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The Really Useless Thread

  • #148,141
  • Mar 4, 2017 10:11am Mar 4, 2017 10:11am
"every strong reaction esp if is big vested interest is reaction to a cause.
Its not traders job to determine if the cause is correct. That is the job of the implementors.
The job of the the trader is to respond ,maneuver the books to be well placed on the reactions of the markets" by fti.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #148,142
  • Mar 4, 2017 10:21am Mar 4, 2017 10:21am
Quoting priceaction1
"every strong reaction esp if is big vested interest is reaction to a cause. Its not traders job to determine if the cause is correct. That is the job of the implementors. The job of the the trader is to respond ,maneuver the books to be well placed on the reactions of the markets" by fti.
I agree to the lines but if the trader don't have a map how he/she will trade .. entry and exit ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,143
  • Mar 4, 2017 10:36am Mar 4, 2017 10:36am
"NIMBLE..........no mind.
Know self, know thy enemy.
TIMING.
skill.
MOST OF ALL, ALWAYS, Grossly over Capitalised with all sorts tricks in my bag,manouver Dig out of any possibilities.
Also I can see where the BIG boys and FRIENDS hitting me.
Most importantly, i know what the indicators peeps will be doing, when i See their inflow.
Me used to make the patterns for trading". by fti one of big boy some time back.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #148,144
  • Mar 4, 2017 10:48am Mar 4, 2017 10:48am
The most important thing in the game is timing and direction ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,145
  • Mar 4, 2017 10:54am Mar 4, 2017 10:54am
This market is not our market it is play ground of big boys they have the game plan, they move the price from one point to another with/ with out any reason. At our level we have to dance on there foot print. The price is there foot print. they are market maker, price always movie there, where is the market.we see a price level where market agree upon. to move up to that point price dose give some conman hints. we at retail level have to pick these hints. and yes we do not trade the Forex market we just trade derivative of Forex market.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #148,146
  • Mar 4, 2017 10:59am Mar 4, 2017 10:59am
Impressive grind on MASI, offering one of best playgrounds on equities for a while. For those unaware, it has one of new gen edges in healthcare monitoring (non physical), heavy possible future exposure to many markets, earnings that are killing and beating expectations on regular basis (altough on decline, but not main priority on hc stocks), overall pretty solid with just few little holes in between.
Been watclisting this one since early Feb looking for performance from 73 to potentially 80 over a month on hold trades, was totally off as its printing 93 atm a month later.
One of those instruments that even though its in ridiculus up trend, it is not yet overextended, there is room for a more. Probably some help from Trump de-regulation in future aswell especially since that move would cause high cost/price companies to underperform, meanwhile MASI has edge on covering since start (altough not yet fully in place) low cost oportunities. With that in mind calling 100 as target over short/mid term. Tracking Tuesday/Wend for short term possible mover.m
  • #148,147
  • Mar 4, 2017 11:01am Mar 4, 2017 11:01am
Quoting priceaction1
This market is not our market it is play ground of big boys they have the game plan, they move the price from one point to another with/ with out any reason. At our level we have to dance on there foot print. The price is there foot print. they are market maker, price always movie there, where is the market.we see a price level where market agree upon. to move up to that point price dose give some conman hints. we at retail level have to pick these hints. and yes we do not trade the Forex market we just trade derivative of Forex market.
Dude what got you inspired to get into poetry?
  • #148,148
  • Mar 4, 2017 11:02am Mar 4, 2017 11:02am
price did not move according to indicators but indicators does.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #148,149
  • Mar 4, 2017 11:05am Mar 4, 2017 11:05am
profit does
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...04#post9613804
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #148,150
  • Mar 4, 2017 11:10am Mar 4, 2017 11:10am
Quoting priceaction1
This market is not our market it is play ground of big boys they have the game plan, they move the price from one point to another with/ with out any reason. At our level we have to dance on there foot print. The price is there foot print. they are market maker, price always movie there, where is the market.we see a price level where market agree upon. to move up to that point price dose give some conman hints. we at retail level have to pick these hints. and yes we do not trade the Forex market we just trade derivative of Forex market.
1000℅ agree price moves with or without any reason ... This is what I said it earlier and many times but no one agree's ... Bloody hell this is the only reason behind the spike yesterday that there is no reason ...
Big boys just want to reload at the most best level without damaging their game so that they can squeeze till the single penny is out ...
It is the work of the market to think very very advance (I.e., Big players)
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,151
  • Mar 4, 2017 11:30am Mar 4, 2017 11:30am
be there before where they (big boys) want to go. at present they may want to go @1.0830-1.0880 area. I am there to say hello. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...25#post9626125
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #148,152
  • Mar 4, 2017 11:33am Mar 4, 2017 11:33am
actually they have there own reason but we don't know many time so leave it to them.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #148,153
  • Mar 4, 2017 11:47am Mar 4, 2017 11:47am
Quoting priceaction1
be there before where they (big boys) want to go. at present they may want to go @1.0830-1.0880 area. I am there to say hello. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...25#post9626125
Do agree but I have my own levels as I am locked and loaded from higher levels ... 1.08xxx or 1.09xxx that is not my point ... My point is to funnel down to the last digit ... My every trade gives me a handsome reward but I am really bad in the exit theory and thousands of times my 400+ green pips turns into red and gets s/o ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,154
  • Edited 2:41pm Mar 4, 2017 2:24pm | Edited 2:41pm
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Do agree but I have my own levels as I am locked and loaded from higher levels ... 1.08xxx or 1.09xxx that is not my point ... My point is to funnel down to the last digit ... My every trade gives me a handsome reward but I am really bad in the exit theory and thousands of times my 400+ green pips turns into red and gets s/o ...
No such thing as separation of exit and entry theory. RRR is adjusted to market, if your forcing it your arent listening to market, if majority of trades are being stoped you arent listening to market with your game. If 400 pips are RR 1:3+ and your stoped you should work on your hold or procedural taking of prfoits from trade. There is no magic ball to exit theory, you either are with market/catalyst conditions that have chance to push price to your expectation or not, end of point. If your stoped in most cases you arent, adjust. TP isnt about funneling down to exact price you want, its about taking chips of the table one by one before casino spots that you have exact and profitable game going on.
Risk first, profits second, but if profits are unrealized most of time times it means undercapitalization of market expectations. Dont take this as critique its just price vs expectation mark that will reflect in your trades.
  • #148,155
  • Mar 4, 2017 5:41pm Mar 4, 2017 5:41pm
Quoting roobii
{quote} if I'm learning anything and this is about risk.... market pricing in at 77 percent and being at these lows.... and with the good macro numbers from europe... the only moves down came mostly from the dollar side so at this point i think big hands taking profit at the bottom trapping retailers until next week and even fed to suck up people going the other way to come back down..... maybe a double whammy with election risk? 1a


Quoting primejarvis
so the point is where the hell this expectation went off …. We are directly trading facts …as sisse said bottom is around the corner (1000% agree to him)
now comes all the political BS …
so can anyone guess the Reason for the spike ..
1. Article 50 (UK)
2. Election around the corner (Europe)
3. Fed rate hike / NFP
4. Almost all CB are coming to deliver their best one after the another …(SNB, FED, ECB)
Any views highly appreciated …
I originally picked 1a for the midday iteration and hopefully sisse could correct me if i was wrong on my sypnosis. I would have to go into my notes but we had a similar iteration like this in the past. But remember its not that we are trading facts we are trading expectations.... and as I understand and stated before and sisse mentioned it earlier that CME jumped in expectation and the closer we got to 85% the closer we are to a done deal. But if you look at the dollar rally with good news/ trump tweets/conference etc. Dollar was very strong vs most pairs but Euro didn't drop as much and we've been getting good macro numbers for a while now. Also, the political risk in EU subsided especially this week as French election outcomes became more manageable investor wise. So, if we had more risk we would have ignored macro numbers and probably broke support. But as new info from euro and more US facts came out... we didn't break support and hike was damn near priced in at 81% at the time yellen spoke so I don't think it was necessarily a spike out of nowhere.... just end of the day... big hands who were buying dollars took profit and those (retailers and latecomers as sisse always explains) got trapped... we were at support and damn near breaking it but if we don't break then risk and profit loss starts to increase so big players aka smart money get spooked and might take their profit and run leaving everyone else scrambling.... smart money is just waiting to short and a better price if market conditions align... I would say look at around nov 28th we had NFP and crucial fed meeting coming and rates were almost fully expected and we were at .52 is on euro after a 700+ drop and that major dollar rally ... and then as we got closer to nfp and all this news events... we bounced right off support as profit taking occurred... even though we knew the rate hike was coming... and then it retraced to the top of the range (.8ish) in time for smart money to short again .... this stuff is crappy and counterintuitive but damn it if it was easy everyone would be doing it... thats why they call it smart money right? but for now thats all i got from the move.
  • #148,156
  • Mar 4, 2017 6:37pm Mar 4, 2017 6:37pm
@ROOBII "big hands who were buying dollars took profit" and those (retailers and latecomers as sisse always explains) got trapped.

"and then as we got closer to nfp and all this news events... we bounced right off support as profit taking occurred'
Did you think that they took profit during bounced, no it was not like that, the profit taking was done (if any) before up side move what we have to find out is clue for distribution/accumulation.
for me this was the profit taking area not when it spike up https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...6&d=1488380935
and https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...34#post9619234
the run away price cause panic short covering which add more flue to fire. The big boys have many time frame to trade it may be short bias on high time frame, and long bias on short time frame. simply we don't know.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #148,157
  • Mar 4, 2017 6:53pm Mar 4, 2017 6:53pm
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Do agree but I have my own levels as I am locked and loaded from higher levels ... 1.08xxx or 1.09xxx that is not my point ... My point is to funnel down to the last digit ... My every trade gives me a handsome reward but I am really bad in the exit theory and thousands of times my 400+ green pips turns into red and gets s/o ...
simply set profit target and pull the trigger when price reached there. don't go for last drop of pips. some time a 100 pip profit wash out just for extra 10-15 pips. live in Now time frame. what price did in few second before is just past, any profit/loss associated to that move was paper profit/loss. the time when you pull the trigger is your true profit point. it is hard to close a 100 pip profit trade at 70-80 pip profit as our mind see it as 20-30 pip loss bcz it once see +100 pip profit. we have to trained our mind.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #148,158
  • Mar 4, 2017 7:06pm Mar 4, 2017 7:06pm
this may help too.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...04#post7601504
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #148,159
  • Mar 4, 2017 7:44pm Mar 4, 2017 7:44pm
Quoting priceaction1
@ROOBII "big hands who were buying dollars took profit" and those (retailers and latecomers as sisse always explains) got trapped. "and then as we got closer to nfp and all this news events... we bounced right off support as profit taking occurred' Did you think that they took profit during bounced, no it was not like that, the profit taking was done (if any) before up side move what we have to find out is clue for distribution/accumulation. for me this was the profit taking area not when it spike up https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...6&d=1488380935...
i don't get what you mean... which area was profit taken? you're chart doesn't point out anything and if you look up a good COT report it would give you an idea of what commercial traders were doing but for me the more i look at it.... especially at week end and major support ...profit taking definitely happened there... but on the case of the euro i also think smart money might be positioning for longs too... but even if so.... why drop any new major positions over the weekend after a huge dollar rally
  • #148,160
  • Mar 4, 2017 8:01pm Mar 4, 2017 8:01pm
simply smart money book profit before up move.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
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