Cycle analysis by Vri(audnzd),simple Trade

Here I try to use my commercial indicator(VRI) for analysis and trading.It is applied on the currency of AUDNZD and period of H1.
You can find VRI in here.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=642621

Here is the steps.

1. Generate the Cycle(Graph 1)
2. Analyse the Last Cycle(Graph 2)
3. Track the Impulse of Current Cycle(Graph 3)

First Trading analysis
Graph 1
Generate Cycle:Cycle line turns out where the VRI goes down through the Zero Line(Middle White Line)

https://charts.mql5.com/14/202/audnz...services-2.png

Graph 2-Graph 3

So the AUDNZD is in sub-trend of downside.

VRI Cycle analysis:

Sub-downtrend goes on.A potential negative impulse is on the way.But after that the current cycle will become last one.So close the short by the impulse.It is wise action.

The reference price is 1.0600,which is at the blue line in the graph above.

There are two impulses in Feb 24th.The former is positive and the latter is negative.The Heights of K-lines are similar.In details,VRI reflects different momentum of them.The negative one has more weight on the VRI than the positive one.
So the positive one may be not the trend of future.

To detail the positive impulse,we can gei into the M15 period.
There are three positive impulses nearby,which shows a "U",just as the graph 2 shows.In the same time of VRI window,curves get down through the three lines one by one.Or you can image that three positive impulses form a complete positive sub-trend,which looks like a weak one.
And now the price gets back to the position of first impulse.Is it time to get back to the main-trend?

Below is Graph 1 and graph 2.

We can do the same VRI cycle analysis.It shows a interesting cycle,which may show the future.

And the slide of AUDNZD at present is very important for its future trend.

Negative impulse has been done.Negative sub-trend is on its way.

Here price gets into the new cycle in H1 Period.New Analysis is needed.

1. Last cycle analysis.There are four positive impulses and four negative impulses.Positive impulses are almost at the same price level.The negative impulses presents down-stairs.And negative impulses lasted longer than positive impulses.Since the positive ones can't take down the Sub-central Line of Impulse,price will more likely go down in current cycle.
2. Current Cycle Analysis.Current cycle is just at the beginning.So we get into the shorter period,M15. Just as analysis of graph 3,conclusions can be drew in the followings.
   1. More volatile in current new cycle.You can also get that point in VRI.
   2. A impulse is on its way.It is more likely a negative one.
   3. The possibility of Downtrend is bigger than that of uptrend.
   4. 1.0600 is still a attractive price for buyer.

   
   
   

Down sub-trend is on for M15.
In H1 period,there are three impulses.Impulse A is the weakest one,which left no tracks on VRI of H4 period.
On the other hand,impulse A and impulse C turns up at the beginning of cycles.Impulse B is at the end of the cycle.So you can draw some conclusion.

1. Momentum of Impulse C is the biggest of the three.You can expect more than the impulse B.
2. Here is the sub-trend.You can expect longer trend than impulse A,or even B.But you can Expect much more.

We take a step into the M15,since price is starting new cycle.

1. Last cycle analysis.Price climbs up in that cycle with obvious down-try,whose volatility gets bigger.By BRI,you can notice it slightly climbs,which means consolidations.
2. Current cycle Analysis. There are two important impulses.One is down trough the low of long time and one is up through ex-high.And the latter covers the former.It shows more volatile price moving and implies the recent positive impulse can not be called the trend although its direction is the same as the main-trend.Since it is not the main trend,it is still in the sub-trend.So we can draw some conclusions.
   1. Price movement will be volatile,since the VRI of H4 is in down-trend.
   2. Recent two impulses just reflect the more volatile price.The upside movement may not be so solid than it appears.
   3. The price of 1.0720 is the beginning of the former negative impulse.Sub-trend will be safe before price goes through it.
   4. The positive impulse maybe consumes all its momentum.

Here a big impulses rose from the sharp dip.It gets through the Central line of the impulse A,which is the beginning of the last sub-downtrend.Sub-trend has been shut.
Here is the conclusions as followings:

1. Sub-trend has been shut.
2. Main-trend does not begin.You can see the impulse before the Impulse A.Its central line is almost same as the Impulse A.After that,the trend is fragile,just as that after impulse A.
3. Now price is in the wide wave after big shocks.
4. You can buy near 1.07140 before the breach of central line of Impulse B,which is at 1.0690.

Two things is needed to follow:

1. One impulse in H1 turns up as a negative one.But it stop above the BUY line,just as analysis in graph 1.So it can't be beginning of downtrend without other negative factors.
2. M15 cycle has been finished by a negative impulse.The Last cycle analysis shows a consolidation with upswing of H1 VRI. So the impulse can generate some aftershocks.Anyway,before another negative impulse causes VRI's sharp slide,you can feel safe in buy direction.

It is a important try of negative impulse.Now it is failure.Price now can in positive trend.

We can take a step into the M5 for the structure of VRI. Now there are some divergence or upswing of VRI. It may implies that Negative Impulses are fading.

Current cycle for H1 has stepped into the next half.The recent upswing of price took the VRI down trough the UP-level of 0.693.It perhaps show the future main-trend.
Here are some conclusions.

1. Before this cycle ends,price is in the consolidation of wide range.
2. Main-trend is up for big odds,which is proved in graph 2,to some extent.
3. Volatility will be more than the after-shocks.But do not put your hope on the solid up-trend in the cycle for the over-volatility of H4 VRI.

Here we can take further step into VRI.
We can see the followings:

1. M1 cycle analysis.In M1,we decompose the recent upswing band.We can see there are three consolidations.Each consolidation gives a upswing.And there are only one big positive impulse in that band.
2. In M15,VRI got down obviously only by price-rising.
3. It is better to bet rise than a decline.

Here we should check the impulses of the new cycle for H1.
In the graph below,last cycle shows us the central line B.And current cycle shows us the central line A.

1. We can see the recent upswing band goes over Line A and the up-level of last two impulses.
2. At the same time,the VRIs of H1 and M15 go down cross the Axis 0.It shows the uptrend of volatility.
3. The strategy we employed can play a good role here too,just as the graph.

Cycle Analysis for weeks.

1. In Daily Period,positive volatility.Price has gotten back to test the UP-LEVEL of Big Impusles and UP-LEVEL of recent Impulse.Now it is above these lines again.
   1. Attached Image (click to enlarge)

      
      

2. In H1 Period,Negative volatility.As the analysis above,the recent positive impulse got cross the up-level.But it is not so much successful since the VRI of H1 is not in persistence downtrend.Now the VRI has rebounded and may get up cross the AXIS 0 again.
   1. Attached Image (click to enlarge)

      
      

3. In shorter Period,we can see the negative impulses is on its way.
4. So next week you can take a care of LINE A for your trading.Above it is positive and below it is negative.
   1. Attached Image (click to enlarge)

      
      
   2. Attached Image (click to enlarge)