The Really Useless Thread

[quote=sisse;9635778]{quote} ...and I will take that in Gold. Clearing the core of 'zig' leg after the test 1220.xx leg for those following from last week.


Thank you very much.......

.......SnipSnatch (SNAP) Pump&Dump, imagine that.....maybe by the time the options come out and populate it will be back to the IPO price....(SNAP)

....and clearing all in Gold with the test 1216.xx on the opening range. For now flat across all commodities but actively looking to building positions ...

Eyes on Sterling after the fix...

sisse

"A quick heads up in the FX board. Sterling* entering in critical levels one more time since July"

looking for a re test of level 1.22XX to enter think may be reasonable.....

Snap stopped, no option valid:/

A rather dull session across the board, calm before the storm.

Only highlight from those tracking the Snap iteration triggered on the tick below $22.xx looking rather feeble. Stops also set below on the middle of the handle for those who want to track as reference.

We'll revaluate only EOD if not taken before...

GL all tacking, planning to or already trading live ...

sisse

a. Buy MKT @ $24.5 targeting a return of TP1 (10%) => $26.9x => TP2 (20%) $29.4x STPs 3% below the lows of the range.

b. Buy LMT 10% below @$22.x[check] targeting TP1 (22%) => $26.9x => TP2 (34%) $29.4x STP 5% below

IMARICH1

Pharm0r

hoom

Pixie666

cashfactor

eborn

Replican

Vorex

Grinsakh

Earleone

c. Nothing to see here. Play a compression of volatility neither $26.5x or the bottom $23.0x of the opening range will be taken in the next month (risking 4% for 8% return).

goosebone

nutts

ptoftangency

Why? Your initial stop should be around $20.8x now that we have the daily range of the trading day set you can adjust to $20.5 to round up for the close onwards but you can keep it it tight if you wish it wont make any difference in the outcome now.

sisse

Re Snap Inc
Are any of you guys trading this for real?
Looking at some numbers, it was 70% up on the issue price, now it's only about 24% up but it's dropped 40% from the high. These are pure gambling numbers!
mr confused
I'm reminded of that expression 'widows and orphans need not apply'

Thats the beauty of this particular SNAP iterations.

-> Forcing to trade blindfolded. No TA neither outlook given. Most if not all around here have ever been forced to trade without a TA 'bias'. If you don't have a good valuation idea on the IPO and how its going to benchmark in the short term you are pretty much blind chasing what it seem to be air,

-> A few of the key points here that hopefully will trigger a few 'AHA' moments in between for some:

 

1. One is focusing 100% on risk and capital management,
2. Second how general crowd behaviour affect markets (in this case very simple but powerful to understand).
3. Third how asymmetric information always help those who 'have' access to the right information at the right time. Crowds chasing headlines in CNBC, good traders and speculators benefiting from this flows, Real money already loaded cheap, lock in a quick buck on the initial trading range and now they will wait for fair market value before next step.
4. Fourth, how management of volatility and stops.
5. Fifth, how to incorporate stocks in a balance portfolio...

Let's see how it goes. Hopefully it will give us some flows (the initial was too easy and fast) so the points gets very clear.

sisse

@sisse thanks for the detailed explanation
I must admit it is quite fascinating
Would you class this as a 'momo play'? (momo=momentum for the non-engleesh in the crowd )

Edit: it would help it I could actually spell

Well my bad with early entry and because I had SL on 20.80 I got stopped, but thats mostly my problem with trading, because I dont want to watch graphs all day, so I just set orders with tp, sl and let it do what it does.

...and we are rolling with a very important update. Dollar quietly triggering imminent break up alerts for the short term just before the major mover and shakers this month.

On the rest of the board, first slightly bearish close in Equities in a while. Early signals that the exhaustion leg is getting overextended ...for now not much to see or do till the ECB/NFP combo.

sisse

--> Well it's a very tricky and advance position to manage. As you can see 20.5x barely held today but I must admit its a hard one to call as you wouldn't have adjust the stops if you were not following the intraday session. Seldom if never manage positions like that intraday with stocks but this is a very particular case because we are establishing the initial range after going public and will set the main and core market value in the short and mid term.

Whatever the case, the trade looks extremely feeble for now but the original idea comes from SNAP getting carry by the market (not by its underlying value) with the good numbers this week to double test the top and bottom and establish the range .... $22.2x is the rain maker if we hold the open tomorrow .... we'll see.

sisse

Too many variables to map them all. Triangulation with the 3 events and when you add politics in France and USA to it, forget it. Decided to just pick three paths I see as plausible. So much can change they could all three end up obsolete before ECB.
Flying out before Thursday news and on the road next week so thought I'd just post this early as I'm away from charts and strictly mobile while out of town.

Good luck to all you guys with the coming events. I hope you're seeing it clearer than I am from here.

No I think you have it summed up...spent the last 5 hours trying to decide whats next...not much confidence that I'm any the wiser other than have to wait and see....and hope.

+++++ Very LONG TRADING not market TALK POST alert. If you already have read it before ...feel free to ignore +++++

Its very good that you are seeing the big picture but you are complicating and mixing things up too much.

You are mixing up Tfs (short, mid and long term), trading opportunities, flows with direction and outlooks and getting into paralysis by analysis and/or entering in 'analyst syndrome' instead of thinking like a investor and trader. Check the very first posts before the iterations last year.

Let me try to give you a couple of hints.

1. You always always always define direction first and only then you trade accordingly.
2. What is your main direction/outlook?
3. Can the ECB affect direction in this meeting? Can NFP affect direction?

Don't confuse how big or volatile the flows might be with the actual direction. Start with direction. NOTHING to do with your trading MAP !!!!

-> Can NFP change anything?: NO not really. A overshoot just confirm more or the same with more force on the impact of hikes. Even a major flop wont change the super uber strong uptrend in employment in one off number

====> Therefore, is nothing to see there for direction ...next

-> Can ECB change anything? No. Not expected. However we have strong numbers lately and inflation finally reach its nominal target for the first time in years. So only a clear announcement to end QE can affect direction (of the EURO only side!!!). If that happens (odds below 10% in my books) there is nothing to be afraid, neither jump the gun like crazy on the knee jerk reaction....

====> Therefore if that improvable scenario happens this week, you just revaluate and in the most wild scenario we change outlook from Sell to Neutral. Why? because a FX pair has 2 sides (check back posts for how to evaluate +++ and --- on each side). So if Euro* becomes buy but Dollar is still in Sell what do you get???? Chop and a wild cluster fck in between on the major clash of forces.....

===> Does it mean go wild and buy, trash your charts and start trading in all directions? NO absolutely no. Its just mean you are doing your homework and adjusting your outlook according to the new reality, your trading opportunities will have to be adjust to trade that new environment (e.g fade the extremes, trade outside -> inside in the range etc etc).

Thats what you should be analysing and tracking this week(s) not trying to chart every single potential outcome of major direction forces in out of range charts for the implications of such a massive changes.

-> Only after you have this completely clear you can then move on to start managing positions for this week (if you are holding) or looking for new opportunities to trade the movers and shakers.

====>For now things should be fairly simple as I have mentioned to you and others many times. What is your current outlook? (mid and short term as its a double play this week). If its Sell? SHORT THE damn thing, if its BUY? don't sweat it just go LONG if your direction is right you will get pay and thats is final. If you don't have a proper setup, r:r, trading options according to you and only you...just sit patiently until you get your entry wherever its is. Your decision on where and how to take should be already defined by now !!!!

====> Finally and I think here is where things get a bit confusing for some. We also have the 'actual flows' news play this time probably with ECB and NFP given the circumstances. Those plays are absolutely out of the scope from the trades we are taking above. You can skip if they are too complicate and by no means should blur or override your short or mid term swings.

If it's too much to handle in live trading. Skip them or just come in the thread as we have being doing for years and try to map the flows before the fact, track live the news (in the case of ECB) and then trade accordingly if there is anything worth trading (as you can see many times there is nothing to see or too much risk or simple not worth the effort during this plays).

I personally recommend to use this opportunities to improve, rebalance, add or take profit on your short term positions instead of just trading them alone ....

In a nutshell, don't overcomplicate, don't get into paralysis by analysis, be careful of the 'Analyst Syndrome' (that applies both TA and FA wise), establish an order of analysis. Direction first (with FA!!!) and only then you map your potential trades accordingly. Differentiate a short term swing (this is real consistent trading) with a news flow and finally: TRADE YOUR DAMN DIRECTION, don't SWEAT it, don't AIM for the Perfect entry to the TICK and more importantly don't DOUBT yourself. If you are wrong you are wrong and move to the next one ...nothing less, nothing more.

I hope it helps.

sisse

May I ask you if you don't mind how you determine this kind of trigger: is it based on experience or TA or news? Thanks in advance!

I may be wrong but perhaps because DXY took 101.8x on D1

Major overshoot in US numbers. Extremely good numbers and we are setting for a larger % hikes if we continue like this (especially if NFP plays ball).

Dollar and Gold looks on track but Euro looks and feels very uncomfortable at the current levels. We are set for a major WTF shake out in the Euro as even the most Dollar dove of the doves is no longer defending no hikes so whoever is sitting in the wrong side need to clear up rather quick.

Eyes on NY for the open and the reaction in Equities but the session will start fading away in the FX board and Gold as we enter in ECB mode. One more time will eb the one that gives the go ahead or put a hard stops on the next leg.

sisse


It's not a trigger. Its just a imminent break alert ... kind of early 'heads up' alert for trading before the action happens ...

sisse

Heh. I guess I did take that green line up pretty high and out of scope.
Good reminders thanks.
We should expect 870 to contain a no hike reaction in outlook sell, I suppose, so I can see what you mean. Breaking the extreme of the range would be, well...extreme. So looks like a trash the map, change in direction the way i drew it up.
Keep it simple is good advice for most things in life. No exception here.
I am holding eu (and a little gu) shorts at the moment and only if and after eu visits my tp1 down around 520 will there be any management of that position required. Otherwise I'm in wait and see mode which, in my case anyway, is when I can start over analyzing and see stuff that's not there. So as always, reality check is appreciated.

Indeed....and i got the suspicion ECB too. Trump triggered a nuke for the mid and long term in dollar (it prolly wont pan out at the end but expectations for now are clear) + protectionism coming from the US and UK + inflation starting to worry to the oversensitive on inflation Germans.

The ECB has been very clear and consistent in its policy approach. For now it needs to hold horses for the risk plays (short term elections + Brexit) and avoid derailing the recovery pulling the plug too early so keeping an semi dormant Euro in a controlled range is a cheap way as long as market don't go for the full blow...

We'll see in a few.

sisse

Uneventful day in the markets. Only highlights come from the UK for those tracking Sterling and UK equities.

A very poor budget seem to be consensus .

UK is heading to a major upset in the next few Q.

Tax hikes to small business and self-employed, losing all trading access for the next decade, losing London European financial capital, slaughtering the future of the young generation in exchange for the votes of the old folks and on top the most backwards economic and international trade policy team in the history of the UK ...

We are set for a major hit, major outlook changes around the corner.

More importantly very noisy and unconfirmed gossip of May calling early elections the day Brexit is announced to clean sweep the opposition....

Tracking extremely closely UK developments in the following werks as we may get a fresh WTF moment very soon...

On the rest calm before the storm with same levels same trades same all.till tomorrow

sisse