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The Really Useless Thread

  • #148,081
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:29am Mar 3, 2017 5:29am
1c ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,082
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:29am Mar 3, 2017 5:29am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} It's getting worse for him on the judicial side but he finally decides to continue the race, more shameful than ever ("it's the fault of medias and justice, they don't want me to win" song). That will decrease his chances to go through second round, but more importantly if he finally manages to do it, odds to defeat Le Pen at the second round will be smaller. All in all, i will say something between nothing new and bearish for euro*.
Quick french presidential update for those interested : days counted now for right-wing leader Fillon, half of his staff have already gone, while more and more right-wing MPs urge him to drop presidential bid. However it should not happened before sunday as Fillon planned that day a ridicoulous demonstration against...judges (!) in Trocadero, Paris. Tuesday could be the day with Sarkozy team deciding to remove their support or not. Alain Juppe (much more moderate and easily able to gather French behind him in case of a run-off with Le Pen) is expected to replace him. It should be quite bullish for euro*, at least for the knee jerk reaction. A fresh poll even shows we could then be crumbs away of a second round with both Macron and Juppe.
  • #148,083
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:30am Mar 3, 2017 5:30am
1b
  • #148,084
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:35am Mar 3, 2017 5:35am
Quoting gammase1
{quote} There is great scope for a strong mid-term turnaround in EURUSD. Fed Funds Futures are now implying a 77% chance of a March rate hike - making it a done deal. in the view of the market. In reflecting this recent change of sentiment, 2-year Treasury yields have risen over 15bps over the past week, climbing from 1.14% to 1.31% - where they are currently trading. By comparison, the yield on the 2-year bund remains firmly in negative territory, yielding -0.81% - a level which is wholly inappropriate to Germany, where inflation is printing 2.2%,...
Pretty much agree.

-> Today's at the close will confirm 'hikes as done deal' and even a flop in March wont change the outcome any longer.

-> Risk via Elections and to lesser extend Brexit jitters (this will increase later in the year if negotiations turns sour for the EU [not expected but rather negative for the UK alone] is the one holding the horses. If it weren't for the latest populist wins and flops in the election polls, this will be also a done deal. In the particular case of France, the odds are severely against any surprises but markets are rather cautious this time.

-> NFP just for the final kick and as you said for then forward is only about inflation for the rest of the year [in the monetary policy front].

Whatever the case, the end of the start of the normalisation process in the US is finally in play right now.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,085
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:36am Mar 3, 2017 5:36am
Quoting sisse
{quote} You maybe getting too close to the market ...its a 2 years major low (currently 7th major test in the same period ) that unlocks 15 year old levels. Let me ask you a question right now before NY: What do you think has more odds for today's close: 1a. 'This is a trap, shorts are trapped and getting spank' Euroto close above 1.061x in a one major engulfing bullish candle. 1b. 'Nay just noise, there is nothing to see here' Euro to close around 1.061x until NFP and FED hikes 1c. 'This is just a mini 'dead cat bounce' before the hikes capitulation...
1b. 'Nay just noise, there is nothing to see here' Euro to close around 1.061x until NFP and FED hikes
  • #148,086
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:36am Mar 3, 2017 5:36am
Quoting sisse
Should you put a LMT sell @ 1.051x or LMT buy @ 1.068x ? Gl all trading overnight ... sisse
Noise. But it kind of reopens this question.
  • #148,087
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:49am Mar 3, 2017 5:49am
Quoting sisse
{quote} You maybe getting too close to the market ...its a 2 years major low (currently 7th major test in the same period ) that unlocks 15 year old levels. Let me ask you a question right now before NY: What do you think has more odds for today's close: 1a. 'This is a trap, shorts are trapped and getting spank' Euroto close above 1.061x in a one major engulfing bullish candle. 1b. 'Nay just noise, there is nothing to see here' Euro to close around 1.061x until NFP and FED hikes 1c. 'This is just a mini 'dead cat bounce' before the hikes capitulation...

if I'm learning anything and this is about risk.... market pricing in at 77 percent and being at these lows.... and with the good macro numbers from europe... the only moves down came mostly from the dollar side so at this point i think big hands taking profit at the bottom trapping retailers until next week and even fed to suck up people going the other way to come back down..... maybe a double whammy with election risk?

1a
  • #148,088
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:50am Mar 3, 2017 5:50am
C
We have 4 FED's speech today.
  • #148,089
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:51am Mar 3, 2017 5:51am
Quoting sisse
{quote} You maybe getting too close to the market ...its a 2 years major low (currently 7th major test in the same period ) that unlocks 15 year old levels. Let me ask you a question right now before NY: What do you think has more odds for today's close: 1a. 'This is a trap, shorts are trapped and getting spank' Euroto close above 1.061x in a one major engulfing bullish candle. 1b. 'Nay just noise, there is nothing to see here' Euro to close around 1.061x until NFP and FED hikes 1c. 'This is just a mini 'dead cat bounce' before the hikes capitulation...
1b) aka chance to scale in for the last time...
  • #148,090
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:56am Mar 3, 2017 5:56am
its just a guess .... today's max high 1.0578x .... dont take it seriously as i might be wrong ....

just trying to funnel it down to the maximum ....

if i am right its funneled down with the help of Sisse's Cheat sheet ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,091
  • Mar 3, 2017 5:59am Mar 3, 2017 5:59am
The mover is the dollar*, so the question in my eyes is more appropriately what will the dollar do going into FOMC...elections, as usual are noise until the actual election takes place.

expecting 1c and inline/good Manufacturing PMI. Yellen should continue her normal rhetoric for an otherwise uneventful speech. Anything else, even 1a is irrelevant for the midterm play (those of us in since 1.08xx)
  • #148,092
  • Mar 3, 2017 6:02am Mar 3, 2017 6:02am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Noise. But it kind of reopens this question.
Well relatively but we extended the lows to 1.048x now...

As we discussed last time...the failure to take it that time sadly killed the surprise move as everybody around had time to track 1.051x with plenty of time.

By common sense alone and as it's widely expected in an area like this, all indicators should be in screaming oversold on top of testing major S and to put the cherry on top we got a plethora of positive news from the Euro both in the political and macro front.

You seem to have got better and better on the timing and flows since last few iterations so let me give you a couple of extra more complex hints for your to explore (not to trade directly if it doesn't 'click' in your view !!!):

-> If you are eyeballing in a pro trade (very advanced) you should check 1.057x with the open. If Equities give you the go ahead you can outguess the flow. Particularly useful if you are very well loaded (only adding some extra positions) and know exactly what you are doing and how to take it quickly. If not you should look to manage your positions and protect profits (assuming you are in profits).

-> If you want to outguess a potential hikes play today (via Yellen? not really expected as the speech is expected to be irrelevant but it's the only one in the calendar regarding hikes) use the opening range with soft reports (you want an overshoot, a large one) and fade the highs expecting a hand after Europe goes home to kill it if Yellen doesn't help or price stall...

Both are extremely advanced and pro plays assuming you are outguessing the final hike leg is today and outsmarting the soft hands holding from 1.050xx. What it means is the momentum play is not longer the best possible trade today and like always you should aim to take the path of less resistance. If that is doing nothing, well do nothing. Otherwise, you will need to raise the level to caught it from a different angle as the momentum play alone wont cut it (doesn't provide the best r:r in comparison with the other options)today....

GL

There is plenty of info there. It may get confusing and complex...read it many times with a chart next to it ...shoot questions later if any..

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,093
  • Mar 3, 2017 6:03am Mar 3, 2017 6:03am
Quoting Pharm0r
The mover is the dollar*, so the question in my eyes is more appropriately what will the dollar do going into FOMC...elections, as usual are noise until the actual election takes place. expecting 1c and inline/good Manufacturing PMI. Yellen should continue her normal rhetoric for an otherwise uneventful speech.
yellen in my view will be hawkish ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,094
  • Mar 3, 2017 6:12am Mar 3, 2017 6:12am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} yellen in my view will be hawkish ....
correct- no reason for her to change rhetoric 15 days before fomc at an uneventful dog and pony show
  • #148,095
  • Mar 3, 2017 6:23am Mar 3, 2017 6:23am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Final call in SNAP .... The bell will automatically close the iteration. a. Buy MKT @ $24.5 targeting a return of TP1 (10%) => $26.9x => TP2 (20%) $29.4x STPs 3% below the lows of the range. Earleone Pharm0r Replicant cashfacto b. Buy LMT 10% below @$22.x0 targeting TP1 (22%) => $26.9x => TP2 (34%) $29.4x STP 5% below hoom...
B please
  • #148,096
  • Mar 3, 2017 6:27am Mar 3, 2017 6:27am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well relatively but we extended the lows to 1.048x now... As we discussed last time...the failure to take it that time sadly killed the surprise move as everybody around had time to track 1.051x with plenty of time. By common sense alone and as it's widely expected in an area like this, all indicators should be in screaming oversold on top of testing major S and to put the cherry on top we got a plethora of positive news from the Euro both in the political and macro front. You seem to have got better and better on the timing and flows since...
Thanks. Will do. Ill soak it in a bit and resist the urge to fire 20 questions at you as they pop into my head. But I think I'm down with your general point there.
  • #148,097
  • Mar 3, 2017 6:54am Mar 3, 2017 6:54am
Quoting sisse
{quote} a. Buy MKT @ $24.5 targeting a return of TP1 (10%) => $26.9x => TP2 (20%) $29.4x STPs 3% below the lows of the range. Earleone Pharm0r Replicant cashfacto b. Buy LMT 10% below @$22.x0 targeting TP1 (22%) => $26.9x => TP2 (34%) $29.4x STP 5% below hoom goosebone...
Sisse how long is this opportunity relevant? Does it end with todays close, because flow and volatility will fall off, or is it something you can track for weeks since opening?
  • #148,098
  • Mar 3, 2017 7:09am Mar 3, 2017 7:09am
Quoting Grinsakh
{quote} Sisse how long is this opportunity relevant? Does it end with todays close, because flow and volatility will fall off, or is it something you can track for weeks since opening?
Will raise the same question
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,099
  • Mar 3, 2017 7:52am Mar 3, 2017 7:52am
Nice moves on SNAPy today, solid moves even on non market hours.
  • #148,100
  • Mar 3, 2017 8:03am Mar 3, 2017 8:03am
Quoting janpec1000
Nice moves on SNAPy today, solid moves even on non market hours.
yep 29.x already !
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