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Murrey Math and Quantum Method

  • #41
  • Feb 27, 2017 12:23pm Feb 27, 2017 12:23pm
Quoting rnsfrd
{quote} {quote} Thank you, I'll try to keep posting charts every night until I decide whether or not to go live with the system. Then I'll start a Trader Journal. I have always been a high leverage scalper type, and these lines have really been a game changer. If I go live I think a 3 step martingale money management system would work pretty well given the high probability trades. Since the probability of a profitable trade is about 75% off key levels on the 1 minute chart, and 95% for 1 hour bounces, I think martingale might actually work. Ex:...
Rnsfrd,

Thanks for extra effort in posting the charts.

You have noticed a high probability trading off hourly charts. Is it restricted to +/- 2/8 levels or as well +/- 1/8 levels as well?

On a side note, I am curious as to the introduction of martingale [I have a very basic idea of how martingale plays out]. Any specific advantages the introduction of Martingale offers in place of the traditional MM that comes with the standard trade of either Profit or S/L?

Good luck with Going Live... Will be looking forward to your journal.
  • #42
  • Feb 27, 2017 2:31pm Feb 27, 2017 2:31pm
Quoting cescof
{quote} Hy...which setting are you using for Murray math at 1 minute tf? Thanks Regards
I use the 1 minute levels for the Murray Math Lines, so under period you should put 1 or 0 (this automatically sets the period to whatever chart you are using). I would advise you to have a second chart open with the higher time frame Murray Math Lines like the Hourly, 4 Hour, and Day lines so that you aren't trading near those levels, since price might spike near them. Hourly, 4 hour and Daily take priority over minute levels. I just scalp the minute levels until I reach a higher time frame level.

I don't use 5 minute or 15 minute because those give less signals, and the one minute levels provide accurate enough signals, with minimal draw-down. This is just my personal preference. I'd rather risk 1 or 2 pips for 5-10 pips because I scalp with high leverage. The only time I will check the 5 and 15 minute levels, is if I see that a 1 minute level is ambiguous, meaning I think price could turn at several points, and am not really sure which one. Then I would look for confluence with higher time frames like the 5 or 15 minute.
  • #43
  • Feb 27, 2017 2:56pm Feb 27, 2017 2:56pm
Quoting rnsfrd
{quote} I use the 1 minute levels for the Murray Math Lines, so under period you should put 1 or 0 (this automatically sets the period to whatever chart you are using). I would advise you to have a second chart open with the higher time frame Murray Math Lines like the Hourly, 4 Hour, and Day lines so that you aren't trading near those levels, since price might spike near them. Hourly, 4 hour and Daily take priority over minute levels. I just scalp the minute levels until I reach a higher time frame level. I don't use 5 minute or 15 minute because...
Thanks really appreciate..
Regards
  • #44
  • Feb 27, 2017 3:22pm Feb 27, 2017 3:22pm
Quoting aaven
{quote} Rnsfrd, Thanks for extra effort in posting the charts. You have noticed a high probability trading off hourly charts. Is it restricted to +/- 2/8 levels or as well +/- 1/8 levels as well? On a side note, I am curious as to the introduction of martingale [I have a very basic idea of how martingale plays out]. Any specific advantages the introduction of Martingale offers in place of the traditional MM that comes with the standard trade of either Profit or S/L? Good luck with Going Live... Will be looking forward to your journal....
No problem

OAPDave posted a link (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post4201852) where a member outlined a high probability strategy for trading the hourly levels. I'll just outline the main points and what I took from them.

"Lets trade from Level +1 to Level 8. This one scenario repeats itself over and over and over. 8-9 times out of 10 as Price will hit the Level +1 the first time, it will move back down to Level 8."

"What if, you only made a trade based on the first time the Level +1/8 was hit in an hour's time period or even during a session such as London or New York. Meaning, the first time up to bat at level +1/8, the odds of it moving back to Level 8/8 is like 95%. The second time it attempts a move back from Level +1/8 to Level 8/8, the odds are greatly reduced."

"So you take the first hit, but don't take the second hit (Million Dollar Tip There). Or if you take the second attempt, reduce your lot size to represent the higher level of risk."

"Its a way to make great gains, the trend is down, go for it. WHOA.. STOP. If your reading this, and the market has moved down to level 2 and is looking as if it is about to break going down to Level 1 and Level 0; DO Not Be A Seller. When you are a bit more advanced, you can trade the break of Level 2/8 to Level 1/8. But until then, don't do it. The worse thing that will happen is that the market will move lower and you miss the trade. But there is only a 5% chance of success here."

"If during this sell down this is the first time down to Level 1/8 or 0/8 or -1/8, particularly -1/8 then expect the bounce to occur from the -1/8 level. If you only made this one trade 1 time a session x 1 session per day x 3 days per week at +40 pips per trade (remember we are on a EURJPY 1 hour chart) x 2 standard lots x 50 weeks = about $120,000 usd per year not including potential slippage, commissions etc. Here is what we know: This occurs on all time periods, all pairs multiple times per session per day providing a multitude of opportunities."

What I gather from this is that the hourly +/- 1/8 levels are the most important if you want high probability set ups. I have also noticed that price often goes through the 8/8 and 0/0 levels often and bounces from the +/- 1/8, so I don't think I would take the bounces from 0/0 and 8/8, but as I stated before I'm scalping with high leverage so I personally am looking for the best possible set ups.

I took the -1/8 level on GBP/USD1 hour chart last night and it went to +50 with a 2 pip draw down.

If you have a higher tolerance than me then the important hourly levels are 8/8, 0/0, 4/8, and +/- 1/8. I am only looking at +/- 1/8.

As for the +/- 2/8 levels, I suppose those do provide higher probability set ups, however the post from the thread did not mention them in terms of the hourly chart. As for now I look at the major EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, +/- 1/8 levels on the hourly charts for 95% set ups. I look at how much price is bouncing before it hits it. If you see price trying to go up but slipping down a lot, that means there is a lot of interest in selling or a lot of stops built up there. Watching price before it hits a level is key. You should want price to be going crazy, moving a lot --> increased interest.

I also conclude that you must take the bounce from these levels the first time, the second bounce your chances are reduced. I also gather that besides these +/- 1/8 levels on the one hour chart, it is fair game for price to go up or down before it hits that level as he states and your chances of a profitable trade are reduced. Trading breaks is always risky, I rather wait for that +/- 1/8 bounce on the hourly chart and take my almost guaranteed 20 pips for the day. I scalp the 1 minute +/- 1/8 and 2/8 1 minute levels while I wait for the hourly level to get hit.

As for martingale strategy, I only consider it because the probabilities for profitable trades is fairly high. Meaning if a +/- 1/8 level has a 95% chance of producing a profitable trade then a martingale strategy should be fine. But that is gambler's fallacy, thinking that 2 isolated events share the same probability, thinking that I have to win the next one because I lost the previous one, is false. I would probably only apply a martingale if I was using the same pair. I.e. if price did not bounce from the +1/8 level, I would double my lot size and trade the bounce from the +2/8 level. That is an edge because the chances that price doesn't turn at both the +1/8 AND +2/8 on the same pair is very slim. It would not make sense to have a losing trade on +1/8 from EUR/USD, and then go double my lot size on USD/JPY since they are isolated pairs (not technically since they are correlated, but this is going to end up turning into a statistics class so I'll just leave it at that).

The basic idea is that I think losing twice in a row with this system is pretty rare so why not use a martingale system to compensate for the previous loser AND make a decent profit on the second trade. But to be fair I probably won't employ a martingale for this, because when using a martingale you have to set it up for a worst case scenario. Meaning I would probably need to make sure the account survives at least 5-7 losses in a row to be safe, and this would be less profitable than if I just used basic MM with a fixed lot size, since a martingale would always start at a low lot size, decreasing my profits.
  • #45
  • Feb 27, 2017 3:30pm Feb 27, 2017 3:30pm
Thanks vgyuszko for sharing an interesting system.

Below is my Axiory demo results NU M1, com 10$ (high for demo 6$ real). Only two days running the EA as is - seems running 24/5.

What is your pair selection and TF criteria? Is the running time during London session suggested as the EA name implies?

Am testing UJ M1 as well. Will upload results after a week or so.

Cheers,
Akira
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  • #46
  • Feb 27, 2017 11:41pm Feb 27, 2017 11:41pm
Today I see EC and NJ TF1
MQ 240/725
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Find it The Best Entry Points
  • #47
  • Feb 27, 2017 11:47pm Feb 27, 2017 11:47pm
Today I see EC sell and NJ buy TF1
MQ 240/725
Find it The Best Entry Points
  • #48
  • Feb 27, 2017 11:50pm Feb 27, 2017 11:50pm
Quoting rnsfrd
{quote} No problem OAPDave posted a link (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post4201852) where a member outlined a high probability strategy for trading the hourly levels. I'll just outline the main points and what I took from them. "Lets trade from Level +1 to Level 8. This one scenario repeats itself over and over and over. 8-9 times out of 10 as Price will hit the Level +1 the first time, it will move back down to Level 8." "What if, you only made a trade based on the first time the Level +1/8 was hit in...
Find it The Best Entry Points
  • #49
  • Feb 27, 2017 11:50pm Feb 27, 2017 11:50pm
Quoting rnsfrd
{quote} No problem OAPDave posted a link (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post4201852) where a member outlined a high probability strategy for trading the hourly levels. I'll just outline the main points and what I took from them. "Lets trade from Level +1 to Level 8. This one scenario repeats itself over and over and over. 8-9 times out of 10 as Price will hit the Level +1 the first time, it will move back down to Level 8." "What if, you only made a trade based on the first time the Level +1/8 was hit in...
Rnsfrd,

It means a lot to me that you allocated a substantial portion of your time in giving out a beautiful detailed analysis.

I really appreciate it brother...
  • #50
  • Feb 28, 2017 12:30am Feb 28, 2017 12:30am
on m1 chart you are using Murrey Math of what time? thanks
  • #51
  • Feb 28, 2017 12:50am Feb 28, 2017 12:50am
Quoting blueman
on m1 chart you are using Murrey Math of what time? thanks
See above the answer to same question...
Regards
  • #52
  • Feb 28, 2017 12:50am Feb 28, 2017 12:50am
Asia session has been kind of slow and internet has been spotty, going to wait for NYO for set-ups. Probably only going to start trades from 1:50 am est onward, before is really sluggish to scrape even 5 pips.
  • #53
  • Feb 28, 2017 12:51am Feb 28, 2017 12:51am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Rnsfrd, It means a lot to me that you allocated a substantial portion of your time in giving out a beautiful detailed analysis. I really appreciate it brother...
I enjoy studying these lines, they are interesting.
  • #54
  • Feb 28, 2017 1:02am Feb 28, 2017 1:02am
Best to stay out when the market runs flat like this, no clear levels to trade off of, no clear trade plans or set-ups = getting stopped out by random movements. I suppose there is a small trend here but if you notice price is moving pretty erratically, flat then spurs of price, no clear pattern. Going to wait till morning.
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  • #55
  • Feb 28, 2017 4:33am Feb 28, 2017 4:33am
Quoting rnsfrd
Best to stay out when the market runs flat like this, no clear levels to trade off of, no clear trade plans or set-ups = getting stopped out by random movements. I suppose there is a small trend here but if you notice price is moving pretty erratically, flat then spurs of price, no clear pattern. Going to wait till morning. {image}
Could this entry be... a good trade in according with murraymath?
Thanks
Regards
https://gyazo.com/a3522b15c2489eef62010294c85d5a2c
  • #56
  • Feb 28, 2017 4:46am Feb 28, 2017 4:46am
Quoting rnsfrd
{quote} No problem OAPDave posted a link (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post4201852) where a member outlined a high probability strategy for trading the hourly levels. I'll just outline the main points and what I took from them. "Lets trade from Level +1 to Level 8. This one scenario repeats itself over and over and over. 8-9 times out of 10 as Price will hit the Level +1 the first time, it will move back down to Level 8." "What if, you only made a trade based on the first time the Level +1/8 was hit in...
Rnsfrd,

Reread the post again. Great Insights!!!

Could you kindly help me in better understanding the following:

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1. Trading the 1st bounce: Highlighted in Red

Does the bounce has to be a virgin?{for a lack of a better word}

I mean, Within MM lines for a setting of 64 Periods, does the bounce has to the first time? In other words, do we only take the trade when we shouldn't be able to find a bounce off +/- 1/8 when we look back at previous 64 bars?

(or)

Can the bounce can be fresh? Example: The previous bounce was around 32 bars back, and as it is a bit long, we consider the current one bounce as valid?

2. "I also gather that besides these +/- 1/8 levels on the one hour chart, it is fair game for price to go up or down before it hits that level as he states and your chances of a profitable trade are reduced."-->Highlighted in Black.

Could you please elaborate more on the above?

I mean if price crossed 8/8, but did not touch +1/8, but fell down a bit and now if comes again to +1/8 the chances of winning is reduced as opposed to directly bouncing off +1/8 after crossing 8/8?

3. Do you take the trade once price touches +1/8 or wait for it to cross +1/8 and stall (or) look for any other confirmation?

Thanks for you patience...
  • #57
  • Feb 28, 2017 6:18am Feb 28, 2017 6:18am
Quoting cescof
{quote} Could this entry be... a good trade in according with murraymath? Thanks Regards https://gyazo.com/a3522b15c2489eef62010294c85d5a2c
I would say yes, but I believe you could have gotten in at a much better price. Your chart shows that you bought when price bounced back higher than the -1/8 line, unless you were trying to catch the -1/8 bounce. If you look at the minute one chart you will see that price burst through the -1/8 line and bounced at the -2/8 line twice. I would have wait to first see if price bounced from the -1/8, and if it went through I would have surely taken the -2/8 bounce. Was your intention to enter at the -1/8 or -2/8 line?

Note: The first pink line shows the -1/8 level, and the second pink line shows the -2/8 level on the hourly time frame.
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  • #58
  • Feb 28, 2017 6:44am Feb 28, 2017 6:44am
Quoting rnsfrd
{quote} I would say yes, but I believe you could have gotten in at a much better price. Your chart shows that you bought when price bounced back higher than the -1/8 line, unless you were trying to catch the -1/8 bounce. If you look at the minute one chart you will see that price burst through the -1/8 line and bounced at the -2/8 line twice. I would have wait to first see if price bounced from the -1/8, and if it went through I would have surely taken the -2/8 bounce. Was your intention to enter at the -1/8 or -2/8 line? Note: The first pink line...
Thanks for answers... My intention was to enter at-2/8 level but with spread enter was in the middle... My mistake maybe is entry at second attempt and not before... Or not?
Regards
  • #59
  • Feb 28, 2017 6:46am Feb 28, 2017 6:46am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Rnsfrd, Reread the post again. Great Insights!!! Could you kindly help me in better understanding the following: {image} 1. Trading the 1st bounce: Highlighted in Red Does the bounce has to be a virgin?{for a lack of a better word} I mean, Within MM lines for a setting of 64 Periods, does the bounce has to the first time? In other words, do we only take the trade when we shouldn't be able to find a bounce off +/- 1/8 when we look back at previous 64 bars? (or) Can the bounce can be fresh? Example: The previous bounce was around 32 bars...
Hi aaven,

I'm as new to this system as anyone else is so what I say is just based off of what I have studied and examined this first week trading it.

1. The bounce does not have to be the first in the 64 periods. He stated that it should be the first for that session, preferably a New York or London session. First bounce for the day, not the week or month, or whatever period setting you choose.

2. This is very tricky and something I still struggle with when it comes to scalping. What happens if there is a strong reversal before price reaches the level. Let's say it comes within 1 pip of the level and then has reverses strongly? I would suggest to not re-enter the second time, and even worse do not enter the bounce after it has made a strong move. Even if price did not touch it, there was enough interest to sell at that level, and if you re-enter that interest might not be there since they already entered the trade. At the very least, I would not re-enter if all of this happened within a few minutes.

If you look at the chart I posted in my reply before this one, you see price ALMOST hit the -2/8 level and reverse strongly. A couple hours later it actually hit the -2/8 level and did not reverse nearly as strong, despite the fact that it was technically the first time it was hit. What happens here is that whoever is buying or selling during this point decided "price is close enough, I'll front run and buy/sell now even though the ideal price hasn't been hit." These buyers/and sellers are not there to push price the second time if it gets hit, so reversals have a lower chance. This is not to say that these reversals never happen, but the chance are reduced in my opinion.

3. This is tricky as well. What I look for is first, increased interest around a level, which can be shown by large bars leading to that level, or price whipping back and forth before that level. That signifies interest. As for the level itself, once I realize there is interest, I generally want to take trades where price stops or either goes through my level and starts to reverse.

Because what happens is, lets say price does not touch a level and starts to reverse. It very well could be a good idea to enter now, when price is 3-5 pips away from my desired level since it could go for another 10 pips, BUT what if price decides to reverse and hit the original level, well now I'm down 5 pips and price could go higher, to the next level. This has happened to me a lot. I have a fear about missing out on the reversal so I enter before it reaches my price. Then it turns out price reverses and reaches my original price. I could have gotten in at a better price but I did not wait, and the 5 pips that could have been profit are now drawdown.

I realize that not every set up is going to be ideal, and price is not always going to reach the level I want it to before reversing, but in my case, I'd rather wait for the ideal set up where price reaches, or goes through and then pulls back before entering.
  • #60
  • Feb 28, 2017 6:58am Feb 28, 2017 6:58am
Quoting cescof
{quote} Thanks for answers... My intention was to enter at-2/8 level but with spread enter was in the middle... My mistake maybe is entry at second attempt and not before... Or not? Regards
Ah, yeh GBPCHF spreads run high, which is why I've been trying to avoid them. Once you account for commissions and spread you're already down about 3 pips. But if your intention was to enter at the -2/8 level, I'd say that's good. I personally might have not taken it because there was an extremely strong reversal near that point an hour or so before, and you would notice that price did not pick up as fast the second time around when you entered, it stalled a little before. I wouldn't call it a mistake because it is the appropriate level to enter, I think it has to do with your risk tolerance. The post I linked before mentioned if you want to enter on a second bounce to perhaps reduce your lot size to compensate for the added risk.
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