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Predicting direction of economic releases

  • #21
  • Sep 7, 2006 3:17pm Sep 7, 2006 3:17pm
Quoting more
@ngdaniel: I am not sure if I got it... Do you make your own predictions or do you trade in direction to the forecasts? I heard about the following strategy, e.g.:

NFP: previous 120K, forecast: 95K

Now you place a long trade in the Euro because the forecasts show a weaker US-economy and therefore a weaker USD. The "System" is always trading in the forecasts' direction.

Is that comparable to what you are doing? If yes, WHEN do you place the trade? The forecasts are known by everybody long time before the news come out. So I am not really sure what predictions you are making for your trades.

Thanks!
I don't trade a generic "system". Become the "system". I give you the most simplest "system" of all. It is readily available to every intelligent thinking person who has the basic skills of reading, writing and arithmetic. Let me spell it out for you: READ, LISTEN, AND WATCH THE FINANCIAL NEWS.

THIS IS THE WHOLE SYSTEM
  • #22
  • Sep 7, 2006 3:23pm Sep 7, 2006 3:23pm
Quoting PeterFM
I think there is more research required than just looking at the FF calendar.
You'll need to do more in-depth reseach than that.
Look at the original post and see the range of sources outlined, for example I went to Bloomberg's site and you can get TV webcasts of analysis.
It's a start anyway
Peter
Peter,

If it wasn't easy, I wouldn't do it. In-depth research and analysis doesn't seem easy to do. Why do that when Bloomberg TV, CNN, and CNBC's Squawk Box does it all for you? They do the research, talk about it because they want to create a headline to grab market share, and you use it to make a profit.

You can't get any system as simple as this. READ, LISTEN AND WATCH THE FINANCIAL NEWS WITH YOUR BASIC UNDERSTANDING OF READING, WRITING, AND ARITHMETIC. Become a free, intelligent thinking person.
  • #23
  • Sep 7, 2006 3:33pm Sep 7, 2006 3:33pm
Quoting ngdaniel
Peter,

If it wasn't easy, I wouldn't do it. In-depth research and analysis doesn't seem easy to do. Why do that when Bloomberg TV, CNN, and CNBC's Squawk Box does it all for you? They do the research, talk about it because they want to create a headline to grab market share, and you use it to make a profit.

You can't get any system as simple as this. READ, LISTEN AND WATCH THE FINANCIAL NEWS WITH YOUR BASIC UNDERSTANDING OF READING, WRITING, AND ARITHMETIC. Become a free, intelligent thinking person.
I was trying to make the point to
Quote
Originally Posted by more
that he needed to go back to your original post and check those sources, not try and guess at what the calendar was telling him, or base a 'system' on it.
I understand completely what you're telling me and the message has been taken on-board.
Peter
  • #24
  • Sep 7, 2006 3:38pm Sep 7, 2006 3:38pm
Quoting PeterFM
I was trying to make the point to that he needed to go back to your original post and check those sources, not try and guess at what the calendar was telling him, or base a 'system' on it.
I understand completely what you're telling me and the message has been taken on-board.
Peter
Sorry Peter, I have been responding to so many postings on this topic that I may have missed a meaning here and there. Posting is exhausting.
  • #25
  • Sep 7, 2006 3:59pm Sep 7, 2006 3:59pm
I was flipping through CNBC World and Bloomberg really early this morning sometime around 2 or 3am I think. They were talking about how the Yen was going to appreciate and probably be down around 110.00 by the end of 2006. I turned on my charts just a little later on and the Yen pairs were in fact already falling as we all saw happen. Id say after that happening and reading this post I will be paying more attention to news casts. I guess I never paid much attention to these cable news networks before because when I first started to get interested in trading everybody was saying on the web sites and forums to not pay attention to what others say and use your own system.
  • #26
  • Sep 7, 2006 4:11pm Sep 7, 2006 4:11pm
Quoting jhanson
I was flipping through CNBC World and Bloomberg really early this morning sometime around 2 or 3am I think. They were talking about how the Yen was going to appreciate and probably be down around 110.00 by the end of 2006. I turned on my charts just a little later on and the Yen pairs were in fact already falling as we all saw happen. Id say after that happening and reading this post I will be paying more attention to news casts. I guess I never paid much attention to these cable news networks before because when I first started to get interested in trading everybody was saying on the web sites and forums to not pay attention to what others say and use your own system.
Welcome to becoming a free, intelligent thinking person. The USD has gained strength all day against the other currencies. It has been an amazing trading day.
  • #27
  • Sep 7, 2006 4:30pm Sep 7, 2006 4:30pm
Canada Employment Report
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=7844

Read my question:
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=7844
  • #28
  • Sep 7, 2006 4:41pm Sep 7, 2006 4:41pm
READ, LISTEN, AND WATCH THE FINANCIAL NEWS

THINK FOR YOURSELF

PREDICT THE DIRECTION FOR THE NEWS ANNOUNCEMENT AND ONLY STAY IN THE TRADE FOR THE FIRST SPIKE. The first spike is the expectations spike and not the news report. After the first spike, anything can happen.

MINIMIZE LOSSES AND MAXIMIZE RETURNS

DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN ON THE NEXT REPORT.
  • #29
  • Sep 7, 2006 5:05pm Sep 7, 2006 5:05pm
LOL

oh god, i always get worried when the fonts get whipped out

calm down there buddy, we all want the next big report to come out as much as you do
Relax and be happy.
  • #30
  • Sep 7, 2006 6:45pm Sep 7, 2006 6:45pm
Quoting merlin
LOL

oh god, i always get worried when the fonts get whipped out

calm down there buddy, we all want the next big report to come out as much as you do
It was done to encourage community members to read a summary of the thread but I'll calm down a bit.
  • #31
  • Sep 7, 2006 7:07pm Sep 7, 2006 7:07pm
I was just reading other posts and viewing the charts attached. The question that comes to mind is: How can you understand all those lines?

I understand that the brokerages give you all those indicators for free. My opinion is that those indicators do not work. If they worked, why would people seek for another system.

I trade with a clean chart and can't see employing so many free indicators. I'd like for someone to shed light on this.

To reiterate, how can you understand all those lines that overlap your trading bars? Can you really make money with them without going insane with interpretations?
  • #32
  • Sep 7, 2006 7:54pm Sep 7, 2006 7:54pm
Hi Daniel,

just curious, From ur post i can see u gather the information and put an entry order say within 5-30 mins prior to the news....Rite ? if not correct me.

As u say this Sept 1st US NFP news u thought from all the info u gatherd the US $ wud strenghten rite... and u went short on €/$ or Gbp/$ or say both.
And the news came in ur favour. Good u made Huge pips/money... congrats.

Wat happens when the news goes in opposite direction of ur Entry.
Do u have a Stoploss Order set from ur entry or Do u close ur Entry order if u see it news going against U.

If u dont use Stoploss order i think its very risky.
If u use stoploss order say 10-15 pips away from ur entry i think its still risky bcoz in a news like US NFP ur stoploss Order won´t be 100% honored or will they? i say wont be honored bcoz there are many chances of Slippage... rite?

So how do u tackle this?

If the things i mentioned nothing applies u, i would like ur views how do u Make and Entry and Exit..?

cheers.
  • #33
  • Sep 7, 2006 8:18pm Sep 7, 2006 8:18pm
Quote
I understand that the brokerages give you all those indicators for free. My opinion is that those indicators do not work. If they worked, why would people seek for another system.

I personally TOTALLY agree. We have never a shortage of Indicators.


Quote
To reiterate, how can you understand all those lines that overlap your trading bars? Can you really make money with them without going insane with interpretations?

Not to go offensive against you, but some people CAN understand those lines. I myself, being an old school programmer, can understand numeric machine codes back in my younger days. I can also pick up an electronic board and be able to decode what and how the little pieces of electronic chips, resistors, transistors and all those craps behave. Its all in the matter of "training".

I still however dont and wont agree that simply because a GBPUSD chart is showing BEARISH:

Quote
"Hey Mr. Blair, my H4 GBPUSD jumanji chart clearly shows a ripe fat GBP ready to go down, I strongly suggest you and your cabinet to resign!"

Quote
The UK Anti-Terrorist consulted a Forex Chartist to launch their attack on the terrorists.
  • #34
  • Sep 7, 2006 8:24pm Sep 7, 2006 8:24pm
Quoting kevfx
Hi Daniel,

just curious, From ur post i can see u gather the information and put an entry order say within 5-30 mins prior to the news....Rite ? if not correct me.

As u say this Sept 1st US NFP news u thought from all the info u gatherd the US $ wud strenghten rite... and u went short on €/$ or Gbp/$ or say both.
And the news came in ur favour. Good u made Huge pips/money... congrats.

Wat happens when the news goes in opposite direction of ur Entry.
Do u have a Stoploss Order set from ur entry or Do u close ur Entry order if u see it news going against U.

If u dont use Stoploss order i think its very risky.
If u use stoploss order say 10-15 pips away from ur entry i think its still risky bcoz in a news like US NFP ur stoploss Order won´t be 100% honored or will they? i say wont be honored bcoz there are many chances of Slippage... rite?

So how do u tackle this?

If the things i mentioned nothing applies u, i would like ur views how do u Make and Entry and Exit..?

cheers.
I trade with a stop loss just like everyone else. My order is placed before high volatility so the stop loss order has to be honored.

If the trade goes against you because volatility skipped your stop, minimize losses. You will often see a retracement of the first spike, so try and get out close to your entry to minimize your losses.

It is common sense to minimize your losses and maximize your returns.

I hope this answers your question.
  • #35
  • Sep 7, 2006 8:33pm Sep 7, 2006 8:33pm
Quoting BurgerKing
Not to go offensive against you, but some people CAN understand those lines. I myself, being an old school programmer, can understand numeric machine codes back in my younger days. I can also pick up an electronic board and be able to decode what and how the little pieces of electronic chips, resistors, transistors and all those craps behave. Its all in the matter of "training".

I still however dont and wont agree that simply because a GBPUSD chart is showing BEARISH:
In the midst of a stressful trade, I don't see how you can see what you need through the many lines and patterns that those indicators provide.

It is not offensive to share information, unless it is a personal attack. You are entitled to your opinions. I am not an engineer and therefore cannot comprehend the mess that I see on the charts.

I go by confirmed news provided in various media broadcasts to determine direction.
  • #36
  • Sep 7, 2006 8:41pm Sep 7, 2006 8:41pm
Quoting ngdaniel
In the midst of a stressful trade, I don't see how you can see what you need through the many lines and patterns that those indicators provide.

It is not offensive to share information, unless it is a personal attack. You are entitled to your opinions. I am not an engineer and therefore cannot comprehend the mess that I see on the charts.

I go by confirmed news provided in various media broadcasts to determine direction.
My post ahead was not a personal attack. I personally dont even understand what those chartists are saying with their charts.. Honestly as you already pointed, if those indicators work, then Brokers should hate TA Traders more than they hate News Traders..

I think chartist claim their charts work mainly due to HIND SIGHT. Sure a chartist can go correct on their chart today, but not tommorrow. I personally can predict that GBPUSD will go 1.95. However, I cant tell you when; it can be Monday, or next year, or next decade. And when it does occur, I can point a finger at anyone and claim "I AM RIGHT".. Its totally hind sight right?
  • #37
  • Sep 7, 2006 8:44pm Sep 7, 2006 8:44pm
Quoting BurgerKing
My post ahead was not a personal attack. I personally dont even understand what those chartists are saying with their charts.. Honestly as you already pointed, if those indicators work, then Brokers should hate TA Traders more than they hate News Traders..

I think chartist claim their charts work mainly due to HIND SIGHT. Sure a chartist can go correct on their chart today, but not tommorrow. I personally can predict that GBPUSD will go 1.95. However, I cant tell you when; it can be Monday, or next year, or next decade. And when it does occur, I can point a finger at anyone and claim "I AM RIGHT".. Its totally hind sight right?
Agreed. Got to work on a new issue tonight on the AUD/USD trade. The broker spread the bid/ask so much that no real profit can be made. Can't wait until forex becomes a regulated market.
  • #38
  • Sep 8, 2006 12:23am Sep 8, 2006 12:23am
[quote=ngdaniel]Can't wait until forex becomes a regulated market./QUOTE]

When fxmarketspace goes live give it a couple of months. What we'll hopefully see if what you have on cme fx futures but higher liquidity. But to think that you can do what you're doing now around news is wishful thinking (not you specifically but the ppl straddling or trying to get in early). You guys are only making money because the bucket shops don't work like a proper exchange. So you guys better make your money now while it lasts
  • #39
  • Sep 8, 2006 5:46am Sep 8, 2006 5:46am
[quote=sccz97]
Quoting ngdaniel
Can't wait until forex becomes a regulated market./QUOTE]

When fxmarketspace goes live give it a couple of months. What we'll hopefully see if what you have on cme fx futures but higher liquidity. But to think that you can do what you're doing now around news is wishful thinking (not you specifically but the ppl straddling or trying to get in early). You guys are only making money because the bucket shops don't work like a proper exchange. So you guys better make your money now while it lasts
I trade fx futures too so I agree with you with one exception. Because the fx market place sees regulation coming around the corner, many are seeking strategic partnerships with offshore banks while maintaining the US market under US regulation. There are several offshore operations that are also members of CFTC and NFA.
  • #40
  • Sep 8, 2006 5:59am Sep 8, 2006 5:59am
[quote=sccz97]
Quoting ngdaniel
Can't wait until forex becomes a regulated market./QUOTE]

When fxmarketspace goes live give it a couple of months. What we'll hopefully see if what you have on cme fx futures but higher liquidity. But to think that you can do what you're doing now around news is wishful thinking (not you specifically but the ppl straddling or trying to get in early). You guys are only making money because the bucket shops don't work like a proper exchange. So you guys better make your money now while it lasts
Hi
Reading the stuff on their website, I wonder if you could clear something up?
They state:
Quote
CME will be the buyer to every seller and the seller to every buyer.
I take this to mean they will have a dealing-desk, or have I read this wrong?
Peter
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