Find it The Best Entry Points
Didn't get to trade today, busy with school but I took some off time to study the system some more. One important thing I came up with is the importance of taking trades only when the price has reached the level for the FIRST time. Notice the 4/8 level, which btw is a very strong hourly level. Both GBPJPY, and GBPCAD hit the 4/8 pivot level during the New York Session but only GBPCAD reversed while GBPJPY went through. Why did this happen? Well if you look at both charts you will notice that GBPJPY hit its 4/8 level at 23:00 (broker time) and had...
Find it The Best Entry Points
{quote} There is no doubting you are on top of your game with the use of Murrey, Brilliant trading my friend, all my charts have Murrey set to 64 {image} {image} {image}
Later I will post some analysis on Price Action surrounding profitable trades since I believe that is a key factory before taking trades. What is price doing before it hits a key level, or what is it not doing before it hits a "fake level?"
Also noticing why some +/- 1/8 and 2/8 trades on the 1 minute are better than others.
- #92
- Mar 2, 2017 4:36pm Mar 2, 2017 4:36pm
- Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Trader | 5,146 Posts
{quote} I believe you have the best set up, to get the daily, hour and minute lined up, I however am not nearly as patient to wait for those trades lol
Just wanted to highlight the one (or two) things I have noticed from my winners and from my losers. The first is price action, which I have mentioned many times (sounding like a broken record), and the second is psychology.
1. Price movement/Price action before a level is one of the most important things you could check for before taking a trade. Price movement = interest, that means there are many traders interested in the current price, or wherever price is headed. It means they are likely looking at the same thing you are looking at. The strongest bounces are almost always after the strongest pushes. Think of it like this, how many times do you see price (non news related), suddenly shoot up from a flat range and go for 10-20+ pips? Almost never. I have noticed that almost all of my winning trades were after a big candle.
Pictures A-C show strong price movement before reaching the level.
Picture D shows my recent EURUSD that did not profit because as you see price movement was kind of stalling beforehand. Yes there were 3 strong candles down but then price stalled right before hitting it. If it was a really important level price would have pushed that extra 1 or 2 pips and bounced strongly.
2. Psychology is important as well when it comes to trading. And I am not really talking about your own psychology. I am talking about the collective psychology of all traders in the market, most importantly those with the money. My profitable trades in my opinion are always the most obvious. Professional traders I would imagine don't have many fancy indicators on their charts. I imagine they use basic S/R, and most traders use basic S/R. In addition most of the stops, which= liquidity are made at the most obvious points, highs and lows.
How is this useful? Well there are many +/- 1/8 and 2/8 levels on the 1 minute chart. But not all of them should be taken. In addition the +/- 1/8 and 2/8 levels are often close to each other, which one should you trade off of? Well ask yourself this before going into a trade. If you were any trader, any new trader or seasoned veteran. Where would you place your stop, where would you sell. Where is the most obvious area of support and resistance. If you can't figure that out, and it is not clear to you, chances are it isn't clear to everyone else and the movement will be choppy or not as strong. Finding areas of Support and Resistance isn't hard, but choosing which ones are valid is. The best S/R are the most obvious ones.
For example, today I took a short on the EURAUD +1/8 hourly level when I should have taken it on the +2/8 level. Why? Well if you look at the 1 hour chart, the +2/8 level represents are more obvious area where one might draw resistance. Blue is where I took my first trade (loss) at the +1/8, and the red line is where I entered again for profit, at the +2/8. As you can see if you entered higher than that you would have profited even more.
Here is an example of my GBP/AUD trade. The +2/8 level was at an obvious level of resistance, anyone would have drawn resistance there hence the strong bounce off of it.
My last example is again the losing EURUSD trade. Here, besides the lack of strong price action you will notice that the area of support is ambiguous, it could have been drawn at several points, none of which are really clear. If the minute 1 isn't showing you a clear level of S/R, I would advise switching to a higher time frame, it would be clearer.
Takeaway is that if a trade is not obvious to you, it probably isn't obvious to everyone else. The biggest fault of traders is that we over complicate everything. We add indicators, crazy pattern analysis. The more factors you add into a trade the less likely it is to provide an edge in my opinion. What are the chances every trader is thinking the same way as you and your 10 indicator system? Probably very low. What are the chances most traders are looking at the same obvious S/R line, very high.
1. Price movement/Price action before a level is one of the most important things you could check for before taking a trade. Price movement = interest, that means there are many traders interested in the current price, or wherever price is headed. It means they are likely looking at the same thing you are looking at. The strongest bounces are almost always after the strongest pushes. Think of it like this, how many times do you see price (non news related), suddenly shoot up from a flat range and go for 10-20+ pips? Almost never. I have noticed that almost all of my winning trades were after a big candle.
Pictures A-C show strong price movement before reaching the level.
Picture D shows my recent EURUSD that did not profit because as you see price movement was kind of stalling beforehand. Yes there were 3 strong candles down but then price stalled right before hitting it. If it was a really important level price would have pushed that extra 1 or 2 pips and bounced strongly.
A)
B)
C)
D) - No strong price movement, stalls right before reaching level and then flatlines.
2. Psychology is important as well when it comes to trading. And I am not really talking about your own psychology. I am talking about the collective psychology of all traders in the market, most importantly those with the money. My profitable trades in my opinion are always the most obvious. Professional traders I would imagine don't have many fancy indicators on their charts. I imagine they use basic S/R, and most traders use basic S/R. In addition most of the stops, which= liquidity are made at the most obvious points, highs and lows.
How is this useful? Well there are many +/- 1/8 and 2/8 levels on the 1 minute chart. But not all of them should be taken. In addition the +/- 1/8 and 2/8 levels are often close to each other, which one should you trade off of? Well ask yourself this before going into a trade. If you were any trader, any new trader or seasoned veteran. Where would you place your stop, where would you sell. Where is the most obvious area of support and resistance. If you can't figure that out, and it is not clear to you, chances are it isn't clear to everyone else and the movement will be choppy or not as strong. Finding areas of Support and Resistance isn't hard, but choosing which ones are valid is. The best S/R are the most obvious ones.
For example, today I took a short on the EURAUD +1/8 hourly level when I should have taken it on the +2/8 level. Why? Well if you look at the 1 hour chart, the +2/8 level represents are more obvious area where one might draw resistance. Blue is where I took my first trade (loss) at the +1/8, and the red line is where I entered again for profit, at the +2/8. As you can see if you entered higher than that you would have profited even more.
Here is an example of my GBP/AUD trade. The +2/8 level was at an obvious level of resistance, anyone would have drawn resistance there hence the strong bounce off of it.
My last example is again the losing EURUSD trade. Here, besides the lack of strong price action you will notice that the area of support is ambiguous, it could have been drawn at several points, none of which are really clear. If the minute 1 isn't showing you a clear level of S/R, I would advise switching to a higher time frame, it would be clearer.
Takeaway is that if a trade is not obvious to you, it probably isn't obvious to everyone else. The biggest fault of traders is that we over complicate everything. We add indicators, crazy pattern analysis. The more factors you add into a trade the less likely it is to provide an edge in my opinion. What are the chances every trader is thinking the same way as you and your 10 indicator system? Probably very low. What are the chances most traders are looking at the same obvious S/R line, very high.
- #98
- Mar 3, 2017 12:23am Mar 3, 2017 12:23am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Mar 2016 | 1,389 Posts
donīt follow me,you will loose your moneyy
- #100
- Mar 3, 2017 9:15am Mar 3, 2017 9:15am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trade Small, Win Big | 4,988 Posts
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker