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Canada Employment Report

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 6, 2006 11:24am Sep 6, 2006 11:24am
This is the Canadian equivalent to US's NFP. Unlike NFP, this one is not as volatile but is far safer (no violent pre news movements, no whipsaws). This is a quality news not to be missed.

Take a look at 3 previous releases as attached.

I'd like to note that Last August's result may have came out earlier than the scheduled 7:00AM EST. The movement came out 2 minutes early. Some CAD news are released earlier than schedule and this may perhaps be one of them. Please tell the Canadians to synchronize their watch with a world time server!

Previous result was a poor -5.5K new jobs. Current Estimate is around 20K - a positive expectation just like last month. Surely, if the result came out negative, it will make another long run. If the number is better than 20K, expect a big short run. But what if the result is between -5K and 20K? I dont know... but perhaps it will levitate on whether the number is an improvement from the previous, and whether the CAD had made any early assessment..

Recommendation: Aggressive Straddle Distance (5-10 pips distance), Moderate TP (20-40), Moderate-Aggressive Lots (75% to 100% of your News Lot Size). Place your Straddles early (in case the news is released earlier than 7), and constantly adjust your Entries until you've noticed aggressive movements coming. Actually, by the time you see the movement, you are already in the trade..
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  • #2
  • Sep 6, 2006 4:55pm Sep 6, 2006 4:55pm
Quoting BurgerKing
This is the Canadian equivalent to US's NFP. Unlike NFP, this one is not as volatile but is far safer (no violent pre news movements, no whipsaws). This is a quality news not to be missed.

Take a look at 3 previous releases as attached.

I'd like to note that Last August's result may have came out earlier than the scheduled 7:00AM EST. The movement came out 2 minutes early. Some CAD news are released earlier than schedule and this may perhaps be one of them. Please tell the Canadians to synchronize their watch with a world time server!

Previous result was a poor -5.5K new jobs. Current Estimate is around 20K - a positive expectation just like last month. Surely, if the result came out negative, it will make another long run. If the number is better than 20K, expect a big short run. But what if the result is between -5K and 20K? I dont know... but perhaps it will levitate on whether the number is an improvement from the previous, and whether the CAD had made any early assessment..

Recommendation: Aggressive Straddle Distance (5-10 pips distance), Moderate TP (20-40), Moderate-Aggressive Lots (75% to 100% of your News Lot Size). Place your Straddles early (in case the news is released earlier than 7), and constantly adjust your Entries until you've noticed aggressive movements coming. Actually, by the time you see the movement, you are already in the trade..
Great post as always BK

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #3
  • Sep 6, 2006 5:25pm Sep 6, 2006 5:25pm
This is one of my favorites. Total pip moves for the past 5 months: 72, 36, 83, 16, 72.

Also, last month the news was released early so be prepared just in case.
  • #4
  • Sep 7, 2006 4:02pm Sep 7, 2006 4:02pm
Last month it moved up about 65 pips. Any thoughts on tomorrow's release!
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Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #5
  • Sep 7, 2006 4:19pm Sep 7, 2006 4:19pm
Although it is too early to determine because I have no morning news yet, I feel that at this time the employment release will cause a positive market reaction for the CAD.

Therefore, I recommend a Sell ( Short ) of the USD/CAD pair. This is the Canadian version of the US Non-Farm Payroll.
  • #6
  • Sep 7, 2006 5:08pm Sep 7, 2006 5:08pm
so the USDCAD is a sell before the report daniel?
if you get this right, will it be the first live call you made at FF?

let see how ya do
Relax and be happy.
  • #7
  • Sep 7, 2006 6:55pm Sep 7, 2006 6:55pm
Quoting merlin
so the USDCAD is a sell before the report daniel?
if you get this right, will it be the first live call you made at FF?

let see how ya do
This is the best call I can make without overnight trading information. I'll stick to the Sell (Short) order on the USD/CAD pair.

Everyone should thank Burger King for the detailed analysis provided in the first post. Best of luck if you follow the aggressive straddle trading.

I prefer to predict a direction of the announcement and go with it. Win or lose - minimize losses and maximize returns.
  • #8
  • Sep 7, 2006 7:52pm Sep 7, 2006 7:52pm
I based my Aggressive Straddle Distance on 8 historic charts (Jan-Aug). Only February produced a "double tail" (a Candle Stick with an up and down tail suggesting confused reaction to a news). All of the other 7 charts produced clean single direction trend.

Seeing how big the winning odds, placing a nearer 5-10 pips distance is safe. Of course I would be better of I can enter the trade manually on market but following the flow that way is like catching a falling sword - if Im not quick enough, I might enter at the peak price.

However, I will try to research and feel the market hours before the news. If I sense any CAD positive, I'd trade on that direction. I totally agree this is how we must trade news to prevent dastardly slippage and not fillment of orders.
  • #9
  • Sep 7, 2006 9:17pm Sep 7, 2006 9:17pm
I have this in my top 15 reliable reports (no US news makes it all the more significant). I know lots of people love to straddle, but i sure had a real bad experience with straddling and try to develop a trigger to make this a desirable medium length trade ( I would hold for a few hours and look to get out before the spreads change Friday afternoon).

Anyway, I have Employment change as an expected 18K.
If 33K or more.... sell usdcad
If 3K or less........ buy usdcad

Oanda's been widening the spread making entry on the initial release a dangerous thing unless the report is a huge deviation. Anyone else have strategies that don't require straddling?
happy trading
  • #10
  • Sep 7, 2006 9:22pm Sep 7, 2006 9:22pm
Quoting squat1962
I have this in my top 15 reliable reports (no US news makes it all the more significant). I know lots of people love to straddle, but i sure had a real bad experience with straddling and try to develop a trigger to make this a desirable medium length trade ( I would hold for a few hours and look to get out before the spreads change Friday afternoon).

Anyway, I have Employment change as an expected 18K.
If 33K or more.... sell usdcad
If 3K or less........ buy usdcad

Oanda's been widening the spread making entry on the initial release a dangerous thing unless the report is a huge deviation. Anyone else have strategies that don't require straddling?
happy trading
I don't straddle trade. Read my posting on Predicting the direction of an economic release.
  • #11
  • Sep 8, 2006 4:34am Sep 8, 2006 4:34am
smoking baby,

if you dont want straddle, why not hedge and place stops seconds before the news???

Seeing that OANDA widens spread minutes away from the news, hedge hours ahead. hedge may require 2x of the normal spreads, but that surely is not more than the widened spreads.. do you agree?
  • #12
  • Sep 8, 2006 5:38am Sep 8, 2006 5:38am
Let see if also this report will be very close to forecast...

If it is , analysts all over the world had a very relaxing and refreshing holiday this year !
  • #13
  • Sep 8, 2006 5:59am Sep 8, 2006 5:59am
Successfully stradle this one. + 25 pips
  • #14
  • Sep 8, 2006 6:04am Sep 8, 2006 6:04am
Quoting coleong
Successfully stradle this one. + 25 pips
I straddled as well, but the price flew through my stop limit and I wasn't filled until it retraced. So I got in at 1.1128 and sold at 1.1135.

+7 pips for me.
  • #15
  • Sep 8, 2006 6:04am Sep 8, 2006 6:04am
Quoting ngdaniel
Although it is too early to determine because I have no morning news yet, I feel that at this time the employment release will cause a positive market reaction for the CAD.

Therefore, I recommend a Sell ( Short ) of the USD/CAD pair. This is the Canadian version of the US Non-Farm Payroll.
damn you got smoked on that one!
Relax and be happy.
  • #16
  • Sep 8, 2006 6:04am Sep 8, 2006 6:04am
Just like old times (2weeks) Nailed it for 17pips. Definetly worth getting UP for.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #17
  • Sep 8, 2006 6:05am Sep 8, 2006 6:05am
I shorted. Didn't work this time. -30 pips.
  • #18
  • Sep 8, 2006 6:06am Sep 8, 2006 6:06am
I called this direction wrong.

Maybe I shouldn't make a prediction 14+ hours in advance of the announcement.

It was a 50-50 chance of getting it right.

This morning's CNBC Squack Box discussed this trade and talked about it going against me. Fortunately, I didn't trade.

Oh well, next trade.
  • #19
  • Sep 8, 2006 6:09am Sep 8, 2006 6:09am
Quoting merlin
damn you got smoked on that one!
Dude, it happens. Shows that I shouldn't predict 14+ hours in advance.

CNBC stopped me from trading this morning but I already posted the short yesterday.
  • #20
  • Sep 8, 2006 6:10am Sep 8, 2006 6:10am
Straddled him and picked up 20 pips. Now waiting for EUR/USD to break 1.2745
a journey of a thousand trades begins with a single pip
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