14am Mar 13, 2017 6:12am | Edited 8:14am
AJ rejection off R38

Edit: Took a few pips, will see if I can re-enter based on PA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,839
  • Mar 13, 2017 7:34am Mar 13, 2017 7:34am
Quoting duderoo1
AJ rejection off R38 {image}
Psst
Careful with those EMA + Vol indicators
  • #7,840
  • Mar 13, 2017 8:14am Mar 13, 2017 8:14am
Quoting E7i
{quote} Psst Careful with those EMA + Vol indicators
Thanks!
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