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The Really Useless Thread

  • #148,001
  • Edited 7:25pm Mar 1, 2017 5:49pm | Edited 7:25pm
510 was broken last week. Rejection from 49x. I can see bounce today from 51x clear as day. Also it's significance on the monthly chart (my candles close/open at the bottom of 52x so 51x is a break of those levels). But having a hard time putting as much weight on it as I read here. Is it November's low? Making a swing low that needs to be broken with a close to confirm direction TAwise? Maybe my focus is off. Got to learn what makes a momentum play since it wouldn't surprise me to break 510 and bounce somewhere <20 pips below. Too close perhaps.

Uj looks ready for some fun. Maybe some questions get answered tonight (EST)
  • #148,002
  • Mar 1, 2017 8:15pm Mar 1, 2017 8:15pm
Can someone tell me what the expectations for hikes are?
  • #148,003
  • Mar 1, 2017 8:24pm Mar 1, 2017 8:24pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Can someone tell me what the expectations for hikes are?
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/inte...n-to-fomc.html
  • #148,004
  • Edited 8:40pm Mar 1, 2017 8:27pm | Edited 8:40pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/inte...n-to-fomc.html
lol nvm
  • #148,005
  • Edited 9:28pm Mar 1, 2017 9:03pm | Edited 9:28pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} lol nvm
  • #148,006
  • Mar 2, 2017 12:54am Mar 2, 2017 12:54am
Beware the Ides of March

March comes in like a lion, and goes out like a lamb ???
  • #148,007
  • Mar 2, 2017 1:08am Mar 2, 2017 1:08am
Quoting sisse
{quote} 1 is momentum play the other is nothing... sisse
Good one ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #148,008
  • Mar 2, 2017 3:33am Mar 2, 2017 3:33am
Very solid numbers keep coming from the EZ. As expected for the European opening Euro @ 1.053x sitting officially in limbo waiting for a resolution sentence to come out any minute ...

On the rest of the board we are all cleared until NFP ...

sisse

Quoting Pharm0r
Can someone tell me what the expectations for hikes are?
As per today we have officially confirmation that FED overstayed in completing the initial normalisation cycle by nearly a year (some say even longer) and now the economy and markets are already in the next stage. Rates, the economy and markets are forming a huge and dangerous divergence right now.

In simple words not only the need to kill the initial normalisation cycle ASAP (March) but macro numbers, valuation and key markets have officially entered in overheat mode ('cause Trump trigger) with such a ridiculous low rates. FED need to adapt rates and economic policy urgently ! (especially with the unpredictability and lack of details of Trump in the economic policy front) to avoid the US economy and markets to get toasted by overheat on greed and not economic reality.

I am tracking very closely FED next coming weeks ....we have mid and long term outlooks changes in Dollar around the corner one way or the other...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,009
  • Mar 2, 2017 4:09am Mar 2, 2017 4:09am
Sisse, how do you think the 'normalisation' process applies to the UK? I understand that UK interest rates have historically followed US so do you see any rate rises in Blighty over the next year or so?
Thanks!
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #148,010
  • Mar 2, 2017 4:12am Mar 2, 2017 4:12am
USDX ,

It is formed a new channel on weekly ( SHI channel ) So for now I have extreme and long term target at 106.60 . Has some distance to go to get there.

We also has fib 61.8 at current level from last leg that I hope weekly close will manage to close above. ( chart 2)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDXWeekly.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDXWeekly-fib-2.png Size: 42 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #148,011
  • Mar 2, 2017 4:13am Mar 2, 2017 4:13am
TRY being in back seat for some time now, getting back into headlights some more with referendum around same time of French elections. Probably singificant long term catalyst in case if referendum does not pass, putting some further bear map on TRY, initiated by political instability, coups, cleanings or internal terrorism. Yes vote is pass for me in case if all goes well in dismantling, especially under low/mild bullish dollar environment.
  • #148,012
  • Mar 2, 2017 6:48am Mar 2, 2017 6:48am
Quoting goosebone
{quote}
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...63#post9569963
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dollal.png Size: 76 KB
  • #148,013
  • Mar 2, 2017 7:05am Mar 2, 2017 7:05am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...63#post9569963 {image}
I like it. Looks good from that side too.
  • #148,014
  • Edited 7:39am Mar 2, 2017 7:07am | Edited 7:39am
Looking for GJ longs trough dollar/JPY very short term play, UJ not there yet. Caught one micro right on pop, now watching dollar closely.
141.0X as initial target, after that there is larger play will see what develops after initial target/if.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daafb12cd1344fc7abf86e6f6ec5074a.png Size: 64 KB



EDIT: UK100 looking for 7375-80 for longs.
  • #148,015
  • Mar 2, 2017 7:28am Mar 2, 2017 7:28am
1.051x again, maybe unemployment data in a few minutes will give the little push
  • #148,016
  • Mar 2, 2017 7:35am Mar 2, 2017 7:35am
Quoting mrcreosote
Sisse, how do you think the 'normalisation' process applies to the UK? I understand that UK interest rates have historically followed US so do you see any rate rises in Blighty over the next year or so? Thanks!
--> Rates in the UK are a big cluster fck for the BOE because of Brexit. As long as macro numbers hold with a slightly [only] above inflation target we'll keep the status quo but is a ticking bomb.

--> BOE can't hike too easy even if from a strictly monetary policy point of view is ready because it can trigger a snowball in the economy and Equities with official Brexit announcement 'minutes' away this month. If things turn sour (as its widely expected in the negotiation / internal political front and etc) in the next few weeks the BOE needs to keep flooding the market with cash to keep the jitters and big hands at bay.

--> As long as risk, jitters and a massive impact in the real economy if the UK abandon the common market, the normalisation process will be subdue to the political ebb and flow in the short term. Once and depending on how we clear that the BOE will have a incredible complicate task too as it will need to hike quickly to avoid a complete wipe out on real wages via inflation but at the same have a full policy arsenal ready for Brexit 3.0 (when the UK actually leave all and stay isolated from trade for a few years +2018)

As we discussed many times, BOE has the hardest task of all CB around the world in the next few years and to put an extra pressure on, it has a dinosaur nationalistic government trying to interfere with the independence of the CB for political reasons ...

This topic is far from over and we'll be in the centre of discussion in the FX board for a long time...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,017
  • Mar 2, 2017 7:49am Mar 2, 2017 7:49am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I like it. Looks good from that side too.
The point was, if a person traded the expectations regardless of the trigger, you'd be in profit on AU, EU, GU, UJ, etc which is what I was trying to hint @ on the 14th/Feb. It seems to me, that patience is the underlying problem to a lot of the worries in the thread

After you mentioned in PM discounting the election candle for the mofu line on EU, I did the same on DX....and vuala! A perfect trigger, although I missed it at that point, valid none the less - interesting but not what I was trying to illustrate with the chart....more so that dollar has done exactly as expected since sisse called RMT
  • #148,018
  • Mar 2, 2017 7:59am Mar 2, 2017 7:59am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} The point was, if you just (not you specifically) traded the expectations and worried less about the trigger, you'd be in profit on AU, EU, GU, UJ, etc which is what I was trying to hint @ on the 14th/Feb After you mentioned discounting the election candle for the mofu line on EU, I did the same on DX....and vuala! A perfect trigger, although I missed it at that point, valid non the less
Most definitely. Trying to get this momentum thing.
I'm in short from higher. Not high enough imo cuz I chickened out on my own entry level at 830 for exactly the reason you are talking about. Focusing on perfect place for entry instead of just getting on the damn bus. A wise man once said "if your outlook is sell, just sell".
That 510 has been a topic so I want to grasp why in the context of momentum play but I can see how the discussion makes it look like a bunch of chewing on micro levels.
  • #148,019
  • Mar 2, 2017 8:26am Mar 2, 2017 8:26am
Eyes on NY for the open but more importantly tracking the Fix today in Sterling and Euro.

sisse

Quoting sisse
V.....@Earleone: Assuming your read this before is too late. Euro is @ 1.0600. Should you apply don't be a 'dick for a tick' and trigger the entry @ market with NY open or j....
A quick update on the last mini extra iteration:

@Earleone very well done and all those that rode it from the 1.06xx handle ....

Direct -> 1.061x [check] -> TP1 1.049 [check] -> TP2 1.039X

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #148,020
  • Mar 2, 2017 8:58am Mar 2, 2017 8:58am
Looks like we are finally leaving the 2 year range.
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