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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #3,861
  • Mar 4, 2017 8:05am Mar 4, 2017 8:05am
Quoting Lock
{quote} The only feasible idea a trader should always preserve constantly in his mind is that market is a 2 ways auction process: all the other ideas a trader could have should be interchangeable, elastic and morphing. First you have to build at least 3 different scenarios before market open then you have to constantly adjust these three scenarios (btw they could be obviously more than 3: 3 is only a basic number) or even completely change them. Sometime market action is very fast and the change occurrs in a so small amount of time that it's almost...
Thank you. I hadn't been making scenarios before the session it slipped my mind. A lot of new learning and information was coming at me so while internalising that I forgot to paint my pictures. Thanks a lot
  • #3,862
  • Edited 2:45am Mar 6, 2017 2:33am | Edited 2:45am
17/03/06 MONDAY 09:33+1GMT
WEEKLY REPORT

We are in a monthly balance, in a weekly attempted breakout from balance to the downside (and we already got the first weekly close below weekly bracket low) and in a daily balance (last 2 days overlapping).

We have two way to evaluate Friday pit action: it has been a short covering just to cover inventories became to short during the breakout from weekly bracket, in order to find enough sellers to continue lower; or it was the first part of a balance that could lead to a re-adjustment of inventories in order to continue lower or the preparation for a retracement of the breakout downside.

In any case current price location, close to the major composite poc at 2285 let us think at a moment of uncertainty for market participants.

Most important levels upside are consequently the low of the weekly bracket (GB 23464) and the previous 23016 and 23117 that always have been carefully considered by market participants of all sessions.

Downside the most important references are the 2 composite pocs at 2233 and 2163, then the 21353 second weekly balance low after the weekly major break of 02.10.16. Below this last level we have the low of the first weekly balance after the major break at 20886 and finally the major bracket low at 19863 (with GB slightly above it as low at 20183 and pit low at 20374)

Downside we have 2 GB poor lows at 2113 and 20183 plus a double pass GB gap from13.01.17 at 20843-2113. Almost in this same zone we also have a double pass pit gap.

Upside we left during the break and the last pit short covering (last Friday) 2 back to back poor highs at 2300 (also round number and also tagged by tonight Tokyo session high) and 23275, plus a GB minus development at 2338-2358. Then, far above (in case of weekly breakout failure) we have the major composite poc at 2464. But before it we have a vast amount of important references forming the bottom of the upper weekly balance as 23464 (GB) and 23694 (it) plus the 2 most important major brackets half backs at 23583 (Pit) and 2362 (GB) for the bracket from 16.01.17 to 02.02.17, while for the bracket from 06.12.16 to 16.01.17 2396 (GB) and 23975 (Pit).

I suggest to carry forward all this major references putting them on your charts. (if you like you may use the templates I posted last week here and here)
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  • #3,863
  • Mar 6, 2017 2:49am Mar 6, 2017 2:49am
Now, GB opened with a modest gap higher, went back inside Friday GB range closing the new gap then B period went in balance making also a poor high at 2280. In the same time GB tested below overnight low at 22645 and came back inside Tokyo range. Note price up and down open price multiple time: it is an auction open, meaning lack of conviction in any direction and lack of initial participation.

So for now even if we close the new gap upside we do not have acceptation back inside Friday GB range and the situation upside is very weak. In case of B inside period at B close, I suggest to go with the possible breakout from balance monitoring for continuation. If the break will fail in one direction the natural following direction will be the opposite side of balance.
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  • #3,864
  • Mar 6, 2017 3:21am Mar 6, 2017 3:21am
please explain what you means by price acceptation
  • #3,865
  • Mar 6, 2017 3:32am Mar 6, 2017 3:32am
Quoting adetola99
please explain what you means by price acceptation
Technically it means at least a couple of m30 periods closed above or below a particular price level. Currently for instance we have acceptation back inside Tokyo range while we do not have acceptation inside Friday GB range.

This anyway is only one data point.

Note C inside B inside A.
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  • #3,866
  • Mar 6, 2017 3:50am Mar 6, 2017 3:50am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Technically it means at least a couple of m30 periods closed above or below a particular price level. Currently for instance we have acceptation back inside Tokyo range while we do not have acceptation inside Friday GB range. This anyway is only one data point. Note C inside B inside A.
ok thank you
  • #3,867
  • Mar 7, 2017 5:33am Mar 7, 2017 5:33am
Where is Lock today?
  • #3,868
  • Edited 5:45am Mar 7, 2017 5:34am | Edited 5:45am
17/03/07 TUESDAY 12:34+1GMT
LATE MORNING REPORT

We are in a monthly balance, in an attempted breakdown from previous weekly bracket, possibly becoming a new mid term trend down if the break will be accepted at the end of current week, and finally in a short term daily trend downside where yesterday we got the confirmation that Friday correction was only short covering and nothing more. Today GB gap downside confirmed the trend adding an other excess downside to the main short term action.

GB session is currently building a new possible downside gap for upcoming preUS and pit US sessions: GB session is in one timeframing lower action but F period (who took out E period high at half back 2204.) Note anyhow that current price action is occurring inside the previous old pit gap upside from16-17.01.17 (2085-22237), consequently an open of upcoming pit session around current price level will produce a new pit gap downside but also a double pass pit gap up to yesterday pit low at 22237: carry this information forward.

Major references for today are, downside, the lower composite poc at 2163, the 21353 second WEEKLY BALANCE LOW after 02.10.16 weekly break, then the old GB poor low at 2113 and after that the 2082 pit bracket low from 25.10.2016. In case of continuation as a natural target we have then 2037 (current year pit lowest low) and 2018 (current year GB lowest low also poor low).

Upside, in case of correction of inventories or in case of balance range extension (I'm excluding a full v shaped retracement of the short term trend because generally after a trend downside we need a balance period before any possible serious inversion of trend), we have the major upper composite poc at 2285 and a lot of various weaknesses left upside like the yesterday GB poor high at 2280, yesterday preUS poor high at 22785, Sydney poor high at 22995 tagging pit Friday poor high at round 2300 (very weak), then the go no go levels at 23016 and 23117 followed by the pit poor high at 23275.

Note that current GB price action is testing the very important old GB spike base at 2186 (17.01.17) Generally such a big ref produce at least a first bounce: then we have to see if we could get acceptation below it or not.
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  • #3,869
  • Mar 7, 2017 5:40am Mar 7, 2017 5:40am
Quoting behram
Where is Lock today?
I'm here! Good morning. I was out earlier.
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  • #3,870
  • Mar 7, 2017 8:50am Mar 7, 2017 8:50am
Pit session gapped lower from yesterday pit range low so currently we have a double pass gap up to 22237. Pit session made an open drive (no test above open level at 2186) and tested immediately below overnight low. For any meaningfull continuation downside we need acceptation below overnight low 2182 (GB low) and we need to preserve the new gap downside.
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  • #3,871
  • Mar 7, 2017 8:52am Mar 7, 2017 8:52am
First short term reference is at 2153 but before it we have the lower composite poc at 2163. Old pit minus development down to 21575. It could be filled
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  • #3,872
  • Mar 7, 2017 11:54am Mar 7, 2017 11:54am
This action is an other short covering: note that is going agaist developing value (currently lower from yesterday pit value) and is leaving downside C and D lows at open price 21863. Gap downside still in place even if we got a new poor high.
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  • #3,873
  • Edited 4:49am Mar 8, 2017 4:37am | Edited 4:49am
17/03/08 WEDNESDAY 11:37+1GMT
LATE MORNING REPORT

Monthly balance, weekly probable mid term trend downside if current week will close below the upper weekly bracket, daily short term trend downside as we got 7 days in one timeframing lower action but last Friday that took out the day before high.

GB opened at the bottom of yesterday GB range (with 1 single pip of gap downside), price was rejected from previous GB range and continued lower after B inside period balance.

Now, for any meaningfull continuation downside we need acceptation below 2016 lowest GB close at 2156. If this acceptation will occur and if we also will have acceptation below the short term reference at 21353 (second WEEKLY BALANCE LOW after 02.10.16 weekly break), there will be good odds to see the GB double pass gap at 2084-2113 filled (obviously taking out the old GB poor low at 2113*)

The problem here is that price is up and down a major composite poc at 2163 and we have already a 4 letters poc at this level: we need volume to evade it and we are before news, consequently a shake out is always possible considering the weaknesses left above (a new poor high for Tokyo at 22135, tagging yesterday pit poor high at 22115).

All the action from Friday short covering is weak even if it is clearly aligned with the short term trend downside: this last short term continuation left above a vast amount of weaknesses up to Friday pit high at round 2300. So carry this information forward if something will go wrong downside (rejection below 2156 or below 21353).

*note that this level almost coincides with the lowest GB low for 2016 at 21137.
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  • #3,874
  • Mar 8, 2017 9:05am Mar 8, 2017 9:05am
The game is currently about acceptation or rejection inside yesterday pit session range (above 2169): in case of rejection above it, it is possible to continue lower in the filling of the old pit gap upside down to 2085. As this morning the problem will be to have enough volume to evade current composite poc at 2163. Pit lowest close for 2016 is at 2119 and from 2121 to 2085 we also have an old double pass pit gap.

Finally 2082 is the pit lowest low for 2016.
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  • #3,875
  • Edited 1:52am Mar 9, 2017 1:30am | Edited 1:52am
17/03/09 THURSDAY 08:30+1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Quoting Lock
17/03/07 TUESDAY 12:34+1GMT LATE MORNING REPORT .... Major references for today are, downside, the lower composite poc at 2163, the 21353 second WEEKLY BALANCE LOW after 02.10.16 weekly break.....
On Tuesday the short term trend downside continue lower down to the composite poc at 2163 (a few pips above it) remaining in balance there the next day. It was not able to even test the lower short term reference at 21353

Quoting Lock
17/03/08 WEDNESDAY 11:37+1GMT LATE MORNING REPORT .... The problem here is that price is up and down a major composite poc at 2163 and we have already a 4 letters poc at this level: we need volume to evade it .....
On Wednesday morning the situation didn't change: still balance around the composite poc at 2163: not enough volume to evade it. And still not able to test the lower short term reference at 21353

Quoting Lock
... As this morning the problem will be to have enough volume to evade current composite poc at 2163. ....
Finally yesterday pit session continued the balance around the major composite poc at 2163 as it did also Tokyo all night long: still no volume to evade it.

Now, my opinion is that the current composite profile (made in the last 2 days) is enough prominent to avoid any possible profitable continuation in this balance action: the search for a new fair place at which business could be conducted is currently very probable. This condition could lead to a directional move. Or, at least, at a shake out capable to remove from current action all the weak hands piled on in the last 3 days of very weak action downside.

In any case the weaknesses left above are very impressive right now, considering the 7 poor highs in a row made by different sessions up to last Friday high at 23275. At the same time the auction downside is clearly not completed as yesterday pit session made a poor low and we still have to solve the old double pass gaps (GB+pit US) down to 2084 level.

So: if it will continue lower from here without any correction of the weaknesses upside: carry this information forward because at the first occasion a news, an exogenous event or whatever could trigger a fast sharp retracement of all what have been made in the last 3 days at least. If instead it will correct some above (enough to remove most of the weak hands piled on current action) price could then continue lower in a stronger way in order to test the major references downside and complete the auction in that direction.

Note current Tokyo action glued at composite poc all night long at 2163 but also testing the Tokyo lowest low for 2016 at the same level.

The GB open could happen inside yesterday GB range 21385-2187: initial acceptation of it is expected then tests of its extremes up and/or down. In this case remember that 2016 GB lowest close is at 2156 while the lowest low is at 21137 (almost same level of the poor low made 17.01 of current year.) Before 2156 we have the major reference of 21353. (it's a go no go level for GB)
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  • #3,876
  • Mar 9, 2017 11:30am Mar 9, 2017 11:30am
Quoting Lock
17/03/09 THURSDAY 08:30+1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT ... On Tuesday the short term trend downside continue lower down to the composite poc at 2163 (a few pips above it) remaining in balance there the next day. It was not able to even test the lower short term reference at 21353 On Wednesday morning the situation didn't change: still balance around the composite poc at 2163: not enough volume to evade it. And still not able to test the lower short term reference at 21353
Quoting Lock
Finally yesterday pit session continued the balance around the major composite poc at 2163 as it did also Tokyo all night long: still no volume to evade it.
Quoting Lock
Now, my opinion is that the current composite profile (made in the last 2 days) is enough prominent to avoid any possible profitable continuation in this balance action: the search for a new fair place at which business could be conducted is currently very probable. This condition could lead to a directional move. Or, at least, at a shake out capable to remove from current action all the weak hands piled on in the last 3 days of very weak action downside.
Quoting Lock
17/03/09 THURSDAY 08:30+1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT .... Before 2156 we have the major reference of 21353. (it's a go no go level for GB)
So no surprises for today: GB remained in balance around composite poc at 2163 untill preUS open, Pre US tested above, forcing the short covering started during final part of GB session then pit US opened gapping higher from yesterday pit high (2178) and liquidated everything down to the major short term refference at 21353. It failed below it once then started an other short covering back to composite poc 2163. This shake out, highly expected, removed some weak participants from market action, specially those who put their stops at 2186 old GB spike base. (see previous posts to see I underlined this important reference**)

**
Quoting Lock
17/03/07 TUESDAY 12:34+1GMT LATE MORNING REPORT ... Note that current GB price action is testing the very important old GB spike base at 2186 (17.01.17) Generally such a big ref produce at least a first bounce: then we have to see if we could get acceptation below it or not.
So Tuesday GB tested it from above (and was not able to get acceptation below it), then yesterday it tested from below (because GB opened below it) and was not able to stay above it, finally today GB remained in balance between this level upside at 2186 and 21353 downside while the following pit session tested both: first it tested above 2186 then it tested below 21353.
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  • #3,877
  • Mar 9, 2017 11:52am Mar 9, 2017 11:52am
Currently note C and D lows at overnight low 21385 (GB low), E low (last period of London) exactly at GB open level 21555 while B high is at yesterday pit high (2178) and finally F high at yesterday pit open 21715: only weak hands here.
Then note price action glued to composite poc 2163: when a market is ruled by weak hands it is very difficult for them to evade such a pole of attraction. Volume is needed to evade it.
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  • #3,878
  • Mar 9, 2017 11:56am Mar 9, 2017 11:56am
Quoting Lock
17/03/09 THURSDAY 08:30+1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT {quote} ....The GB open could happen inside yesterday GB range 21385-2187: initial acceptation of it is expected then tests of its extremes up and/or down. ...
Note that GB opened inside yesterday GB range: this range has been respected (as expected) then tests have been made above and below it before London close. Knowing market participants behaviour could help you to avoid greater expectations and could also help you to avoid overtrading when a market is clearly weak from start.
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  • #3,879
  • Mar 9, 2017 12:06pm Mar 9, 2017 12:06pm
Quoting Lock
Currently note C and D lows at overnight low 21385 (GB low), E low (last period of London) exactly at GB open level 21555 while B high is at yesterday pit high (2178) and finally F high at yesterday pit open 21715: only weak hands here. Then note price action glued to composite poc 2163: when a market is ruled by weak hands it is very difficult for them to evade such a pole of attraction. Volume is needed to evade it.
Weaknesses above both taken out. Watch out if you will not see continuation upside: it could retrace to take out those remaining downside or retrace to the poc. In case of continuation we could aim at the double pass pit gap above 22115. But we need volume for this task.
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  • #3,880
  • Mar 9, 2017 12:17pm Mar 9, 2017 12:17pm
Back to back preUS high and current pit high: it is weak now.
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