The Really Useless Thread

EU tp1 hit at 525. 710 stops are paid.

UK100 shorts @ avg 7380, hoping it holds this time

UK100D1:

That was it for a very interesting European morning. All markets in standby until ECB.

Lots of action across the board. Most important highlight comes from the Oil front that it completed the pullback to the $50.xx handle right on time for the movers and shakers of the month.

We have a full house of markets with major trading opportunities across the board.

We have Gold, Oil, Treasuries, Bund, Dollar, Euro and to lesser extend Sterling all in play for the next few days starting today with ECB. Equities subdue as long as correlated markets are in play first and more importantly until ECB/FED pull the trigger in reality...if both are triggered at the same time (ECB pulling the plug on QE and FED [double even possible] rate hikes we are set to mark the High of the year....)

For today in the Euro, no surprises whatsoever and as more than widely expected since last Friday, we are sitting at 1.057x for ECB...

++++++ A shout to 1 Bull and 1 Bear to call the map for the potential flow today before ECB ++++

Please only call one and only one side the one you are bias or trading/planning to trade. We'll pick up a couple of them before the ECB to track the flow....

Use the following format like this so we can follow up later: Long or Short [direct / or zigzag] -> Entry [xxx] -> TP 1 [xxx] -> TP2 [xxxx] -> STP [xxxx]

sisse

Considering political risks (i.e., elections, brexit), I don't expect ECB will pull QE. So
Short [direct] -> Entry [1.059x] -> TP 1 [1.049x] -> TP2 [1.033x] -> STP [1.065x]

I will go with short - Zigzag with max extension of 10650, my map as following:

Entry Short [1.0610]

-> TP1 [1.0510]

->TP2 [1.0410]

->TP3 1.0310

-> STP [1.0710]

Long[direct] -> Entry [1.055x] -> TP 1 [1.064x] -> TP2 [1.074x] -> STP [1.047x]

Expecting no change in ECB policy with cautious and very slight hawkish comments for the future to reflect inflation improvement. This should unlock FED hike flows :

Short 1.060x -> TP 1 1.041x -> TP2 1.033x -> STP 1.068x

I have a question about the zig legs in Oil and Gold : in case of a 50bps hike, should we expect a larger retracement ?

That's a 1 million dollar question . Very tricky, without risk short, and now mid and long term on the map a 'silent' ECB will be enough to send Gold directly below 1000 (around 930.xx)in a one sharp clean sweep until late Q3.

However, we have risk all over the place with risky European elections, UK about to jump into the abyss this month and the never ending populist, nationalist and protectionists with Trump leading the pack. More importantly, CBs overstayed so long with low rates that inflation is already hitting deep in the UK, just got in play in the US and finally back to norm in the EZ meaning Gold will get stronger and stronger in the upcoming quarters by the simple impact of inflation (nothing to do with risk).

Meaning, Gold has way too many fronts already open to just move naturally on macro economic factors alone (hikes and end of QE). Markets are incline to keep Gold in Bid at least until we clear European elections but a hawkish ECB today will have a deep negative impact 'cause markets and expectations are sitting on the other side.

sisse

So far we got this. Will group similar ones into one ...last CALL come on jump in ....where are the Bulls? where are the parity callers? ...or we are just aligning for nothingness in the next couple of weeks?

Short [direct] -> Entry [1.059x] -> TP 1 [1.049x] -> TP2 [1.033x] -> STP [1.065x]

Short direct] -> [1.0610] -> TP1 [1.0510] ->TP2 [1.0410] ->TP3 1.0310 -> STP [1.0710]

Long [direct] -> Entry [1.055x] -> TP 1 [1.064x] -> TP2 [1.074x] -> STP [1.047x]

Short [direct] -> 1.060x -> TP 1 1.041x -> TP2 1.033x -> STP 1.068x

Short [direct] -> Entry [1.063x] -> TP 1 [1.053x] -> TP2 [1.033x] -> STP [1.073x]

Long direct -> Entry 1.055x -> TP 1 1.067x -> TP2 1.075x -> STP 1.046x

Short [direct] -> Entry [1.059x] -> TP 1 [1.049x] -> TP2 [1.033x] -> STP [1.065x]

Long: 1.060x -> TP 1 1.068x -> TP2 1.078x -> STP 1.048x

short zigzag entry 1.055x tp1 1.042x tp2 1.0372 stp 1.0585

sisse

Short [direct] -> Entry [1.063x] -> TP 1 [1.053x] -> TP2 [1.033x] -> STP [1.073x]

Long direct -> Entry 1.055x -> TP 1 1.067x -> TP2 1.075x -> STP 1.046x

Short [direct] -> Entry [1.059x] -> TP 1 [1.049x] -> TP2 [1.033x] -> STP [1.065x]....that will work for me

Hawkish but still QE:
Short: 1.060x -> TP 1 1.048x -> TP2 1.038x -> STP 1.068x

No more QE:
Long: 1.060x -> TP 1 1.068x -> TP2 1.078x -> STP 1.048x

short zigzag entry 10.0553 tp1 1.0429 tp2 1.0372 stp 1.0585


activatied as I typed

seems qe stays as is

These numbers are for potential flow today?

live I think hombre

Makes that map I put up look pretty conservative for ECB flows. I am looking for net maybe 60ish pip move max on this news.
GL all trading it.

...and here we go for another ECB.

--> On the Fundamental side:

Not expecting much today in term of new data. Markets expectations are aligned to an uneventful rather silent ECB on the QE front with a close eye on the inflation front to confirm that we finally 'are there' (at least in nominal terms).

 

1. Tracking 2 things today. Headline on inflation and a rather upbeat outlook on the macro front. Given the ECB record since Draghi, ECB is expected to hold horses on any major comments until EZ elections are cleared and to lesser extend Brexit is triggered later this month.

1. A soft and relatively quiet ECB with a slightly hawkish (via macro front) will meet expectations, anything else will send shockwaves across the FX board,

--> On the Technical side:

Euro is the one to track today and is complete control as European Equities are entering in good news will be good news and bad news will be good news too (via squeezing low rates and QE for a little longer).

 

1. DAX 1188x is the one to track for QE impact reference. Losing this week will make me flat across all European equities till elections are cleared. While holding unlock a quick extension (very risk and advanced trade) to ATH.

1. GOLD is a key one to track but it comes in a triple combo with ECB/NFP/FED tracking 1210.xx for the ECB but the one and only one in play is 1216x for the short and mid term swing.

1. Euro is stuck in a wide range all year long and have already broken correlation with both Equities and Dollar. A dovish [not expected] ECB could trigger a WTF moment in the Euro. 1.048x is the rain maker to the short side. An unexpected v hawkish ECB announcing and imminent end of QE will wipe out 1.061x unlocking a extremely fast and sharp zigzag to 1.087x -> back to the lows with the FED and risk later.

Any other outcome with 1.061x holding is pretty much nothing to see or do till the FED play.

--> For the actual flows (Euro only):

We are going to crowdsource this time the actual maps so I will just give the general comments:

 

1. As always in these events: ALL micro levels RAISED starting right now and ending around the 2 or 3 question in the conference.
2. We have a very wide range in play. 1.087x top 1.049x bottom and 1.056x line in the sand for reference.
3. A very wide ZigZag comes with a very hawkish ECB for up and double down move. While a mid term exhaustion comes in Direct play taking to 1.042x -> 1.018x with the double play with the FED.
4. Anything other outcome is nothing to see.

For the actual maps here are the official ones from those who helped (thanks all):

--> Its seems to be a consensus on the entry short (I personally disagree with the level in my map but thats beyond the map). For TP1 we have a range from the 1.039x to as highs as the micro 1.051x will average them. For TP2 around the mid 1.03xx seems to be the one (I also disagree with this area). Stops will rounded up in 100/120 ticks for the sake of the argument (soft but valid TA wise in my books)

Short @ 1.060x -> TP1 1.046x -> TP2 1.035x -> STP 1.071x ---> Min r:r 1 : 1.5

For longs. A simple range we have a clearer entries and targets averages:

Short @ 1.057x -> TP1 1.067x -> TP2 1.076x -> STP 1.047x --> Min r:r 1 : 1

From what I get from the calls, the RUT is expecting a rather uneventful soft ECB....just a quick reminder that we have a double play with the FED (starting with NFP tomorrow) .... it looks in the very shy side in my view ....we'll see

GL all trading, already in trades or just tracking the ECB...

sisse

...QE nothing new... positive macro outlook ...inflation slightly better but still on the soft side ...

sisse

Macro revsions positive ... inflation expectations also increasing but ALL on OIL not in core inflation.... this is the first REAL dovish comment. Watchout the handle !!!..

sisse